>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: China airlines soar on consolidation rumors; Hyundai Motor falls on earnings miss; CBA joins Westpac with mortgage rate hike


***Economic Data***
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 0 V 4 PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS M/M: +2.1% V -1.5% PRIOR
- (TW) Taiwan Sept Unemployment rate Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.8%e
- (CN) China Sept YTD State-owned Enterprises (SOE) profits CNY1.74, -8.2% y/y v -6.6% prior, Rev CNY33.1T, -6.1% y/y v -5.9% prior
- (BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (BCB) LEAVES SELIC TARGET RATE UNCHANGED AT 14.25%, (as expected)

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.1%, S&P/ASX flat, Kospi -0.6%, Shanghai Composite +0.2%, Hang Seng -0.8%, Dec S&P500 +0.3% at 2,015

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Dec gold -0.1% at $1,165/oz, Dec crude oil +0.5% at $45.44/brl, Dec copper +0.1% at $2.36/lb
- GLD: Goldman Sachs sees Gold prices around $1,000/oz in the next 12 months
- (JP) Japan investors bought net ¥492B in foreign bonds v bought ¥1.1T in prior week; Foreign investors sold net ¥29.3B in Japan stocks v bought ¥524B in prior week
- JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.30T in 2-yr JGBs; Avg yield: 0.011% v 0.010% prior; bid to cover: 4.20x v 3.71x prior
- (CN) PBoC to inject CNY20B in 7-day reverse repos (32nd consecutive injection); Drains net CNY45B this week v drained CNY70B prior (2nd week of drain)

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Asian indices are mixed in the absence of sweeping macro themes, though several individual company developments are influencing their regional markets. Late in the day, Australia markets are responding to a large ripple from CBA, which followed Westpac's 20bp move by hiking variable mortgage rates by 15bps to help offset the balance sheet impact of higher capital requirements. Investors speculate the RBA would then seek to counteract those steps with a policy easing sometime this year, sending AUD/USD down over 40pips below 0.7190, 3-year bond yield down 3bps below 1.83%, and S&P/ASX to session highs up 0.3% above 5,260.

- Separately in Australia, Q3 NAB Business Confidence came in flat, and resident economist said the "the quarterly survey confirms the trend improvement in current conditions in the non-mining economy, while the outlook is also looking notably better". Also of note down under, NZ Fin Min English said China consumer outlook is positive and will offer tailwinds to New Zealand economy, helping NZD/USD bounce some 70pips above 0.6780.

- China's anticipated SOE reform has long been considered as a positive for the markets in expectation of producing consolidation in key industries. Today, airline stocks are soaring on reports of potential merger between China Southern Airlines and Air China - those names are each up about 7%. Also in China, the PBoC drained liquidity from the system for the 2nd straight week by CNY45B, albeit a smaller move relative to last week's CNY70B.

- In Japan, the BOJ quarterly senior loan officer survey saw household demand index and local govt demand index fall to flat from 7 and 6 respectively. The data follows yesterday's troubling trade figures and further underscores the risk of a technical recession in Japan with another GDP decline in Q3. Japan LDP party tax official also reportedly met with his Komeito counterpart to further discuss the number of items falling into reduced tax rate category when consumption tax is raised to 10% in Apr 2017.

- Korea's Hyundai Motors fell in afternoon trade after Q3 profits missed expectations with Net KWR1.2T v KRW1.5Te and Op profit KRW1.5T v KRW1.57Te. China vehicle sales were especially pronounced, falling 9%, while US sales rose nearly 4%. Hynix also disappointed on Q3 profit with Net KRW1.05T v KRW1.09Te and also lowered 2015 DRAM shipment target to low or mid 20% from mid 20%s.

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- TXN: Reports Q3 $0.76 v $0.67e, R$3.43B v $3.28Be; +9.4% afterhours
- EBAY: Reports Q3 $0.43 v $0.41e, R$2.11B v $2.10Be; +8.4% afterhours
- CIT: Announces Strategic Initiatives Designed to Further Its Transition to a U.S. Commercial Bank; exploring alternative for some assets; +5.1% afterhours
- KORS: Greenlight Capital (Einhorn) takes new position in KORS and UIL - investor letter; +4.3% afterhours
- WFT: Reports Q3 -$0.22 v -$0.11e, R$2.24B v $2.32Be; +4.1% afterhours
- URI: Reports Q3 $2.57 v $2.35e, R$1.55B v $1.56Be; +3.8% afterhours
- LVS: Reports Q3 $0.66 v $0.63e, R$2.89B v $2.97Be; Board raises quarterly dividend 10.8% to $0.65/shr (imp yield 5.6%); +3.5% afterhours
- STX: Raises quarterly dividend by 17% to $0.63 (implied yield 6.8%); +1.3% afterhours
- AXP: Reports Q3 $1.24 v $1.31e, R$8.19B v $8.38Be; -3.8% afterhours
- CYH: Reports prelim Q3 R$4.85B v $4.95Be, Adj EBITDA $661M v $750M y/y, Net income $121M v $133M y/y; -14.1% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Sands China 1928.HK -0.9% (Q3 result); China Southern Airlines Co 600029.CN +7.2%, Air China 601111.CN +6.6% (merger speculation); Wumart Stores Inc 1025.HK +71.3% (parent to buyout)
- Consumer staples: Foshan Haitian Flavoring & Food Co 603288.CN +3.8% (9-month result)
- Financials: WesFarmers Limited WES.AU +0.3% (Q1 result)
- Industrials: BAIC Motor Corp 1958.HK -6.9% (9-month result); Samsung Engineering Co 028050.KR -17.4% (Q3 result, new share sales); Nidec Corp 6594.JP +1.7% (H1 result); IHI Corp 7013.JP -7.1% (H1 result)
- Technology: TCL Corp 000100.CN -0.3%(9-month result); Acer 2353.TW +1.8% (develops new electric vehicle); Hynix Semiconductor 000660.KR -4.0% (Q3 result); FujiFilm Holdings 4901.JP -4.3% (H1 result speculation)
- Materials: China National Building Material Co 3323.HK -4.9% (profit warning); Zijin Mining 2899.HK -4.0% (9-month result); China Minmetals Resources 1208.HK -1.2% (Q3 result); Hyundai Steel Co 004020.KR -1.3% (Q3 result); South32 Limited S32.AU +2.6% (Q1 result)
- Energy: Huadian Power International Corp 1071.HK +1.1% (deal with BP); Oil Search OSH.AU +1.4% (raises guidance); Santos STO.AU +17.1% (rejects Scepter Partners' proposal); APA Group APA.AU +1.5% (affirms guidance)
- Healthcare: Australian Pharma API.AU -2.3% (FY15 result)
- Telecom: China Mobile Ltd 941.HK -3.0% (9-month result)
- Utilities: China Power International 2380.HK +1.9% (9-month power generation)

>>> US Close Dow-0.28% S&P-0.58% Nasdasq-0.84% Russell-1.58%


Closing Market Summary: S&P 500 Registers Second Consecutive Decline

The stock market ended Wednesday on a lower note after enduring a shaky session. The S&P 500 lost 0.6% after failing to overtake its 100-day moving average (2,038) for the second day in a row. Just like yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%) underperformed while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) displayed relative strength.

Equities began the day with modest gains, but the S&P 500 notched its high during the opening minutes of the session and returned to its flat line in short order. The index traded just above the unchanged level into the afternoon, but slid to lows shortly after 13:00 ET. The S&P 500 staged a late charge to its flat line, but could not overtake that level, dropping to a new low instead.

Although the market spent another day inside a relatively narrow range (21 S&P points), the same could not be said about the health care sector, which ended lower by 0.9% after showing a 1.0% gain at the start that briefly morphed into a 2.5% decline. The intraday volatility was brought on by a swoon in the biotech space after Citron Research published a report on Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX 118.61, -28.13), calling into question the company's relationship with Philidor RX, which is a specialty pharmacy. According to Citron, Valeant appears to have created a network of specialty pharmacies modeled after Philidor, whose purpose was to generate phantom sales of VRX products. Shares of Valeant were down nearly 40.0% during afternoon action, but they narrowed their loss to 19.2% after a brief trading halt was lifted. Valeant responded to Citron's allegations during the trading halt, calling them "erroneous." It is worth noting that the afternoon rebound was aided by comments from fund manager Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management who told CNBC that his fund bought an additional two million shares in VRX today. As for the remainder of the biotech space, the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 304.48, -1.48) ended off its low, but still surrendered 0.5%. Notably, Biogen (BIIB 276.34, +10.53) spiked 4.0% after the company beat estimates, raised its guidance, and announced a restructuring plan.

Similar to the health care sector, energy (-1.0%), materials (-0.9%), and technology (-0.8%) ended among the laggards while most of the remaining sectors fared a bit better. The top-weighted technology sector settled behind the broader market, which masked a 0.2% uptick in the PHLX Semiconductor Index after SanDisk (SNDK 76.78, +1.59) agreed to be acquired by Western Digital (WDC 71.44, -3.42) for $86.50/share. Shares of SanDisk jumped 2.1% while another index component—KLA-Tencor (KLAC 63.98, +10.12)—surged 18.8% after agreeing to be acquired by Lam Research (LRCX 70.79, +0.76) for $67.02/share.

On the upside, the industrial sector (+0.1%) displayed relative strength throughout the day thanks to a 1.6% gain in Boeing (BA 141.19, +2.31) after the Dow component reported better than expected results and boosted its guidance.

Unlike stocks, Treasuries advanced into the afternoon, holding the bulk of their gains into the close with the 10-yr yield sliding four basis points to 2.03%.

Today's participation was in line with average as more than 830 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor. Economic data was limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, which jumped 11.8% to follow last week's 27.6% plunge.

Tomorrow, weekly Initial Claims (consensus 265,000) will be released at 8:30 ET while the August FHFA Housing Price Index will cross the wires at 9:00 ET. Also of note, September Leading Indicators (consensus -0.1%) and Existing Home Sales (expected 5.39 million) will be reported at 10:00 ET.

  • Nasdaq Composite +2.2% YTD
  • S&P 500 -1.9% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -3.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -4.9% YTD

>>> US Gapping up


Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
: ISRG +8.1%, ARMH +6.4%, LAD +5.9%, BABY +5.2%, ZIXI +4.7%, GM +3.3%, MANH +2.7%, CB +2.4%, BA +2.2%, CREE +2%, DFS +1.4%, ABB +1.2%, ILMN +0.6%, OC +0.6%

M&A news: KLAC +16.5% (KLAC to be acquired by LRCX for value of ~$67.02/share, or ~$10.6 bln), SNDK +5.3% (SanDisk to be acquired by Western Digital for $86.50/share, or ~$19 bln), IM +0.5% (agreed to acquire Brazil-based Grupo ACAO; expects $300 mln in annual value-add solutions revs, and be modestly accretive to 2016 FY non-GAAP EPS)

Select oil/gas related names showing strength: BP 1.8% (still checking), RDS.A 1.7% (still checking), TOT 1.5% (still checking)

Other news: XOMA +17% (Novartis acquires Admune Therapeutics and licensing agreements with Palobiofarma and XOMA Corp), KERX +8.9% (The Baupost Group disclosed 34.61% active stake in 13D filing; private placement was previously announced on October 15), EPAX +5.4% (approves an initial liquidating distribution of $2.85/share), ALLT +5.2% (receives a Q4, $10 million expansion order from a Tier-1 mobile operator), WTW +3.8% (cont strength), BWINA +3.4% (appointed Steven A. Shapiro as Executive Chairman of the Board), MT +2.7% (in symp with BHP), FIT +1.8% (still checking), BHP +1.6% (provided operational review for quarter ended Sept 30, 2015: Petroleum production declined 4% from prior year to 65 MMboe), ASML +1.2% (in symp with ARMH), F +1.1% (in symp with GM), RIO +1% (in symp with BHP)

Analyst comments: EXAS +3.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at a boutique firm)

>>> US Gapping down


Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
: PSO -16.4%, VMW -11.3%, (EMC and VMware announce plans to form a new cloud services business, by combining their respective cloud capabilities under the Virtustream brand), BDR -8.2%, (thinly traded, says it continued to experience lower than anticipated sales during Q3, liquidity position has not improved), CMG -7.3%, WSCI -6%, IRBT -5.1%, CLS -3.2%, EMC -2.6%, CS -2%, YHOO -1.6%, NTRS -1.5%, IBKR -1%, PII -0.9%, RUSHA -0.8%, CSL -0.6%, FTI -0.5%, KO -0.4%

M&A news: LRCX -3.6% (KLAC to be acquired by LRCX for value of ~$67.02/share, or ~$10.6 bln), WDC -2.6% (SanDisk to be acquired by WDC for $86.50/share, or ~$19 bln; also reported earnings)

Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SBGL -1.6%, HMY -1.5%, GFI -1.4%, SLV -0.8%

Other news: SNTA -59.3% (terminates Phase 3 GALAXY-2 trial of ganetespib and docetaxel), FWM -2.6% (following intraday spike higher on increased volume--ended the day +30%), EMC -2.6% (EMC and VMware announce plans to form a new cloud services business, by combining their respective cloud capabilities under the Virtustream brand), HSBC -2% (in symp with CS), GBSN -1.6% (received a notice from Nasdaq for non-compliance with the exchange's minimum market cap and $1 minimum price bid standards), JD -1.6% (Shanghai -3.1% overnight), AMD -1% (S&P downgraded Advanced Micro Devices to 'CCC+' from 'B-' on weak operating performance; Outlook Negative), QIHU -0.8% (Shanghai -3.1% overnight), DB -0.8% (in symp with CS)

Analyst comments: HOG TWTR -4% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley), MU -1% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill), -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan)

>>> MS cuts Twitter to underweight, slashes PT by a third - RTRS |



(note attached) 

BUZZ-Morgan Stanley cuts Twitter to "underweight", slashes PT by a third

21-Oct-2015 10:45:09

** Twitter TWTR.K cut to "underweight" at Morgan Stanley

** Broker takes knife to PT on stock, slashes it by a third to $24 making it the lowest on the Street, according to StarMine

** MS continues to see limited growth and declining user engagement

** Broker says Twitter could be hitting a ceiling for ad load -- advertising as a pct of total content a user may see. MS estimates that adjusted for time spent Twitter's ad load is already 10x higher than Facebook FB.O

** Still too early to say if co's latest offering -- "Moments" -- will fix user engagement issues, MS says

** Twitter shares off 4.4 pct in light US premarket trading

** As of Tuesday's close, shares had risen more than 25 pct from the post-IPO closing low on Oct 1

>>> Vallourec 'vulnerable' to takeover; banks working on several options, includ

(Released Yesterday) - full article attached

Vallourec 'vulnerable' to takeover; banks working on several options, including recapitalisation by Nippon Steel and Bpifrance 

Vallourec [EPA:VK], the French tubing services company, is understood to have become 'very vulnerable' to a potential takeover as its market capitalisation fell to EUR 1.3bn today (October 21), compared with EUR 11bn in previous years, French newsletter WanSquare reported.

The unsourced report said the French government and 'private' parties are monitoring the situation. Several investment banks are working on numerous scenarios, including a recapitalisation from existing shareholders Nippon Steel [TYO:5401], the Japan-based steel company, and Bpifrance, the French sovereign fund, which control 1.3% and 5.3% of Vallourec, respectively, the report added.

The report claimed that a potential takeover could become urgent given the situation of the market that Vallourec is operating in and potential interest from foreign buyers.

The report noted, however, that a reserve capital increase would require a large round of share issuance, which would dilute existing shareholders' stakes and be at a lower price than the current share price, which is currently down 57% compared with the beginning of 2015.

Vallourec employees hold 7.61% of the company and paid much more than current market prices for their shareholdings, the report went on to say.

WanSquare