>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HLTH +32.1%, ARO +17.7%, (Aeropostale announces new cost reduction program; reiterates Q4 guidance for EPS of ($0.17)-(0.04) vs. ($0.12) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate), TREE +4.5%,ACST +4.5%, GM +4.4%, YUM +2.6%, ( discloses China December comps +1%), IRG +2%, (Ignite Restaurant announces Q4 prelim sales at $93.3 mln vs. $91.0 Capital IQ Consensus Est; Comparable Sales -2.9%), SYK +1.5%,PRGS +1.1%, SVU +1%, NEPT +0.8%

M&A news: CYBR +11.1% (Check Point Software (CHKP) in early-stage talks to acquire Cyber Ark, according to Haaretz), ORAN +0.9% (to acquire Airtel's subsidiaries in Burkina Faso and Sierra Leone)

Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: HMY +5.2%, X +4.9%, VALE +3.8%, RIO +3.6%, FCX +2.9%, MT+2.3%, BHP +1.8%, AA +1.5%

Select oil/gas related names showing strength: ETE +3.8%, WLL +3.5%, BP +2.1%, OAS +2%, RDS.A +0.9%,XOM +0.7%, PBR +0.6%

Other news: TTNP +33.3% (Titan Pharma and Braeburn Pharmaceuticals receive FDA recommendation for Probuphine),BIOL +10.9% (enters into a development and distribution agreement with IPG Photonics Corporation's (IPGP) medical laser division), MET +8.4% (MetLife plans to pursue the separation such as public offering, spin-off, or sale of a substantial portion of its U.S. Retail segment ), QUNR +7.5% (Ctrip.com announced it has agreed to make certain investments; investment entities will acquire a significant minority stake of Qunar Cayman Islands), ARNA +5.7% (Arena Pharm and Boehringer Ingelheim to conduct joint research to identify drug candidates targeting an undisclosed G protein-coupled receptor), NAT +5.1% (increases quarterly dividend to $0.43/share from $0.38/share), EURN +4.5% (modestly rebounding after recent decline), FEYE +4.2% (in symp with CYBR), SALT +4% (reports Scorpio Services Holding has purchased 338,436 common shares at an average price of $4.64 per share previous announcement on Oct 1, 2015), ARTX+3.6% (announced that its Training and Simulation Division has received $7.4 mln in new awards and contract modifications), AIG +3.1% (in symp with MET), SHPG +2.1% (cont strength), DKS +1.9% (The UK's Sports Direct discloses stakes in Dick's and Iconix Brand Group (ICON)), ERII +1.7% (announces $6 mln share repurchase program)

Analyst comments: LNG +3.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), PHM +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), MSFT +1.8% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley), QCOM +1.5% (upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna)

>>> Fed's Rosengren: (moderate, FOMC alternate): Only limited data support Fed's

Fed's Rosengren: (moderate, FOMC alternate): Only limited data support Fed's projected inflation path, FOMC's forecasted rate path has downside risks 
- Data raise the real possibility that US growth may be slowing. December US jobs report was pretty strong, but economy could still be slowing.
- A big dip in unemployment might call for quicker rate hikes, however inflation remains low.
- Would like to see more economic improvement so the Fed can keep raising rates- Growth needs to be at or above potential for the Fed to raise rates
- To remain highly attentive to developments in the global economy

>>> General Motors raises FY16 EPS guidance; FY15 on track; raises quarterly div

General Motors raises FY16 EPS guidance; FY15 on track; raises quarterly dividend 6% to $0.38; adds $4 bln to buyback
  • Co raises FY16 EPS to $5.25-5.75 vs $5.32 Capital IQ Consensus; sees improved EBIT, margin, adj. auto FCF. The company's 2016 outlook is based on a strong product launch cadence, growth in adjacent businesses, continued emphasis on driving core efficiencies across the enterprise, and expected modest global industry growth.
  • On-track to deliver double-digit growth in EBIT-adjusted and EPS-adjusted in calendar year 2015. Achieved its targeted 10-percent EBIT-adjusted margin in North America -- one year ahead of plan. Since announcing the initial share repurchase program in March 2015, the company repurchased 70 percent of the authorized program through the end of 2015, or $3.5 billion.
  • Co raises quarterly dividend 6% to $0.38/share.
  • Co increases buyback $4bln to $9 bln.
  • Co said continued execution of its plan should keep GM on track to achieve 9- to 10-percent EBIT-adjusted margin by early next decade.
  • GM also outlined several actions designed to improve the company's capital efficiency, resulting in a significant reduction in longer-term capital expenditures. GM continues to expect capital expenditures of 5- to 5.5-percent of revenues in the near-term.

(UBS) Oils & Gas : Top picks: BG/Royal Dutch, Eni and Galp.

Our top picks are BG/Royal Dutch Shell, Eni and GALP. Although not a top pick we are upgrading Total to Buy after the sell-off. Our absolute driven recommendations are now heavily weighted to Buy as we approach the bottom of the cycle. We are cutting OMV to Sell after its strong relative run places it on a stretched valuation.

Cutting oil price and gas price forecasts
We have cut our oil price forecast for the period 2016-19 and our LT normalised view to $75/bbl from $80/bbl. Near term forecasts reflect the sharp drop in prices in late 2015/early 2016 meaning recovery, which we expect to begin in 1H 2016, is formed from a lower base. The cut to the long-term price reflects more cost reduction than previously expected, pushing the cost curve down, but is mirrored in our company forecasts and hence has a negligible earnings effect. Our forecasts also include a lower Henry Hub view, reduced international gas pricing (primarily oil linked) but continued robust refining margins. The ferocity of this cycle will dissuade any company management from attempting to finesse their response and we anticipate another round of material cost cutting and capex reductions at 4Q which ultimately will address many of the performance and strategic issues which dogged the sector at >$100/bbl.

Summary of UBS Macro Forecasts

NYPost : Apple keeps close eye on potential Time Warner spinoff


Time Warner Inc. isn’t even on the block yet, but Apple is staying extra close to any possible movement on this front, The Post has learned.

The tech giant is among a handful of companies, all possible suitors of the entertainment company, which has recently come under pressure from activists to sell itself or spin off assets, sources familiar with the situation said Tuesday.

With Time Warner shares closing at $71.06 on Tuesday — well below the $85 offer from 21st Century Fox that its board rejected 18 months ago — the New York company is seen as a sitting duck among media companies because it, unlike its peers, doesn’t have a dual-class shareholder structure.

In addition to Apple, AT&T, which now owns DirecTV, is also seen as a possible Time Warner suitor, as is Fox, which Bloomberg noted would still make a good partner for the Jeff Bewkes-led company.

A Fox spokesperson declined to comment.

Apple is eyeing Time Warner’s assets to ease the launch of a stand-alone streaming TV service, a senior tech insider suggested on Tuesday.

Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple has struggled to create a skinny bundle of programming from existing content partners. A deal with Time Warner would give Apple most of what it needs: CNN news, Turner Sports and such hugely popular shows as “Game of Thrones” and “Sesame Street” from HBO — not to mention Warner Bros. movies and TV shows.

Eddy Cue, one of Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook’s top lieutenants, in charge of content deals, has been keeping tabs on proceedings at Time Warner, a source close to Apple said.

In May, Apple partnered with HBO to help it launch HBO Now, an Internet-delivered TV service, on Apple TV, a box that connects TVs to Web programming.

Reps for Apple and Time Warner declined comment.

Meanwhile, the pressure is growing on Bewkes to agree to a sale — or tame antsy shareholders and activist investors threatening a proxy fight.

Bewkes met investors in a series of closed-door meetings on Monday and Tuesday, telling them, according to sources familiar with the talks, that he’s against a sale or a spinoff of HBO — although he hinted a sale of his media giant could be entertained.

Splitting off HBO or the company’s Turner Broadcasting cable-TV division doesn’t make sense in a media world where, increasingly, scale matters, Bewkes said, according to people briefed on the meetings.

“Splitting up can destroy value,” he told an investor in one meeting, citing the breakup of Viacom as an example. Viacom shares have struggled since Chairman Sumner Redstone divided up his media empire a decade ago.

The Post reported Sunday that two of the media giant’s largest longtime investors are running out of patience and would support a sale or a breakup of the company.

Time Warner is worth $100 a share broken up — 40 percent more than its Tuesday close, according to one analyst.

As for Fox, BTIG analyst Rich Greenfield told The Post: “I continue to believe that a merger of the two is in both their best interests — no matter what management says.”

He added: “They would have the finance to do it. It would involve selling down satellite TV service BSkyB in the UK and may require other spinoffs.”

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
Gapping up: ARNA +19.1%, CYBR +12.1%, BIOL +10.9%, QUNR +8.4%, ICLD+6.2%, MET +5%, EURN +4.5%, TREE +4.5%, ACST +4.5%, ETE +3.6%, RIO+3%, HMY +3%, FEYE +2.9%, AA +2.3%, FCX +2.2%, YUM +2.1%, IRG +2%,DKS +1.9%, PBR +1.7%, BHP +1.6%, MSFT +1.6%, SHPG +1.5%, BP +1.5%,TWTR +1.4%, RDS.A +1.4%, TEX +1.3%, MT +1.2%, QCOM +1.2%, RBS+1.1%, CTCM +1.1%, PRGS +1.1%, AZN +1%, XOM +0.9%

Gapping down: FXCM -12.6%, TSCO -4.3%, F -3%, LYG -2.7%, CONN -2.3%,CSX -1.9%, EQY -1.6%, GDX -1.4%, ABX -1.3%, RACE -1.2%