>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: China think tank sees 2016 GDP above 6.5%; Japan Econ Min forecasts upward revision to reverse technical recession


***Economic Data***
- (JP) JAPAN OCT PRELIMINARY LEADING INDEX CI: 102.9 V 102.9E; COINCIDENT INDEX: 114.3 V 114.1E
- (JP) JAPAN NOV OFFICIAL RESERVE ASSETS: $1.23T V $1.24T PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 50.7 V 52.1 PRIOR; 4th month of expansion
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS M/M: 1.3% V 0.3% PRIOR; 4th straight increase

***Index Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +1.2%, S&P/ASX +0.2%, Kospi flat, Shanghai Composite +0.4%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Dec S&P500 -0.1% at 2,086

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold flat at $1,084/oz, Jan crude oil -1.1% at $39.54/brl, Mar copper +0.4% at $2.08/lb
- (KR) South Korea sells 5-yr govt bonds at 2.035%
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.3985 v 6.3851 prior; weakest Yuan setting since Aug 28th
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$300M in 4.5% 2033 Bonds; avg yield: 3.3864%; bid-to-cover: 2.53x

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Investors appear to be at peace with full-blown expectations of this month's liftoff by the FOMC after the latest robust non-farm payrolls report data. US equities were broadly higher and treasuries sold off, even as the US dollar did not get a pronounced lift. Markets in Asia are also modestly higher in afternoon trade, led by Nikkei225 which is supported by lower JPY. Kospi is a laggard, while US equity futures are down marginally ahead of Monday open.

- In China, govt think tank State Information Center forecast 2016 GDP of at least 6.5%, CPI around 1.5%, fixed asset investment at 9%, and exports up about 1.5%. This is lower from 2015 targets of 7.0% GDP, 3% inflation, 15% investment and 6% exports, though much closer to trend of incoming data in the past few months and somewhat in line with expectations from the latest Plenum. Note that initial November data out of China will be released as soon as tomorrow starting with trade figures. Also of note out of China, the state council will reportedly allow local govt to include their property tax intake in revenue calculations so as to prop up their balance sheets.

- BOJ Gov Kuroda remained upbeat on the economy and the impact of monetary policy thus far, noting QQE is producing intended effects without financial imbalances. Kuroda also ruled out negative short-term rates. Earlier, econ min Amari said he believes Q3 final GDP - on tap for tomorrow - will be around zero. Recall last month the preliminary negative print marked the 2nd straight quarter of contraction, thereby plunging Japan into a technical recession. CAPEX component was particularly weak, and to that end, local press reported the govt is considering giving small-midsize businesses a 50% tax break for 3 years for buying production equipment so as help stimulate CAPEX investment.

- In the currency market, NZD/USD was particularly soft among USD majors, sliding some 50pips to 0.6690. Analysts noted rising expectations of a rate cut by the RBNZ as soon as in this week's decision. ASB said RBNZ should cut rates by 25bps this week and another 50bps by Aug 2016, while the NZ Treasury warned that economic growth is weaker than expected. In other majors, USD/JPY is up about 20pips around 123.30, AUD/USD down about 15pips below 0.7330, and EUR/USD down about 20pips at a low of 1.0855.

- For the first time in 5 years, US President Obama delivered a national security update from the Oval Office in the wake of the mass shootings in San Bernardino. Obama called the attack an act of terror and also took up a more stringent position against ISIL and their sympathizers, but also reaffirmed that US will not be drawn into another costly ground war in Iraq and Syria. Obama continued to pledge that US will provide training to Syrian and Iraqi forces who fight ISIL while also adding it should be more difficult for people to buy assault weapons. On a related note, France regional elections produced a surge for the Marine Le Pens far-right Front National party in the wake of the Paris shootings. In the Middle East, Iraq Defense Ministry voiced concern that Turkey troops deployed inside Iraq without coordinating with its govt, to which the Turkish counterpart replied that it was to protect the deployed trainers in the country.

***Equities***
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Fairfax Media FXJ.AU +1.3% (acquisition)
- Financials: CITIC Securities 600030.CN -1.3% (Nov result, exec under probe speculation); Haitong Securities 6837.HK +0.6% (Nov result); Sunac China Holdings 1918.HK +0.9% (Nov result); Bank of Jinzhou 416.HK -3.9% (IPO debut); Dexus Property Group DXS.AU +1.4% (reaches agreement of merger terms), China Vanke 2202.HK -4.4% (largest shareholder changes)
- Industrials: CRRC Corp 601766.CN +1.4% (Nov contracts awarded); China Merchants Energy Shipping Co 601872.CN +0.6% (order speculation); Great Wall Motor 2333.HK +1.8% (Nov result)
- Technology: GCL New Energy Holdings 451.HK +2.0% (profit warning, acquisitions); HTC Corp 2498.TW +0.7% (Nov result); Toshiba Corporation 6502.JP +0.4 % (considers options for white goods business); Sharp Corp 6753.JP +0.8% (in talks to sell part of a plant); MediaTek Inc 2454.TW +2.0% (Nov result)
- Materials: Citic Resources 1205.HK -3.5% (profit warning); Iluka Resources ILU.AU +1.5% (terminates talks on acquisition)

>>> Rio Tinto ready to buy assets from distressed miners, particularly in copper

Rio Tinto ready to buy assets from distressed miners, particularly in copper 

Rio Tinto [ASX: RIO, LON: RIO] is interested in buying copper assets, the Australian Financial Review reported on 5-6 December.

Rio Chief Executive Sam Walsh said weak commodity prices could prompt distressed miners to sell top quality assets, which could provide an opportunity for the group, particularly in copper, the article noted.

Walsh said that third and fourth tier assets are being put up for sale, but those are not likely to interest potential suitors.

Walsh noted that Rio is better positioned than many of its rivals and is pursuing growth because it can.

Australian Financial Review

Reuters - Clinton aims to take U.S. relationship with Israel 'next level'

Clinton aims to take U.S. relationship with Israel 'next level'

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said Sunday she would take the relationship between the U.S. and Israel "to the next level," but warned that solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would not be enough to stabilize the entire region.

"I would extend an invitation to the Israeli prime minister to come to the United States," Clinton said at a Washington forum hosted by the Brookings Institution when asked about her first day in the White House, "to work towards very much strengthening and intensifying our relationship on military matters."

Clinton also said the military option should not be "taken off the table" when dealing with Iran, which is already showing "provocative behavior" that could violate its nuclear deal with the U.S.

>>> Turkey Detains Russian Ships In Black Sea, Blasts Moscow For Brandishing

Turkey Detains Russian Ships In Black Sea, Blasts Moscow For Brandishing Rocket Launcher In Strait
 

Exactly a week ago, we warned that Turkey does have one trump card when it comes to dealing with an angry Russian bear that’s hell bent on making life miserable for Ankara in the wake of Erdogan’s brazen move to shoot down a Russian Su-24 near the Syrian border. Turkey, we explained, could move to close the Bosphorus Strait, cutting one of Moscow’s key supply lines to Latakia. 

We went on to explain, that such a move would probably be illegal based on the 1936 Montreux Convention, but as Sputnik noted, "in times of war, the passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish government." 

Obviously, Turkey and Russia haven’t formally declared war on one another, but the plane “incident” marked the first time a NATO member has engaged a Russian or Soviet aircraft in more than six decades and given the gravity of that escalation, one would hardly put it past Erdogan to start interfering with Moscow’s warships, especially if it means delaying their arrival in Syria where the Russians are on the verge of restoring an Assad government that’s Turkey despises. 

Well sure enough, the tit-for-tat mutual escalation that’s ensued since the Su-24 crash has spilled over into the maritime arena with Moscow and Ankara detaining each other's ships. 

After five Turkish vessels were held at the port of Novorossiysk for “inspections,” Turkey retaliated on Friday by holding four Russian ships at the Black Sea port of Samsun. The following table reveals a hilarious list of the Russian vessels’ alleged infractions which apparently include fire safety violations, pollution prevention violations, and problems with “life saving appliances.”:

One of the vessels - the cargo ship Crystal - has yet to be released. 

"Six ships with a Russian flag were checked at Samsun Port on Dec. 5. The ships were found to be in compliance with Port State Control (PSC) rules, a series of international standards that all ships are required to meet, but some problems were subsequently detected in four of the ships,"Hurriyet says, adding that "three of the ships consequently met the requirements and were permitted to leave, but the remaining vessel has not yet been permitted to depart." 

The Crystal apparently lacks the "required documents."

Obviously, Russia and Turkey are engaged in a bit of petty mutual escalation here, but it's worth noting that Samsun isn't far from the Bosphorus: 

And while Turkey now appears content to harrass Russian cargo vessels, one shouldn't discount the possibility that Erodgan will look to do something more provocative now that it looks like the UN will ultimately be dragged into the ISIS oil smuggling debate. 

Indeed, Moscow seems to be taking the Bosphorus issue quite seriously because as Hurriyet reported just hours ago, when the Russian warship Caesar Kunikov made its way through the strait on Saturday, a Russian soldier stood on deck with a shoulder ground-to-air missile at the ready. 

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu's response: "For a Russian soldier to display a rocket launcher or something similar while passing on a Russian warship is a provocation. If we perceive a threatening situation, we will give the necessary response."" Indeed.

And meanwhile, three NATO warships have dropped anchor off Istanbul’s Sarayburnu coast: Portugal's F-334 NRP Francisco de Almeida, Spain’s F-105 ESPS Blaz de Lezo, and Canada's FFG-338 HMCS Winnipeg.

>>> What to look at this Week end (I'm back) - 5th & 6th of December 2015

Weekly Update
Dow-2.29% S&P-2.49% Nasdaq-2.28% Russell-4.10% Ibovespa-1.24% NKY-4.72% Hang Seng-1.81% Shanghai-0.12% EuroStoxx-4.54% FTSE -4.20% CAC -4.37% Dax -4.80% Ibex -2.25% MIB -2.45% SMI -1.56%
Policy divergence between Europe and the United States was thrown into high relief this week. On Thursday, the ECB extended its QE bond buying program to March 2017 and cut its deposit rate further into negative territory, as President Draghi said that Europe needed more support for longer. Then on Friday, the November US jobs report beat expectations with strength seen across all categories, all but requiring the Fed to hike rates at its policy meeting in two weeks. The other major financial event was the OPEC summit, where the cartel acknowledged the reality that its prior 30M bpd production ceiling was clearly being ignored by member states. OPEC refrained from actually setting a new production ceiling, though the organization's President eventually confirmed the current production level is around 31.5M bpd. Markets were forced to digest these key events against the backdrop of a horrific terrorist attack in San Bernardino CA. In a volatile trading week, the S&P500 ended up 0.1% and the DJIA and Nasdaq each gained 0.3%.

Macro :
- Draghi Says ECB Will Deploy Further Tools If Necessary
- Basel Said to Propose New Method for Banks Leverage Ratio: WSJ
- Japan expected to reduce planned FY15 bond issuance due to better than expected tax revenue growth - Nikkei - To trim FY15 govt bond issuance by approx ¥450B from the ¥36.9T planned- FY tax revenue now expected at ¥56.4T, about ¥1.9T more than forecast
- 27 Major Global Stocks Markets That Have Already Crashed By Double Digit Percentages In 2015 {http://bit.ly/1NbytSr}


Keep an eye on :
- ABG/P SM : Abengoa Banks May Swap Part of Debt for Equity: Expansion
- AMUN FP : Amundi Interested in Buying Arca, Il Sole Reports
- AAPL US : 5th-generation volume Apple TV production to begin in Q1 - http://bit.ly/1IM62sl
- BMPS IM : Monte Paschi Had 3 Offers for Bad Loan Portfolio: Corriere
- MLCMB FP : Compagnie du Mont-Blanc buys Societe des Remontees Mecaniques de Megeve for EUR 14m
- ELEB BB : Electrabel CEO Says Belgian Nuclear Plants Could Close by 2025
- ENGI FP : Engie Belgian Spinoff Possible, CEO Mestrallet Says: L’Echo
- FAGR BB : Lucerne Capital Management Raises Fargon Short Position to 1.58%
- FCA IM : Fiat Chrysler Delays Completion of Alfa Model Plan to 2020
- FNC IM : Finmeccanica rebuffs Boeing bid approach for Westland  - THE SUNDAY TIMES
- GLEN LN : S. Africa Gupta Family Look at Buying Glencore Mine: City Press
- HOLN VX : Holcim Wants to Close 5 Cement Plants in Flanders: L’Echo
- IMT LN : Fitch Sees ‘Modest Respite’ for ‘16 Tobacco Makers’ Vol Pressure
- INW IM : Bids for Telecom Italia’s Inwit Expected by Dec. 18: Radiocor
- LHA GY : Jordanian Man Screaming He "Wants To Join Allah" Tries To Open Lufthansa Airplane Cabin Door In Midair
- PBY US : Icahn discloses new 12.1% stake; plans to talk to management about possible synergies between PBY's retail segment to Icahn's Auto Plus - 13D filing 
- RIO LN : Rio Tinto’s CEO Has Interest in Acquiring Copper Assets: AFR
- ROG LN : Roche Says Data Show Gazyva Patients Nearly 4 Yrs Treatment-Free
- RYA LN : Ryanair Cancels Some Flights on Irish, Italian Routes
- TSM US : TSMC to post another double-digit revenue increase in 2016, says co-CEO

FT : Glencore expects to cut debt ahead of schedule

Glencore expects to cut debt ahead of schedule

Glencore, the resources group hit by falling commodity prices, is to tell investors that it expects to complete its $10.2bn debt reduction plan before the end of 2016, earlier than previously expected.
The Swiss-based company also plans to use a call with investors on Thursday to highlight the progress it is making with a disposal programme and the additional steps it can take if commodity prices remain weak, according to three people familiar with Glencore’s plans.

Glencore has been scrambling to reassure nervous shareholders and creditors that it can cope with its hefty debt load amid a rout in commodity prices.
Its shares have fallen 70 per cent since January and are the worst performers in the FTSE 100 this year. They have now lost more than three-quarters of their value since the company’s 2011 stock market flotation.
Facing pressure from shareholders to strengthen Glencore’s balance sheet, chief executive Ivan Glasenberg unveiled a plan in September to reduce net debt to the “low $20bns” from $30bn. He also quickly raised $2.5bn from a share offering.
Since the plan was announced the price of copper, Glencore’s most important mined commodity alongside thermal coal, has fallen by more than 11 per cent to about $4,500 a tonne. So Mr Glasenberg is now under pressure from investors to complete the deleveraging by the end of June.
“We will be looking for management to use the call on Thursday to not only highlight the options available to reduce debt further but also to offer a comprehensive operating cost-saving plan,” analysts at Macquarie said in a report.
In keeping with more straitened times, this year’s investor day has been pared back to a conference call from Glencore’s head office in Switzerland. It will feature presentations from Mr Glasenberg and chief financial officer Steven Kalmin rather than all of Glencore’s divisional heads.
“It won’t be the full Harlem Globetrotters this year,” one person familiar with the company’s plans said.
Glencore will use the call to emphasise the progress it has made. The company has already raised $900m from selling future silver production. If it completes a second similar deal, Glencore will have raised more than $5bn.
The company will also say that it expects to reach the “low $20bns” net debt target before the end of 2016. Many analysts think the target will be exceeded and it will raise more than the $2bn it has targeted from asset sales.
Glencore is aiming to complete the sale of a minority stake of up to 30 per cent in its agricultural business by the end of June, the people said. An information memorandum was sent out to potential bidders last month. Credit Suisse valued the business at $7bn in a recent report.
There has also been strong interest in two smaller copper mines that Glencore has put up for sale and could be worth more than $1bn.
“These are ‘bite-sized’ assets, not huge mines that need lots of sustaining capital expenditure,” one banker familiar with the projects said.
The size and scale of Glencore’s trading operation marks it out from other miners, and the division, known internally as Marketing, is closely watched because it is the company’s biggest generator of cash. It is expected by investors to make $2.5bn to $2.6bn of earnings before interest this year.
“Glencore has previously indicated that Marketing earnings should recover to $2.7bn to $3.7bn beyond 2016. However, we struggle to see how earnings recover to that level without tightness returning to commodity markets,” Macquarie said.

WSJ : Vail Resorts Keeps Climbing Mountains

Vail Resorts Keeps Climbing Mountains

A good start to the prime ski season suggests the ski-resort operator’s stock still has more room to run.

Mother Nature can be fickle, something ski-resort operator Vail Resorts Inc. knows all too well. But a snowy start to the prime ski season suggests Vail’s recent run is poised to continue.

The stock has nearly quadrupled in value over the past four years, far outpacing the S&P 500. And the slope has gotten even steeper of late, with shares rising more than 20% since the end of September to record highs. As Vail prepares to report fiscal first-quarter results Monday, investors shouldn’t jump off the lift just yet.

Vail’s latest ascent has coincided with snowstorms that already have blanketed Colorado, Utah and Lake Tahoe—ski regions that suffered through an unusual dry spell last year. While Vail managed to weather the weather, management guidance for the current ski season will be critical.

Analysts project a loss of $1.75 a share for the period ended in October, due to the seasonality of Vail’s business. More important, Wall Street has actually gotten more upbeat ahead of the results. A year ago, analysts expected a loss of $2.04 a share for this period. Meanwhile, fiscal 2016 revenue is expected to rise 10% from a year ago, continuing its upward trajectory, while earnings are expected to increase 16%.

Vail has benefited from a recent buying spree. It acquired Park City Mountain Resort in Utah last year, giving it the biggest ski resort in the U.S. Additionally, Vail bought a resort in Australia this summer, which should help bolster its results during its typical off-season periods.

Vail also may find itself relatively insulated from tepid U.S. consumer spending given its affluent clientele. Visitors at Vail’s properties have average yearly household income of nearly $300,000, according to the company. That is important considering Vail raised season-ticket prices this year by between 3.5% and 5.5%.

Despite Vail’s big rally, the stock looks relatively reasonable for a company that increased earnings at a 24% compound annual rate in the past six years. Shares trade at about 32 times projected earnings for the next 12 months, or about half the multiple it sported two years ago.

Vail has yet to hit its peak.