Asian Mid-session Update: China markets recover on more benign inflation
***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA NOV CPI Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.4%E
- (CN) CHINA NOV PPI Y/Y: -5.9% V -6.0%E (45th consecutive month of decline)
- (JP) JAPAN OCT MACHINE ORDERS M/M: +10.7% (19-month high) V -1.5%E; Y/Y: 10.3% (4-month high) V 0.6%E
- (JP) JAPAN NOV M2 MONEY STOCK Y/Y: 3.3% (13-month low) V 3.5%E; M3 MONEY STOCK Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.8%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT HOME LOANS M/M: -0.5% V -1.0%E; first decline in 3 months
- (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 100.8 V 101.7 PRIOR, M/M: -0.8% V +3.9% PRIOR
***Index Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.8%, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi +0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%, Hang Seng -03.%, Dec S&P500 +0.3% at 2,065
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold flat at $1,075/oz, Jan crude oil +2.1% at $38.31/brl, Mar copper +0.7% at $2.06/lb
- (US) API Petroleum Inventories: Crude: -1.9M v +1.6M prior (1st draw in 3 weeks)
- (CN) China MOF sells 10-yr bonds, avg yield 2.9764%
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.4140 v 6.4078 prior; Lowest Yuan setting since Aug 2011
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 5-10yr JGBs, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGBs, and ¥140B in JGBs with maturity over 25-yr
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$800M in 4.75% 2027 Bonds; avg yield: 2.9703%; bid-to-cover: 2.30x
***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Asian equity markets are mixed, with more benign inflation numbers out of China helping soothe yesterday's decline from soft trade figures and continued commodity rout. CPI rose to 1.5%, above 1.4% consensus and 1.3% prior, which was a 6-month low. Sequentially, CPI was flat after a negative -0.3% print last month. Food CPI lifted to 2.3% v 1.9% prior, and non-food component also improved to 1.1% v 0.9% prior. Reports of other stimulative policy steps also helped to improve sentiment on the mainland. Automakers rallied on reports of car subsidies in the rural markets. Other reports forecast expanded tariff cut in consumer products next year. On a macro level, China state council is considering increase in 2016 M&A activity in sectors such as materials and clean energy that suffer from "serious overcapacity". Also of note, policymakers continued to weaken the CNY currency to further stimulate exports, with today's USD fix at its lowest level in over 4 years.
- After escaping recession, economic data from Japan also continues to shine. Leading indicator machine orders grew by over 10% m/m and y/y - a multi-month high rate of growth on both measures. Govt upgraded its assessment for the sector, stating orders are showing a pickup. Separately, Japanese press indicated the govt is considering allowing GPIF pension fund to invest directly in stocks to minimize management fees. On the fiscal side, local press report indicated the total bond issuance in FY16 would shrink by about ¥5-10T from FY15, with a 20% increase in the issuance of 40-yr JGBs and a decrease in shorter duration debt, as the govt seeks to reduce debt-servicing cost risks.
- Down under, Australia Westpac consumer confidence index retreated with a slight decline. Resident economist noted speculation about GST tax changes may be unnerving some respondents with a more pessimistic view of the economy also cited. Ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ meeting, NZIER Shadow Board recommends a hold even though fixed income markets are pricing in about a 60% chance of a cut. NZD/USD was under more pressure in today's session ahead of the meeting, falling another 30pips toward 0.6620. In other USD majors, AUD/USD traded sideways in a 30pip range above 0.72, while USD/JPY fell about 40pips from the highs below 122.70.
***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- WYNN: CEO purchased 1M shares in open market this week (almost 1% of shares outstanding); +12.7% afterhours
- SBLK: Announces agreement to sell 4 modern capesize vessels for $122M; +12.2%
- AVAV: Reports Q2 +$0.19 v -$0.09e, R$64.7M v $55.9Me; +9.5% afterhours
- PLAY: Reports Q3 $0.12 v $0.03e, R$192.8M v $186Me; +6.2% afterhours
- DOW: SAID TO BE IN ADVANCED TALKS TO MERGE WITH DU PONT; Deal may be announced in coming days - financial press; DOW +5.5%, DD +6.2% afterhours
- HTZ Icahn (High River and other Icahn entities) disclose amended 14.34% stake (vs 11.3% prior) - 13D/A filing; +3.3% afterhours
- YHOO: CNBC's Faber: Company will not move forward with Alibaba spin off; will continue to examine spin off of core business; formal announcement by tomorrow; +2.7% afterhours
- KKD: Reports Q3 $0.19 v $0.21e, R$128.5M v $133Me (1 est); +1.7% afterhours
- MA Approves $4B buyback program (3.7% of market cap); increases dividend 19% to $0.19 (0.77% yield) from $0.16; +0.6% afterhours
- SWHC Reports Q2 $0.25 v $0.20e, R$143.2M v $137Me; -1.4% afterhours
- KMI: Cuts quarterly dividends 76% to $0.125 from $0.51 (indicated yield 3.2%), to use excess cash to fund growth investments; -6.5% afterhours
- ONTY: Announces Phase 1b data for ONT-380 in HER2-Positive Breast Cancer patients with and without Brain Metastases; -28.4% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Skyworth Digital 751.HK +3.1% (Nov result)
- Financials: China Vanke 000002.CN +6.3% (Anbang Insurance raises stake); China Galaxy Securities Co 6881.HK +2.6% (Nov result); Agile Property Holdings 3383.HK +1.6% (Nov result); Yuexiu Property 123.HK +0.8%?(Nov result)
- Industrials: China Railway Construction Corp 1186.HK +0.2% (won project); Doosan Infracore Co. 042670.KR -1.3% (to cut 30% execs); Mitsubishi Heavy Industries7011.JP -1.6% (3rd postponement)
- Technology: Wistron 3231.TW +3.0% (Nov result); NCsoft Corp 036570.KR -1.4% (share buyback); Sharp Corp 6753.JP +0.8%, Samsung Electronics 005930.KR +1.0% (Samsung Electronics speculated as bidder for LCD); Toshiba Corporation 6502.JP +0.9% (ex-presidents may face criminal penalties)
- Materials: China Minmetals Resources 1208.HK +4.0%, Metallurgical Corporation of China 1618.HK -12.9% (impairment, SOE integration); China Steel Corp 2002.TW -0.6% (Nov result)
- Healthcare: Greencross Limited GXL.AU +1.5% (receives interest from private equity groups)
- Telecom: Telstra Corp. TLS.AU -0.9% (plans co-investment)a