WSJ : French Telecom Companies Looking to Make a Deal

French Telecom Companies Looking to Make a Deal

Mobile phone companies want to reduce the number of domestic providers and expand abroad

PARIS—French telecommunication companies are reviving efforts to reduce the number of mobile-phone businesses at home and expand abroad as they try to restart a wave of deal-making across Europe.

Orange SA is weighing multiple acquisition targets in France and in Europe, to build scale so the former French monopoly doesn’t itself become a target in the future, according to people familiar with the matter, who added that the exploration is still preliminary and no deal is imminent.

The potential options Orange’s advisers have proposed include Dutch company Royal KPN NV and Belgium’s Proximus Group, according to a person familiar with the deliberations. Orange is also considering deal options with the telecom unit of French industrial firm Bouygues SA or Telecom Italia SpA, the person added.

Orange wants to “swallow rather than be swallowed,” said another person close to the company.

Iliad SA, the low-cost upstart that kicked off a price war in France when it became the country’s fourth mobile operator in 2012 and slashed prices, is also looking to buy assets outside France, people familiar with the matter said. Iliad counts some 17 million fixed and mobile subscribers in France and is eager to build scale by putting its model and management team to work in another market, one of these people said.

Bloomberg earlier reported that Orange was exploring potential deals with Bouygues and Telecom Italia.

The hunt for scale comes as telecom consolidation in Europe has stalled in recent months. Still, investors’ continue to push companies to combine in the face of competition. Fast consumer adoption of communications apps and social media have made telecom executives seek size in what some frame as a race with Silicon Valley.

Telecom operators in Europe had been on a deals blitz over the past two years, with companies in the U.K., Italy, Germany and elsewhere looking to merge to share the burden of costs as revenues slide.

In France specifically, telecom executives have for two years sought to shrink the number of mobile operators, amid falling revenues caused by intense competition.

Feeling the pressure, executives like Orange CEO Stéphane Richard say the number of mobile operators must return to three from four to make their businesses profitable enough to create an incentive for investment. Orange has in recent years struggled to grow earnings and revenue in France, its biggest market, and a deal would lead to substantial cost savings, analysts say.

It isn’t the first time Bouygues’s telecom unit has been coveted by a rival since its parent company, controlled by industrialist Martin Bouygues, failed in a 2014 bid to buy France’s No. 2 mobile company by subscribers, SFR.

Bouygues held talks with both Orange and Iliad about a potential sale in the first half of 2014, but ultimately failed to agree on price. In June, it rejected a bid of €10 billion ($10.8 billion)—valuing the company at roughly twice of most estimates—from larger peer Altice SA, citing execution risk and confidence in its stand-alone strategy.

Since then, Bouygues Telecom has reported improving financial performance. In the third quarter, the telecoms division added 94,000 fixed-line phone customers and 208,000 mobile customers.

For Mr. Bouygues, who started the business some 21 years ago, the telecoms arm has a clear sentimental value, people close to him have said. This could make a deal with Orange more likely: if funded by shares, Mr. Bouygues could retain a healthy stake in Orange, and keep his hand in the industry.

Speculation about a deal involving one of the French operators has resurfaced since France completed the auction of six blocks of 700 MHz frequencies in November, raising €2.8 billion.

A potential stumbling block is the increasingly tough stance taken by the European Union on telecommunications mergers. It is also unclear whether the French antitrust watchdog would bless a reduction in the number of French operators.

“The regulatory hurdle for this type of deal would be severe, and include not only the sale of spectrum and towers, but also subscribers,” said San Dhillon, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

LesEchos : Bouygues Telecom réclame plus de 2 milliards d’euros à l’Etat

EXCLU - L’opérateur a calculé le préjudice subi depuis l’arrivée de Free Mobile et l’absence d’encadrement de l’itinérance avec Orange.
Alors que les rumeurs de rapprochement entre Orange et Bouygues agitent les marchés , les affaires continuent, notamment sur le terrain juridique. Bouygues Telecom vient d’envoyer une lettre au Premier ministre, Manuel Valls, dans laquelle il demande à être indemnisé par l’Etat à hauteur de 2,285 milliards d’euros.
Un montant considérable qui correspond, selon la filiale du groupe de BTP, au préjudice financier subi depuis l’arrivée de Free dans le mobile, début 2012, et la possibilité offerte à l’opérateur de louer le réseau d’Orange via un contrat d’itinérance en 2G et 3G, qui court jusqu’en janvier 2018.
Dans cette missive datée du 4 décembre, dont « Les Echos » ont pu consulter une copie, Bouygues Telecom justifie sa demande en dénonçant « l’illégalité commise ab initio par l’Arcep [le régulateur des télécoms, Ndlr], consistant à ne pas avoir encadré les conditions de mise en œuvre et d’extinction d’itinérance au jour même de son adoption ».
Pour l’opérateur, cette illégalité a été reconnue par le Conseil d’Etat qui, le 9 octobre, avait reproché au régulateur de s’être déclaré incompétent pour examiner le contrat d’itinérance entre Free et Orange . « L’Arcep a méconnu l’étendue de ses pouvoirs » et « commis une erreur de droit », avait-il considéré, répondant favorablement à une plainte de Bouygues.

Celui-ci plaide depuis plus de deux ans pour un encadrement plus strict de l’accord entre Free et Orange, avec la définition d’un calendrier d’extinction par plaques géographiques de l’itinérance, comme le recommandait l’Autorité de la concurrence dès mars 2013.
« En s’abstenant illégalement d’encadrer cette itinérance nationale [...], l’Arcep a permis le développement d’une situation concurrentielle gravement déséquilibrée au profit de Free Mobile et au détriment, principalement, de Bouygues Telecom », est-il écrit dans la lettre, signée par son pdg, Olivier Roussat.
L’opérateur a listé sept préjudices qui permettent d’arriver à ce total de 2,285 milliards d’euros. Le plus important porte sur les pertes de revenus et de marge subies depuis l’arrivée de Free Mobile, évaluées à 1,166 milliard. Ce à quoi il faut ajouter 527 millions pour la période allant au-delà de 2015.
Lire aussi :
> Orange s’intéresserait à TF1 et Bouygues Telecom, Bouygues dément
« L’entrée excessivement agressive de Free sur le marché »
L’opérateur estime en effet qu’« avec  un encadrement normal de l’itinérance », Free n’aurait pas pu pratiquer des prix aussi bas et les revenus de Bougues Telecom, qui a dû baisser ses tarifs pour s’adapter, auraient été plus élevés. Il estime aussi avoir subi une perte « anormale » de clients durant la période 2012-2015, à cause des prix bas de Free, évaluée à 206 millions.
Autre préjudice important, celui lié aux plans sociaux menés par Bouygues Telecom, conséquence directe, selon l’opérateur, de « l’entrée excessivement agressive de Free sur le marché », toujours « rendue possible par l’absence d’encadrement d’itinérance ».
Coût estimé : 309 millions. Bouygues Telecom dénonce également, sur la période, « l’élévation des coûts d’acquisitipon » de clients (20 millions), « le préjudice financier » lié à l’augmentation du coût de la dette (33 millions) et enfin « l’atteinte à l’image de marque » (24 millions).
Lire aussi :
> Les enchères pour les fréquences 4G sont bel et bien terminées
Pas de réaction de Matignon
Matignon n’a pour l’instant pas réagi à la demande de Bouygues. « Difficile d’imaginer qu’ils répondent favorablement. C’est presque autant que l’argent récolté avec la vente des fréquences », remarque un bon connaisseur du secteur. En outre, l’Arcep est dotée depuis cet été de nouveaux pouvoirs lui permettant de statuer sur les accords de partage de réseaux.
Elle doit d’ailleurs publier des lignes directrices dans les prochaines semaines sur l’encadrement de ce type de contrats. Avec cette lettre, Bouygues Telecom met un peu plus la pression sur le régulateur. En cas de rejet, il pourrait porter l’affaire devant le Tribunal administratif. Interrogé, l’opérateur n’a pas souhaité commenter le contenu de cette lettre

>>> What to look at today - 9th of December 2015

Dow-0.92% S&P-0.54% Nasdaq-0.07% Russell-0.35%
US Market was underpressure but manage to recover part of its loss by the close, with Nasdaq outperforming. Disapp. Chinese data raised concerns about global growth, oil traded lower by more than 2% before recovering, finishung -0.3% @37.51, Oil rebound helped market to recover but not to close above 200d MA. Nine of ten sectors ended in the red while health care (+0.2%) eked out a slim gain thanks to relative strength in biotechnology, IBB +2%. Volume continue to ba above average @ 915mil shares. US After Hours AVAV +9.1%, PLAY +6.3%, OXM -2.7%, SWHC -1.3% following earnings/guidance; ONTY -33% following updated trial data, WYNN+10% on CEO Purchase, HTZ+3% on Icahn stake increase, YHOO+2.7% on CNBC report on spinoff, ONTY-33% on drug update...Asian equity markets are mixed, with more benign inflation numbers out of China helping soothe yesterday's decline from soft trade figures and continued commodity rout. Economic data from Japan continues to shine. Leading indicator machine orders grew by over 10% m/m and y/y - a multi-month high rate of growth on both measures. Govt upgraded its assessment for the sector, stating orders are showing a pickup.

Nikkei -0.98% Hang Seng-0.30% Shangai +0.10%

Eur$1.0920 CNY 6.4246 JPY 122.75 GBP 1.5023 CHF 0.9924 RUB$ 69.24 WTI $ 38.26(+2%)

S&P +0.24% EuroStoxx+0.03% Dax+0.02% SMI -0.12%

Macro :
- Emerging Markets Warned of Capital Drought as Fed Nears Liftoff
- China Nov. Consumer Prices +1.5% Y/y; Est. +1.4%

Keep an eye on :
- ARL GY : Aareal Raises 2015 Forecast After Sale of Swedish Property Co
- ABG/P SM : Abengoa to Offer to Capitalize Debt, El Confidencial Reports
- AB FP : AB Science Says Interim Analysis Is Planned for 1Q 2016
- AIR FP : Boeing’s New No-Drama 737 Jetliner Is Ready for Its Public Debut
- AREVA FP : Westinghouse Interested in Areva Assets, CEO Roderick Says: WSJ
- BALSN VX : Basilea Offers CHF175m Senior Convertible Bonds Due 2022
- BAS GY : BASF Faces Challenges, Structural M/T Issues, Credit Suisse Says
- BAYN GY : Bayer Anticoagulant Said to Be Investigated by EMA: Handelsblatt
- GBF GY : Bilfinger Said to Seek Bids for Power Business by Mid-January
- BNP FP : BNP Paribas Fortis Plans to Pay EU2b Dividend to Parent
- EN FP : Bouygues Telecom Seeks EU2.285B From French State, Echos Says
- CSGN VX : Credit Suisse Names Levin as Asia Pacific Asset-Management Head
- EDF FP : EDF Appoints Bruno Lescoeur as Adviser to President and CEO
- EDF FP : Edison Names Benayoun CEO, Sees Risk of ~EU1.5b Impairment
- IAG LN : British Airways May Raise Paris Orly-New York Capacity: Tribune
- IMT LN : *GULF STATES MULL RAISING CUSTOMS DUTY ON TOBACCO BY 100%: MAAAL
- KPN NA : Orange Said to Weigh KPN, Proximus as Acquisition Targets: WSJ
- NDA SS : Nordea Chairman Says 75% Dividend Policy Is Realistic: DI
- ORA FP : Orange Said to Weigh KPN, Proximus as Acquisition Targets: WSJ
- SAB LN : Lee Says AB InBev Hearing Mitigated Concerns About Takeover Deal
- SCYR SM : Sacyr in Talks on Loan for Italian Highway: El Economista
- VOW3 GY : VW Suspended From FTSE4Good Indexes Over Emissions
- VOW3 GY : VW Said to Keep Earlier Emissions Information From U.S.: WSJ

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 9th of December 201

>>> Up
*AIR FRANCE-KLM RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*EUROTUNNEL RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*FINNAIR RAISED TO BUY AT HSBC
*MONEYSUPERMARKET.COM RAISED TO BUY AT JEFFERIES
*PADDY POWER RAISED TO BUY AT HSBC
*SALZGITTER RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE

>>> Down
*ANGLO AMERICAN CUT TO UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES
*ARCELORMITTAL CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE
*ELECTROLUX CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUAL WEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*F5 NETWORKS CUT TO REDUCE FROM NEUTRAL AT NOMURA
*NORDAX GROUP AB CUT TO HOLD AT NORDEA
*SANDVIK CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUAL WEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*SSAB CUT TO UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES
*SSAB CUT TO UNDERPERFORM AT MACQUARIE
*SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC CUT TO EQUAL WEIGHT AT BARLCAYS
*SKF AB CUT TO EQUAL WEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*VOESTALPINE CUT TO NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*AUTOGRILL RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT RAYMOND JAMES, PT EU10
*ELIOR RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT RAYMOND JAMES, PT EU23
*SHOWROOMPRIVE RATED NEW BUY AT GOLDMAN, PT EU25

>>> Call

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: China markets recover on more benign inflation


***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA NOV CPI Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.4%E
- (CN) CHINA NOV PPI Y/Y: -5.9% V -6.0%E (45th consecutive month of decline)
- (JP) JAPAN OCT MACHINE ORDERS M/M: +10.7% (19-month high) V -1.5%E; Y/Y: 10.3% (4-month high) V 0.6%E
- (JP) JAPAN NOV M2 MONEY STOCK Y/Y: 3.3% (13-month low) V 3.5%E; M3 MONEY STOCK Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.8%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT HOME LOANS M/M: -0.5% V -1.0%E; first decline in 3 months
- (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 100.8 V 101.7 PRIOR, M/M: -0.8% V +3.9% PRIOR

***Index Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.8%, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi +0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%, Hang Seng -03.%, Dec S&P500 +0.3% at 2,065

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold flat at $1,075/oz, Jan crude oil +2.1% at $38.31/brl, Mar copper +0.7% at $2.06/lb
- (US) API Petroleum Inventories: Crude: -1.9M v +1.6M prior (1st draw in 3 weeks)
- (CN) China MOF sells 10-yr bonds, avg yield 2.9764%
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.4140 v 6.4078 prior; Lowest Yuan setting since Aug 2011
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 5-10yr JGBs, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGBs, and ¥140B in JGBs with maturity over 25-yr
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$800M in 4.75% 2027 Bonds; avg yield: 2.9703%; bid-to-cover: 2.30x

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Asian equity markets are mixed, with more benign inflation numbers out of China helping soothe yesterday's decline from soft trade figures and continued commodity rout. CPI rose to 1.5%, above 1.4% consensus and 1.3% prior, which was a 6-month low. Sequentially, CPI was flat after a negative -0.3% print last month. Food CPI lifted to 2.3% v 1.9% prior, and non-food component also improved to 1.1% v 0.9% prior. Reports of other stimulative policy steps also helped to improve sentiment on the mainland. Automakers rallied on reports of car subsidies in the rural markets. Other reports forecast expanded tariff cut in consumer products next year. On a macro level, China state council is considering increase in 2016 M&A activity in sectors such as materials and clean energy that suffer from "serious overcapacity". Also of note, policymakers continued to weaken the CNY currency to further stimulate exports, with today's USD fix at its lowest level in over 4 years.

- After escaping recession, economic data from Japan also continues to shine. Leading indicator machine orders grew by over 10% m/m and y/y - a multi-month high rate of growth on both measures. Govt upgraded its assessment for the sector, stating orders are showing a pickup. Separately, Japanese press indicated the govt is considering allowing GPIF pension fund to invest directly in stocks to minimize management fees. On the fiscal side, local press report indicated the total bond issuance in FY16 would shrink by about ¥5-10T from FY15, with a 20% increase in the issuance of 40-yr JGBs and a decrease in shorter duration debt, as the govt seeks to reduce debt-servicing cost risks.

- Down under, Australia Westpac consumer confidence index retreated with a slight decline. Resident economist noted speculation about GST tax changes may be unnerving some respondents with a more pessimistic view of the economy also cited. Ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ meeting, NZIER Shadow Board recommends a hold even though fixed income markets are pricing in about a 60% chance of a cut. NZD/USD was under more pressure in today's session ahead of the meeting, falling another 30pips toward 0.6620. In other USD majors, AUD/USD traded sideways in a 30pip range above 0.72, while USD/JPY fell about 40pips from the highs below 122.70.

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- WYNN: CEO purchased 1M shares in open market this week (almost 1% of shares outstanding); +12.7% afterhours
- SBLK: Announces agreement to sell 4 modern capesize vessels for $122M; +12.2%
- AVAV: Reports Q2 +$0.19 v -$0.09e, R$64.7M v $55.9Me; +9.5% afterhours
- PLAY: Reports Q3 $0.12 v $0.03e, R$192.8M v $186Me; +6.2% afterhours
- DOW: SAID TO BE IN ADVANCED TALKS TO MERGE WITH DU PONT; Deal may be announced in coming days - financial press; DOW +5.5%, DD +6.2% afterhours
- HTZ Icahn (High River and other Icahn entities) disclose amended 14.34% stake (vs 11.3% prior) - 13D/A filing; +3.3% afterhours
- YHOO: CNBC's Faber: Company will not move forward with Alibaba spin off; will continue to examine spin off of core business; formal announcement by tomorrow; +2.7% afterhours
- KKD: Reports Q3 $0.19 v $0.21e, R$128.5M v $133Me (1 est); +1.7% afterhours
- MA Approves $4B buyback program (3.7% of market cap); increases dividend 19% to $0.19 (0.77% yield) from $0.16; +0.6% afterhours
- SWHC Reports Q2 $0.25 v $0.20e, R$143.2M v $137Me; -1.4% afterhours
- KMI: Cuts quarterly dividends 76% to $0.125 from $0.51 (indicated yield 3.2%), to use excess cash to fund growth investments; -6.5% afterhours
- ONTY: Announces Phase 1b data for ONT-380 in HER2-Positive Breast Cancer patients with and without Brain Metastases; -28.4% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Skyworth Digital 751.HK +3.1% (Nov result)
- Financials: China Vanke 000002.CN +6.3% (Anbang Insurance raises stake); China Galaxy Securities Co 6881.HK +2.6% (Nov result); Agile Property Holdings 3383.HK +1.6% (Nov result); Yuexiu Property 123.HK +0.8%?(Nov result)
- Industrials: China Railway Construction Corp 1186.HK +0.2% (won project); Doosan Infracore Co. 042670.KR -1.3% (to cut 30% execs); Mitsubishi Heavy Industries7011.JP -1.6% (3rd postponement)
- Technology: Wistron 3231.TW +3.0% (Nov result); NCsoft Corp 036570.KR -1.4% (share buyback); Sharp Corp 6753.JP +0.8%, Samsung Electronics 005930.KR +1.0% (Samsung Electronics speculated as bidder for LCD); Toshiba Corporation 6502.JP +0.9% (ex-presidents may face criminal penalties)
- Materials: China Minmetals Resources 1208.HK +4.0%, Metallurgical Corporation of China 1618.HK -12.9% (impairment, SOE integration); China Steel Corp 2002.TW -0.6% (Nov result)
- Healthcare: Greencross Limited GXL.AU +1.5% (receives interest from private equity groups)
- Telecom: Telstra Corp. TLS.AU -0.9% (plans co-investment)a

>>> US After Hours : AVAV +9.1%, PLAY +6.3%, OXM -2.

AVAV +9.1%, PLAY +6.3%, OXM -2.7%, SWHC -1.3% following earnings/guidance; ONTY -33% following updated trial data

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings:  AVAV +9.1%, PLAY +6.3%, EMKR +2.6%, KKD +2.4%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news:  SBLK +12.7% (announced it will sell two modern Capesize vessels and two modern Kamsarmax vessels for $122 mln to unaffiliated 3rd parties; expected to be delivered to the Buyers during 1Q16), WYNN +10.2% (announced CEO purchases 1 mln shares on open market), PGN +7.5% (received non-compliance notice from the NYSE relating to the minimum market cap requirement, has 45 days to submit a plan on regaining complaince), FC +6.5% (to conduct a $35 mln modified Dutch auction tender offer for shares of its common stock), HTZ +3.0% (Carl Icahn increased active stake to 14.34%), YHOO +2.7% (following CNBC report that  Yahoo (YHOO) does not plan to move ahead on Alibaba (BABA) spinoff follow up)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings:  OXM -2.7%, SWHC -1.3%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news:  ONTY -33.3% (presented updated data from its ongoing trials of ONT-380, an orally active, reversible and selective small-molecule HER2 inhibitor being developed for the treatment of HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer), AEZS (-24.6% commenced an underwritten public offering of common shares and warrants to purchase common shares), CHRS -11.7% (updated on its CHS-1701 program, estimates that the follow-on study will cost less than $4 mln and entail about a quarter delay in projected BLA filing timing), KMI -6.2% (announced 2016 outlook; Expects dividends of $0.50 per share from $2.04 per share for 2016; No need to access equity markets for forseeable future), KITE -2.3% (announced $250 mln public offering of common stock), SPLS -1.5% (Staples and Office Depot (ODP) issue open letter after the Canadian Competition Bureau recently announced that it will seek to block Staples' acquisition of Grand & Toy