Le Figaro : L'État et Renault-Nissan proches d'un accord

L'État et Renault-Nissan proches d'un accord

Le conseil d'administration du constructeur français, réuni vendredi, devrait clore un conflit qui a duré huit mois.

C'est la loi du genre. Entre l'État, Renault et Nissan, les négociations auront été poussées jusqu'à la dernière minute ou presque, obligeant les avocats des différentes parties à un «rush» final pour ajuster la rédaction des textes. Mais, ce vendredi, à l'heure de la convocation du conseil d'administration de Renault, précédé d'une ultime réunion du comité des administrateurs indépendants emmenés par Philippe Lagayette, il devrait y avoir un accord. Sauf coup de théâtre. L'objectif est de mettre fin à un conflit ouvert il y a huit mois déjà, quand l'État est monté de 15,1 à 19,7 % du capital de Renault et y a imposé le régime des droits de vote double.
Pour tous les protagonistes, ce conseil du 11 décembre était en ligne de mire. «Une échéance importante», confirmait la semaine dernière le PDG de Renault et de Nissan Carlos Ghosn au Figaro. Chacun en convient, cette bataille n'a que trop duré et a créé des dégâts à la fois dans les entreprises et au plan politique. Et dans la dernière ligne droite, explique un proche du dossier, «les postures politiques ont commencé à s'effacer». «Chacun a fait des concessions», affirme un autre, «tout le monde doit sortir la tête haute».
«Simple, lisible, explicable»

De source proche du dossier, l'accord qui s'annonce ce vendredi devra «être simple, lisible, explicable». Il devrait tenir, selon nos informations, en quelques points. Le premier, c'est la réaffirmation par l'État de sa promesse de revendre les 4,7 % du capital de Renault achetés en avril. Emmanuel Macron s'y est souvent engagé. Mais l'opération n'a pas encore pu avoir lieu, d'abord parce que le cours de Renault avait chuté cet été - il s'est repris depuis -, ensuite parce que les négociations en cours faisaient de l'État un initié, à ce titre interdit de transactions sur le titre.
Deuxième volet, le gouvernement et Renault devraient conclure un accord, impliquant une modification statutaire du groupe, qui encadrera l'exercice de ses droits de vote par l'État. Objectif: restreindre les cas d'utilisation par l'État de sa minorité de blocage à quelques situations stratégiques dont la définition a justifié de longs palabres.
Respect de l'équilibre

L'enjeu essentiel pour Emmanuel Macron, qui répétait mardi à l'Assemblée vouloir «sanctuariser la capacité de l'État sur des décisions structurantes», est de pouvoir intervenir sur les changements statutaires et surtout sur les opérations éventuelles de fusion, de cession, ou d'acquisition de Renault. Les sujets de gouvernance semblaient ces derniers jours faire l'objet de débats.
Enfin, Renault s'engagera vis-à-vis de Nissan sur le respect de l'équilibre de l'Alliance. Là où le groupe japonais s'inquiétait d'une éventuelle intrusion de l'État français via Renault, des gages lui seront donnés. En revanche, le constructeur japonais ne devrait pas obtenir de droits de vote chez Renault malgré ses 15 % du capital du constructeur français. L'État s'est fermement opposé à cette idée, qui supposait, droit boursier oblige, que Renault abaisse sa part dans le capital de Nissan.

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: PBoC sets Yuan at new 4-year low; Sharp rallies on reports

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Oct Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) -0.2% v -0.7% prior; 4th straight month of decline
- (KR) South Korea Oct Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) +0.5% v +1.3% prior
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND DEC ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 118.7 V 122.7 PRIOR; M/M: -3.3% V +6.8% PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV FOOD PRICES M/M: -0.2% V -1.2% PRIOR; 4th straight decline
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV BUSINESS MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.7 V 53.2 PRIOR
- (NZ) New Zealand Nov Non-resident bond holdings: 67.9% v 68.8% prior
- (KR) South Korea Nov Import Price Index M/M: -1.7% v -3.1% prior; Y/Y: -15.6% v -14.9% prior
- NPD: Nov US total video game sales $2.5B, +2% y/y
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK (BCRP) RAISES REFERENCE RATE BY 25BPS TO 3.75%, AS EXPECTED

***Index Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +1.0%, S&P/ASX -0.2%, Kospi -0.2%, Shanghai Composite -0.9%, Hang Seng -0.7%, Dec S&P500 +0.2% at 2,052

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold -0.5% at $1,066/oz, Jan crudes oil -0.6% at $36.54/brl, Mar copper +0.8% at $2.08/lb
- (AU) ANZ: Average price for iron ore to fall a further 22% in 2016 to $44/tonne - SMH
- (CN) China aluminum smelters reach agreement to halt capacity increase for at least a year - Chinese press
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.4358 v 6.4236 prior; weakest Yuan setting since Aug 2011
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥70B in JGBs with maturity less than 1-yr, ¥350B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥350B in 3-5yr JGBs
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 1.75% 2020 Bonds; avg yield: 2.3840%; bid-to-cover: 3.01x
- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Dec 9th: $4.48T v $4.48T prior; M1 6.6% v 6.6% prior; M2 y/y change: 6.1% v 6.1% prior

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Asia stocks were mixed once again in the final trading session of the week before the focus turns to next week's FOMC decision. Snapback rally in the greenback, particularly against the yen, is supporting Nikkei225 with USD/JPY rising some 60pips above 122.20. AUD/USD was down about 40 pips below 0.7220. In other FX majors, EUR/USD traded down about 20pips below 1.0930 while NZD/USD is consolidating overnight gains above 0.6760.

- China markets are underperforming despite the rally on Wall St as investors look ahead to the weekend release of November retail sales, industrial output, and urban investment. Conspicuous disappearance of billionaire co-founder and chairman of the conglomerate Fosun Group is weighing on sentiment, with speculation of another high-profile graft case. Macau gaming names were also softer after reports that China would crack down on illegal use of UnionPay transaction devices. China currency also remained in focus after PBoC continued to weaken the exchange rate setting to a new 4-year low. On the bright side, a survey out of CLSA saw over 60% of China consumers as optimistic about 2016 prospects for economic growth.

- In Japan, shares of Sharp were much higher in afternoon trade on reports of a potential injection from Japanese banks. Recall overnight there were reports of INCJ in talks to acquire company's LCD business. In notable Japanese press, LDP and Komeito reportedly finalized a cut in corporate tax rate below 30% for next fiscal year. Japan Fin Min Aso indicated there were no plans to delay Apr 2017 increase in consumption tax, even as the govt continues to look for an estimated ¥600B to exclude food from the tax hike. Separately, a local press survey estimated average Japan winter bonus to rise about 3.3%, marking the 3rd straight year of increase.

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- FNSR: Reports Q2 $0.25 (adj) v $0.23e, R$321M v $314Me; +14.8% afterhours
- SUNE: J.P. Morgan Asset Management-SunEdison strategic partnership acquires 333 MW of wind-power plants; +7.8% afterhours
- ADBE: Reports Q4 $0.62 v $0.60e, R$1.31B v $1.31Be; +5.2% afterhours
- NSC: Berkshire Hathaway unit BNSF said to consider a higher bid for NSC than Canadian Pacific - financial press; +4.4% afterhours
- PYPL: Launches merchant pilot program with Wholesaler, Alibaba's B2B site; +1.7% afterhours
- UTX: Raises low end FY15 EPS $6.20-6.30 v $6.25e (prior $6.15-6.30); guides initial FY16 EPS $6.30-6.60 v $6.54e, R$56-58B v $58.5Be; +1.7 %afterhours
- RH: Reports Q3 $0.65 v $0.63e, R$532M v $540Me; raises outlook; -1.3% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Belle International Holdings 1880.HK -5.7% (Q3 result); Goodman Group GMG.AU +0.3% (property valuation gains); Sekisui House 1928.JP -4.1% (9-month result); Dr Ci:Labo Co 4924.JP -9.7% (Q1 result); Sands China 1928.HK -1.9%, Galaxy Entertainment Group 27.HK -1.7% (China to crack down illegal Unionpay POS)
- Financials: Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties 3699.HK -2.6% (Nov result)
China Minsheng Banking Corp 1988.HK -1.7% (Fosun-linked)
- Industrials: Nissan Motor Co 7201.JP +1.2% (speculation to raise stake in Renault)
- Technology: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co 2330.TW -0.4% (Nov result); Quanta Computer 2382.TW -3.6% (Nov result); Acer Inc 2353.TW -0.9% (Nov result); Hon Hai Precision Industries 2317.TW +0.5% (Nov result); Sharp Corp 6753.JP +4.0% (may get additional financial support)
- Materials: Aluminum Corporation of China 2600.HK -0.9% (agrees not to raise capacity); Perseus Mining PRU.AU +3.0% (adjusts guidance); Showa Denko 4004.JP +0.7% (earnings target); BC Iron BCI.AU-21.1% (JV suspends DSO operations)
- Healthcare: Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer 1066.HK -3.6% (Fosun-linked)

>>> US After-hours summary: FNSR +16%, VNCE -9.6%, RH +7.2%, ADBE +4.6


After-hours summary: FNSR +16%, VNCE -9.6%, RH +7.2%, ADBE +4.6% on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: FNSR +16%, RH +7.2%, ADBE +4.6%, DTEA +2.3%, NCS +0.1%.

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: SUNE +3.9% (SunEdison announced that it has agreed to sell 333 megawatts of wind-power assets to Terra Nova Renewable Partners for $209 million), CKEC +2.5% (announces Board authorization for a $50 million share repurchase program), MYRG +1% (announces a $25 million increase in its share repurchase program to $67.5 mln), NAVI +1% (announces a $700 million share repurchase authority), EA +0.9% (disclosed COO Peter Moore is moving into a new role as Exec VP and Chief Competition Officer, leading EA's new Competitive Gaming Division), TRN +0.5% (renews its $250 million share repurchase program).

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings:  VNCE -9.6%, NDSN -3.5%, OHRP -0.2%.

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news:  TRCH -29.1% (filed for 4.36 mln share common stock offering by selling stockholders), JBLU -2.5% (reports November traffic, RPMs of 3,399,688 (+14.2% Y/Y); sees Q4 PRASM down 2-3%), EQY -1.5% (Gazit-Globe commences a public offering of 4.2 mln shares of Equity One owned by its subsidiaries),  LAND -1.4% (announces a 1.1 mln share offering of common stock), TSLA -0.3% (Ford Motor is expanding global battery R&D footprint for EV this year; investing additional $4.5 bln in electrified vehicle solutions by 2020), DE -0.1% (light volume; reports November 2015 Retail Sales update ).

(ZeroHedge) The Next Leg Of The Junk Bond Crisis: Third Avenue "

The Next Leg Of The Junk Bond Crisis: Third Avenue "Focused Credit Fund" Liquidates, Gates Redemptions

 

Moments ago, we learned courtesy of the head of Mutual Fund Research at Morningstar, Russ Kinnel, that the next leg of the junk bond crisis has officially arrived, after Third Avenue announced it has blocked investor redemptions from its high yield-heavy Focused Credit Fund, which according to the company has entered a "Plan of Liquidation" effective December 9.

The redemption block takes place after the fund lost some 27% in 2015, with assets plunging by a whopping 66%.

Not surprisingly, the fund is in the worst percentile with 100% of funds outperforming YTD, however we can only assume that it had accumulated its $789 million in AUM (down from $2.4 billion earlier this year) as a result of being in the top 1% in 2013.

This is what happened, according to the fund manager:

We believe that, with time, FCF would have been able to realize investment returns in the normal course. Investor requests for redemption, however, in addition to the general reduction of liquidity in the fixed income markets, have made it impracticable for FCF going forward to create sufficient cash to pay anticipated redemptions without resorting to sales at prices that would unfairly disadvantage the remaining shareholders.

As a result, all shareholders will be equally disadvantaged.

How long will investors have to wait for the "Liquidating Trust" to become, well, liquid? Quite a while:

In line with its investment approach, FCF has some investments in companies that have undergone restructurings in the last eighteen months, and while we believe that these investments are likely to generate positive returns for shareholders over time, if FCF were forced to sell those investments immediately, it would only realize a portion of those investments’ fair value given current market conditions. We believe that doing so would be contrary to the interests of all of our shareholders, which is why we have taken steps to protect shareholder value by returning cash and implementing the Liquidating Trust to seek maximum value for these investments.

At least it won't cost you anything:

Third Avenue will manage the Liquidating Trust in order to obtain the best overall outcome for the beneficiaries. Third Avenue will not charge any fee for those services.

Finally:

Third Avenue is extremely disappointed that we must take this action.

So is everyone else:

Here is the official statement:

A history of the fund from Bloomberg:

Then again, as Kinnel snydely notes...

What this means is that now that the dreaded gates are back, investors in all other junk bond-focused hedge funds, dreading that they too will be gated, will rush to pull what funds they can and submit redemption requests, in the process potentially unleashing a liquidity - and liquidation - scramble within the hedge fund community, which will first impact bonds and then, if the liquidity demands continue, equities as well.

For those curious, here are the top holdings of the fund:

Keep a very close eye on HYG and JNK now that gates are officially back after a 7 year hiatus.

REuters - France eases telecom merger stance as Bouygues back in play

France eases telecom merger stance as Bouygues back in play

France's Economy Minister said he did not oppose in principle a consolidation of the country's telecoms sector to three operators from four, as state-controlled telecoms group Orange (ORAN.PA) started talks about possibly buying a stake in Bouygues Telecom (BOUY.PA).

A source familiar with the situation told Reuters on Thursday that during a seminar with his board and executive committee on Monday, Orange chief executive Stephane Richard had mentioned new talks with Bouygues about the future of its telecom unit. Orange declined to comment.

"It is a first stage, the project is on the table again," said the source, who added the discussions had focused on how to overcome any objections over antitrust issues.

A deal would reduce the number of telecom firms in France from four to three and would create a new giant that would have a 50 percent market share in fixed and mobile.

Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron had opposed a previous bid by European telecoms group Altice (ATCA.AS) to buy Bouygues, saying in June it could destroy jobs and risked creating a French operator that was "too big to fail".

Asked on Thursday whether he was still opposed to consolidation in the French sector following reports saying Orange was in talks with Bouygues to buy its telecom arm, Macron took a more accommodative stance.

"I had expressed an opinion on that offer which had emerged at the time," he said, "but I'm not religious about the subject in general. It's not a position of principle."

French telecom firms have fought a drawn-out price war since low-cost Iliad (ILD.PA) joined the market a few years ago.

>>> US Close Dow+0.47% S&P+0.23% Nasdaq+0.44% Russell+0.28%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Snap Three-Day Skid

The stock market ended Thursday on a higher note, putting an end to its three-day skid. The S&P 500 climbed 0.2%, but could not hold posture above its 50-day moving average (2,054). Meanwhile, the Dow (+0.5%) and Nasdaq (+0.4%) settled ahead of the benchmark index.

The Thursday advance did not occur without some theatrics as the S&P 500 marked a morning high during the first 90 minutes of the day and followed that with a return to its flat line. The benchmark index charged to a fresh high in the early afternoon, but backtracked from that level to end in the lower third of today's range.

Equity indices spent the first hour of action near their flat lines, but the energy sector (+0.6%) displayed relative strength from the start, which underpinned today's advance. The sector narrowed this week's loss to 3.2%, ending in the lead even though crude oil fell 1.0% to $36.80/bbl. The energy component continued sliding in electronic trade, which forced some backtracking in the sector. It is worth noting that the prolonged weakness in oil prices prompted Chevron (CVX 89.30, +1.70) and ConocoPhillips (COP 49.22, +0.75) to cut their respective capital expenditure budgets for 2016 by 24.0% and 25.0%, respectively.

The energy sector was the only pocket of strength in the early going, but the growth-sensitive group held its ground even as the S&P 500 retreated from its opening high during the early afternoon. The benchmark index approached its flat line around 12:15 ET, but did not dip below its opening levels thanks to late morning strength in high-beta groups. Specifically, biotechnology, chipmakers, and transport stocks got off to a sluggish start, but all three areas settled ahead of the broader market, which contributed to the afternoon push to a fresh session high.

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 329.41, +4.21) spiked 1.3% while the broader health care sector gained 0.8%, narrowing this week's loss to 0.6%. Elsewhere, the Dow Jones Transportation Average climbed 0.6% with airlines rebounding from recent weakness, helping the industrial sector (+0.5%) end among the leaders.

For its part, the PHLX Semiconductor Index gained 0.6% with all but eight components ending in the green; however, that strength was overshadowed by a mixed showing from large cap members of the technology sector (+0.2%).

On the downside, materials (-0.8%) and utilities (-1.7%) spent the day in negative territory with the materials space pulling back after yesterday's 3.1% surge.

Treasuries spent the day inside narrow ranges, slipping to lows just ahead of the close. The 10-yr note settled on its low with the benchmark yield rising two basis points to 2.23%.

Today's participation was relatively light with fewer than 850 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included Initial Claims, Import/Export Prices, and Treasury Budget:

  • Initial claims for the week ending December 5 increased by 13,000 to 282,000 (consensus 269,000) while continuing claims for the week ending November 28 jumped by 82,000 to 2.243 million (consensus 2.167 million)
    • There were no special factors influencing initial claims, which have remained bounded between 250,000 and 300,000 since July 2014
  • Export prices, excluding agriculture, decreased 0.6% in November after decreasing 0.3% in the prior reading
    • Excluding oil, import prices decreased 0.3%, which followed last month's decrease of 0.3%
  • The November Treasury Budget showed a deficit of $64.60 billion
    • The Treasury data are not seasonally adjusted, so the November deficit cannot be compared to the October deficit of $136.50 billion
    • Total receipts in November were $205.00 billion while total outlays were $269.50 billion
    • Receipts were $13.50 billion more than November 2014 receipts while total outlays were $21.30 billion more than November 2014

Tomorrow, November CPI (consensus +0.1%) and November Retail Sales (consensus +0.3%) will be reported at 8:30 ET while October Business Inventories (expected +0.1%) and the preliminary reading of the Michigan Sentiment Index for December (consensus 91.6) will both be released at 10:00 ET.

  • Nasdaq Composite +6.5% YTD
  • S&P 500 -0.3% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.4% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -4.3% YTD