The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has lowered its long-term estimates for oil demand but says $10tn of investment will still be needed between now and 2040 to cover future needs and prevent a spike in prices.
The forecasts, contained in the group’s World Oil Outlook, highlight the delicate balancing act facing Opec and its most powerful member Saudi Arabia as its persist with a strategy that puts long-term exports and market share over short-term financial gain.
Lower spending by major companies and oil prices at below $40 a barrel for a prolonged period could have an impact on future oil supplies and lead to a surge in prices.
“If the right signals are not forthcoming, there is a possibility that the market could find that there is not enough new capacity and infrastructure in place to meet future rising demand levels, and this would obviously have a knock-on impact on prices,” said Abdalla El-Badri, secretary-general of Opec, in the report.
Oil prices have halved to less than $40 since Opec decided a year ago it would no longer prop up the oil market, with Saudi Arabia saying it was tired of cutting output to guarantee $100 a barrel for high-cost rivals.
Major oil companies and producer nations have responded to the rout in prices — Brent crude dropped to its lowest level in more than a decade on Monday, surpassing lows reached in the depths of the financial crisis — by slashing hundreds of billions of dollars of investment in new projects.
This has raised concerns that investment will not keep pace with growing oil demand, potentially leading to a supply crunch in the future. The International Energy Agency, the West’s energy watchdog, has also expressed concerns about the impact of investment cuts.
Opec, however, has resisted calls for production restraint and vowed to keep pumping, intensifying a battle for market share that has pushed prices lower.
In the report, Opec states $400bn of oil-related investments will be needed every year between now and 2040 to cover future demand, which it sees increasing by more than 18m barrels a day to 109.8m b/d by the end of the forecast period.
That figure is 1.3m b/d lower than in last year’s report and reflects improvements in energy efficient and carbon emission policies. But it is higher than estimates from IEA, which see oil demand reaching 103.5m b/d by 2040.
“It all means that investments remain huge,” said Mr El-Badri in the report. “In the current market environment what this underlines is the delicate balance between prices, the cost of the marginal barrel and future supply. This balance is essential in making sure the necessary future investments are made.”
Over the medium term, the report sees demand for oil increasing by 1m b/d, from 92.8m b/d in 2015 to 97.4m b/d by 2020.
The report assumes prices will stay below $100 a barrel in the long term but gradually recover from their current depressed levels as supply growth slows and the market rebalances.
The Opec reference basket, which measures the average price of crude produced by its members, is seen rising to $70 a barrel by 2020 and $95 by 2040. That compares with $31.15 for the basket on Tuesday.
The price assumptions, which exclude the impact of inflation, are lower than last year’s WOO when they were $95.4 and $101.6 a barrel respectively. On Wednesday morning, Brent was trading at $36.44 a barrel.
On the supply side, production from outside Opec is seen rising from 57.4m b/d this year to 61.5m b/d in 2025, before declining to 59.7m b/d by 2040. That estimate has been reduced by 2.2m b/d since last year’s publication. Opec crude is seen rising by 10m b/d to a level of 40.7m b/d by 2040.
The report puts demand for Opec crude at 30.7m b/d by 2020, 1m b/d higher than the cartel’s current estimated production of 31.7m b/d.
Opec said it stopped modelling work on the report in the middle of the year, and has since updated its forecasts such that it now expects a decline in non-Opec production and therefore higher demand for its crude.