We see the recent share price weakness as a good entry point. Concerns have resurfaced about Casino’s leverage, most of them well-known. While we see continued operating risks in Latam, we see no risks of default for 2016E, which in this context makes the current share price attractive.
--> even if some -ve news on ad revenues and more competition in French Media sector...could look interesting to play a rebound
European Telecoms has outperformed the European stock market by just +3ppts in 2015. For 2016, positive themes include better topline growth, operating leverage, cost-cutting, cross-border M&A, valuation and dividends. Here, we retain our Attractive view of the sector and explore three key themes.
Five reasons why we still view Euro Telecoms as Attractive.
1) Legacy revenue/EBITDA headwinds of voice, SMS, MTR and roaming have almost expired.
2) We forecast better growth rates in fixed-line (fibre, TV, wholesale) and mobile (LTE, data).
3) Operating leverage should shift from headwind (2010-14) to tailwind (2015+).
4) We see scope for cost-cutting. 5) Crossborder consolidation could emerge as a theme during 2016. We see valuation and dividend returns as compelling.
Stock selection. Our favourite stocks are Vodafone, Cellnex, Com Hem, NOS, KPN, Inmarsat, TI, Telenor, TDC and Sunrise. Among our Equal-weights, we prefer BT to DT and Telefonica. We are more cautious on TeliaSonera, TEF D
and Swisscom.
>>> Asset Class Flows
- Equities: $6.1bn outflows (note divergence between $18.6bn mutual fund outflows and $12.5bn ETF inflows)
- Bonds: $13.1bn outflows (largest since Jun’13)
- Money-markets: $41bn outflows (first outflows in 11 weeks)
- Precious metals: modest $0.2bn outflows
>>> Fixed Income Flows
- Huge $5.3bn outflows from HY bond funds (largest in 12 months)
- Huge $1.8bn outflows from bank loan funds (largest in 12 months) (outflows in 19 of past 20 weeks)
- $2.2bn outflows from EM debt funds (largest in 15 weeks) (outflows in 20 of 21 weeks)
- $3.3bn outflows from IG bond funds (outflows in 4 of past 5 weeks) (2nd biggest in 2 years)
- Small $0.3bn outflows from Govt/Tsy funds (outflows in 9 of past 10 weeks)
- Munis eke out inflows for 13th straight week (albeit tiny $12mn)
- Likewise, TIPS eke out inflows for 5th straight week (albeit tiny $47mn)
>>> Equity Flows
- EM: 7 straight weeks of outflows ($1.3bn)
- US: $4.2bn outflows (all via mutual funds)
- Europe: $0.6bn inflows (smallest in 11 weeks) (inflows in 29 of past 31 weeks)
- Japan: $0.3bn inflows (3 straight weeks)
It’s always a labour of love putting together our annual 100 best charts. This
year is a bit different though. We, Fortnightly Thoughts, are hitting two
milestones; five years and 100 issues. Our passion for charts is undimmed
and we’re excited about the swathe we have in here, including heat maps,
flow charts and our ‘Now and Then’ table showing just how much has
changed in the last five years: iron ore down 77%, global smartphone
penetration up to 75% from 19%, 89% more robots sold pa, cost of
sequencing a genome down 97% and total global market capitalisation up
21%.
And that is what this curation is about - change - and the interconnecting
threads that help explain it. We go from the end of the beginning of the EM
era, the rise of EM competition, reversing globalisation, muted global capex
growth, the broad impacts of technology on competition, flows of people
around the world, the economics of having children, how young people are
changing consumption habits and abundance across more and more things.
All of these are connected, and often in multiple ways.
Along with the 100 charts, we also include some thoughtful insights from our
interviewees from this past year. On the following page is the fifth edition of
our annual crossword. The answers are buried in the charts that follow and
will be provided in the first issue next year. Finally, you can also find a list of
our previous issues. Just let us know if you would like them sent to you. Until
then, we hope this chartbook inspires and entertains you.
Dow-1.43% S&P-1.33% Nasdaq-1.35% Russell-1.04% VIX 18.94 (+6.05%)
US Market Closed lower, erasing its entire post Fed advance, S&P closed back below its 50d & 200d MA. Higher cost of financing & Higher USD was to blame to weight on sentiment. Crude lsot 1.7% to $34.95/bbl ($34.64 lows), Energy sector -2.5%. Technology -1.6%, AAPL -2.1%, ORCL -5.1% on Earnings. FDX+2% on Earnings. consumer staples (-1.3%), telecom services (-1.0%), and health care (-1.1%) registered slimmer losses than the broader market while the utilities sector (+0.1%) outperformed thanks to lower yields. Volume were above average @ 920mil shares. US After Hours RHT +6.5%, DLTH +3.5%, AIR +1.2%, DYSL -27%, KNX -10.2% on earnings...Post-FOMC volatility in Asian indices is more subdued than in the US markets, where the initial post-liftoff gains have been completely erased in Thursday's rout. China markets are little changed heading toward the close, with positive property sales data offsetting the troubling Beige Book report. Bank of Japan maintained its overall QQE program of expanding monetary base by an annual ¥80T, but also unveiled a new ¥300B ETF purchase program that will commence at the start of next FY in Apr of 2016. The decision for these new purchases that will track JPX-Nikkei Index 400 was approved by a 6-3 margin.
Nikkei -1.90% Hang Seng -0.05% Shanghai +0.13%
Eur$ 1.0854 CNY 6.4788 JPY 122.08 GBP 1.4941 CHF 0.9939 RUB$ 71.0450 WTI $34.83
S&P-0.26% EuroStoxx-0.99% Dax-0.85% SMI-0.53%
Macro :
- China Beige Book Shows ‘Disturbing’ Economic Deterioration
- Cameron Claims Momentum as EU Offers Compromise on U.K. Demands
- One of the Last Metal Hedge Funds Says China to Bring More Pain
- BlackRock’s $32 Billion Hedge-Fund Unit Has a Little Problem
- China Studies Merger of Aluminum Producers to Cut Capacity: 21st
- Fredriksen Establishing Co. to Buy Distressed Rig Assets: DN
Keep an eye on :
- ABG SM : Banks Agree on a EU113M Credit to Abengoa, Confidencial Says
- AF FP : Air France Has No Plans for Employee Referendum: L’Opinion
- AREVA FP : Areva Sees Narrower Negative Net Cash Flow From Ops in 2015
- BAS GY : BASF’s Gandhi Doesn’t See Hard Landing in China: Handelsblatt
- CRG IM : Banca Carige CEO says group open to mergers but does not rule out standalone strategy - Il Sole 24 Ore
- GBF GY : Bilfinger Said to Have Two Bidders for Water Business: FAZ
- EDF FP : EDF Sees Almost Stable Revenue in France in 2016, Echos Says
- FCC SM : Board said to approve capital increase of up to €710M - press
- BAER VX : DBS, Julius Baer May Bid for Barclays Asia Wealth Unit: Reuters
- MDG GY : CEO Mathias to leave the company; names Schendel as CEO effective Feb 1
- MUV2 GY : Warren Buffett disclosed lowered stake to 2.46% from 3.04% (Took a 10% in 2010)
- ORA FP : Orange Fine Won’t Severely Hurt Co., Regulator’s Lasserre Says
- RNO FP : Renault Accelerates EU1.2B of Clean Engine R&D Investments
- RR/ LN : Wartsila could acquire Rolls-Royce’s marine business or MAN power engine business
- SAF FP : Future Safran Profit Powered by Rising Narrow-Body Production
- SBMO NA : SBM Offshore Believes Brazil Allegations Are ‘Without Merit’
- SDRL NO : Seadrill Partners to Cut Qtrly Distribution to $0.25/Unit
- SHA GY : Schaeffler Makes EU230m Provision for Possible Legal Risks
- SRG IM : Snam Completes Purchase of 20% of TAP From Statoil for EU130m
- STAN LN : StanChart May Attract Bidders as Its Situation Worsens: CLSA
- TFI FP : French Regulator Allows LCI to Become a Free-To-Air Channel
- RIGN VX : Transocean Says Swiss Exchange Approves Delisting
- VWS DC : Vestas Gets 100MW U.S. Order From Undisclosed Customer
- VIV FP : Vivendi Acquired 64.4% Stake in Radionomy Group
- VOW3 GY : Musk Asks Calif. to Force VW to Make More E-Cars: Handelsblatt
- VOW3 GY : Names Ken Feinberg to create a fair and independent process for resolving claims over VW diesel cheating scandal - press - Feinberg has handled similar claims resolution procedures for the BP Gulf of Mexico oil spill and the GM ignition switch recall
- WHA NA : Third Avenue Fund’s Stake in Wereldhave Falls, AFM Filing Shows
- ZURN VX : Zurich to Buy RCIS From Wells Fargo for $675M, Excess Capital
>>> Up
*CASINO REITETATE AT JPM & BERNSTEIN - Note attached
*HENNES & MAURITZ RAISED TO BUY AT JEFFERIES
*NORTHGATE RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT BERENBERG
*SALZGITTER RAISED TO SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*THYSSENKRUPP RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
>>> Down
*ARCELORMITTAL CUT TO SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*FUGRO CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*SANDVIK CUT TO UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES
*SEB CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*SSAB CUT TO UNDERPERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEYA
*VICTREX CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
>>> PT Change
>>> Initiation
>>> Call