>>> FCC requests waiver on immediate debt payment commitments from banks until

FCC requests waiver on immediate debt payment commitments from banks until June

FCC has requested a waiver on immediate debt commitments until June soon after raising EUR 709m from a capital increase, Expansion reported citing unidentified sources. The company expects to receive in April EUR 83m from the sale of its motorways unit Globalvia, the Spanish-language paper noted.

Financial sources told Expansion that the waiver being sought is linked to debt payments as per covenants related to divestitures.

FCC’s gross debt amounts to EUR 7bn, that generates costs of EUR 550m. Most maturities are due from 2018, but this year FCC faces maturities of around EUR 1.4bn, or 20% of the total, according to the report. The total includes debt linked to its cement division Portland Valderrivas, which is itself in talks to refinance a EUR 822m syndicated loan before June, the paper said.

According to the report’s sources, FCC’s key lenders are six of Spain's largest banks and negotiations are led by BBVA.

FCC is the target of a EUR 7.6 per share takeover bid from the Mexican investor Carlos Slim via his vehicle Inversora Carso, that holds a 37% stake in the group. Slim intends to delist Portland Valderrivas with a EUR 6 per share offer to minority shareholders.

In a separate item Expansion said that FCC is also analysing the value of assets for disposal. FCC owns several motorway concessions it could sell if an attractive offer arose, the report said. FCC also holds real estate assets worth EUR 328m and has yet to decide if it sells its 37% stake in the Spanish real estate company Realia, also the target of a take over bid from Slim.

Expansion

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GME -6.7%


Other news: APRI -57% (reports top-line Phase 2b Data for Fispemifene with secondary hypogonadism; failed to achieve statistical significance in key clinical benefit endpoints), NBL -4.1% (notified that the Supreme Court of the State of Israel affirmed the Government of Israel's Natural Gas Regulatory Framework), SRPT -1.1% (confirms that it has received a notice of nomination from Viex Capita regarding its intention to nominate five directors to its Board)

Analyst comments: ATW -3% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays), ESV -2.8% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays), PSG -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), QCOM -0.7% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays )

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CALM +7.2%

M&A news: QLIK +9% (exploring strategic alternatives amid pressure from activist investor Elliott Management, according to Reuters), LF +3.5% (Leapfrog receives, rejects unsolicited non-binding proposal from L&M Acquisitions for $1.10/share), YHOO +1.5% (Barrons suggesting that Yahoo (YHOO) could be sold)


Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: CLF +2.8%, VALE +2.2%, FCX+1.4%, X +0.5%

Other news: GBSN +35% (receives FDA 510(k) clearance for Staph ID/R Blood Culture Panel following submission in August 2015), ARLZ +15.9% (announces FDA acceptance of NDA for Yosprala for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in patients at risk for aspirin-induced gastric ulcers), ACAD +15.8% (FDA releases briefing documents ahead of March 29 AdComm for Nuplazid NDA), VMEM +15.2% (names Ebrahim Abbasi as Chief Operating Officer), LEU +14.3% (signs new U.S. Centrifuge Technology Advancement contract with UT-Battelle; totals ~$32.3 mln and runs through September 30), ALDR +7.4% (positive top-line data from two clinical trials evaluating ALD403 for migraine prevention that targets calcitonin gene-related peptide), VCEL +4.6% (publication of clinical trial rationale and study design for the phase 2b ixcell-DCM trial of ixmyelocel-t), DATA +1.7% (still checking), ZBH +1.3% (discloses that the DOJ and the SEC continue to evaluate alleged misconduct in Brazil and Mexico, as well as any issues relating to Biomet's compliance program)

Analyst comments: N/A

>>> US Early premarket gappers


Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: ACAD +13.7%, QLIK +7.5%, SUNE +5.8%, DATA +1.7%, TWTR +1.7%, LF +1.5%, VRX +1.3%, ZBH +1.3%, TSLA +1.1%, YHOO +1.1%, VCEL +1%

Gapping down: GME -8.3%, TRXC -8.2%, ATW -3.8%, NBL -2.3%, C -1.3%, QCOM -0.7%

>>> EU Mid-Market Update

EU Mid-Market Update: Easter Monday holiday in Europe keeps participation to a minimum


**Notes/Observations**
- Four events that will shape market psychology in the week ahead. Fed chair Yellen's speech to the NY Economic Club, US jobs data on Friday, Euro Zone March CPI and PMI data, and Japan's quarterly Tankan Survey**Notes/Observations*

Overnight news
Asia:
- yen currency weakens on Japanese govt hop to unveil fiscal stimulus and delay a planned increase in sales tax; PM Abe said to plan to unveil package of new spending measures on Tuesday, Mar 29th
- China Feb YTD Industrial Profits registers its first rise after 7 straight declines (Y/Y: +4.8% v-4.7% Dec reading)
- China Beige Book, released over the weekend, also pointed to improving profits in Q1

-Europe:
- Easter Monday holiday keeps European markets closed

Americas:
- Fed's Bullard (Voter): April and June are "live meetings" for Fed to raise rates again

**Economic data**
- None seen

**Fixed Income Issuance:

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 closed for holiday; FTSE closed for holiday;, DAX closed for holiday;, CAC-40 closed for holiday;, IBEX-35 closed for holiday;, FTSE MIB closed for holiday; SMI closed for holiday; S&P 500 Futures +0.5%

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Easter Monday holiday keeps European markets closed

***Equities***
- Energy: Abengoa [ABG.ES] Company confirms standstill request with 75% creditor support. To file chapter 11 for US affiliates

**Speakers**
- Spanish banks to stop counting DTA as capital in 2019 with ECB said to approve rules on DTAs last week
- Japan PM Abe reiterated view that 2md phase of planned sale tax increase to occur unless there is a Lehman-like event (refuted press reports that govt would announce a delay for 2nd round of consumption tax increase in May)
- Japan Fin Min Aso stated that it had no plans to use low rate environment to refinance older JGB bonds
- BOJ Gov Kuroda reiterated that currency intervention is up to the Finance Ministry
- Bank of Korea (BOK) names four new candidates as potential Board members. Koh Seung Beom recommended by Financial Services Commission, Cho Dong-chul recommended by the finance ministry, Shin In-seok recommended by Korea Chamber of Commerce and Lee Il-houng recommended by BOK (**Note: four members expected to leave when their terms end in April)

**Currencies**
- FX markets were listless with European out for Easter Monday holiday.
- JPY currency was weaker for the 7th straight session and above thw 113.50 area (longest streak since Oct). USD/JPY pair was rising on short-covering stemming from increased expectations that PM Abe would unveil fiscal stimulus and delay a planned increase in sales tax

**Fixed Income:
- None seen

**Looking Ahead***
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Feb Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.1% prior
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell 3.25% 2021 Bonds
- 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Mar FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.6%e v 0.5% prior
- 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:30 (US) Feb Advance Goods Trade Balance: -$62.3Be v -$62.2B prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb Personal Income: 0.1%e v 0.5% prior; Personal Spending: 0.1%e v 0.5% prior; Real Personal Spending: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb PCE Deflator M/M: -0.1%e v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb PCE Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Feb Total Federal Debt (BRL): No est v 2.750T prior
- 09:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank (BOI) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.10%
- 10:00 (US) Feb Pending Home Sales M/M: +1.1%e v -2.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.4%e v -0.9% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Trade Balance: +$0.4Be v -$3.4B prior
- 10:30 (US) Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: -26.0e v -31.8 prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 2-Year Notes
- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Mar Consumer Confidence: No est v 98 prior
- 18:00 (HU) Hungary Mar Business Confidence: No est v 4.6 prior; Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -20.2 prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan Feb Jobless Rate: 3.2%e v 3.2% prior; Job-To-Applicant Ratio: 1.29e 1.28 prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan Feb Overall Household Spending Y/Y: -1.7%e v -3.1% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Feb Retail Sales M/M: -0.9%e v -1.1% prior; Retail Trade Y/Y: +1.5%e v -0.1% prior; Large Retailers' Sales: No est v 0.9% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Feb Department Store Sales: 1.6%e v 1.0% prior
- 23:00 (TH) Thailand to sell combined THB80B in 3-month and 6-month bills
- 23:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month, 6-month bills
- 23:30 (TH) Thailand Feb ISIC Manufacturing Production Index Y/Y: -4.0%e v -3.3% prior; Capacity Utilization: No est v 63.9 prior
- (CO) Colombia Feb Retail Confidence: No est v 19.5 prior; Industrial Confidence: No est v 5.3 prior
- (CL) Chile Central Bank (BCCH) Quarterly Report

(TechCrunch) Why every household is about to get a brand-new fridge

Today’s retail economy is focused on acquisition and retention costs. Getting into people’s homes and turning them into long-term brand buyers is the goal, and appliance makers control an untapped resource — the Internet of Things (IoT) — that can effectively extend a brand or retailer’s supply chain visibility into the home.

How will the IoT manifest itself in the home? For many consumer brands and retailers, there’s always been one door that holds the key to the $65 billion a month American households spend on food: the refrigerator door. For example, at this year’s CES, Samsung introduced a refrigerator touted as truly “smart,” with connected cameras inside the fridge, an ability to run Pandora with built-in speakers and even grocery shopping through Amazon’s Alexa or a new, dedicated app called Groceries by MasterCard.

By building smart fridges that can track consumption, deliver offers and manage purchasing and replenishment, manufacturers can extract subsidies from companies in order to tap into data and the revenue stream of each consumer, then provide them with a free refrigerator.

Subsidies have long been a tool for both customer lock-in (think of InkJet printers sold at a loss to open the revenue stream for ink) as well as recurring revenue models (such as Verizon trading a $650 iPhone for the chance at triple the revenue in yearly billings). The smart fridge brings both of these models into play.

With a connected fridge, advertisers will pay to promote products to the consumer on the refrigerator’s screen, who will then use a related subscription-based service to buy the products. What makes promotion like this appealing to advertisers is that it’s data-driven, personalized and proactive.

It’s the same reason Google acquired Nest and Apple built HomeKit: It puts them inside the consumer’s house and gives them the ability to be “first to market” when a need arises. Like Valleywag’s Sam Biddle tweeted after the Nest acquisition, “If your house is burning down you’ll now get Gmail ads for fire extinguishers.”

In the same way, imagine receiving a $0.50 coupon for Heinz ketchup just as you toss your empty bottle. Or better yet, what if you got a coupon for a free bottle of Del Monte ketchup? Would you not try it? And what if this happened in hundreds of thousands of homes? Del Monte, by way of example, stands little chance in the battle over supermarket shelf space, but may find a way to challenge Heinz’s near 60 percent market dominance by going directly to a consumer’s fridge.

Food is a recurring purchase, with most Americans buying the same brands over and over again. While a bottle of ketchup does not have the lock-in protection of InkJet cartridges, the smart fridge provides a way to keep the purchase cycle going through replenishment reminders and promotions. It will play a central role in ensuring the consumption of the same food brands — or help drive consumers to a competitor.

Nothing in this life is free, so how will advertisers and retailers make back the cost of subsidizing these “free” fridges? By tapping in to years of food purchases via the fridge. There will have to be some manner of contract (just like with cell phone carriers) to ensure users behave as intended and buy what the fridge recommends or buy goods from a certain store. Users will see workflows and behaviors that have been made most famous through Amazon, such as:

Recommendations — If the smart fridge knows what it contains, it can make recipe recommendations, which may or may not encourage the purchase of an additional item (e.g. you have lettuce, tomatoes and bread, why not buy some delicious Oscar Mayer bacon and have a BLT tomorrow?).
Subscriptions — By incorporating features similar to Amazon’s Subscribe and Save program, the fridge can ensure rapid, automated replenishment that eliminates the window to change brands and keeps products on hand for continued consumption.
Auto purchase — Despite the ridicule of Amazon’s Dash Button, automatic purchases are the wave of the future. Fridges will log consumption and enable users to auto-purchase depleted goods. It’s this sort of mindless, one-click (or no click) transaction that is the ultimate in retention methodology.
While the smart fridge brings convenience and new features to consumers, it is also interesting to consider what consumers could provide to brands, retailers and each other through machine learning and artificial intelligence.

Look at the success of an app like Waze. Its power comes from the volume of people using the software and making recommendations. You could see the same collective intelligence arise within the smart fridge. What if Del Monte actually does make better ketchup than Heinz, but we just don’t know about it? A connected fridge could provide new insights into tastes and preferences, helping bring better product awareness to the public. It can also provide superior consumer intelligence that food and beverage companies could only dream about when trying to understand buying and consumption habits.

The idea of a free refrigerator may seem radical today, but it’s a concept that has proven successful in other industries — and the technology exists to make it work. Ultimately, the consumers are the ones holding the key to the smart fridge’s future. Are we ready to share the details of every late-night snack, or will the fridge be the line that we draw when it comes to sharing our private information with commercial organizations?

(ZH) Something Just Snapped In The VIX ETF Complex

Something Just Snapped In The VIX ETF Complex

As TVIX, the double-levered long VIX ETF unleashed in Nov 2010, decays to record low prices...

 

An unusual (and almost unprecedented) event has occurred. Just as we saw in Gold ETFs, and Oil ETFs, TVIX Shares Outstanding have exploded by a stunning 225% in the last 4 weeks... [the last 3 times TVIX has undeergone such an epic surge in demand marked a major turning point and led a violent surge in VIX]

 

with the largest inflows (bearish bets) on record in the last week...

 

The entire VIX complex is perturbed as the huge bearish TVIX flows contrast with the complacency of the steepest term structure since Nov 2014 (post Bullard-Bounce)...

 

And net speculative positioning at its shortest VIX (most bullish) in 2016...

 

We saw this kind of manic ETF creation recently in Blackrock's Gold ETF, which forced them to halt creation - for lack of supply...

 

 

In the case of the current scramble for TVIX units, forced buying of VIX futures (which explains the steepness of the futures curve) suggests VIX buying pressure is building...

As Barron's adds, volatility is back, but too few investors even know it.

Most are too focused on the CBOE Volatility Index's extraordinary collapse in recent weeks to 15 from about 28. When the VIX is low, as it is now, it tends to be interpreted as a green light to buy stocks. . .or a sign of investor complacency.

 

Not enough people realize that the VIX is just a 30-day snapshot of expected returns for the Standard & Poor's 500 index. A more meaningful, if esoteric, indicator is the VIX futures curve, which offers a long-term view of the stock market's perceived risk.

 

The curve has lately been flat, indicating little risk to owning stocks between now and more distant months. But the futures curve is now "upward sloping," as if sophisticated investors have suddenly regained visibility into what was an opaque stock market.

 

Nothing bores people more than nerdy derivatives measures, including VIX futures curves. But you should add this volatility gauge to your arsenal of indicators if you trade options or want to be a smarter stock investor.

Once again it appears the ETF tail is wagging the underlying market 'dog' as hedging with the 'cheapest' instrument - no matter how bad the basis - is the new normal. Remember, options markets are already medium term complacent and longer-term terrified.

 

As detailed previously, the VXV has been around only since 2007. Over that time, the VIX/VXV ratio has dropped to 78% on 4 prior distinct occasions:

  • March 12-20, 2012 - The S&P 500 chopped sideways for a few weeks before falling some 9% over the next 2 months
  • August 13-22, 2012 - The S&P 500 chopped sideways for a few weeks before rallying by as much as some 4% over the next few weeks. 2 months later, the index had lost that entire gain, and another 4%.
  • December 5, 2014 - The S&P 500 immediately dropped 5% over the next 2 weeks before chopping sideways for several months.
  • March 20, 2015 - The S&P 500 dropped 2.5% over the next week before moving sideways for several months.

Now there is no guarantee that stocks are about to hit an air pocket. However, given the (albeit limited) precedents, the track record in the short to intermediate-term following such readings has not been a positive one. In fact, following the prior 15 days with VIX/VXV readings below 79%, the S&P 500 was lower 3 months later 14 of the days by a median of -3.7%. The only positive return was the 1 point gain following the March 2015 occurrence.

All in all, this may not be a Defcon 5 level red flag for the market. However, for a rally that has seen scant evidence of exuberance, this is at least one of the first indications of complacency.