TheChek News Flow

* Source of opportunity

Orange offers a compellingly priced organic growth opportunity, in our

view, with a potential boost from consolidation. At 4Q15 results, it sustained

growth for the second consecutive quarter following six years of decline.

French top-line trends are improving and will inflect to growth during 2016,

in our view. With ongoing cost-cutting, we model Group sales/EBITDA

+1.5%/+4.1% 2016-20E CAGR. French consolidation discussions continue,

and could potentially boost Group EBITDA growth by 1-2 pp pa. Today’s call

reassured on capital discipline risk; Orange ruled out pan-European

consolidation for "many years", focusing on small-scale in-footprint deals.

1) French consolidation - management updated that Bouygues Telecom

deal discussions are ongoing with "good momentum". We see a strong

valuation accretion opportunity from the deal, which would consolidate the

fixed and mobile markets. We estimate €8-10 bn NPV benefits from lower

market churn driving sustained margin expansion and EBITDA growth. 2)

Number upgrades - we forecast EBITDA +3% in 2016 (adjusted for Jazztel),

and our 2016/17 EBITDA forecasts are +2.2%/+3.6% vs. company consensus.

Key driver is France, where Orange has built a premium position in a benign

competitive market, with ARPU growth still compounded by cost-cutting.

Capex is €150 mn higher in 2016 than consensus expected. But this is spent

mainly on French fibre, which is already driving improving returns. Orange

will use low-cost new technologies in rural areas (45% of population).

Orange trades on a 9.8% 2017E FCF yield offering a compelling valuation

even before French consolidation, in our view. Our ROIC-based 12m PT

rises to €22.2 (from €20.9) with our target multiple increasing to reflect a

more constructive view on consolidation benefits.

French deal talks collapse, competition in all markets.

ML

AUTO TRADER - Expects double digit growth for year.We raise ests by 2%....+3%

N. HYDRO - Beat. U/L EBIT NOK1.57b. Big beat in Bauxite/Alumina...........+2%

KUNGSLEDEN - Q4 rental revs increase to SEK659m, proposes SEK2 divi.......+2%

ROLLERS - FT says RR preparing to back ValueAct for Board seat..........+1/2%

DSM - Q4 EBITDA €261m,1.5% beat.Guidance in line w/ last Nov strategy.....+1%

ROCHE - FDA grants breakthrough designation to Ocreluzimab (MS)...........+1%

AMUNDI - We UPGRADE TO BUY, PO €45 post 10% de-rating YTD.................+1%

GLENCORE - Early refinancing of RCF. $7.7bn commitments signed............+1%

CRED AG - Headline beat on lower tax, clean PBT 5% miss. Capital 10.7% CET+1%

EURONEXT - In line.Delay to strategy update * high costs will disappoint..+1%

SCHNEIDER - Beat.Org growth good.Margins higher but FX headwinds persist..U/C

AZKO/BASF - Akzo agreed offer for BASF's industrial coatings biz - €475m..U/C

SMITH & NEPHEW - FT: JNJ is the more likely acquirer for S+N,nothing new..U/C

BAE - BAE/Gen Dynamics Awarded US Navy Contracts $2.55bn by 2021..........U/C

AGEAS - Disappointing.Key numbers miss,flattered by higher cap gains......-1%

BEIERSDORF - FY15 in line, guidance cautious for sales growth 3-4% vs 4%..-1%

NORMA - Org growth solid,margins soft at 16.4% citing normal seasonailty-1/2%

PUBLICIS - Big account loss as MediaVest loses Walmart account..........-1/2%

EUTELSAT - H1 numbers ok,guiding to low end of '16 range. Due pull back.-1/2%

CLARIANT - EBITDA in line,EPS & divi miss.Cashflow poor,margins to improve-2%

STOREBRAND - Headline beat, no divi & reserve strengthening needed......-2/3%

ABN AMRO - Disappointing.Revs 2% miss,costs 3% miss.Capital good @ 15.5%-3/4%

MEKONOMEN - Q4 revs in line.EBIT SEK109m(impacted one-off costs)........-3/5%

SOC. BIC - Miss. Ebits -4% vs cons.FY16 guidance poor & CEO retires.......-5%

CS:
ADP +1% FY EBITDA 1.18b vs cons 1.179b, revs 2.92b vs cons 2.927b

Ageas M/P Dividend slightly light vs forecast, solvency II solid 182%

Autotrader +3% FY Underlying operating profit £169m to £171m, cons 163m

Beiersdorf M/P EBIT ex items on line, sees 2016 rev up 3 to 4%

Bic M/P FY sales inline, sales guidance looks slightly better

Clariant +1% EBITDA 229m vs CS at 227m, Guidacne for improved Cashflow

CNP Assur +1-2% FY net €1.13bn vs cons 1.08bn, solvency II rate 192%

Euronext M/P EBITDA inline, net and divi slightly ahead

Eutelsat -1-2% Revenues/EBITDA 1% beat, guidance slightly light

Grammer +2% FY sales 1.425b vs cons 1.42b, guides for further growth

Kuka M/P EBITDA 259.1m vs cons 257.56m, announce large auto order

Kunglseden +2-3% Q4 rental income +26%, net operating income 17% beat

Marine har +1-2% Revs 7% beat, operational EBIT 1% miss, net income 36% beat

Miners -1% Copper UNCH, Brent -0.60%, Iron Ore -0.45%, China +0.80%

Nexity +1-2% FY operating profit 4% beat, revenues 4% beat

Norma M/P Sales better but EBITA margin a little light

Norsk Hydro +1-2% Underlying EBIT is a 37% beat vs CS, divi flat
Plus500 +2-3% No's better, sees strong growth for 2016

Reckitt +0.5% CS reiterate OUTPERFORM (TP increased to 7000p from 6500p)

Roche +0.5% Positive drug update - Ocrelizumab (MS treatment)

Schneider +1% 2015 revs EU26.6b cons EU26.5b, buyback EU1.5b of shares

Storebrand +5-10% Reports Q4 Net Income 54% beat, Solvency II strong at 168%

St. Galler M/P No's inline, AUM slightly light, dividend inline

Valiant -3-5% Results inline, divi better, outlook weaker

Commerz:

AIR +0,13% Philippine Air buys 6 planes with option for 6 more, each $308mn

BAS +0,13% Akzo to Acquire Coatings Unit From BASF for $530 Million

BEI +1,35% Beiersdorf Forecasts Higher 2016 Sales on Nivea Brand Strength

DAI +0,39% Citi adds Daimler to Focus List Europe

GMM +0,8% Grammer 2015 Rev. Up 5%; Sees 2016 Growth, Higher Profitability

KU2 -0,13% Q4 preliminary EBITA and orders 3% below Consensus

M5Z +11,41% Manz wins new Orders worth €20mn

MTX -0,24% SocGen raised MTU to HOLD (sell)

NOEJ +0,02% 2015 Prelims are in line, 2016 still look optimistic

STM +3,3% Q1 results that beat expectations FY15/16 outlook raised

TKA +3,06% UBS raised ThyssenKrupp to BUY (sell)

TLX -0,32% Talanx to Invest EU300m in New IT to Reduce Above-Market Costs


RBC:
ABN AMRO +2% Q4 net miss but no detail on one-offs. Capital +'ve & oil exp.

AGEAS -2% Q4 miss, combined ratio lower and dividend raised but inline.

BEIERSDORF 0% Strong FY numbers, EBIT inline and raises guidance a tad.

CLARIANT 0% Q4 headline beat but net miss on restructuring costs, reit FY.

CREDIT AG. +1% Q4 net ahead but due to lower tax rate, capital ahead.

DSM +2% Positive Q4 sales/EBITDA and outlook for '16 a tad ahead.

ELECTROLUX +1% AHAM6 data up 4.7% in January and broker upgrades.

EURONEXT 0% FY15 earnings inline, 'resilient' start to '16. No updates.

MARINE H. -3% Weak Q4 report, EBIT a 2% miss, dividend inline.

NORSKE H. +1% Q4 net a tad light but sales 1% ahead of cons.

SCHNEIDER +2% FY rev/EBITDA ahead and announces €1bln- €1.5bln buyback.

STOREBRAND +5% Q4 net income ahead and importantly strong solvency II.

WOLSELEY -2% AB Index below 50 for the first time since August, 49.6.

Numis:
* AVINGTRANS (mkt) In-line interims despite weak O&G markets

* AUTOTRADER (+3%) +VE statement, guiding marginally ahead of est

* GLENCORE (+1%) New RCF on US$7.7bn of debt, no covenants

* MONDI (+1%) BUY, share price fall looks to have come back too far; Times

* PENDRAGON (+1%) BUY, price fall looks overdone; Times

* PLUS500 (mkt) Rev up, but profit lower YoY, guiding ahead on growth

* SPECTRIS (mkt) AVOID, no obvious catalyst; Times

* TRIBAL GROUP (+1-2%) Names Ian Bowles as CEO


JPM:
ABN Capital & leverage ratio beat, ampened by -10% headline PBT miss-1%

AGEAS Light on insurance earnings & Divi, but maintains strong capital-2%

AUTO TRADER Unexpected trading update reads well. FY 16 guidance ahead +2%

BAE Part of consortium awarded $2.55bn US Navy contract +1%

BEIERSDORF Guidance light - top line 3-4% vs our est 4.3% -2%

CLARIANT EBITDA inline.FCF improved but still disappoints,o'look cautious-1%

CNP Solvency strong at 192%. Numbers inline +1+2%

CRED AG Regional stake sale boosts capital; offsets weak set of figs -1%

DSM EBITDA 2% beat. FCF/ net debt disappointing, outlook inline unch

ENEXT Figs broadly inline, divi touch better unch

GLENCORE Early refinancing of revolving credit facility +2%

NORSK Strong beat. EBIT +28% vs cons driven by Bauxite + Alumina +3%

SCHNEIDER Strong. Org sales better, EBITA 6% beat. Divi & buyback ahead +3%

STABILUS Strong. Driven by Europe and NAFTA revs. Outlook upgraded +2%

Dow+1.39% S&P+1.65% Nasdaq+2.27% Russell+2.45%

Macro :

- Italy NPL Plan Pos for Banks if Capital Erosion Avoided: Moody’s

- Nowotny Concerned Over Expectations for March ECB Meeting: Cash

Keep an eye on :

- ABG SM : Abengoa Plans Asset Disposals, Needs EU1.66B 2016-2017

- ABN NA :ABN Amro 4Q Net Misses, Net Interest Margin Declines, Says on Track to Meet Targets, CET1 Ratio 15.5%

- ADP FP : Aeroports de Paris 2015 Profit Matches Estimate

- AGS BB : Ageas 4Q Insurance Profit Misses Ests; Dividend Raised to EU1.65

- BIC FP : Bic CEO to Retire, Chairman to Become CEO; 2015 Net Beats Ests.

- EN FP : Bouygues, Eiffage Seek Extra EU400m for TGV Lines: Figaro

- CLN VX : Clariant 4Q Sales, Ebitda Ahead of Analyst Estimates

- CNP FP : CNP Assurances Full-Year Net EU1.13b VS EU1.08b Year-Ago

- ACA FP : Credit Agricole 4Q Net Rises 28%, Beats Ests; Revamp Planned

- CSGN VX : Harris’s Herro Says Credit Suisse Doesn’t Need More Capital: FuW

- DSM NA : DSM 4Q Ebitda Slightly Beats; Sees Increase in ’16 Ebitda, ROCE, DSM CEO Expects More Chinese Takeovers and Partnerships: CNBC

- ENX FP : Euronext 2015 Net Income Beats; Says 2016 Trading ’Resilient’

- ERA FP : Eramet 2015 Results to Show Sharp Deterioration, Echos Says

- ETL FP : Eutelsat Sees FY Rev. at Low End of Target Ranget; Keeps FY Aims

- FGR FP : Bouygues, Eiffage Seek Extra EU400m for TGV Lines: Figaro

- GAM SM : Gamesa to Install 3 G128-4.5 MW Turbines at Debstedt Wind Farm

- IBAB BB : Ion Beam Raises 2016 Rev. Increase Forecast to >20% From >10%

- KU2 GY : Kuka 2015 Revenue Beats Est.; Secures Large Automotive Deal

- LHA GY : Lufthansa Paid Out EU11.2m Compensation for Crash Victims: RP

- MHG NO : Marine Harvest Net Income Beats Ests.; NOK1.40/Shr Qtrly Div

- NXI FP : Nexity FY Current Oper. Profit EU220m, Est. EU212m

- NOEJ GY : Norma 4Q Sales Rise 23%, Adj. Ebitda Up 22%

- ORA FP : Orange Plans to Start Mobile Bank in Early 2017: Radio Classique

- RNO FP : Renault to Build Nissan’s Utility Vehicle at Sandouville: Echos

- PC IM : *PIRELLI: BOARD APPROVES REFINANCING PLAN UP TO EU7B

- ROG VX : Roche’s Ocrelizumab Gets FDA’s Breakthrough Therapy Designation

- RR/ LN : Rolls-Royce Said Preparing to Back ValueAct for Board Seat: FT

- TIT IM : Tel. Italia CEO Confident in Italy Wireless Market Consolidation, 

Telecom Italia Says Vivendi Nominations Show Commitment to Co.

Tim Seeking to Reduce Labor Costs in Brazil: CEO

Telecom Italia Won’t Pay 2015 Dividend on Common Share: CFO

- SU FP : Schneider 2015 Sales Beat Estimates, Sees EU1.5b Share Buyback

- SN/ LN : Stryker's $1.3bn deal for Physio-Control International means Johnson & Johnson is more likely to buy Smith & Nephew. (FT)

- FP FP : Total Shareholder GBL to Sell 0.7 Percent Stake, 1.9% discount --> 38.04

- UBSN VX : Knight Vinke Sold UBS Stock on Investment Bank Concerns

*ASSA ABLOY RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL

Full Interview :

{http://bit.ly/1QkR9j4} in german {http://bit.ly/249xddk} Google Translation

cash: Governor Nowotny, how do you explain the current turmoil in the markets?

Ewald Nowotny: The fact is: There is a great nervousness. This alone has been a negative impact. We analyze course, what the causes may be. In my view, the unrest is still very much driven by the developments in the emerging markets. On one hand, because this results in a deterioration of the economic situation. On the other hand obviously many investors sold out of the emerging markets, especially sovereign wealth funds. This has a significant impact on the stock markets. What evidence have you for this? I have conducted personal interviews. It is quite clear to me that just SWFs and central banks are currently working hard to be as safe as possible terms of liquidity. Especially for Asian countries is the former Asian crisis a traumatic experience. These States will do everything possible to bring back not the International Monetary Fund into the country need. This is a key point for all Asian crops. They are of the opinion that the intervention of the IMF was very problematic. For them, liquidity is now the most important thing. But the states have indeed also accumulated reserves in order to provide liquidity accordingly prepared. To what extent has the slump on the markets have an impact on the world economy? This is first of all depend on whether we are faced with a longer-term period of uncertainty. Or if this is a phase that corrects itself relatively quickly. But there is no doubt that such a decline, which means a massive destruction of wealth, a very negative impact on their overall mood. How strong is this negative influence, can not yet really determine. Bank shares are indeed fallen dramatically. Finance houses could now be more cautious in lending. That would have been a negative impact on the economy. Certainly, because for the banks, the issue of liquidity management is a very crucial point, so they are cautious on this page. This emphasizes, too, that the measures of the European Central Bank at this stage are of particular importance. Because the ECB is a certain guarantee that appropriate liquidity backups are possible for banks at least in the euro zone. In critical phases liquidity is always the key area. In September last year, you have expressed concerns about the development in emerging markets. Your concerns would but now a lot be bigger? I do not think that has shown here massive additional factors. It was already foreseeable what we can see now. But you have to differ greatly: In the 'BRIC' States, formerly the epitome of dynamism, Brazil is certainly in a difficult position. On one hand, politically, on the other hand certainly due to a tendency of dollar appreciation. Russia is also in a difficult situation, but this is mainly due to the oil price. India is currently a relatively hopefuls. China is in a massive conversion phase. It may be that here is also too rapid liberalization, which will now be withdrawn tend. The causes of the problems in the emerging markets are thus quite different. After the Governing Council meeting last December the markets about the adopted measures of the central bank were disappointed. You ever practiced after criticism that market expectations had been too high. Now massive market turbulence have occurred, and for the March meeting, President Mario Draghi last month announced a review of the monetary policy. Are the expectations of the ECB once again too high? In any case I fear that the expectations might develop in this direction again. I stood in December in the wake of visits to London when I was confronted with an almost ludicrous considerations that had left all contact with reality visible. This is not yet the case. We have a relatively serious discussion. But there is still time until March. Therefore, I believe it is important to make clear here that you do not want to lose in mind games that are not even purely institutionally and technically feasible. If the central bank does not itself to blame for the inflated expectations of market participants? In recent years, central banks have the markets mostly delivered thanks to the increasingly expansive monetary policy what they wanted. This is indeed a very difficult constellation. On the one hand can not act in a vacuum, a central bank. Of course, the central bank must observe the markets, of course, they must also respond to markets. But a central bank must not be guided by the markets reversed. You must make and follow on from their own judgment. I think that the central banks, including the ECB, have chosen the right path. Yields on ten-year government bonds of southern European countries are an indicator of the state of the euro zone. The yield especially the Portugal bond rose significantly again in the last week. Is not questionable that? It shows that markets have a tendency nervousness and therefore particularly sensitive to political changes and announcements. I mean that every government would be well advised to include the reaction of markets which indeed affect the refinancing possibilities in their considerations. The ECB is now trying for years to stimulate the economy in the euro area sustainable. This is done with regionally very varying degrees of success. Fizzling out the effects of the measures is not slow? You have this respect a realistic picture of who, what monetary policy can and what the ECB can. It is the ECB succeeded in preventing a drop in deflation, which is already a big success. It is the ECB's second managed to maintain the functioning of the credit apparatus in motion. Of course, monetary policy can improve the conditions for growth. The actual investment must also be carried by the investors. This is dependent on many factors, not least of expectations in the future. Or at public institutions of the fiscal possibilities. Keyword Deflation: The price of oil makes the ECB is not in their hands to achieve the goal of inflation of just under 2 percent. It is long been far away from this number. The price of oil has a very significant impact on inflation. You also have to be realistic: No central bank in the world can affect the price of oil. This is a development, by which we must by. We have in fact not expected that the oil price falls below $ 30 per barrel. Conversely, I think: Somewhere there are limits. I personally think that we will see already in the second half of 2016, some echo. What do you mean? Echo effect means: If the oil price remains constant, which is already a stabilizing element. And that means that the inflation rate does not decline further. I suppose that we still come someday in a situation of constant oil price because I do not see more big room for developments down. Late February meeting, the finance ministers and central bank chiefs of the G20 in Shanghai. Will one be to agree on a coordinated approach to the turmoil on the markets? Central banks have continuously coordination. One of the great lessons that we have learned from the crisis of the last decade is that central banks are intertwined much more closely about through swap arrangements. Conversely, each central bank must take into account the particular economic and economic conditions primarily in their own field, of course. It has been shown for example that the recovery is very four takes place more quickly and more strongly in the US as an upswing in the euro area. Therefore, it is clear that the United States have started at an earlier time with a rate increase. However, there is now a discussion of how these perspectives develops depends on the growth prospects in the USA. One can not operate in a vacuum, but always with a view of the overall economic developments central bank policy. And that vary from region to region. The US Federal Reserve has, you mentioned it, for almost ten years increased in December for the first time the base rate. Looking back, for example, in thirty years to the time right now: Will we then speak of the great global monetary policy reversal? In thirty years we will be able to evaluate something much better: If the slowdown in growth, we now see a primary economic factor ? Or is it actually the crossing into a different, flatter economic development that can Tagged 'secular stagnation' (long period with no or only weak growth marked by low interest rates and low inflation, n. Of Ed.) Describes. This discussion will take place, and it is my knowledge is currently not possible to provide an answer. They have called for the 'effects and side effects' of an expansionary monetary policy. At most, you should take countermeasures to blistering. How should look the? This is also a lesson from the big financial crisis. We have the term 'macroprudential instruments' now a number of ways to make targeted interventions in order not to have to use all instruments of interest rate policy. This means in concrete terms: In the case of a housing bubble can be more expensive real estate loans by pretending as higher capital requirements or stricter rules for the 'loan-to-value ratio'. These are things that are now used. The side effects of long-term low interest rate policy it is necessary to observe very accurate. At the same time you have but also instruments so that one can deal with side effects of such a policy, at least where it is blistering. There are other areas that are more structurally affected, about life insurance and pension systems. This raises actually a system question: How far can pension schemes based on capital base? Again back to the euro area: How do you see the development in Greece? I believe that there has been in Greece, in fact, significant progress. The banking system has stabilized significantly. Of course, still some things are done. In my view, it is therefore extremely important that the current government remains in office and able to implement the reform program. A situation in which the economic pressure the government would bring the fall and new elections would line, would probably be the worst situation. In the dialogue between Greece and its creditors-economic and political aspects should be considered. One must also consider that in terms of a longer-term development. The German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said yes recently that 'to solve the problem of Greece without the instrument an external devaluation is difficult'. This means that Greece may temporarily should exit the Euro. A partial exit ... Well, that was from the beginning a project that would not have been realistic. There are either exit or then remain, everything else is both practical as well as psychologically not feasible. Greece has good reasons to continue to adopt the euro. Of course, then the possibility of an external devaluation is not given. Greece is in the process but in the middle of an internal devaluation. The effects of this process requires a certain time, of course. One is well advised to enter Greece this time. On the other hand, one should also make sure that the reform momentum is maintained. Switzerland and Austria are comparable nations and friendly neighbors. However, the States separates the foreign policy and monetary policy situation. A vast majority of the Swiss people today would refuse to join the European Union and the euro. Can you understand that? As someone who knows the Switzerland quite well, I can understand that. It must be said openly: Of course, the euro area is currently marked by a series problems. Second, one must also see the special position of Switzerland. It is a country, are integrated in the different language groups. Only Switzerland has been reversed to always be aware that it is vital for the country to establish a correct and good relationship with the EU. This will be easier if you do not have membership and must negotiate individual contracts. Switzerland was successful here until now. There are, as you know, problem areas. And it will also be the result of Switzerland, contribute to the solution of these areas. And as elsewhere in Europe have also in Switzerland right-wing conservative parties upswing ... ... unfortunately this is a pan-European phenomenon. Although I do not presume to me now to give outside an assessment of Swiss domestic policy. Have the Swiss franc or Scandinavian currencies in Europe in the longer term have a chance to exist alongside the euro? I would not venture to enter Switzerland if I would now say something against the Swiss franc (laughs) . Seriously: I see quite a future. But it is clear: The independent room for a small currency is compared to a large currency area restricted. That's a price you have to pay for an independent currency. But I believe that the Swiss central bank operates a very wise policy. How? She had, in terms of a fixed exchange rate, time allowed for adjustment mechanisms. It has then reversed also seen that this time is limited. I think Switzerland is quite able to cope with the quite considerable structural change and structure need to be successful. The franc has depreciated despite the market turmoil in recent months against the euro. We Swiss puzzle something about it ... Obviously we see the very interesting phenomenon that now the euro has become a safe haven and not the franc (smiles) . You have to analyze in detail, in fact. Because of uncertainties in the emerging markets and the significant capital flows related is from the point sources of liquidity and the aspect of the lower price volatility likely a large currency area like the euro attractive as a small currency area. Of course, here also play expectations of dollars and euros a role.