FT : Citadel outshone by smaller hedge fund rivals in trade war turmoil

Citadel outshone by smaller hedge fund rivals in trade war turmoil
Ken Griffin’s flagship fund was up 2.5% in the first half of 2025, lagging behind Balyasny and ExodusPoint

Ken Griffin’s hedge fund Citadel has been outshone by smaller rivals so far this year, as the firm was stung by the market volatility unleashed by Donald Trump’s trade war.

Citadel’s flagship Wellington fund gained 2.5 per cent in the first half of 2025, according to a person familiar with the matter. Balyasny and ExodusPoint were up 7.3 per cent and 9.3 per cent respectively, according to people who have seen the figures.

Citadel, which manages around $66bn, is one of the dominant players among so-called multi-manager funds, a sector that has sucked in billions of dollars from the world’s largest investors. Balyasny and ExodusPoint manage roughly $25bn and $11bn respectively.

Multi-manager firms have legions of trading teams known as “pods”, which trade a variety of strategies in asset classes including equities, fixed income and commodities. They borrow large sums from banks to juice returns and adhere to strict risk management to control losses, making them attractive to big investors such as pension funds that desire stable returns.

Citadel was wrongfooted by Trump’s tariff policies earlier this year, with Griffin saying in May that the firm had to “tear apart and re-examine the portfolio . . . and ask yourself in what ways we have positioned or mispositioned ourselves against the reality that the odds of a recession have gone higher”.

Last year, Citadel eclipsed most rivals as it delivered 15.1 per cent to investors. It’s annualised net return since the firm was founded 35 years ago is roughly 19.2 per cent.

The Information : Insider-Led Rounds on Track to Beat 2021 Record

Insider-Led Rounds on Track to Beat 2021 Record


The Takeaway
• OpenAI, Anduril investments drive volume
• Value of investments on track to surpass 2021 record
• Thrive, Andreessen among investors that lead repeat investments

Venture capitalists are taking their biggest swings at the startups they’ve previously backed.

The total value of U.S. venture funding rounds led by investors that previously invested in the startups topped $69 billion as of mid-June, according to PitchBook. That’s already higher than the $67 billion volume of insider-led rounds for all of last year. If the pace continues, insider-led rounds will beat the record set in 2021 at the height of the zero-interest-rate investment boom.

Recent OpenAI and Anduril megarounds made up more than 60% of the total volume in deal value this year as existing backers took bigger stakes at higher prices.

Founders are using investment interest from their existing backers to get better terms, such as selling a smaller stake in the company than a new lead investor would require. Startups that choose returning investors can also skip some of the time-consuming aspects of fundraising, such as submitting to intensive reviews of financial operations and customers.

Startups “can just do a more bespoke round with insiders than you could if you were bringing in a new firm,” said Miles Clements, a partner at venture firm Accel.

In April, Clements approached enterprise software maker Linear before the startup had formally kicked off any fundraising efforts. He pitched the company’s founders by noting Accel, which was already on the board after investing in 2023, didn’t need another seat on the board and could limit dilution because it wasn’t a new investor. In June, Accel led the $82 million investment in Linear at a $1.25 billion valuation.

While the deal value of inside rounds has increased, the bets have become concentrated. Some 477 rounds were led by insiders so far this year, a figure that’s flat compared to this point last year. At that pace, the number of inside-led rounds will fall just short of last year’s figure of 1,004.

Firms such as Thrive, SoftBank and others are doubling down on companies they see as leading in AI, finance and defense tech. Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, for instance, led Anduril’s first two rounds starting in 2017, after one of its partners co-founded the startup. It has also led investments last year and this year, bringing its total investment to $2 billion.

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SoftBank Group, meanwhile, is leading a $40 billion investment at a $300 billion valuation in OpenAI. The telecom conglomerate led by Masayoshi Son last fall invested $500 million in a round led by Thrive Capital that valued the ChatGPT maker at $157 billion; SoftBank also bought $1.7 billion in shares from employees and former OpenAI staff.

Thrive, which has backed OpenAI multiple times, is also concentrating investments into Anysphere, the startup behind coding assistant Cursor. In May, the New York-based venture firm led a $900 million financing into Anysphere after leading a round into the company in December.

Demand to back the fastest-growing companies has erased some of the stigma of inside rounds. In years past, such investments suggested the startups had difficulty raising money from new investors. The limited partners in VC funds have also worried that fund managers may pay too high a price for the investments, which can fatten a fund’s returns on paper.

The strategy pays off when a company does well. But when it falters, or collapses, the high prices the fund paid in later rounds exacerbates the fallout.

Sutter Hill Ventures, for instance, provided the seed investments for cybersecurity firm Lacework in 2015 and led at least three more rounds into the company. But the company eventually sold for around $200 million last summer, a fraction of its peak valuation of $8.3 billion.

IVP, meanwhile, led or co-led three investments in Hopin, a once high-flying virtual events company, whose valuation swelled to nearly $8 billion valuation in 2021. But after the end of the pandemic sapped demand for its software, Hopin sold off parts of its business for a fraction of its former price and liquidated its U.K. business.

Nonetheless, more firms are copying the likes of Founders Fund, which has built a strategy around concentrating its investments in the same set of companies. In addition to repeat investments in Anduril, the firm has also led five of the nine rounds in Ramp, most recently at a $16 billion valuation.

“There are just a finite number of businesses of a certain quality,” said Logan Bartlett, an early investor in Ramp and managing partner at Redpoint Ventures.

“If you are in one of them, it would be a totally logical thing to not let other people reap the benefits of the work you’ve already done.”

WSJ : Chinese AI Chipmakers Target $1.66 Billion in Onshore Listings

Chinese AI Chipmakers Target $1.66 Billion in Onshore Listings
Beijing-based Moore Threads plans to raise $1.12 billion

Two Chinese AI chip companies aim to raise a combined $1.66 billion through initial public offerings, as China steps up efforts to achieve chip independence amid an escalating U.S-China tech competition.

Beijing-based Moore Threads plans to raise 8 billion yuan, equivalent to $1.12 billion, while Shanghai-based MetaX is targeting 3.9 billion yuan, according to prospectuses filed Monday with the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Founded in 2020 by former Nvidia executive Zhang Jianzhong, Moore Threads specializes in designing graphics processing units for AI training. The company plans to use the IPO proceeds to fund new AI chip research and development and to bolster working capital.

MetaX, also founded in 2020 by former AMD employees including Chairman Chen Weiliang, focuses on full-stack GPU chips and related solutions. It intends to use the funds to support high-performance GPU research and development.

Both companies aim to list on Shanghai’s STAR Market, the tech-focused board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Moore Threads was added to the U.S. entity list in October 2023, which restricts limits its access to American technology and equipment.

Despite rapid revenue growth, both companies continue to post steep losses as they expand and invest heavily in research and development.

Moore Threads’ revenue more than tripled to 438.85 million yuan in 2024, while its net loss narrowed but remained at 1.49 billion yuan.

MetaX’s revenue surged more than tenfold to 743.1 million in 2024, up from 53 million a year earlier. However, it posted a net loss of 232.5 million yuan, attributing it to the low market penetration of domestically produced chips, limited sales scale of its self-developed GPUs and high research and development costs.

WSJ : Iran Suspected of Scouting Jewish Targets in Europe

Iran Suspected of Scouting Jewish Targets in Europe
German authorities say a Danish national arrested last week is suspected of surveilling potential targets in Berlin

  • German authorities arrested a man suspected of spying on Jewish targets in Berlin for Iran.
  • The suspect, a Danish national, allegedly gathered information on Jewish community members and buildings.
  • The arrest raises concerns that Iran may be planning attacks abroad amid tensions with Israel and the U.S.

BERLIN—Iran is suspected of collecting information on Jewish targets in Berlin to prepare for possible attacks, German authorities said Tuesday following the arrest of an alleged spy working for Tehran.

The man, a Danish national identified as Ali S., was detained by Danish agents last week on the request of German authorities and is awaiting extradition to Germany, the general prosecutor’s office said.

In early 2025, Ali S. was ordered by an Iranian intelligence service to gather information about Berlin’s Jewish community and prominent Jewish personalities, the prosecutor’s office said.

Ali S. is then thought to have driven to Berlin and taken photographs of at least three buildings, including the seat of the German-Israeli Society and another where Josef Schuster, the president of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, had occasionally resided, according to a German official.

The official said Ali S., a Danish national of Afghan origin, was believed to have acted under the instructions of the Quds Force, an elite section of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that is mainly responsible for foreign operations.

The official said the investigation was still in an early phase and that it was unclear whether the surveillance would have led to an attack.

The Islamic Republic and its proxies in the Middle East have a long history of targeting domestic opponents, Jewish people and Israeli citizens around the world, going back to the years following the 1979 revolution that toppled the pro-Western Iranian monarchy.

Last week’s arrest could rekindle fears that a militarily weakened Tehran, destabilized by Israeli and U.S. strikes at home, could be turning to terrorism overseas to hit back at its enemies. The case bears some similarity to earlier Iranian intelligence operations in Germany.

In 2017, a Pakistani national was jailed for more than four years for gathering information about Reinhold Robbe, a center-left politician and former chairman of the German-Israeli Society, which authorities thought might have in preparation for an attack.

“The judge…established in his verdict that the agents had explored all possibilities to kidnap me—or worse,” Robbe told the Tagesspiegel daily recently. “I didn’t notice a thing.”

In late 2023, a court found a German-Iranian man guilty of planning to firebomb a synagogue in the city of Düsseldorf and said he had been encouraged to do so by contacts within Iran.

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades
    • C.H. Robinson (CHRW) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $112
    • Cintas (CTAS) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $221
    • Hasbro (HAS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman, tgt $85
    • Hyatt (H) upgraded to Strong Buy from Market Perform at Raymond James, tgt $165
    • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $57
    • Melco Resorts (MLCO) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $9.50
    • Nike (NKE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus, tgt $85
    • Oshkosh (OSK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman, tgt $131
    • Ovintiv (OVV) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman, tgt $51
    • Ryder (R) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $159
    • Solventum (SOLV) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus, tgt $90
  • Downgrades
    • Avino Silver & Gold Mines (ASM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Roth Capital, tgt $3.50
    • Coterra Energy (CTRA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt $31
    • Hecla Mining (HL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Roth Capital, tgt $6
    • INmune Bio (INMB) downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Scotiabank, tgt $0.60
    • INmune Bio (INMB) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG
    • Lineage (LINE) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
    • Southern Copper (SCCO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, tgt $105
    • Sweetgreen (SG) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $19
    • Textron (TXT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt $85
  • Others
    • Alpha Metallurgical (AMR) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies, tgt $110
    • Amrize (AMRZ) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $57
    • Black Diamond Therapeutics (BDTX) resumed with an Outperform at Raymond James, tgt $11
    • CarMax (KMX) assumed with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $80
    • Carrier Global (CARR) initiated with a Hold at Melius Research, tgt $90
    • Celcuity (CELC) resumed with a Buy at Stifel, tgt $30
    • CleanSpark (CLSK) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley Securities, tgt $16
    • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) resumed with an Outperform at Raymond James, tgt $9
    • CoreCivic (CXW) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $28
    • Crexendo (CXDO) initiated with a Buy at Needham, tgt $8
    • First Busey (BUSE) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler, tgt $30
    • Gen Digital (GEN) resumed with an Outperform at Evercore ISI, tgt $35
    • Genius Sports (GENI) initiated with a Buy at Truist, tgt $14
    • Geo Group (GEO) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $30
    • Hippo (HIPO) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley Securities, tgt $35
    • Kite Realty (KRG) initiated with a Neutral at UBS, tgt $24
    • Krystal Biotech (KRYS) initiated with a Buy at Clear Street, tgt $190
    • MasTec (MTZ) initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital, tgt $210
    • New Fortress Energy (NFE) initiated with a Buy at Compass Point, tgt $8.50
    • Omada Health (OMDA) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord, tgt $27
    • Omada Health (OMDA) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $29
    • Omada Health (OMDA) initiated with a Buy at Needham, tgt $23
    • Omada Health (OMDA) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays, tgt $21
    • Omada Health (OMDA) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $19
    • Omada Health (OMDA) initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $25
    • Porch Group (PRCH) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley Securities, tgt $15
    • QXO (QXO) initiated with a Buy at Truist, tgt $30
    • Rollins (ROL) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler, tgt $70
    • Sportradar (SRAD) initiated with a Buy at Truist, tgt $33
    • Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) initiated with a Buy at UBS, tgt $30
    • Verona Pharma (VRNA) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research, tgt $170

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 1st of July 2025 V3(++)

>>> Up
* Brunello Cucinelli Raised to Buy at BofA (+)
* Hyatt Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $165 (++)
* J. Martins Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 24.60 euros
* Leonardo PT Raised to 63 euros from 60 euros at Morgan Stanley (++)
* LSE Group Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Oshkosh Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $131
* TechnipFMC PT Raised to $40 from $35 at Susquehanna (++)

>>> Down
* 74Software SA Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Arcadis PT Cut to 47 euros from 49 euros at ING (++)
* Deutsche Bank Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 27 euros
* Duell Cut to Accumulate at Evli Bank; PT 5.30 euros
* Holcim Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader
* M2i Cut to Neutral at Greensome Finance; PT 8.50 euros (++)
* Munters Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 140 kronor
* Nexstim Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 10.50 euros
* Pandora Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 1,150 kroner
* Pernod Ricard PT Cut to 85 euros from 94 euros at Deutsche Bank
* Sofina Cut to Hold at Bank Degroof Petercam; PT 284 euros (++)
* Worldline Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)

>>> Initiation
* Amrize Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT 45.27 Swiss francs
* Amrize Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 49 Swiss francs (+)
* BW LPG Reinstated Buy at SpareBank; PT 145 kroner
* Innoscripta Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 200 euros
* Kinnevik Rated New Hold at Bank Degroof Petercam; PT 90 kronor (++)
* Lundbeck Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 38 kroner
* New Fortress Energy Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT $8.50
* Omada Health Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $29
* Omada Health Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $25
* Omada Health Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $20
* Omada Health Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $21
* Omada Health Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $23 (++)
* SED Energy Holdings PLC Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 12 kroner
* Sobi Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT 275 kronor

>>> Call
* Argenx Share Weakness on FDA Report is Unwarranted: JPMorgan (+)
* Baloise, Helvetia Gain; UBS Upgrades Both on Proposed Merger (++)
* Holcim Indicated Lower After Baader Cut to Reduce After Spin Off (+)
* LVMH Shares Rally; Goldman Favors Stock in Next Luxury Upcycle (++)
* Munters Cut at Berenberg on Data-Center Capex Uncertainty
* Vestas New Orders Represent Hefty Miss, JPMorgan and Citi Say (+)
* Zealand Pharma Rises After New Outperform Rating at BNPP Exane (++)

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • PRGS -3.7% (also acquires Nuclia)
Other news:
  • OPRT -1% (responds to comments by Findell Capital)
  • NKTR -1.3% (commences stock offering)
  • AHCO -1.5% (closes on sale of infusion assets, revises guidance to reflect this)
  • BUR -1.9% (issues the following update on two significant developments yesterday; Senate Parliamentarian ruled provisions are not eligible in budget reconciliation bill )
  • YPF -2.2% ( Court ordered Argentina to transfer its Class D shares of YPF (representing approximately 51% of YPF's outstanding shares) to a global custody account at Bank of New York Mellon (BK))
  • IREN -3.5% ( achieves mid-year target of 50 EH/s)
  • AVAV -6.5% (announces $750 mln stock offering and $600 mln convertible notes offering; also files mixed securities shelf offering)
  • AMC -6.8% ( announces collaborative agreement with creditors to strengthen its balance sheet and position the company to prosper from robust box office recovery)
  • DYN -7% (priced an underwritten public offering of 24,242,425 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $8.25/share )
  • INMB -8.7% ( BTIG Research downgrades to Neutral after mixed Alzheimer's data; sees biomarker hints but no clear path forward)
  • DYN -9.7% ($200 mln stock offering)