>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: ERII +123.6%, ONE +36.7%, TMH +29.5%, TACO +13.6%, SNDK +7.8%, SONC +7%, YUM +5.4%, FLEX +4.9%, IHG +4.9%, GIG +4.3%, HSTM +3.7%, CE +2.4%, GOLD +2%, WTW +1.9%, ABX +1.9%, GDX +1.8%, MPAA +1.6%, YY +1.5%, SAP +1.3%, VLRS +0.8%, TRV +0.6%

Gapping down: RMBS -15.4%, NEOS -13.7%, HXL -8.3%, HOG -7.5%, ZGNX -7.4%, MSB -4.9%, IBM -4.8%, CLF -3.3%, MT -2.9%, BHP -2.5%, ETN -2.5%, WDC -1.9%, AZN -1.7%, TOT -1.6%, SGY -1.4%, WIBC -1.4%, BP -1.2%, RDS.A -1.1%, HA -1.1%, AMD -1%, SNY -1%, RIO -1%, VAR -0.9%, SIX -0.8%, ELS -0.6%, IEX -0.5%

WSJ : AmSurg Bids for Team Health Holdings

AmSurg Bids for Team Health Holdings
Bid for Team Health valued at $71.47 a share, or more than $5 billion; Team Health rebuffs offer

AmSurg Corp., a provider of outsourced physician services to hospitals and others, is seeking to combine with Team Health Holdings Inc. in an effort to gain scale amid a wave of consolidation in the health-care industry.
In an Oct. 12 letter to Team Health’s board, AmSurg Chief ExecutiveChristopher Holden proposed a stock-and-cash merger of the companies that would currently value Team Health at $71.47 a share, or more than $5 billion. Shareholders of Team Health would receive $11.49 a share in cash, according to a copy of the letter that was viewed by The Wall Street Journal.
The per-share price would represent a premium of 36% over Knoxville, Tenn.-based Team Health’s closing price of $52.50 Monday.
Team Health, which is seeking to complete an acquisition it announced in August, rebuffed the offer, according to people familiar with the matter. AmSurg, of Nashville, Tenn., now plans to go public with the offer in an effort to put pressure on Team Health to negotiate a deal. There is significant shareholder overlap between the two companies, which could aid in that effort, the people said.
Team Health officials couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.
The combined company’s ownership would be split 50-50 between the two sets of shareholders.
Each company currently has a market capitalization of about $3.8 billion, and combining them would create a major national provider of outsourced physician services, with a network of more than 1,200 hospitals and about 20,000 doctors. It would have a big presence in areas including anesthesia, emergency services, radiology and neonatology. AmSurg is a big player in so-called ambulatory surgery, with roughly 250 facilities that perform procedures that don’t require an overnight stay.

Consolidation waves have swept through both the hospital and health-insurance industries, part of a broader surge in deal making in health-care and other sectors of the economy in recent years. That has put pressure on companies like AmSurg to seek tie ups that will enable them to maintain the size and scope they need to keep up with customers, rivals and suppliers.
AmSurg expects that a combination with Team Health—which the resulting company would be named—would generate $200 million to $290 million in annual synergies, both from cost reductions and revenue enhancements.
Team Health in August agreed to buy another outsourced-services provider, IPC Healthcare Inc., for about $1.4 billion.
AmSurg is in favor of the deal and wants Team Health to complete it, but believes that financing it as part of a broader three-way merger could save between $100 million and $150 million because otherwise debt for the IPC deal would need to be refinanced, the people said.
“If you were not to engage with us now in a collaborative way, it could possibly sub-optimize the capital structure of a combination with AmSurg in the future—or worse—result in the loss of this opportunity completely,” the letter reads.
AmSurg believes that experience it gained from buying Sheridan Healthcare Inc. for about $2.3 billion 2014 would help it successfully meld the three companies, according to the letter.

>>> Omnicom beats by $0.02, beats on revs

Omnicom beats by $0.02, beats on revs
  • Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.97 per share, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.95; revenues fell 1.1% year/year to $3.71 bln vs the $3.65 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
    • The components of the change in revenue included an increase in revenue from organic growth of 6.1%, a marginal increase in revenue from acquisitions, net of dispositions and a decrease in revenue from the negative impact of foreign exchange rates of 7.2% when compared to the third quarter of 2014.
    • The change in organic revenue in the third quarter of 2015 as compared to the third quarter of 2014 in our four fundamental disciplines was as follows: advertising increased 9.9%, CRM increased 2.8% and specialty communications increased 5.4%, while public relations decreased 1.5%.

(HAndelsblatt) So Far, Adidas Untainted by Bribery Report


Adidas, which has close links to soccer governing body FIFA, faces allegations it helped Germany win the competition to host the 2006 World Cup. Yet the allegations, which it denies, have done little to dent its reputation or share price.

A few moments before kick-off in the 1970 World Cup final in Mexico between Brazil and Italy, Brazilian football legend Pelé asked the referee to wait before blowing the whistle because he had to tie his shoelaces. Millions of people watching the match on TV screens around the world saw a close-up of the shoe worn by the world’s best footballer — Puma’s “King” model.
The German sports equipment maker could not have dreamt of a better advert, and its national rival Adidas was livid, legend has it. The ploy marked the start of a soccer marketing war that continues to this day.
At first, the main combatants were Adidas and Puma. Later, Adidas did battle with U.S. competitor Nike.
They soon graduated from simple ploys such as Pelé’s lace-tying. In the early 1980s, Adidas founded the sports marketing company International Sport and Leisure, which nurtured close contacts with world soccer’s governing body, FIFA.
For years, ISL marketed the valuable broadcasting rights for the World Cup tournaments. Later it emerged that ISL managers had bribed leading sports officials for years.
ISL went bankrupt in 2001, but FIFA and Adidas still maintain close ties: Adidas is among FIFA’s five top sponsors and spends an estimated €30 million per year on its involvement with the organization.
There is a history of dubious ties between Adidas and sports officialdom.
That relationship has come under intense scrutiny following bribery allegations leveled by Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine, which suggested German soccer officials tapped a €6.7 million, or $7.6 million, slush fund in 2000 to buy votes for their successful bid to host the 2006 World Cup.
The money, Der Spiegel reported on Friday, had been loaned by the late Adidas chief executive Robert Louis-Dreyfus. Frankfurt’s state prosecutor said on Monday it would look into the allegations.
Der Spiegel said Mr. Louis-Dreyfus, acting in a private capacity, lent the money to the German bidding committee before the decision was taken to award the World Cup to Germany on July 6, 2000. The magazine said the loan never appeared in the budget of the bidding committee or of the subsequent World Cup organizing committee.
The report has been vehemently rejected by German soccer legend Franz Beckenbauer, head of the 2006 organizing committee, and Wolfgang Niersbach, the current president of the German Football Association (DFB). “There was no slush fund and no buying of votes,” Mr. Niersbach said on Monday. Adidas too said it was blameless and unaware of any such payment.
But there is a history of dubious ties between Adidas and sports officialdom. Mr. Louis-Dreyfus, who ran Adidas from 1993 until 2001, made a 15 million-mark (€7.67 million) loan guarantee to Uli Hoeness, the then-president of Bayern Munich football club, Germany’s largest. Mr. Hoeness used that money to play the stock market and later was sent to jail for tax evasion.
It’s never been established whether the money was part of a business deal or a corporate executive helping out a friend.
Adidas subsequently became a shareholder of FC Bayern AG, an unlisted company founded in 2001 for marketing, sponsoring and licensing the premier brand in German soccer.
The DFB and Adidas have been loyal team mates ever since West Germany won the 1954 World Cup in Switzerland, a seminal event in the history of the young post-war republic, desperate for a positive collective experience as the nation struggled to emerge from the rubble, the shame and the guilt of World War Two.
Ever since 1954, the DFB’s national strip has featured the three stripes of Adidas, powerful advertising for which the sports company pays €25 million per year. Soccer is key for Adidas because it’s the last sports bastion where it is still eye-to-eye with market leader Nike.
Robert Louis-Dreyfus was head of Adidas from 1993 to 2001. Source: Picture Alliance/Abaca

Last year Adidas generated €2.1 billion, or 15 percent of its total revenue, from sales of soccer strips and accessories.
The current chief executive of Adidas, Herbert Hainer, is a former protégé of Mr. Louis-Dreyfus and joined the company in 1987. He succeeded the Frenchman as head of Adidas in 2001. Mr. Hainer has always insisted that the company’s investment in FC Bayern, where it’s a shareholder alongside luxury carmaker Audi and insurer Allianz, was above board.
The Spiegel allegations that Germany bought FIFA votes to host the 2006 World Cup may have dealt Germany’s reputation for integrity a further blow just weeks after auto giant Volkswagen was forced to admit that it had fitted 11 million diesel cars with software designed to cheat emissions tests.
But unlike VW, which faces compensation claims from irate customers, the buyers of sports equipment seem untroubled by fraud allegations. In fact, they’re barely interested in such scandals.
Nike is a good example. The Oregon-based market leader remained loyal to U.S. cycling star Lance Armstrong for years even though he was suspected of doping. Nike only withdrew its support after Mr. Armstrong admitted he had doped.
Or there’s the case of Justin Gatlin. When the sprinter was banned from 2006 to 2010 for doping, Nike cancelled its contract with him. Now the American sprinter is back in the game and winning races, and Nike has returned as his sponsor — despite his troubled past.
Then there’s the case of Brazil. In 1996 Nike agreed a sponsorship deal with the Brazilian Football Confederation (CBF) worth $200 million over 10 years. All the money was supposed to be transferred straight to the CBF. But U.S. authorities found that $40 million was paid into the account of a go-between company which in turn paid half of that to an official within the CBF.
Such irregularities haven’t hampered Nike’s sprint to global market leadership. On the contrary, the brand with the swoosh has been growing at double-digit rates for years, is highly profitable and has just announced plans to boost revenues by two thirds in the next five years.

That might explain why Adidas has responded quite calmly to Der Spiegel’s allegations, even though sources at the company admit the report isn’t good for its reputation.
On the other hand, Adidas has been in the headlines for months because of its close connections with FIFA, which plunged into the biggest crisis of its 111-year history in May, when 14 soccer officials and sports marketing executives were indicted in the United States on bribery, money laundering and wire fraud charges involving more than $150 million in payments.
But the connection hasn’t hurt Adidas sales. A few days ago, Mr. Hainer said: “Adidas is really buzzing.”
That might explain why Adidas shareholders weren’t panicking on Monday. The stock fell a modest 0.3 percent following the new revelations. They’ve increased by a third this year.

(GS) Deutsche Telekom, up to BUY - Conviction Buy List - 30% upside

Improving visibility on a doubling of FCF by 2020; up to Buy, onto CL

Source of opportunity
We upgrade DT to CL-Buy from Neutral given increased visibility into its
potential to double FCF by 2020 (to >€9 bn). Our industry report published
today (Future of Fixed: The incumbent catch-up) shows how new
technologies are set to dramatically improve fixed-line access speeds over
copper. This will gradually stem the pace of DT’s domestic share loss to
cable and, in a rational market, should support a return to modest service
revenue growth without a material increase in capex. With further LT costcutting
in Germany (equivalent to 15% of current domestic EBITDA) and
strong momentum at TMUS, we forecast a 17% FCF CAGR to 2020.

Catalyst
DT’s YTD outperformance (c.10% vs. the SXKP) can be entirely explained by
the increased value of its 66% stake in TMUS. However, relative to its peers
we argue ‘core’ DT has also become more attractive: the CMD outlined new
long-term cost cutting potential (c.€1.3 bn by the early 2020s in Germany),
and it is not materially exposed to increased regulatory uncertainty on
consolidation. 3Q results are likely to be in-line with consensus, with quadplay
discounts continuing to weigh on domestic mobile (but aiding KPIs);
however our updated estimates are 4% / 10% above company-compiled
consensus EBITDA / FCF in 2016, driven by ongoing TMUS outperformance.
We are not concerned about the upcoming US spectrum auction in 1H16 –
while TMUS could spend c.$8-10 bn, we note the perpetual spectrum rights
gained are neutral to FCF and significantly accretive to mid-term growth.

Valuation
We raise our 12-month ROIC-based price target to €20 from €18.3, as we
reflect improved visibility in a higher perpetual growth rate. At our target,
DT would trade at 5.5% proportionate 2017E FCF yield / 3.5% dividend yield.

Key risks
Downside risks include competition / regulation in all markets, capital
discipline in potential long-term pan-Euro consolidation, and FX.

NY Post : Shares soar as Oprah buys 10% stake in Weight Watchers

Oprah Winfrey made a fat investment in Weight Watchers on Monday, feeding the struggling diet company a gut-busting, scale-tipping boost on Wall Street.
The billionaire talk-show queen, co-owner of the OWN TV network, is shelling out $43.2 million to eat up a 10 percent stake in the New York-based company.
And investors gorged themselves on the deal.
Weight Watchers’ stock closed at $6.79 a share Friday and at $13.92 Monday, a 105 percent jump.
Winfrey, 61, has publicly struggled for years to control her waistline and credits Weight Watchers for putting her on a healthy path.
“Weight Watchers has given me the tools to begin to make the lasting shift that I and so many of us who are struggling with weight have longed for,” Winfrey said.
“I believe in the program so much I decided to invest in the company and partner in its evolution.”
Weight Watchers and others in the weight-loss business, such as Jenny Craig, Slim-Fast and Atkins, have struggled to stand out amid a changing health landscape.
With more dietary advice available online, it’s getting harder for such companies to win customers.
And tech companies are eating into profits now that people can use activity-tracking gadgets like the Fitbit to stay in shape.
“We are expanding our purpose from focusing on weight loss alone to more broadly helping people lead a healthier, happier life,” said Weight Watchers President and CEO Jim Chambers.
Still, Wall Street was bullish.
“We view this partnership as a game changer for [Weight Watchers] given Winfrey’s significant media presence,” Morgan Stanley & Co. analyst Dara Mohsenian said.
Weight Watchers’ profits have spiked with endorsements from celebs like Jennifer Hudson and Jessica Simpson. But Winfrey’s fame could keep profits rising this time.
“We would argue that Winfrey’s more global reach and long-term involvement . . . is likely to yield outsized results versus typical campaigns,” Mohsenian said.
Morningstar equity analyst R. J. Hottovy also hailed the deal but warned against going whole hog, noting Winfrey’s limited appeal among Gen-Xers and millennials.
“It’s unclear how the company plans to bolster its brand positioning with a younger audience,” Hottovy said.

(Jefferies) French Telco : Addicted to a Discount

Key Takeaway
We preview results for BYG/NUM-SFR/ORA, also publishing updated models.
3Q15 was another heavily promotional quarter with NUM-SFR visibly more
active in mobile. But this fight-back may not have gained much traction,
judging from BYG/ORA confidence. Being on the wrong end of polarised
operating trends in French Mobile is not sustainable for Free or NUM-SFR. We
discuss why and how Nov's spectrum auction could be a catalyst for change.

3Q15 was another heavily promotional quarter for French Telecoms with NUMSFR
visibly more active in mobile. Repairing commercial momentum is a priority for NUMSFR,
which saw its postpaid base shrink 7% in 1H15 yet aims to stabilise revenue in 2016.
Free's decision to raise the 4G data limit on its €19.99 plan to 50GB in Sept may have had
limited effect on 3Q15 volumes. But in conceding the opportunity to price subs up to higher
data tiers, Free is signalling that a bigger opportunity lies in grabbing market share as 4G
capabilities improve. There is plenty to aim for with only 22% of French subs migrated to 4G
so far and 61% out-of-contract. Confident signals from BYG/ORA suggest trends remained
polarised in their favour during 3Q15. But the mobile oligopoly looks unstable, in our view.

NUM-SFR (Hold, PT €45) reports on 28 Oct. At the 2Q15 results, mgmt. claimed to
have 'launched the commercial machine'. This has been reflected in relentless promotions
throughout 3Q, with a heavy focus on mobile. Having discounted certain SFR-branded plans
in July, the focus switched to RED for the 'back-to-school' period. RED's high-profile 3GB/
unlimited SMS/unlimited minutes plan (normally €19.99/month) was halved in price. By
mid-Sept, attention had switched back to SFR where iPhone prices were trimmed. That
reversed again in early Oct, when RED discounts returned with a permanent doubling of
data allowances on (previously) 3GB and 5GB plans. Disconnection volumes deteriorated
between 1Q and 2Q, both in postpaid mobile and FBB. We suspect that customer trends
will have remained weak in 3Q15. NUM-SFR is likely to assert again that its exit run-rate was
better than the quarter as a whole. We believe that NUM-SFR's ability to bid aggressively in
next month's spectrum auction may now be constrained by the combination of the €2.5bn
special dividend announced last week and tighter credit market conditions.

Bouygues (Buy, PT €45) reports on 13 Nov. Mgmt's confident tone at the 6 Oct investor
day suggests to us that BYG has felt little impact from NUM-SFR's commercial 're-launch' so
far. We observe that BYG ran aggressive mobile promotions in the 'back-to-school' but did
not feel obliged to extend these to the end of 3Q. However, we think BYG should remain
watchful, particularly in FBB where its 78k net adds in 2Q15 combined with those of Free
(46k) were the mirror image of the 119k net losses that NUM-SFR reported. If/when NUMSFR
can stem its FBB churn, BYG's own fixed revenue growth would be threatened since this
currently relies on heavy intake volumes to compensate for pricing below the back-book
ARPU. Nonetheless 2015 should be the low-point for group FCF, which could expand to
€708m pre-spectrum in 2016 (vs. €70m 2015e) restoring dividend coverage.

ORA (Buy, PT €18), which reports on 22 Oct, is for now gliding above the worst of the
trench warfare, benefiting from a widespread perception for 4G network quality (a notion
more sharply perceived among consumers in France than in most other European countries)
and the retail win-back opportunity presented by its ability to plough resources into FTTH
deployments in ‘very dense’ areas where retail FBB market share is as low as 20-25%.

(Challenges) Viols d'embargos: 800 millions de dollars d'amende pour Crédit Agri

Viols d'embargos: 800 millions de dollars d'amende pour Crédit Agricole

La banque française Crédit Agricole a accepté de payer 800 millions de dollars aux autorités américaines pour clore les enquêtes de régulateurs sur des violations d'embargos contre l'Iran et le Soudan.

La banque française Crédit Agricole a accepté de payer 800 millions de dollars aux autorités américaines pour clore les enquêtes de régulateurs sur des violations d'embargos contre l'Iran et le Soudan, a indiqué lundi 19 octobre à l'AFP une source proche du dossier. Cet accord pourrait être annoncé dès mardi ou cette semaine, a ajouté sous couvert d'anonymat cette source, ajoutant que les deux parties sont tombées d'accord sur tous les points du compromis. Les autorités concernées sont le département de la Justice (DoJ), le régulateur des services financiers de New York (DFS), la Réserve fédérale (Fed) et le département du Trésor.

Contacté par l'AFP, le DFS s'est refusé à tout commentaire. Crédit Agricole n'a pas répondu dans l'immédiat aux sollicitations de l'AFP.

L'accord devrait être un "deferred prosecution agreement", c'est-à-dire un arrangement selon lequel la banque reconnaît des éléments et s'engage à ne plus commettre d'infractions similaires. Elle devrait promettre de renforcer dans ce cadre ses procédures de contrôle. En échange, les autorités devraient renoncer à la poursuivre au pénal. La banque mutualiste devrait échapper ainsi, selon la source, à un "plaider coupable" et n'aurait pas à requérir des dispenses spécifiques pour continuer à exercer certaines activités, comme gérer des actifs pour les fonds de pension.

Une affaire moins importante que pour BNP

Plusieurs banquiers impliqués dans les transactions litigieuses ont quitté la banque, un seul est encore en place et devrait partir incessamment, d'après cette même source. Les autorités américaines accusent Crédit Agricole d'avoir transféré des milliards de dollars pour le compte d'entités soumises à des sanctions américaines en profitant d'une faille juridique aux États-Unis. L'enquête s'est concentrée sur des pays comme le Soudan, Cuba et l'Iran et sur des opérations qui auraient été effectuées entre 2003 et 2008, selon ces sources.

Fin septembre, des sources américaines avaient indiqué à l'AFP que les antennes londonienne, parisienne, singapourienne et genevoise de Crédit Agricole CIB, la banque de financement et d'investissement du groupe, étaient concernées. En 2014, BNP Paribas avait elle dû s'acquitter d'une amende de près de neuf milliards de dollars et avait plaidé coupable pour régler son litige concernant les embargos économiques américains.

Toutefois, l'ampleur des faits reprochés à Crédit Agricole, qui a coopéré dès le départ, selon une autre source proche du dossier, était jugée moins importante que ce qui était reproché à sa compatriote. Une autre banque française, Société Générale, est également soupçonnée de violations d'embargos par les Etats-Unis et les négociations se poursuivent, a indiqué lundi à l'AFP une source proche des discussions. SocGen a mis de côté 1,3 milliard d'euros à fin juin pour de possibles amendes liées aux scandales dans lesquels elle est impliquée.

(UBS) Saint Gobain : More risks than perceived, downgrade to Sell

More risks than perceived, downgrade to Sell

More emerging market and US industrial exposure than perceived
We think there are some risks potentially pressuring St Gobain in the coming quarters.
While emerging markets account for only 19% of sales, they represent 30% of
operating profits with the main exposures into Latam (Brazil), Asia (India, China) and
Eastern Europe. Around 20% of operating profit comes from the US, but within that
we estimate c40-50% comes from industrial exposures (mainly in HPM) where recent
data points have indicated a slowdown. France remains the key area of upside in due
course, however recent data points (housing starts, permits, Q3 cement volumes) show
little evidence of end market turn-around for now.

Cutting EPS by -5%, 2016E operating profit >10% below consensus
We cut our 2015E EPS by -2% and thereafter by c-5% p.a. 2016E consensus of
c€3.1bn operating profit is too optimistic in our view, and implies c+16% organic
operating profit growth, incorporating a c-2% headwind from FX next year (based on
current spot rates). Considering global growth dynamics we think c+5% organic
operating profit growth is more appropriate, which puts our 2016E operating profit at
slightly below €2.8bn, >10% below consensus and EPS c-20% below consensus.
Consensus estimates imply >15% LFL operating profit growth in 2016E, which we
believe is highly unrealistic.

Q3 sales due 28th October
St Gobain will release Q315 sales aftermarket on 28th October. We expect LFL sales
growth of +1.4% (after Q2 +2.1%) and total sales growth of +3.4% y/y. We see FX
still delivering a tailwind of +2.2%, but lower than H1 (+4.6%). We expect France to
continue to decline albeit at a lower pace than H1, emerging markets to slow after a
robust showing in H1 (+4.8% y/y LFL), North America to grow but held back by the
industrial exposure and the rest of Europe to continue to grow around 2%.

Valuation: Sell, €36 PT (from €41)
Our PT is based on DCF, utilising LT normalised EBIT margins of 8.7%. At our PT the
shares would trade on 15x 2016E P/E including the expected accretion from Sika which
we include from 2017E.