The stock market registered its second consecutive gain on Tuesday with the S&P 500 climbing 0.3%. The benchmark index settled a bit behind the Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5%) with cyclical sectors pacing the advance.
Equity indices saw modest losses at the start of the trading day, but the market was able to overcome the early weakness thanks to continued leadership from the energy sector as the growth-sensitive group charged higher by 2.5% to extend this week's gain to 5.0%. Today's rally was powered by a 3.8% spike in crude oil, which settled at $47.90/bbl, while top-weighted components like Chevron (CVX 98.14, +3.18) and Exxon Mobil (XOM 86.83, +1.55) posted respective gains of 3.4% and 1.8%.
Similar to energy, most of the remaining cyclical sectors ended the day in positive territory with the influential technology (+0.6%) space showing relative strength. The top-weighted tech sector was underpinned by some of its largest members with Apple (AAPL 122.57, +1.39), IBM (IBM 141.88, +1.51), and Microsoft (MSFT 54.15, +0.91) gaining between 1.1% and 1.7% while Visa (V 77.87, +2.65) surged 3.5% to erase the entirety of yesterday's earnings-driven drop.
Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, the industrial space settled on its flat line as transport stocks lagged. The Dow Jones Transportation Average lost 0.4% with freight carriers struggling. On the earnings front, Expeditors International (EXPD 49.75, -1.05) surrendered 2.1% after reporting a two-cent beat on below-consensus revenue.
Over on the countercyclical side, the utilities sector (+0.3%) settled in-line with the market while health care (-0.3%), telecom services (-0.4%), and consumer staples (-0.5%) lagged throughout the session. The health care sector struggled despite a modest uptick among biotech names, evidenced by a 0.3% gain in iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 339.08, +1.02).
That leaves the consumer staples sector (-0.5%), which finished behind the remaining nine groups with Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM 43.15, -3.13) falling 6.8% in reaction to disappointing results.
Today's quiet advance in stocks occurred alongside a modest slide in the bond market with the 10-yr yield rising five basis points to 2.22%.
Investor participation was ahead of average with more than 900 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.
Economic data was limited to the Factory Orders report for September, which showed a decrease of 1.0% while the consensus expected a decrease of 0.9%.
The report showed new orders for durable goods declined 1.2%, which was in-line with the advance release in the prior week's Durable Orders report. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders declined 0.6%, which was weaker than the 0.4% decline reported in the advance release.
Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be reported at 7:00 ET while October ADP Employment Change (consensus 180,000) and September Trade Balance (consensus -$43.00 billion) will be reported at 8:15 ET and 8:30 ET, respectively. The day's data will be topped off with the 10:00 ET release of the ISM Services report for October (expected 56.6).
- Nasdaq Composite +8.6% YTD
- S&P 500 +2.5% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.5% YTD
- Russell 2000 -1.1% YTD
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Three months ago we laid out the best known trick in the public company playbook, i.e., how to beat earnings with atomic watch precision. The answer, presented in the following chart from Deutsche Bank, demonstrated why the average EPS beat in the past 4 years has been about 3.3%. The reason: the average EPS cut just prior to reporting had been -4.0%, or more than the average beat.
Today it is the turn of French bank SocGen to look at the earnings "charade" and try to build a case for shorting the market after the season is over as the downgrades resume.
Here is SocGen's Andrew Lapthorne's reasoning why "Equity rally will fade once the reportingcheating season is behind us"
The resurgence in risk appetite can be put down to central bank support, with the ECB and China either cutting rates or intimating that they are prepared to do more, and of course the charade that is quarterly company reporting. As our readers will be well aware, we have long highlighted the game corporate investor relationship departments play with analysts. To the extent that many companies apparently now simply tell analysts what numbers they should submit to the consensus, numbers which inevitably they then beat a couple of weeks later.
This relationship is, in our view, clearly seen below:
During the busy reporting weeks, upgrades rise relative to downgrades only for this to reverse during ‘quiet’ periods when companies revert to guiding numbers back down again. Why is this important? Well a market being “positively” surprised tends to rise; history shows that during the busiest reporting weeks the S&P 500 has risen 60% of the time versus less than 50% during the quietest weeks. The simple message is this: don’t be short during US reporting seasons. However given weak trend earnings momentum (see page 13), shorting the market thereafter could be worth considering.
Fair point, however one can quickly counter with another even more "bullish" thesis: once earnings season is over and the buyback blackout period ends, the year-end stock repurchases go all out: after all management teams have to max out those equity-linked bonuses. And, as a reminder, in November and December alone is when nearly a quarter of all annual buybacks take place.
And with both buybacks in 2015 and debt issuance set to make record highs, it is virtually assured that the amount of buybacks at the end of 2015, courtesy of who else but the Fed, will be truly unprecedented as the market does everything possible to close at new all time highs.





