>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 2nd of July 2025 V3(++)

>>> Up
* Admiral Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 3,573 pence
* Hiscox Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 1,395 pence
* IMI PT Raised to 2,450 pence from 2,260 pence at JPMorgan
* Munich Re Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 650 euros
* NN Group Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 61 euros
* SLB Raised to Outperform at ATB Capital; PT $43
* STMicro Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 32 euros
* Synektik Raised to Outperform at Santander Biuro Maklerskie (+)
* UCB Raised to Buy at BofA (+)

>>> Down
* Adobe Cut to Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $280
* ARM Holdings ADRs Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT $170
* ASR Nederland Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 58.50 euros
* Broadcom Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $280
* Bytes Technology Cut to Hold at Shore Capital (+)
* Cadeler Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Deutsche Post Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 43 euros
* Jet2 Cut to Hold at Panmure Liberum; PT 1,980 pence (+)
* Kongsberg Cut to Neutral at SpareBank; PT 375 kroner
* Land Sec. Cut to Sell at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 550 pence
* Legal & General Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 249 pence
* Lufthansa Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein (+)
* Melexis Cut to Accumulate at KBC Securities; PT 78 euros
* Norsk Hydro Cut to Hold at Norne Securities; PT 52 kroner
* SUSS MicroTec Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 45 euros
* Swedbank Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 260 kronor
* Vestas Cut to Sell at DZ Bank; PT 90 kroner (+)
* Zurich Ins. Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 542 Swiss francs

>>> Initiation
* Cava Group Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $100
* Chesnara Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 300 pence
* Crocs Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $88
* Deckers Outdoor Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $90
* Gjensidige Re-Initiated Hold at Berenberg; PT 250 kroner
* NP3 Fastigheter Rated New Underperform at Jefferies
* Qiagen Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
* Sampo Re-Initiated Buy at Berenberg; PT 11.20 euros
* Tryg Re-Initiated Hold at Berenberg; PT 165 kroner
* Under Armour Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $7

>>> Call
* Apple Shares Gain as Jefferies Upgrades, Sees Upside to 3Q
* Gore Street Energy Storage Fund/The Cut to Underperform at RBC
* Munich Re Upgraded at JPMorgan, Capital Returns Can Surprise
* NP3 Fastigheter at Risk of De-Rating, Underperform at Jefferies
* Sampo Top Pick in Nordic Insurers at Berenberg, Gjensidige Hold
* Traton Pre-Close Call Had Cautious Message on Margins, Citi Says

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 2nd of July 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Admiral Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 3,573 pence
* Hiscox Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 1,395 pence
* IMI PT Raised to 2,450 pence from 2,260 pence at JPMorgan
* Munich Re Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 650 euros
* NN Group Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 61 euros
* SLB Raised to Outperform at ATB Capital; PT $43
* STMicro Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 32 euros
* Synektik Raised to Outperform at Santander Biuro Maklerskie (+)
* UCB Raised to Buy at BofA (+)

>>> Down
* Adobe Cut to Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $280
* ARM Holdings ADRs Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT $170
* ASR Nederland Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 58.50 euros
* Broadcom Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $280
* Bytes Technology Cut to Hold at Shore Capital (+)
* Cadeler Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Deutsche Post Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 43 euros
* Jet2 Cut to Hold at Panmure Liberum; PT 1,980 pence (+)
* Kongsberg Cut to Neutral at SpareBank; PT 375 kroner
* Land Sec. Cut to Sell at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 550 pence
* Legal & General Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 249 pence
* Lufthansa Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein (+)
* Melexis Cut to Accumulate at KBC Securities; PT 78 euros
* Norsk Hydro Cut to Hold at Norne Securities; PT 52 kroner
* SUSS MicroTec Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 45 euros
* Swedbank Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 260 kronor
* Vestas Cut to Sell at DZ Bank; PT 90 kroner (+)
* Zurich Ins. Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 542 Swiss francs

>>> Initiation
* Cava Group Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $100
* Chesnara Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 300 pence
* Crocs Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $88
* Deckers Outdoor Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $90
* Gjensidige Re-Initiated Hold at Berenberg; PT 250 kroner
* NP3 Fastigheter Rated New Underperform at Jefferies
* Qiagen Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
* Sampo Re-Initiated Buy at Berenberg; PT 11.20 euros
* Tryg Re-Initiated Hold at Berenberg; PT 165 kroner
* Under Armour Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $7

>>> Call
* Apple Shares Gain as Jefferies Upgrades, Sees Upside to 3Q
* Gore Street Energy Storage Fund/The Cut to Underperform at RBC
* Munich Re Upgraded at JPMorgan, Capital Returns Can Surprise
* NP3 Fastigheter at Risk of De-Rating, Underperform at Jefferies
* Sampo Top Pick in Nordic Insurers at Berenberg, Gjensidige Hold
* Traton Pre-Close Call Had Cautious Message on Margins, Citi Says

FT : Heathrow fire caused by ‘catastrophic failure’ at substation

Heathrow fire caused by ‘catastrophic failure’ at substation
Finding from official review raises questions for National Grid

The fire that led to the closure of Heathrow airport for 24 hours in March was caused by a “catastrophic failure” of equipment at an electrical substation, according to an official review of the incident. 

The blaze at the North Hyde substation in Hayes, west London, started when moisture got into the “bushing” — material through which current flows in and out of the transformer — causing an electrical fault, the government-owned National Energy System Operator (NESO) said on Wednesday.

The blaze destroyed the substation, triggering power outages for about 70,000 customers in the region including Heathrow airport, Europe’s busiest airport. 

The closure led to the cancellation of more than 1,300 flights and raised widespread questions about the resilience of critical national infrastructure. 

The NESO report found that a high moisture reading in the bushing was detected in oil samples in 2018, but “mitigating actions appropriate to its severity were not implemented”.

The finding raises questions for National Grid, the FTSE 100 company which owns and operates the substation along with the rest of the electricity transmission network in England and Wales. 

Britain’s energy regulator said this morning that it had opened an enforcement investigation into National Grid Electricity Transmission, and that the cause of the fire was “preventable”. 

“In the NESO final report, it has been established that the root cause of the fire was a preventable, technical fault,” Ofgem said in a statement.

National Grid’s transmission division has started an “end-to-end review of its oil sampling process, with a view to ensuring that it is robust,” NESO added.

“In addition, they are undertaking a review and assurance exercise of all recorded oil samples to ensure all appropriate actions have been taken where required.”

>>> What to look at today - 2nd of July 2025

Asian shares dropped after President Donald Trump ratcheted up trade tensions saying he won’t delay the July 9 deadline for imposing higher levies on trading partners. A regional stocks gauge retreated 0.4%. Japanese equities declined 1% after Trump threatened to hike tariffs on the country and deepened his criticism of Japan for not accepting US rice exports. A gauge of the dollar steadied after touching its lowest since 2022 in the prior session. Gold edged down 0.3% Wednesday after two consecutive days of gains. Investors are closely watching how Trump decides to handle the current pause on his April tariffs, which he put on hold for 90 days to allow time for talks. Stock markets - which once swung wildly on trade headlines - appear to see little risk, as equity indexes sit near all-time highs. The calm is being fueled by expectations that Trump will extend his tariff deadline based on his pattern of threatening first and backing down later. Trump for weeks has sought to exert leverage over trading partners with threats to set high levies on governments he sees as being difficult, and then back down - a strategy analysts and strategists call “TACO” for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”  Lombard Odier’s Senior Macro Strategist Homin Lee tells Bloomberg TV that major Asian economies, including Japan, could still reach a trade deal by Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline, noting there is scope for agreements similar to the existing US–UK trade framework. His top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, earlier signaled agreements would be announced after the July 4 holiday and the signing of the tax and spending bill the US Senate approved. Trump’s latest tariff comments don’t pose a major threat to Japanese stocks, said Neil Newman, head strategist at Astris Advisory Japan. Separately, Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax and spending cut bill passed the Senate after Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. House lawmakers are returning to Washington from a holiday week to vote Wednesday on the Senate version of the bill, but face Republican resistance from moderate and ultra-conservative GOP lawmakers. In commodities, gold held an advance, after rallying 2% over the previous two sessions while oil steadied in early Wednesday trading. US After Hours Lots of positive Fed Stress resullts from banks, including dividend hikes; CNC -23.7% lower after it withdraws guidance; VRNT +10.3% higher on Bloomberg report that Thoma Bravo in talks to acquire VRNT

Nikkei -0.47% Hang Seng +0.47% CSI +0.08% Shanghai -0.06% Shenzen -0.79%

Eur$ 1.1793 CNH 7.1643 CNY 7.1664 JPY 143.64 GBP 1.3742 CHF 0.7917 RUB 78.4743 TRY 39.8504 WTI$ 65.49 +0.05% Gold 3,338 -0.02% BTC 106,608 +0.62% ETH 2,443.+1.11%

S&P +0.21% Nasdaq +0.30% EuroStoxx +0.49% FTSE +0.25% Dax +0.40% SMI +0.39%

Macro :
- Bridgewater’s Flagship Pure Alpha Fund Gains 17% in 1H: Reuters
- Japan Says US Tariff Talks Ongoing, No Comment on Trump Remarks
- Dalai Lama Confirms Institution Will Continue With Successor (1)

Keep an eye on :
- ADP FP : Paris Air Traffic to Be Cut by 25% July 3 on Controller Strike
- AVAV US : AeroVironment Offering of 3.53m Shares Prices at $248/Share
- AGS BB : Ageas: Ageas Closes Purchase of Saga's Underwriting Business
- AIR FP : Airbus Said to Deliver About 60 Planes in June, Short of Target
- AZA SS : Avanza Founder Considers Taking Company Private, DI Reports
- BMED IM : Berlusconi Family Sells Monza Football Club to US Sports Adviser
- BIOV SW : Bioversys, Shionogi Enter Into Research Collaboration
- DELM SP : Canned-Food Producer Del Monte Foods Files for Bankruptcy
- DNO NO : DNO Enters North Sea Gas Offtake Agreement With Engie
- DUST SS : Dustin 3Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- ENGI FP : DNO Enters North Sea Gas Offtake Agreement With Engie
- EQT SS : EQT Said to Start Stake Sale in Radius’ €1 Billion Italian Unit
- ENX FP : Euronext Mulls Offering €6.90/Share for Athens Stock Exchange
- FCT IM : Fincantieri Set to Name Moutafis to Lead Expansion in US Market
- GS US : Goldman Plans to Boost Dividend to $4 a Share From $3 a Share
- HIK IM : Ecobat Closes Sale of Italian Business to Haiki
- IBE SM : Iberdrola to Pay Supplementary Dividend of at Least €0.404/Share
- PVH US : PVH CEO Stefan Larsson Buys $1M in Stock, Signaling Confidence in Fashion Company’s Strategy - WWD
- RECSI NO : REC Silicon Board Forms Investigative Subcommittee
- RYA ID : Ryanair June Load Factor 95%
- SAB SM : Banco Sabadell Confirms TSB Unit Sale to Santander for ~EU3.1B
- SFL IM : *Safilo Group in 10-Year License Agreeent for Victoria Beckham Eyewear
- SGSN SW : SGS to Buy ATS in $1.3 Billion Enterprise Value Deal
- 9984 JP : SoftBank’s Ampere Deal Now Faces a More In-Depth Review by FTC
- STLA IM : Italy June New Car Sales Fall 17.44% Y/y
- STLA US : Stellantis Sales Drop 10% in Second Quarter Despite Ram Rebound
- TASE IT : Tel Aviv Stock Exchange Holder Offers About 8M Shares: Terms
- TGS NO : TGS Awarded Offshore Wind Site Characterization Contract
- THRU LN : Thruvision Says Performance is in Line With Expectations
- TKA GY : Germany No Longer Wants TKMS Stake, Seeks Guarantees Instead: HB
- UCG IM : UniCredit Moves 2Q and 1H Results Approval to July 22
- VRNT US : Thoma Bravo Is Said to Be in Talks to Acquire Verint Systems
- WIZZ LN : Wizz Air June Passengers 5.88M
- WLN FP : Worldline to Start External Audit on Risky Ops: Les Echos

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 2nd of July 2025

>>> Up
* Admiral Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 3,573 pence
* Hiscox Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 1,395 pence
* IMI PT Raised to 2,450 pence from 2,260 pence at JPMorgan
* Munich Re Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 650 euros
* NN Group Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 61 euros
* SLB Raised to Outperform at ATB Capital; PT $43
* STMicro Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 32 euros

>>> Down
* Adobe Cut to Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $280
* ARM Holdings ADRs Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT $170
* ASR Nederland Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 58.50 euros
* Broadcom Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $280
* Cadeler Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Deutsche Post Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 43 euros
* Kongsberg Cut to Neutral at SpareBank; PT 375 kroner
* Land Sec. Cut to Sell at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 550 pence
* Legal & General Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 249 pence
* Lufthansa Cut to Mkt Perform From Outperform by Bernstein
* Melexis Cut to Accumulate at KBC Securities; PT 78 euros
* Norsk Hydro Cut to Hold at Norne Securities; PT 52 kroner
* SUSS MicroTec Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 45 euros
* Swedbank Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 260 kronor
* Zurich Ins. Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 542 Swiss francs

>>> Initiation
* Cava Group Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $100
* Chesnara Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 300 pence
* Crocs Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $88
* Deckers Outdoor Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $90
* Gjensidige Re-Initiated Hold at Berenberg; PT 250 kroner
* NP3 Fastigheter Rated New Underperform at Jefferies
* Qiagen Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
* Sampo Re-Initiated Buy at Berenberg; PT 11.20 euros
* Tryg Re-Initiated Hold at Berenberg; PT 165 kroner
* Under Armour Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $7

>>> Call
* Apple Shares Gain as Jefferies Upgrades, Sees Upside to 3Q
* Gore Street Energy Storage Fund/The Cut to Underperform at RBC
* Munich Re Upgraded at JPMorgan, Capital Returns Can Surprise
* NP3 Fastigheter at Risk of De-Rating, Underperform at Jefferies
* Sampo Top Pick in Nordic Insurers at Berenberg, Gjensidige Hold
* Traton Pre-Close Call Had Cautious Message on Margins, Citi Says

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Sabadell (BDSB TH) +2.9%
    • Santander Agrees to Buy Sabadell’s TSB Unit for £2.7 Billion (3)
  • ArcelorMittal (ARRD TH) +2.2%
  • Vestas (VWSB TH) +1.9%
  • Orsted (D2G TH) +1.8%
  • STMicro (SGM TH) +1.7%
    • STMicro Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 32 euros
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +1.7%
  • RENK Group (R3NK TH) +1.7%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +1.6%
  • Munich Re (MUV2 TH) +1.6%
    • Munich Re Upgraded at JPMorgan, Capital Returns Can Surprise
  • LVMH (MOH TH) +1.3%
  • SGS (SUV TH) -0.4%
    • SGS to Buy ATS in $1.3 Billion Enterprise Value Deal
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) -0.6%
    • Lufthansa May Post Profit on Airlines, MRO Strength: 2Q Preview
  • Deutsche Post (DHL TH) -0.9%
    • Deutsche Post Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 43 euros
  • ASR Nederland (A16 TH) -0.9%
    • ASR Nederland Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 58.50 euros
  • Pernod Ricard (PER TH) -1.1%
  • Norsk Hydro (NOH1 TH) -1.1%
    • Norsk Hydro Cut to Hold at Norne Securities; PT 52 kroner

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Munich Re (MUV2 TH) +1.8%
    • Munich Re Upgraded at JPMorgan, Capital Returns Can Surprise
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) +1.6%
    • Zalando Gets Final Regulatory Clearance to Buy About You
  • Deutsche Post (DHL TH) -0.9%
    • Deutsche Post Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 43 euros
MDAX:
  • RENK Group (R3NK TH) +1.8%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +1.7%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +1.3%
    • Germany No Longer Wants TKMS Stake, Seeks Guarantees Instead: HB
  • Traton (8TRA TH) -0.1%
    • Traton Pre-Close Call Had Cautious Message on Margins, Citi Says
SDAX:
  • SGL (SGL TH) +1.6%
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) +1.3%
  • Duerr (DUE TH) +1.1%
  • PVA TePla (TPE TH) -0.9%
  • SUSS MicroTec (SMHN TH) -1.6%
    • SUSS MicroTec Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 45 euros
  • MLP (MLP TH) -2%

FT : European junk bond sales hit record as investors cut US exposure

European junk bond sales hit record as investors cut US exposure
June issuance of about €23bn beats previous high four years ago as companies take advantage of lower borrowing costs

Sales of risky European corporate debt surged to their highest ever level in June, as lowly rated companies take advantage of a capital flight out of US markets on fears over the fallout from President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.

Issuance by high-yield, or junk-rated, companies — many of which have previously struggled to access the market — rose to about €23bn in June, according to JPMorgan data. That beats the previous monthly record, set in June 2021, by roughly €5bn.

June also saw the greatest number of deals on record at 44, according to PitchBook data.

“The market is drowning in new deals,” said an investor at a European credit hedge fund.

Junk-rated companies are responding to a fall in borrowing costs due to greater demand from investors, many of whom are shifting allocations away from US assets due to Trump’s erratic trade policy and concerns about the government’s huge borrowing needs.

Although the US stock market has rebounded strongly in the second quarter, a broad shift away from dollar bond markets has continued, helping drive the greenback to its weakest start to the year in more than half a century. European high-yield bond funds, meanwhile, have posted seven straight weeks of inflows, according to Bank of America data.

Such has been the demand in Europe that companies including bullets manufacturer Czechoslovak Group and butter-substitute maker Flora in the past week have been able to tap bond markets that previously proved difficult to access.

“There’s a massive amount of cash to be invested . . . It’s the kind of market where people are looking at the art of the possible,” said Ben Thompson, head of Emea leveraged finance capital markets at JPMorgan.


KKR-owned Flora’s deal marked the first by a triple C-rated issuer — one of the lowest bands in the credit spectrum — in almost a year. Investor demand for riskier credits meant it was also able to issue the bonds under Norwegian law, a regime that has traditionally been lighter on disclosures and protections than some other western markets.

Flora priced €400mn of bonds on Monday at a yield of 8.625 per cent, roughly four percentage points lower than other outstanding debt with a similar rating, and after the company had to pull another bond deal last year.

Prague-based CSG was able to price new five-year dollar and euro debt at yields of 6.5 per cent and 5.25 per cent respectively last week. That marks a dramatic decline in borrowing costs since its most recent financing, a $775mn bond in November that the Financial Times reported was sold to private credit firms at an interest rate of more than 11 per cent.

Also in the market offering new euro-denominated debt to investors is junk-rated Carnival, the world’s largest cruise operator, which in the past few years was forced to price deals secured on its cruise ships at double-digit interest rates.

High yield spreads — the extra yield over government debt that risky borrowers must pay — have dropped from more than 4 percentage points in April to 3.1 percentage points at the end of June, according to Ice BofA data.

“You can print pretty high risk stuff at very attractive rates at the moment. The market is running red hot,” said one high-yield bond investor. “There are inflows coming into our market as people are looking to diversify away from the US.”

President Trump’s trade policies have prompted many big investors to rethink their overwhelming preference for the US, given the greater level of uncertainty.

“There’s a huge amount of capital flowing into the asset class . . . and we are starting to see larger managers focus more on Europe,” said Thompson.

Issuers with troubled pasts, or those offering complex and subordinated instruments such as payment-in-kind bonds — where interest can be rolled up into the principal to be repaid on maturity — have also been eagerly welcomed by investors with large amounts of cash to deploy.

Footwear giant Skechers last week priced €1bn of bonds, alongside another $2.2bn of bonds that included a payment-in-kind feature, with the euro portion being increased from an initial offering size of €750mn.

“Managers are desperate to invest,” said one leveraged finance banker.