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RTRS - SKANSKA AB SKAb.ST SAYS AT THIS STAGE IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO DETERMINE IF SKANSKA BRASIL IS LIABLE AND IF FOUND LIABLE IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO DETERMINE AMOUNT OF DAMAGES AND PENALTIES

Late cycle: pipeline is king, and IHG is lagging. Downgrading IHG to UW, AC to N, retain WTB OW

supply growth puts pressure on RevPAR? Only if supply growth in turn

fuels stronger room openings. In our coverage, IHG (downgrade from

Neural to Underweight) appears most at risk, with its pipeline not

warranting much acceleration in room openings, and leaving it as

essentially a cycle play. In contrast, we see Whitbread (reiterate

Overweight) as now a de-risked “pure rollout” story with little reliance on

cyclical upside. Accor (downgrade from Overweight to Neutral) has a

more balanced profile, but consensus expectations appear high.

* IHG: UW, 17.9x CY17e P/E, PT 2,865p ie 2% potential downside.

IHG’s December 2015 pipeline does not support a marked acceleration

in room openings, in our view. Signings represent 30% of the existing

network, compared to 40% at a similar stage of the past cycle. We

believe management is addressing these concerns, but the short-term

consequence is an increase in development costs ($7m guided for

FY16e, ie a -40bp margin drag for the group). Market expectations seem

optimistic in this context (JPMe FY16e EBIT $687m, -2.5% below

Bloomberg consensus). Our 6.1% comparable 2016e-2018e EPS CAGR

is predicated on 2.7% RevPAR growth and 3.3% room openings.

* Whitbread: OW, 13.7x CY17e P/E, PT 4,400p ie 17% potential

upside. WTB looks set to deliver 10% EPS CAGR by 2018e, predicated

on only 1.7% RevPAR growth and 6.8% room openings. FY16 ended on

a supportive note with regard to the ongoing rollout, with over 4,000

room openings in Q4 alone and a higher mix of lower-risk room

extensions announced for FY17e. Market expectations are now largely

rebased on both the P&L and the cash flow side (JPMe FY17e PBT

£570m, -0.7% below consensus, and capex £705m, now only +3.5%

higher vs +29% higher in January).

* Accor: N, 17.2x CY17e P/E, PT €42 ie 8% potential upside. Accor boasts

a record strong pipeline, and benefits from more margin upside than peers

on the back of ongoing real estate restructuring. Our 12.5% comparable

2016e-2018e EPS CAGR is predicated on 2.8% RevPAR growth, 6.0%

room openings, and +220bp margin improvement. But following the

acquisition of OneFineStay, we now see the investments in digital opex as

unlikely to be phased out in the short term, which consensus expectations

do not yet reflect (JPMe FY16e EBIT €720m, -5.5% below consensus).

Not yet time for profit taking ahead of Q1; revisiting the upside

given the strong YTD performance; we, however, believe this could be too

early. Q1 should be a strong quarter, with French toll road traffic expected to

be c. 5% (JPMe), and order intake momentum likely to be supportive. We

continue to see meaningful upside to estimates and share prices. We reiterate

our OW recommendation for both stocks. Our revised April-17 PTs of €73

and €79 for Vinci and Eiffage suggest 11.1% and 15.6% upside.

 Q1 should be strong. We expect toll road traffic to be very strong in Q1,

continuing on the 3% underlying trend observed in Q4, and further boosted

by one extra day in the period from the leap year and the positive impact of

the Easter holidays falling in Q1 this year. Overall, we expect 5% traffic

growth for the sector in Q1. Although we believe it is still too early to see a

bounce in contracting revenues, we expect order intake momentum to

remain encouraging.

 See upside risks to estimates. We see upside risks on: 1/ traffic

expectations, given our (and we believe consensus) traffic growth

assumption remains conservatively 1.5% for 2016E; 2/ contracting revenue

which we expect to decline this year; 3/ margins assumptions which we

model flat at best in toll roads and only slightly improving from a low base

in contracting; and 4/ refinancing opportunities where we continue to see

material upside at Eiffage in particular. We revisit the upside potential in

this note for both stocks.

 Valuations remain attractive. We mark to market our PTs for the current

French yields, which boosts our April-17 PTs for Vinci to €73 (11.1%

upside) and Eiffage to €79 (15.6% upside). Despite the YTD strong

performance, the stocks are trading on a small premium to their 10-yr

historical average, whereas the share of profits coming from the concession

divisions has increased materially, justifying in itself a material premium, in

our view. FCF yields for Vinci and Eiffage are 6.6% and 6.9% in 2016e.

 See a further €18 per share on Eiffage by 2018 purely on deleveraging.

We forecast net debt to fall from €11.8bn in 2016E (including swaps) to

€9.9bn in 2018E (excluding swaps) at Eiffage. This in itself should boost

Eiffage’s equity value per share by €18 by 2018, and remains, in our view, a

material source of upside. We note that a placement from BPI (13% of

FGR’s capital) post the expiry of the lock up on April 22 would increase the

free float, which we think would be welcomed by the market.

Tourism spend is an important component of luxury revenue making up c35% of sales globally

according to Bain. Our monthly report on VAT refund provider Global Blue's data gives us a good

indication of travel spend trends. Overall Q1 has seen a marked slowdown notably from the Chinese

consumer in Europe (-18.9% y/y vs. +51% in 2015) likely due to the fallout from November's events in

Paris. With Hong Kong remaining weak, we estimate that the Chinese consumer outside of the Mainland

(c25% of sales) is down at least high single digit YTD. Early Q1 reporting has indicated that Chinese

spending worldwide has been "flattish"(LVMH) to "down" (Burberry) suggesting that Mainland China

(c10% of sales) and other key tourist destinations not captured by Global Blue have not fully

compensated for the above loss of tourist sales.

Last year the peak growth rates y/y of tourists took place between March and August. Currencies played

an important role in stretching luxury price differentials and making regions including Europe relatively

more attractive destinations. Ease of access was also improved by streamlined visa processes and more

direct flights. Fast forward twelve months and the RMB:EUR has depreciated c3% y/y. Security concerns

are top of mind following events in Paris and Brussels. Regional price differentials have been narrowed in

soft luxury and substantially reduced in much of hard luxury. Added to which the comparison base for

global tourism remains very tough in Q2 (+42.7% y/y), albeit below the March level (+47.4%). In our

view all the main indicators point to global tourism remaining under pressure in Q2. Such a scenario

would likely have a greater impact on Q2 trading than Q1 given the greater importance of tourism for

this quarter.

France saw -29.3% y/y in March (Q1 -21.1%) but all the other main European destinations also saw

declines in March, such as Italy -20.8%, as the comparison base began to toughen substantially. Japan

continues to outperform though even here the growth rate moderated (March +14.1%, Q1 +30.7%).

Chinese spend in March was -26.4% y/y against the major step up in tourist numbers m/m last year. The

US consumer remained strongest (+9.7% in March, +28.7% in Q1); the Middle East consumer was

stable despite the weaker oil price (-0.1%, +8.7% Q1).

* NN GROUP - Clean up. ING selling 45.7m shrs @ EUR 30.15; CS/ING/JPM/UBS....

* ELIS - Eurozeo's LH27 selling 17.1m shrs (will own 23.47% stake); DB.......

* GLOBAL DOMINION ACCESS - Primary of $170m; JPM/SG/Santander................

BILFINGER - Confirms in talks with Blades from Linde to become new CEO.......

MITTAL - Spec to be in talks on merger with ThyssenKrupp; Handelsblatt..+3-5%

FAURECIA - Solid. Org growth 4.6% v BAML 3.5%. FY guide looks conservative+2%

OVS - 4% net income beat vs BAML est, div of EUR 0.15 is encouraging......+2%

ELISA - Rev inline at €390M. EBITDA 2.5% ahead at €137M. Guidance reit..+1-2%

MAN GROUP - 3% beat. Strong AHL flows and a not so bad perf from GLG....+1-2%

EDF - Co preparing EUR 18bn of cost savings according to Le Figaro........+1%

STMICROELECTRONICS - Said to seek successor to CEO Carlo Bozotti..........+1%

CREDIT SUISSE - Partial RMBS settlement but bigger charges still to come..u/c

THYSSEN - Said to be talking with Tata Steel, Salzgitter and Mittal.......u/c

MEDA - Mylan convinced 90% of Meda shareholders will accept bid; DI.......u/c

CARREFOUR - Q1 sales slight beat. Soft in France, strong international....u/c

VOLKSWAGEN - 1Q EU market share drops to 23.4%, lowest level since 2011...-1%

EDENRED - 1Q16 sales 2% miss. FY16 guidance reit at lower end of 8-14% tgt-2%

Burberry M/P Luxury fashion retailer's shares look cheap, Lex article

Carrefour UNCH Sales beats estimates, China better

Comhem -2% Jon James Resigns as COO

Draegerwerk -4-5% 1Q order intake declined 2.5%, Net sales decline 2.4%

Edenred -2% Pressures remain in Q1 but FY guidance re-iterated

Elisa +3-4% 3% beat at EBITDA, guidance reads fine

Faurecia UNCH Numbers mixed, maintain cautious view

Gemalto -1-2% CS reiterate UNDERPERFORM (Risk to guidance)

H&M M/P March Sales Increased 2%

Man Group +1-2% AUM $78.6b (CSe $79b, cons $78.5b).

Miners -0.5% Copper -0.15%, Brent -0.85%, Iron Ore -0.95%, China -0.30%

Mittal +3% ThyssenKrupp/MT/SZG, merger spec, Handelsblatt

OVS +1-2% Sales known, gross margin ok, Outlook for 2016 upbeat

Saltzgitter +2-3% ThyssenKrupp/MT/SZG, merger spec, Handelsblatt

Thyssen +2% ThyssenKrupp/MT/SZG, merger spec, Handelsblatt

Zumtobel -7-8% Lowers forecasts, unsatisfactory March and weak April

*THYSSEN-Looking to merge with comp,spoken 2 Tata,Salzgitter,MT.....-1%

*CARREFOUR-Sales 20.1b(20),French Sales 9.335b(9.38),C/C 8.30.......U/C

*UNICREDIT-To place up to €1b or 20% of fund in Atlante - CEO.......+1%

*ZUMTOBEL-Sees Adj Ebit 55-60m vs prev 70-80m,Orders April weak.....-10%

*ELISA-Rev 390m(390.5),Ebitda 137m(133.5),EPS 39c(37c),o/l flat.....+2%

*STM-To seek successor to CEO Bozotti,we see this as a +ve..........+0.5%

*DRAGERWERK-Q1 Sales -2.4% 532.4m,Ebit -16m,Exp 5-10% EPS d/g FY....-6%

*FAURECIA-Q1 Rev €4.66b,FY Cash Flow 300m,Op Margin +20-60bp's......-2%

*EDENRED-Q1 Rev 249m,Issue Vol +7.4% LFL,FX -ve impact from Latam...+2%

*H&M-March Total Sales +2%,already known............................U/C

*VW-Q1 European market share drops to 23.4%,lowest since 2011.......+0.25%

*MAN GRP-Net inflows $0.5b,Sales $5.1b,Redemptions $4.6b............+2%

ACAL - sales +6%,margins continue to be strong,sees FY slight better then est+3%

MAN GROUP - FuM stable at $78.6bn,positive net inflows.......................+2%

POLYMETAL - gold production -4% yr-on-yr,net debt increased..................-1%

BEGBIES - number of manufacturers in distress +20% on prev yr...............UNCH

FAIRFX - revs +35.7%,profits +31.8%,pre-tax loss widens,sees FY inline......UNCH

VICTORIA - ceased discussions re potential acquisition of Lano Carpets......UNCH

Steven A. Cohen is starting a new hedge-fund firm months after a settlement with regulators put constraints on the veteran investor’s return to the business.

The billionaire is listed as the owner of Stamford Harbor Capital L.P., in documents filed earlier this month with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Stamford, Conn.-based firm can seek outside money as hedge funds do, according to the documents.

In Mr. Cohen’s January settlement with the SEC he agreed to a two-year restriction from serving as a supervisor at a registered fund. According to the April 1 documents filed with the SEC, he will “not act in a supervisory capacity” with Stamford Harbor.

He previously ran one of most country’s most profitable hedge fund firms, SAC Capital Advisors LP. He now is chief executive of Point72 Asset Management L.P., which manages the wealth of Mr. Cohen, his family and employees. Stamford Harbor Capital’s address is located across the street from Point72 Asset Management, according to the filing. Some executives working for the new firm also have dual roles with Point72.

James Cox, a Duke University law professor, said the development represented a “black eye” for the SEC, which agreed to a settlement that allowed Mr. Cohen to open a new fund as long as he wasn’t the supervisor of it.

“This is consistent with other times where the SEC has just blinked when stared down,” he said. “I’m completely dumbfounded.”

The SEC declined to comment. The SEC agreement with Mr. Cohen requires that an independent consultant review any entity Mr. Cohen “directly or indirectly wholly owns or controls” until the end of 2017.

Bloomberg News earlier reported Stamford Harbor Capital’s filing.

Mr. Cohen had been widely expected to return to the hedge-fund world after his prior firm, the eponymous SAC Capital Advisors, pleaded guilty to criminal insider-trading charges in 2013.

Despite years of investigations, prosecutors never charged Mr. Cohen himself with criminal charges. The government’s last effort, an SEC civil case for failure to supervise employees, weakened considerably after a 2014 appeals court ruling eventually forced the agency to cut half of its case.

A spokesman for Mr. Cohen said in a statement that Stamford Harbor may or may not seek outside capital. The firm has no assets under management at present.

But Mr. Cohen has been building in recent years an operation that could quickly transition to managing outside money, people close to the firm said.

Point72 has been interviewing job candidates in areas like business development that would face the outside world. It is also been rebuilding its London and Hong Kong offices, which were gutted amid the government investigations, said the people familiar with the situation.

Still, Mr. Cohen has told associates and potential investors that he is careful to avoid outright fundraising, lest he trip the agreement of his settlement, two of the people familiar with the situation said. Point72 isn’t allowed to raise outside money because of the SEC’s agreement with Mr. Cohen.