(ZH) Caught On Tape: Russian Fighter Jets Destroy Huge ISIS Oil Convoy In Tr

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Caught On Tape: Russian Fighter Jets Destroy Huge ISIS Oil Convoy In Transit To Turkey

 
One month ago, after a farcial year-long campaign to "destroy" ISIS, which achieved absolutely nothing but made the Islamic State grow bigger and stronger, culminating with the numerous terrorist attacks in the month of November, former CIA deputy director Michael Morell told Charlie Rose on PBS that the reason the US had never actually gone after the lifeblood of the ISIS regime, its oil supply chain, infrastructure and products, was because "we didn’t want to do environmental damage, and we didn’t want to destroy that infrastructure."
In other words, the threat of a CO2 emissions spike from bombarding a convoy of ISIS oil tanker trucks far outweighs the millions of dollars in funds it would bring and fund the teaching of hundreds of new terrorists how to blow themselves up in the middle of Paris.
As to not "wanting" to destroy that infrastructure, one wonders why: was it because a down payment had been made by the "president" of NATO-member Turkey?
Luckily as the clip below shows, the Russian military, which has had dramatic success in taking out not only the front end of ISIS (such as today's elimination of the top "rebel leader" Zahran Alloush), but the all too critical back "infrastructure" end, has no such qualms.
So much success, in fact, that the "terrorists", as the Russian Ministry of Defense bluntly calls them, have been forced to deploy new oil trafficking routes to escape the Russian airstrikes.
So far, however, this is not helping, and while ISIS continues to transit as much oil as it possibly can to Turkey where it is subsequently processed and sold to the rest of the world, Russia is making sure that as little of this oil survives and can be monetized, incidentally something the US military should have been doing from day one and paradoxically, something it has yet to do.
Here is a clip released by the Russian Ministry of Defense demonstrating the most severe attack yet by Russian fighter jets on a massive ISIS oil tanker convoy.

 

And just in case it is still unclear where these trucks are headed, here is another clip showing ISIS oil trucks crossing the Syrian-Turkish border.

Barron's : European Stocks Could Soar in the New Year

European Stocks Could Soar in the New Year

With inflation and the euro low, and the ECB pumping money into the economy, European shares might rise by as much as 20% in 2016.


Hopes are high for European equities in 2016, as favorable conditions point toward outperformance. But picking the right stocks will be more important than ever.


The Stoxx Europe 600 index could climb to 413 points by the end of next year, up 12.8% from a pre-Christmas close of 366.28, according to the average of forecasts by six investment banks. Analysts at Citi are among the most bullish, predicting a 20% return on the back of modest growth and a modest re-rating.
In general, investment banks are upbeat on the prospects for European and Asian stocks, but tempered in their enthusiasm for U.S. shares because of the Fed’s rate hike, which came while the European Central Bank is still loosening. The ECB boosted its quantitative easing this month, pulling levers to spur growth. QE has pushed bond yields to abnormally low levels. The yield on 10-year German government debt was 0.63% Thursday, but could rise to 1.2% by the end of 2016, based on the latest German purchasing managers’ index readings, according to analysts at Credit Suisse. Returns on high-yield credit in Europe could be in line with coupons of 6%.
LOW INFLATION, combined with falling energy prices and a weakening euro are creating an environment in which economies could flourish. The euro has shed about 10% of its value in 2015, and could slip to parity against the dollar in 2016, some forecasts say. It traded at $1.09 Thursday.
As Europe continues to recover from the crippling euro-zone debt crisis, its growth is slowly catching up with the rest of the world’s. The euro zone’s gross-domestic-product growth is estimated at 1.6% in 2015 and 1.8% in 2016, versus 3.4% for the global economy, up from 3.1% in 2015.
Not everyone is bullish, of course.


Most long-only funds outperformed in 2015 simply by being underweight commodities, says Graham Secker, chief European equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. But he expects 2016 to be different, since European quality names are expensive and the Fed’s tightening creates worldwide head winds. “It is going to be bloody hard next year,” warns Secker.
Morgan Stanley’s forecasts are among the most pessimistic, pointing to no multiple expansion and just 3% upside for the MSCI Europe index in 2016. And history argues for caution: European stocks appear set to fall short of bank strategists’ expectations this year. With only a few trading days left in 2015, the Stoxx Europe 600 index is ahead just 6.9%, short of the 9% gain that was forecast before the year began.
However, George Evans, chief investment officer for equities at Oppenheimer Funds, says that in his 28-year career in asset management, there haven’t been many times “when things have been aligned so positively for outperformance in Europe.” He cites factors including earnings momentum, appealing valuations, and liquidity.
Corporate earnings are projected to grow 7%, according to a consensus of estimates, although they’re likely to be weaker in the U.K., where the benchmark FTSE-100 index has a disproportionately high exposure to commodities.
EUROPEAN EQUITIES are attractively priced. The Stoxx Europe 600 trades for 14.6 times projected 2016 earnings, compared with 15.8 times for the Standard & Poor’s 500.


Some investors think that banks will do well, as low interest rates in Europe lead to a pickup in lending. Deutsche Bank analysts note in a report that the sector’s 12-month forward return on equity has hit a seven-year high, meriting a price/book re-rating. In addition, the Stoxx Europe 600’s financial sector trades for just 11.2 times next year’s estimated earnings, and the banking group’s average dividend, at more than 4%, is the third-highest after the mining and energy sectors’. The analysts’ picks include Lloyds Banking Group (ticker: LYG), ING (ING), Commerzbank (CBK.Germany), and Societé Générale (SCGLY).
Some strategists also see value in oil and gas, although Societé Générale’s prediction of $60 oil by the end of 2016 seems optimistic. Bulls on the sector favor high-quality names, including Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) and Repsol (REP.Spain).
Germany could do well again. The benchmark DAX index is ahead 9.4% in 2015, but it is still reasonably priced at 12.6 times next year’s estimated earnings.
On the flip side, the U.K. seems to offer too much uncertainty. A referendum on Britain’s continued membership in the European Union could come in 2016, and observers suggest the result will be close. But the consequences of Brexit—a British exit from the EU—could be so far-reaching that all concerned are likely to do whatever is necessary to ensure that it doesn’t

>>> Weekly Update

Weekly Market Update: Chipotle Suffers, Crude Awakening

**Economic data:
- (FR) France Nov Net Change Jobseekers: -15.0K v -10.0Ke; Total Jobseekers: 3.575M v 3.590Me
- (IL) Israel Nov Unemployment Rate: 5.4% v 5.3% prior
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Dec 18th: $368.9B v $371.2B prior
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 267K v 270Ke; Continuing Claims: 1.195M v 2.20Me
- (MX) Mexico Nov Trade Balance: -$1.6B v -$2.2Be
- (MX) Mexico Nov Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.3%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 4.1% v 4.3%e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: -32 bcf vs. -28 to -24 bcf expected range

Markets lulled into holiday mode on a shortened Christmas Eve trading day and ended flat, with no discernible sign of a Santa Claus rally. Jobless claims came in largely in line with estimates Thursday morning, and the dollar weakened against most major pairs. EIA natural gas inventories fell more than expected, sending prices higher briefly, but couldn't catch the same momentum as crude prices, which gained for the third straight day. In equity news, Omega's Leon Cooperman disclosed an increased stake in REXI, sending its shares up +28%, and Fiat Chrysler announced a recall of 350K SUVs in the US due to a vanity mirror wiring issue.

For the week, the markets shook off anxieties about rising Fed rates and problems developing in the high yield market, as well as concerns about the inconclusive Spanish election on Sunday, and equity markets lifted on light volume. For the week, the DJIA gained 2.5%, the S&P500 rose 2.8%, and the Nasdaq added 2.5%.

The third and final reading of third-quarter GDP showed the US economy grew at a 2% pace in the quarter. Expectations were for the reading to show the economy growing at a 1.9% pace in the third quarter, down slightly from the preliminary reading of 2.1% reported last month. The slight downgrade was triggered by a larger trade deficit and a smaller buildup in inventories. The November existing home sales report was somewhat concerning, as the annualized sales rate plunged more than 10% from October levels and undershot expectations by approximately the same percentage. The NAR cited a range of possible reasons for the surprisingly weak report, including new regulations that came on line last month, the lead-up to Fed rate hikes and a big rise in median home prices on a y/y basis.

Spain's general elections offered a consolation prize to the anti-austerity camp, but hardly delivered the upset some were predicting. The conservative, ruling Popular Party (PP) won the most seats, but lost its majority as two upstart parties divided the vote. PP ceded a number of seats to leftist, populist Podemos and centrist Ciudadanos, and will either have to look for a partner or attempt to form a minority government, increasing the chances of political turmoil. Spains IBEX index fell more than 3% on the inconclusive election result, while the bond market reaction was more muted: Spanish 10-year treasuries were up a maximum of 20 bps at their weakest on Monday, but had regained nearly half that amount by Tuesday. EUR/USD shrugged off the election almost completely.

In the first half of the week crude futures continued to slide, but with a new wrinkle. Within days of the US Congress lifting a 40 year old ban on oil exports, WTI and Brent prices converged, and by Tuesday Brent has lost its entire premium over WTI. After hitting fresh multi-year lows, crude rebounded sharply on Wednesday and Thursday, helped by an OPEC report forecasting higher oil prices over the long term and by a big draw in weekly DOE crude inventory data.

Nike reported another solid quarter with strong futures orders, but profit taking emerged after shares hit a new all-time high. In the tech sector, Micron mostly met expectations for its first quarter, but gave terrible guidance for Q2, pushing its growth story to the second half of the fiscal year. Home goods retailer Bed Bath & Beyond plumbed a new 52-week low after cutting Q3 guidance, indicating disappointing holiday shopping results. Shares of Chipotle puked again after the CDC announced a second strain of E.coli had sickened restaurant patrons in three new states.

On the M&A front, Pep Boys shares saw more gains as billionaire Carl Icahn is now in an all-out bidding war with Bridgestone. In raising his offer this week, Icahn said he would be willing to outbid Bridgestone by $0.10 a share on any bona fide offer from Bridgestone, up to $18.10/share. Carl Icahn's bid received FTC early termination approval, and now PBY awaits a counteroffer from Bridgestone expected later Thursday afternoon. The FTC rejected Staples' offer to revise its $6.3 billion acquisition of rival Office Depot, casting more doubt on the completion of a merger of the two largest office supply chains. Staples disclosed the FTC had rejected its offer to sell $1.25 billion of contracts in what it described as "an effort to create an acceptable remedy" to concerns that the combined company would have too much control of the commercial market for office supplies.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 18:30 (JP) Japan Nov Jobless Rate: 3.2%e v 3.1% prior; Job-To-Applicant Ratio: 1.24e v 1.24 prior
- 18:30 (JP) Japan Nov Overall Household Spending Y/Y: -2.2%e v -2.4% prior
- 18:30 (JP) Japan Nov National CPI Y/Y: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; CPI Ex-Fresh Food (Core) Y/Y: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; CPI Ex Food/Energy (Core/Core) Y/Y: 0.8%e v 0.7% prior
- 18:30 (JP) Japan Dec Tokyo CPI Y/Y: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; CPI Ex Food/Energy Y/Y: 0.6%e v 0.6% prior
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Nov PPI Services Y/Y: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior
- 23:00 (JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda speech

Friday events
- 00:00 (JP) Japan Oct Final Leading Index CI: No est v 102.9 prelim; Coincident Index: No est v 114.3 prelim
- 00:00 (JP) Japan Nov Annualized Housing Starts: 890Ke v 862K prior; Housing Starts Y/Y: +0.6%e v -2.5% prior; Construction Orders Y/Y: No est v -25.2% prior
- 03:00 (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: No est v 179.6K prior
- 03:00 (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Dec 18th (RUB): No est v 8.20T prior
- 20:30 (VN) Vietnam Q4 YTD GDP Y/Y: 6.6%e v 6.5% prior
- 20:30 (VN) Vietnam Dec Trade Balance: No est v -$200M prior; Exports YTD Y/Y: No est v 8.3% prior; Imports YTD Y/Y: No est v 13.7% prior
- 20:30 (VN) Vietnam Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 8.9% prior
- 20:30 (VN) Vietnam Dec YTD Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 9.4% prior

Weekend data
- Sat: 20:30 (CN) China Nov Industrial Profits Y/Y: No est v -4.6% prior

>>> US Close Dow-0.29% S&-0.16%P Nasdaq+0.05% Russell+0.17%


Closing Market Summary: Stocks End Upbeat Holiday Week on Flat Note

The stock market completed an abbreviated trading week on a flat note as the sleepy Thursday session produced a slightly lower finish for the S&P 500 (-0.2%) while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%) settled just above its flat line. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2.8% and the Nasdaq advanced 2.6%.

The Thursday half-session had the makings of a range-bound affair from the start, considering index futures spent the night inside narrow ranges. The overnight action saw mixed trade in Asia while yen strength pressured the dollar/yen pair to 120.30, where the pair traded through the New York session. Similarly, the few European markets that were open ended the day on a mixed note and there was no news on the Spanish political front.

Once the opening bell rang, the energy sector (-0.9%) slumped to the bottom of the leaderboard and remained there into the close. The sector halved its loss intraday, but returned to its low by the end of the day while crude oil climbed 1.6% to $38.08/bbl. Despite today's decline, the energy sector gained 4.8% for the week and crude oil advanced nearly 10.0%.

Outside of energy, the remaining sectors spent the bulk of the session near their flat lines, climbing into the green during the final hour; however, a late wave of selling sent the entire market to its opening low. The health care sector (+0.1%) settled in the lead thanks to strength in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 339.79, +1.12) climbed 0.3%, which kept the Nasdaq ahead of the S&P 500 throughout the day.

To be fair, the Nasdaq also drew strength from chipmakers, evidenced by a 0.4% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Meanwhile, the broader technology sector (-0.1%) was held back by large cap names like Apple (AAPL 108.03, -0.58), Alphabet (GOOGL 765.84, -2.67), and Microsoft (MSFT 55.67, -0.15).

Above all, today's session saw very limited participation with fewer than 400 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Treasuries are on track to register slim gains with the bond market set to close in an hour. The 10-yr yield is lower by a basis point at 2.25%.

The weekly initial claims report was slightly better than expected, with claims for the week ending December 19 dropping by 5,000 to 267,000 (consensus 271,000). However, it was no different from what has been seen in these weekly reports for some time. Initial claims have been bounded between 250,000 and 300,000 since July 2014. The four-week moving average for initial claims increased by 1,750 to 272,500.

Continuing claims for the week ending December 12 decreased by 47,000 to 2.195 million (consensus 2.238 mln). That left the four week moving average at 2.211 million, up 10,000 from the prior week.

Investors will not receive any economic data on Monday.

  • Nasdaq Composite +6.6% YTD
  • S&P 500 +0.1% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.5% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -4.3% YTD

WSJ : U.S. Pursued Secret Contacts With Assad Regime for Years

U.S. Pursued Secret Contacts With Assad Regime for Years

Effort to limit violence and get president to relinquish power failed

The Obama administration pursued secret communications with elements of Syria’s regime over several years in a failed attempt to limit violence and get President Bashar al-Assad to relinquish power, according to U.S. and Arab officials.

Early on, the U.S. looked for cracks in the regime it could exploit to encourage a military coup, but found few.

The efforts reflect how President Barack Obama’s administration has grappled to understand and interact with an opaque Middle East dictatorship run for 45 years by the Assad family.

Unlike the secret White House back channel to Iran, however, the Syria effort never gained momentum and communication was limited. This account is based on interviews with more than two dozen people, including current and former U.S. officials, Arab officials and diplomats. Most of these contacts haven’t been previously reported.

U.S. officials said communications with the regime came in fits and starts and were focused on specific issues. At times, senior officials spoke directly to each other and at others, they sent messages through intermediaries such as Mr. Assad’s main allies Russia and Iran.

Mr. Assad tried at different times to reach out to the administration to say the U.S. should unite with him to fight terrorism.

In 2011, as the regime began to crack down on protests and soldiers began to peel away from the army, U.S. intelligence officials identified officers from Mr. Assad’s minority Alawite sect who potentially could lead a regime change, according to former U.S. officials and current European officials.

“The White House’s policy in 2011 was to get to the point of a transition in Syria by finding cracks in the regime and offering incentives for people to abandon Assad,” a former senior administration official said.

But regime cohesiveness held, and the crackdown continued.

In August 2011, Mr. Obama publicly called for Mr. Assad to step down.

The administration’s core message never strayed from the U.S. line that Mr. Assad ultimately has to step down. But instead of persuading Mr. Assad to exit, the covert communications may have fed his sense of legitimacy and impunity.

That helped fuel the current wrangling among world powers over the Syrian leader’s future in any settlement. It also hampered the effort to consolidate the international fight against Islamic State.

“We have had times where we’ve said: ‘You could create a better environment for cease-fires if you stop dropping barrel bombs,’ ” a senior U.S. official said. “There’s communicating on specific issues,” the official added. “It’s not like Cuba or Iran, where we thought that we would essentially, in a secret bilateral negotiation, resolve the issue.”

Questions sent to the office of Assad adviser Bouthaina Shaaban about communication with the Obama administration were unanswered.

Throughout the conflict, two core elements of the administration’s Syria strategy—political and military pressure on the Assad regime—often hit a wall, forcing repeated shifts in tactics.

“This is a regime that is very supple politically. They’re very smart,” said Robert Ford, former U.S. ambassador to Damascus. “They’re always testing for weaknesses and pushing the envelope.”

By the summer of 2012, the White House strategy of orchestrating regime change had failed. The U.S. moved to support the rebels, but the effort ramped up too slowly.

“Russia doubled down and Iran doubled down, and it didn’t really have an effect,” a former administration official said.

In the summer of 2012, the administration sent warnings, through Russian and Iranian officials, to Mr. Assad not to use chemical weapons on a large scale, U.S. officials have said.

U.S. officials also talked to Syrian counterparts directly. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns, who retired last year, made two phone calls to Syrian foreign minister Walid al-Moallem to relay the warnings, U.S. officials said.

Fearing Mr. Assad would still escalate, Mr. Obama drew a public red line on chemical weapons in August 2012. Despite the warnings, sarin attacks in August 2013 killed an estimated 1,400 people. And while Mr. Obama threatened military action in response, he instead cut a deal with the regime to remove its chemical weapons stockpile.

For the next two years, Washington shifted its messaging to Damascus to focus on containing the conflict.

There was another reason to keep communication lines open: Five American citizens remain missing or in detention in Syria. Assistant Secretary of State Anne Patterson has talked with Syrian deputy foreign minister Faisal Mekdad at least twice about their fate.

The Obama administration later shifted gears back to diplomacy to get the Syrian government to the negotiating table.

At the center of that effort was a businessman and confidante of Mr. Assad, Khaled Ahmad, who has served as the Syrian leader’s main interlocutor in recent years with Western officials, including U.S. diplomats. Mr. Ahmad didn’t respond to questions sent by The Wall Street Journal.

“Assad was looking for ways to talk to the White House,” said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert and professor at the University of Oklahoma. Mr. Ahmad, a businessman from Homs province, was his point man.

In late 2013, the former ambassador to Damascus Mr. Ford—then a special administration envoy on Syria—met Mr. Ahmad in Geneva ahead of planned peace talks there. Mr. Ford told Mr. Ahmad the U.S. was still seeking a political transition away from Mr. Assad’s rule.

Mr. Ahmad countered that the U.S. and the West should help the Syrian government fight terrorism.

The rise of Islamic State in 2013 caught the U.S. administration off guard. Mr. Assad found in it a better opening to position himself as a partner in a fight against terror consuming the region, and rippling to the West.

By 2014, when the U.S. expanded airstrikes against the militants from Iraq to Syria, State Department officials were making phone calls to their counterparts at the Syrian foreign ministry to make sure Damascus steered clear of U.S. jets in Syrian skies, U.S. officials and others familiar the communications said.

Today, when Washington wants to notify Damascus where it is deploying U.S.-trained Syrian fighters to battle Islamic State so the fighters aren’t mistaken for rebels, Samantha Power, the U.S. envoy to the U.N., dispatches a deputy to talk to the Syrian envoy, Bashar Jaafari, these people said.

The White House says the notifications are not collaboration with the regime. But Mr. Assad has used them to his advantage.

“The regime was re-legitimized,” said Ibrahim Hamidi, a Syrian journalist who until 2013 ran the Damascus bureau for Al Hayat, a major pan-Arab newspaper. “Any communication with the U.S.—even the perception of it—gives them the upper hand.”

This spring, a former senior White House official, Steve Simon, met Mr. Assad in Damascus in a visit initiated and arranged by Mr. Ahmad.

Mr. Simon, who left the White House in 2014, had met Mr. Ahmad at least twice before the Damascus trip, which he portrayed to former colleagues and others as an individual initiative, not made on behalf of the government, according to several people familiar with the meetings.

Mr. Simon portrayed the trip to his former colleagues and others as an individual initiative, made in no formal administration capacity, in response to an invitation by Damascus, those familiar with the meetings said.

He notified former colleagues at the White House and State Department officials of his plans to meet the Syrian leader, these people said. He met former colleagues from the National Security Council, including senior director Robert Malley, before and after his meeting with Mr. Assad.

Mr. Simon outlined steps the regime could immediately take to generate goodwill with the international community: stop dropping barrel bombs; do more to fight Islamic State rather than antigovernment rebels; and cooperate with a United Nations-led effort for local cease-fires.

Mr. Assad responded with familiar talking points, focusing on his fight against terrorism. He showed some openness to local cease-fires on the government’s terms, two people familiar with the meeting said.

In the months that followed, a debate within the White House emerged on whether to redouble U.S. opposition to Mr. Assad or prioritize the Islamic State fight at the expense of the mission to go after the regime.