>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: BLDP +4.4%, SUNE +3.6%, MT +3.3%, GDP +3.2%, FCS +3%, HMY +1.8%, CCL +0.7%, GOLD +0.6%, RDY +0.5%, LUV +0.4%

Gapping down: INVT -5.1%, PBY -3.9%, AU -2.9%, FCX -2.4%, CENX -2.1%, CLIR -2%, SLB -1.8%, NE -1.7%, HES -1.5%, CVX -1.4%, XOM -1.2%, BHP -1.2%, BP -1%, RIG -0.8%, BBL -0.7%

(FBR) Fairchild Semi: The saga continues . . . believe ON may raise its offer

Fairchild Semi: The saga continues . . . believe ON may raise its offer

FBR Capital notes FCS received a revised bid from its Chinese suitor "Party G Group." Firm has steadily believed that there were numerous paths to a higher bid for shareholders. While the Chinese suitor's original $21.70 cash offer remains unchanged, new terms have sweetened the deal. First, "Party G Group" offers to reimburse Fairchild for the ~$70 mln termination fee with ON Semi. Secondly, Chinese "Party G Group" would absorb the regulatory risk, shouldering a reverse termination fee to co of $108 mln if the deal were to fail CFIUS. While many details may yet to be revealed, on the surface, firm believes the elimination of the ON termination fee and the transfer of potential regulatory liability limits downside and makes the $21.70 offer superior. With another step in the right direction, firm is once again at Outperform on co, as they believe there is a meaningful probability that ON will raise its bid to $22 and perhaps higher. (They can rationalize $24.)

>>> SunEdison acquires a 33% ownership interest in a 336 megawatt DC portfolio o

SunEdison acquires a 33% ownership interest in a 336 megawatt DC portfolio of operating solar power plants from Dominion (D), transfers interest to Terra Nova Renewable Partners
The co announced that it has acquired a 33% ownership interest in a 336 megawatt DC portfolio of operating solar power plants from Dominion (D) for an equity purchase price of $180 million plus a working capital adjustment. Terra Nova Renewable Partners, the strategic equity partnership formed between SunEdison and institutional investors advised by J.P. Morgan Asset Management -- Global Real Assets, simultaneously acquired SunEdison's interest in the transaction.
  • This acquisition is the first of two phases of a deal announced in September of 2015. The entire solar portfolio consists of 24 projects, with a total capacity of 567 megawatts DC, located in Indiana, Georgia, Connecticut, California, Tennessee, and Utah. This first phase of the transaction is for 15 projects that generate 336 megawatts DC, and the second acquisition is for the remainder of the aggregate 567-megawatt DC portfolio. The second phase of the transaction is expected to close in early 2016.
  • The solar portfolio's power output has been contracted with industry leading utilities and power offtakers with a weighted remaining contract term of 19.8 years. The partnership, through an indirect subsidiary, has the option to buy the remaining 67 percent of the portfolio upon the occurrence of certain triggering events.
SunEdison has the option to repurchase the projects from the partnership for a period of five years and may assign TerraForm Power (TERP) call rights to the projects should they be repurchased. Any projects not repurchased by SunEdison would continue to be owned by the partnership.
S

FT : Activists take aim at muddling midsized banks

Activists take aim at muddling midsized banks

Dozens of regional lenders in the US, from People’s United of Bridgeport, Connecticut to Umpqua Holdings of Portland, Oregon, are at present making less than a 10 per cent return on equity. All should listen out for a knock on the door from PL Capital Advisors, a New Jersey-based activist determined to shake up a flabby and fragmented part of the banking sector.
PL, which made its name forcing change at small, community-focused banks, is about to launch a new fund to go after bigger targets, seeking to exploit disenchantment with feeble profits among institutional investors and a friendlier regulatory attitude toward mergers.
Other activists are preparing for battle, from Basswood Capital Management and Stillwell Value, both New York hedge funds, to Seidman & Associates of New Jersey.
Now that banks have steadied themselves after the crisis, there is a sense of “back to basics,” says Rich Lashley, one of PL’s two principals. “More and more [merger] discussions are going on behind the scenes. Everyone is trying to figure out if they are a buyer or a seller.”
Years of low growth, ultra-easy monetary policy and post-crisis regulations have squeezed profits for hundreds of American banks, forcing them to rely on cutting costs to improve margins. But many of the 1,156 publicly listed lenders are still posting returns well below their cost of capital, despite running down expenses as far as they will go. The obvious solution? Merge — or at least find very good reasons not to.
“Banks need to stop kidding themselves that [higher interest] rates are going to save them,” says Nathan Stovall, an analyst at SNL Financial. “Hope is not a strategy.”
Observers note that the backdrop for the activists has improved. Seven years on from the depths of the Lehman crisis, regulators still seem opposed to deals involving JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup or Bank of America, which remain under pressure to shrink and become less complex. But the banks beneath them appear to have a green light to get bigger.
One Wall Street dealmaker notes that BB&T of Winston-Salem, North Carolina, has done three chunky acquisitions in a little over a year. He concludes that the US Federal Reserve wants to see more “super-regional” lenders challenging US Bancorp, PNC Financial Services and Capital One beneath the top tier.
“If I’m [Daniel] Tarullo, I want ten of these guys, not three,” he says, referring to the Fed’s lead banking supervisor.
In one successful strike for activism, New York Community Bancorp agreed a $2bn deal in October with New York-based Astoria Financial. Astoria had been targeted by Basswood, which disclosed a 9.22 per cent stake in July and said it had requested a board seat. In its filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission, Basswood argued that Astoria had “substantial opportunities . . . to take steps to enhance shareholder value.”
More deals are beginning to flow. Since the end of September, New York’s M&T Bank was cleared to complete a $3.7bn merger with Hudson City, a regional rival, after a three-year wait, while KeyCorp of Cleveland announced a $4bn tie-up with Buffalo-based First Niagara.

First Niagara, a $39bn-in-assets bank which had achieved a double-digit ROE in just one of the past 20 years, is a “classic example” of the kind of subpar performer PL is planning to go after, according to Mr Lashley of PL. He says he aims to raise about $200m from rich individuals, and is ready to team up with other activist funds to increase his negotiating power.
Others on PL’s potential hit-list — between $5bn and $75bn in assets, and a single-digit ROE — include Comerica, a Dallas-based lender getting to grips with the oil slump, and Zions Bancorp, a Salt Lake City-based bank which the Fed judged to be short of capital last year. All told, that group of 79 lenders accounts for $1.18tn of assets, or about one-tenth of the listed US banking sector.
Activism in bank stocks poses particular challenges. Under the Bank Holding Company Act, no investor can accrue a stake of more than 10 per cent in a bank without first becoming a bank itself. That has encouraged fund managers to take small stakes in their targets, often appealing to managers behind closed doors rather than shaking fists in public.
“If you want to get honey you can’t kick over the beehive,” says Christopher Marinac, co-founder of FIG Partners, an Atlanta-based research and advisory boutique.
That is the modus operandi of Larry Seidman of Seidman & Associates, a Parsippany, New Jersey-based firm which has challenged dozens of bank management teams over the years.
Now that regulatory requirements have “dramatically increased,” he says, it is easier to make the case that executives need to consider radical action.
At these kind of size levels, in this kind of environment, “you’ve got to be really, really good to earn a decent ROE. And if you can’t, you have an obligation as a director to do something about it.”

>>> Edison targets Eni Gas & Power - Il Sole 24 Ore

Edison targets Eni Gas & Power

Edison, the Italian subsidiary of listed French energy and utility group EDF, is considering making a bid for Eni Gas & Power, Italian language daily Il Sole 24 Ore reported. The unsourced report said that Edison could make an offer in 2016.

The report said that Eni Gas & Power is valued at a minimum of EUR 2bn. The item said that parent, listed energy and petroleum group Eni is looking to focus on its core upstream business and is looking to either sell or list Eni Gas & Power.

The report said that listed UK gas group Centrica and international investment funds are also believed to be interested in Eni Gas & Power.

The report added that Edison could partner with F2i, the Italian infrastructure fund, in any bid.

The report said that the acquisition could open the way for Edison to list on the Italian Stock Exchange.

Il Sole 24 Ore

WSJ : Divergence Between Fed, Other Central Banks to Test Global Economy

Divergence Between Fed, Other Central Banks to Test Global Economy

U.S. prepares to keep raising interest rates while Europe, Japan are still easing; currencies and trade could face turbulence

The global economy will be tested by an unusual divergence among the world’s leading central banks in the year ahead: The Federal Reserve is poised to continue raising interest rates while its counterparts in Europe and Japan engage in full-throttle monetary easing.

The U.S. dollar has already strengthened nearly 25% in the past 18 months as investors began to anticipate the prospect of higher U.S. rates. That high exchange rate has already been blamed for crimping exports and putting deflationary pressure on the U.S., and could be a key source of risk for the economy in 2016.

“It will be an interesting experiment,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist for the consultancy Capital Economics. “It depends how far everyone goes in opposite directions. Certainly we’re going to get another drag on U.S. exports.”

The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Fed have typically moved in unison since the euro’s launch in 1999. The booming global economy of the late 1990s led all three to raise rates into the year 2000. From 2001 to 2003 all three cut rates in the aftermath of the collapsing tech bubble. Even Japan raised its target rate briefly in 2000, only to lower it back to zero in 2001.

This pattern repeated in the years around the global financial crisis, with the central banks raising rates into 2006 or 2007 but then sharply cutting them as the severity of the recession became clear.

Moving in unison helps buffet currencies from swinging around too wildly. If everyone is cutting or raising rates, there’s less pressure to switch from one currency to another. But if the U.S. offers much higher rates than Europe, it could prompt even more global investors to buy dollars.

The divergence could become quite significant. The Fed has stopped printing money and initiated a quarter-point rate increase in December. Fed officials have estimated they will raise rates one percentage point in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Meanwhile, the ECB in December cut its deposit rate to minus-0.3% from minus-0.2%, meaning institutions have to pay even more to park money there, and has pledged to continue its bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, through March 2017.

If increases put too much pressure on the U.S. economy, the Fed may have to stop raising rates or even reverse course. That was the outcome for the ECB in 2011, when it briefly attempted to raise rates while the Fed was still in the midst of an easing program. The ECB quickly found the eurozone economy wasn’t strong enough to sustain higher rates. The European stock market tumbled and the continent’s debt crisis intensified. By the end of the year, the ECB cut rates.

A similar outcome in the U.S. is not unthinkable, and officials may have to change policy to address it, said Megan Greene, the chief economist for John Hancock Asset Management. “If their mandate is financial stability, they have a responsibility to respond to huge asset movements,” she said.

The divergence could prompt changes in Europe and Japan, too. The flip side of a stronger dollar would be a weaker euro and yen. That could help lift their economies, boosting their manufacturing sectors and providing a more effective stimulus in those economies. “The Fed will do some of the BOJ and ECB’s work for them,” Ms. Greene said.

U.S. exporters and manufacturers could be especially at risk as the divergence plays out. From 2010 to 2014, the U.S. added over 800,000 jobs in durable-goods manufacturing, boosted in part by rising exports. Since March 2015, those jobs have been in decline again.

“Manufacturing has been relatively disappointing,” said Chad Moutray, chief economist at the National Association of Manufacturers. “For the Fed to continue raising rates, they’re going to be looking for progress in the broader economy and that obviously includes manufacturing.”

A strong dollar would also tend to keep commodity prices lower. That would benefit many consumers and businesses that are helped by lower import prices. But it would continue the woes of America’s oil-production industry, another sector of the economy that had been a source of job growth through 2014 but is now shrinking.

WSJ : Rio Tinto: New Spending Is a Hard Sell

Rio Tinto: New Spending Is a Hard Sell

More cost-cutting and a recovery in commodity prices are needed for figures to add up

“What do you need to believe?” analysis in biotech asks what is needed to justify big prices for risky drugs in development. It might have use in mining as well.

Rio Tinto has outshone peers this year, thanks to low-cost iron ore operations and a relatively robust balance sheet. It has recently distinguished itself by moving toward new investment, approving a $1.9 billion Australian bauxite project and completing financing for a $4.9 billion extension to a Mongolian copper mine.

The latter isn’t likely to be approved by Rio’s board until next year. But both projects are in Rio’s spending guidance, for $5 billion next year and $7 billion in 2017.

The latter figure will surely fall. Cost deflation is helping; the $4.9 billion price tag attached to the Mongolian project is under review. But a quick look at Rio’s cash flows suggests the type of recovery needed to underpin its decisions.

Rio’s 2017 operating cash flow would be $5.6 billion, based on mid-December’s spot prices, says Morgan Stanley. Out of that must come investment and Rio’s dividend of about $4 billion.

Suppose Rio cuts its forecast spending for 2017 by 30%. That still would leave a $3.3 billion cash flow hole to fill. A 10% move in iron ore prices, currently languishing at about $41 a metric ton, adds about $1 billion to Rio’s cash flows, based on its latest guidance.

Rio is eyeing its longer-term future, but that is a tough sell with investors fixated on low spot prices and a gloomy demand outlook for most commodities. To make the sums work, it needs a pretty substantial recovery in commodities prices and serious additional cost-cutting. Otherwise, its balance sheet will take the strain.

WSJ : Following the Migrant Money Trail

Following the Migrant Money Trail

People-smuggling trade depends on hawala transfers—largely with no paper trail and often outside the law; new attention on terror financing

ISTANBUL—Behind the reinforced door of an unmarked office in this teeming immigrant neighborhood, a man who goes by the name of Hawez Zaman moves money the same way his predecessors in the Middle Ages did, in an off-the-books transfer system key to today’s spiraling migrant crisis in Europe.

The centuries-old system known as hawala enables users to transfer money from one point to another entirely on the basis of trust—largely without a paper trail and often outside the law.

It is the dominant way migrants flooding into Europe pay for their journeys, used for 90% of the transactions in a people-smuggling trade valued at around $2.5 billion a year in Europe, according to European security officials and researchers. It is used for a further $390 billion a year migrants send back home as part of an informal but widely accepted financial system used across the developing world.

The money flows enabling migrant travel are also drawing renewed attention among terrorist finance investigators, who since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks have tried to monitor hawala systems. “Given what we’ve seen so far, we have very strong suspicions terrorists receive money via hawala,” said Calogero Ferrara, a Palermo-based prosecutor heading a large pan-European people-smuggling investigation. “After the Paris attacks, we have intensified investigations on this front.”

Investigators haven’t found evidence that hawala was used to move money in the Nov. 13 attacks in the city, which killed 130.

Western security officials from nations involved in the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State have warned that the jihadists are using hawala to transfer money from the group’s headquarters in Syria and Iraq to its affiliate in Libya and possibly other regions. A United Nations report in November echoed that warning.

“We are very concerned about hawala being used by ISIS inside and outside of the territory it dominates,” one Western security official said, using another term for the militant group, adding the payment mechanism is an important “part of the ISIS financial infrastructure.”

In Istanbul each day, Mr. Zaman, a stocky 32-year-old Iraqi Kurd, said he receives up to 200 cash payments of €1,500, or about $1,600, on behalf of migrants from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan who are paying smugglers for the first leg of the journey from Turkey to Greece on the way into the European Union.

He also moves money every day unrelated to migrant smuggling in amounts from a few hundred dollars to the thousands.

When migrants reach their destination in Greece, Germany or beyond, Mr. Zaman said he makes a virtual transfer to an associate hawala dealer, or hawaladar, who releases the money at the other end to the smugglers.

For each payment, Mr. Zaman said he charges roughly 5%—or a bit more than half the percentage typically demanded by established money-transfer agents. He saves money by not having to pay compliance, infrastructure and other costs that licensed agents have.

Hawala is also often quicker—a transfer can be almost instantaneous—and can easily reach people in remote areas. Customers include those with low levels of literacy, no bank accounts or credit cards and sometimes no identification documents.

Criminals, meanwhile, like the absence of transaction records, which eliminates the money trail officials use to discover and prosecute crimes. In the traditional system, short-term records are destroyed when transactions are settled, and the use of Skype, Viber and WhatsApp to organize the payments helps elude detection.

“The ‘follow the money’ method doesn’t apply here,” said Andrea Di Nicola, a lecturer in criminology at the University of Trento. “This is a very serious problem, because the movement of money tells you a lot about how the criminal organization works.”

The traditional, no-records system is illegal in most countries. Many hawala dealers operate legally in the Mideast, Africa and South Asia if they register and pay tax, and a highly regulated, licensed form—which requires record-keeping akin to modern money-transfer services—is legal in some Western countries. But few brokers become licensed in EU member states such as the U.K. or Germany, according to a 2013 report by the Financial Action Task Force on money laundering.

“It’s a big problem for the police,” said Patrik Engström, head of Sweden’s border police, which has detected cases of migrants there using hawala to pay for relatives in Italy, Libya, Turkey and Iraq to join them. “Transactions are much harder to trace—where they came from and where they went, who made them and who received them.”

Mr. Zaman operates illegally in a district that has emerged as a global hub for the hawala trade: Aksaray, a hardscrabble neighborhood close to Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar known as “little Syria.” It is one of the world’s largest crossroads for Syrian refugees.

The name is one of the pseudonyms the trader uses in his business—different names for different sets of clients.

Mr. Zaman pours profits into expanding his network and paying off local criminals and police to protect the business.

“People fleeing war zones don’t want to use banks or Western Union; Hawala is easier and something they trust,” said Mr. Zaman. Pulling on a Marlboro, he took calls from clients arriving on the Greek island of Lesbos requesting that money be released to pay smugglers. “This is one of the fastest-growing businesses in Istanbul,” he said. “I would migrate myself, but the money is too good.”

Mr. Zaman said he had no qualms about processing payments that go to human smugglers. “Many smugglers are Syrian and they help refugees reach safety,” he said. “We are helping to finance that and helping them get their money out of Syria.”

Fast delivery
Hawala, or “transfer” in Arabic, first flourished among medieval traders who used it to pay for transactions without sending money or gold along treacherous trading routes. It took root over the centuries in the Middle East, South Asia and parts of Africa.

It is now present in virtually every community established by Muslim and Indian migrant workers in Europe, North America and the Middle East. Chinese migrants use a similar system that they call fei-chien, or “flying money.”

Hawaladars guarantee delivery to recipients within 48 hours, no matter how remote the destination. Funds of all sizes are transferred with no legal contracts. Recipients are given only a code number or simple token, such as a banknote torn in half, as proof that money is due.

Over time, transactions among the brokers mostly cancel each other out. If hawaladars do build up credits or debits, they can settle them through bank transfers in jurisdictions such as Dubai, a global center for hawala clearance, or by carrying cash or valuables like jewelry across borders.

In transit hubs like Istanbul or the coastal city of Izmir, hawala dealers are often based in backrooms of legitimate businesses, like money changers, jewelers or tea houses. Some use official cross-border transactions to settle hawala payments. Last year in Italy, prosecutors found carpet importers from Iran and Afghanistan acting as hawaladars. Officials believe they settled hawala debts by overstating or understating invoices tied to carpet transactions.

Despite its informal nature, cheating and fraud are rare within hawala networks, which are based on tight ethnic or tribal relationships.

“If someone doesn’t go by the rules, he will be ostracized forever,” said Nikos Passas, a Northeastern University professor who has studied hawala. Moreover, a hawaladar’s family and legitimate business could suffer if he defrauded a customer, he added.

Mr. Passas cited the case of a U.K. hawaladar who gambled away customers’ money, causing losses to fellow brokers in Pakistan and Britain. The broker was kicked out of the network and the other brokers shared the losses, he said. In case of disputes between brokers, an elder hawaladar or a committee hears out the two sides and settles the dispute.

Since 9/11, U.S. Treasury officials have worked extensively with other nations in which hawala is a major financial tool to try to stop terror financiers and better regulate those services.

In 2010, Faisal Shahzad, who admitted he tried to detonate a car bomb in Times Square in New York, told investigators that he used hawala money transfers to collect about $12,000 to pay for the attempt.

In 2011, a U.S. District Court in St. Paul, Minn., convicted two Somali-American women of having routed $10,000 to al-Shabaab, the Somali Islamist insurgency the U.S. classifies as a terrorist group, using hawala.

One current case highlights the connection between people smuggling and terrorism. Prosecutors in Sassari, Sardinia, ordered the arrest last April of 22 Pakistan and Afghanistan nationals, alleging they had smuggled people into Italy and collected donations from the Italian Muslim community. According to the charges, the funds were transferred to Pakistan and Afghanistan via hawala, and they were used to finance terrorist attacks in Pakistan.

Prosecutors said the group has had contacts with Islamic State. A trial started this month in Sardinia.

“We are extremely worried about ISIS,” said Danilo Tronci, the leading prosecutor in the case. “We suspect money is now flowing via hawala to ISIS in Syria.”

Other Italian prosecutors say investigations show large proceeds coming from people smuggling have been transferred via hawala to areas of Syria and Iraq that are controlled by Islamic State. Prosecutors also say they believe smugglers pay fees to Islamic State in areas the group controls in Libya.

Hawala is also a vehicle for other criminal activity. In 2010, as much as half of Somali ransom proceeds, or roughly $100 million, flowed out of the country via hawala, according to researchers at Dalhousie University. Four years ago, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned Afghanistan’s largest hawala group, alleging it had moved billions of dollars on behalf of corrupt officials, the Taliban and drug kingpins.

But experts say that even though the human-smuggling trade is growing, criminal activity represents a tiny fraction of overall hawala transfers.

Kind of insurance
The use of hawala has expanded with the more than two million migrants who have poured into Europe since 2008. According to European prosecutors and aid groups, migrants use hawala so that they don’t travel with large sums of money through countries where they can be easily robbed, such as Sudan and Libya.

On the Balkan route from Turkey, they sometimes entrust the sum needed for the whole trip to a hawaladar at the starting point of their journey, who then pays smugglers for each leg once migrants arrive at each destination. The hawala serves as a kind of insurance—money is held by the third party until the migrant is safely delivered to his destination.

When migrants arrive on Lesbos, the Greek island that has seen about half a million mostly Syrian refugees arrive this year, they tear open sealed plastic bags holding their cellphones. They call hawala dealers, who then release to the smugglers the money that ensured safe passage.

“It was easy, very easy, to send the money,” recalls Osama, a 26-year-old Syrian-born carpenter living in Berlin who declined to give his last name. He used hawala to pay smugglers to ferry a cousin from Turkey to Greece. He transferred the €1,500 from a Turkish jeweler in Berlin to a Kurdish cafe owner in Istanbul, both of whom moonlight as hawala dealers.

For Said, a 40-year-old Afghan now in Italy, hawala was part of everyday life. When he worked in Tehran for a subsidiary of an Afghan company exporting medicines to Afghanistan, the company used hawala to make payments to its Kabul headquarters. Said, who declined to give his last name, sent money home using the network. U.S. and U.N. sanctions on Iran related to its nuclear program bar large international banking transactions with the country, making hawala one of the few options to move money across its borders.

This summer Said decided to emigrate, first traveling from Tehran to Istanbul. His wife sent him €1,000 via hawala from Iran to Istanbul, paying a 3% fee. Said used hawala for the rest of his journey.

“In Afghanistan, it’s something common and normal,” said Said, who has applied for asylum in Italy, planning to bring his wife later. “When we had to move money from Iran to Turkey, that was the only option.”

The huge flow of migrants into Europe has set off a scramble among official money-transfer companies to take a slice of the business from hawala. Mobile wallets and online transfer services with rock-bottom fees are increasingly targeting migrants for the remittances they send home.

Ria Money Transfer, a subsidiary of Kansas-based Euronet Worldwide, is lowering transfer charges below hawala’s typical 5% rate to target the migrant remittances market.

“The only way to beat hawala is to be efficient, lower internal costs and open new branches to reach more locations,” said managing director Sebastian Publins. Ria has opened in Eritrea and plans to expand in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Eventually, “customers who may have sent money informally, will come to us.”

In November, the EU launched an initiative to encourage transfer companies to lower their fees to less than 3%, in part to discourage the use of informal networks.

Established hawala dealers are working to defend their territory. Facebook pages aimed at the Syrian diaspora in Europe advertise their ability to transfer money back to Syria.

One Arabic-language posting touted hawala’s ability to move money in the Middle East, Greece, Germany and Serbia. In response to questions sent by WhatsApp to the number on the posting, a Syrian who declined to be named said he runs a hawala business from a travel and money-exchange shop in Turkey.

His network sends about $20,000 a day around the world, taking a 5% cut, he said. The broker said he expects profits to rise by 50% this year, in part due to surging demand from migrants in Europe, particularly in Syria and Germany.

He said his network has been recruiting to meet demand, adding 30 brokers in the past year to reach 100 total members.

In the Istanbul neighborhood of Aksaray, the explosion of business has sparked a turf war between gangs, locals and security officials say, with organized criminal groups competing violently.

“We have to pay a lot of people and we have a lot of security,” said Mr. Zaman, who said he has been taking 500 calls a day and sometimes sleeps only a couple of hours a night. “But I have a history in this trade so I can protect myself.”