Square: Color on Quarter
--> SQ down 17% premarket just below support at the $11 level.
- Wedbush downgrades to Underperform; tgt to $9 from $11. They believe that Square is rapidly growing a business that may never reach peer (or guided) profitability, which will become apparent as growth slows over the next couple of years on competition and saturation. They believe upcoming lockup expiration (5-17) will provide the catalyst. They expect Square's growth to decelerate over the next couple of years as it gets boxed in by intensified competition from PYPL Here, INTU, SaaS competitors and traditional acquirers. SQ is selling at Wal-Mart prices with Neiman Marcus cost structure. Unlikely SQ gets acquired.
- Mizuho notes the co executed almost flawlessly on the core business, with strength in transaction revenue, solid take rates, and strong hardware sales. But the Software & Data segment came slightly below their expectations due to supply constraints with Square Capital. As the firm adds more lenders, this should help fulfill the solid demand. Their core thesis remains intact - Square should drive out-sized growth and margins through software over time, and they believe that the firmcould be a take out candidate given its unique focus around SMBs.
- Compass Point's thesis is simple: SQ's growth story is unusual for publicly traded FinTech and genuinely compelling—and the brand, platform, and secular exposure are positives. Despite those positives, the large move up since mid-February leaves little room for error and keeps them sidelined on the shares. Admittedly, their view is colored by their recent sector experiences, as most high-growth FinTech names could not sustain high multiples for an extended period after going public—even if their absolute and relative growth held up well. With the shares now trading at 166.0x 2017 P/E and 207.3x EV/EBITDA, the large delta between GAAP and non-GAAP results, and likely near-term secondary offerings, they believe a better entry point will emerge.
- RBC believes the quarter (a) was above expectations on a revenue basis and generally in line for EBITDA; (b) supported their thesis that Square's integrated solutions position the co to benefit from ongoing card acceptance penetration at smaller merchants as well increasing its attractiveness to larger merchants; but (c) may not have met heightened investor expectations going into the quarter; $15 tgt.
Early premarket gappers
Gapping up: CRME +31.7%, SPHS +21.1%, SYN +16.5%, CTRL +14.9%, RATE+13.6%, RATE +13.6%, SPPI +13.3%, HLF +13.2%, YELP +11.3%, ATHX +10.4%,MDR +8.6%, POST +8.6%, ACAD +8.4%, GSAT +8.2%, UBNT +8.1%, PTCT +6.8%,TRQ +6.7%, ATVI +6.5%, CLNE +6.5%, SWIR +5.6%, MTZ +5.4%, ATW +5.3%,INAP +5%, NBIX +4.5%, BLDR +4.1%, AL +3.8%, ANET +3.8%, TEAM +3.7%,MELI +3.4%, DV +3.2%, BATS +3.2%, GOLD +2.7%, VRNG +2.5%, UEIC +1.9%,CLVS +1.9%, WING +1.9%, WEB +1.8%, WYNN +1.7%, MDVN +1.7%, GFI +1.6%,ABX +1.6%, EGY +1.6%, EVDY +1.5%, VALE +1.3%, SAAS +1.1%, MAIN +1.1%,AHT +1%, EGN +0.9%, GDX +0.7%, ZAYO +0.6%, GNL +0.5%
Gapping down: KMPH -43.5%, ENDP -28.5%, GST -26.3%, SQ -19.5%, IMPV-18.8%, BSQR -14.1%, UNXL -11.6%, FEYE -9.3%, PLG -8.8%, GPRO -8.5%, ARP-7.6%, DATA -6.8%, BANC -6.1%, FLR -5.6%, SDRL -5.2%, VNET -4.9%, JCP-4.8%, CRC -4.8%, GDEN -4.2%, CERN -4.1%, OLED -3.9%, SO -3.8%, VRX-3.5%, CYBR -3.3%, LOCO -3.3%, TRUE -3.2%, EFC -3.2%, SSL -2.4%, CHK-2.3%, PMT -2.3%, MT -2.3%, WBA -2.2%, CI -2.2%, AMCN -2.1%, STO -1.9%,HRTX -1.9%, FPRX -1.9%, PETX -1.8%, CTSH -1.8%, YY -1.7%, CS -1.6%, HSBC-1.5%, QIHU -1.5%, ANH -1.5%, ICPT -1.5%, EGAN -1.4%, BP -1.3%, DEPO-1.3%, SPWR -1.3%, YNDX -1.2%, MDRX -1.2%, RDS.A -1.1%, LNG -1.1%, GERN-1.1%, PBR -1%, CPA -0.9%, MRO -0.8%
Gapping down: KMPH -43.5%, ENDP -28.5%, GST -26.3%, SQ -19.5%, IMPV-18.8%, BSQR -14.1%, UNXL -11.6%, FEYE -9.3%, PLG -8.8%, GPRO -8.5%, ARP-7.6%, DATA -6.8%, BANC -6.1%, FLR -5.6%, SDRL -5.2%, VNET -4.9%, JCP-4.8%, CRC -4.8%, GDEN -4.2%, CERN -4.1%, OLED -3.9%, SO -3.8%, VRX-3.5%, CYBR -3.3%, LOCO -3.3%, TRUE -3.2%, EFC -3.2%, SSL -2.4%, CHK-2.3%, PMT -2.3%, MT -2.3%, WBA -2.2%, CI -2.2%, AMCN -2.1%, STO -1.9%,HRTX -1.9%, FPRX -1.9%, PETX -1.8%, CTSH -1.8%, YY -1.7%, CS -1.6%, HSBC-1.5%, QIHU -1.5%, ANH -1.5%, ICPT -1.5%, EGAN -1.4%, BP -1.3%, DEPO-1.3%, SPWR -1.3%, YNDX -1.2%, MDRX -1.2%, RDS.A -1.1%, LNG -1.1%, GERN-1.1%, PBR -1%, CPA -0.9%, MRO -0.8%
IMF reportedly told EU ministers to begin Greek debt talks - financial press Recent comments on Greece and IMF
- On Apr 26th reports circulated that ECB reportedly might grant Greece access to cheap funding after conclusion of bailout review. Funding from ECB could ultimately lead to Greek inclusion in the ECB's QE program; however, actual purchases would be dependent on analysis of Greece debt sustainability
- On Apr 22nd Greece Fin Min Tsakalotos comments on IMF that still had to see if pressure for debt restructuring was balanced
- On Apr 22nd German Fin Min Schaeuble: Greece doesn't need debt relief now and won't require an easing of its debt burden as long as the troika of creditors determines that debt sustainability was ensured
- On Apr 22nd Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem stated that was close to an agreement in several key areas on Greece; some issues needed more work. No agreement until an agreement on everything; want full commitment from IMF
- On Apr 22nd EU's Dombrovskis stated that Eurogroup had made good progress with Greece and looking at contingency steps to get IMF backing
- On Apr 5th Greece Econ Min Stathakis: Country's debt was sustainable until 2022 but needed discussions in period after that
Risk-off into Payrolls
>>> Asset Class Flows
- Equities: $16.9bn outflows (largest outflows in 8 months) ($13bn mutual fund outflows and $4bn ETF outflows)
- Bonds: $5.6bn inflows (inflows in 9 of past 10 weeks)
- Precious metals: $1.7bn inflows (largest in 9 weeks) (inflows in 16 of past 17 weeks) (Chart 3)
- Money-markets: $4.3bn outflows ($122bn outflows past 10 weeks)
>>> Equity Flows
- Europe: $2.8bn outflows (13 straight weeks = longest streak since Feb’08)
- US: $13.7bn outflows (largest outflows since Sep’15)
- Japan: $0.8bn outflows (8 straight weeks) (longest streak since Feb’12)
- EM: small $0.5bn outflows
- By sector, 11 straight weeks of REITs inflows ($1.1bn); largest tech outflows in 12 weeks ($0.9bn); another week of chunky outflows from consumer funds ($0.6bn)
>>> Fixed Income Flows
$5.0bn inflows to IG bond funds (largest in 13 months) (9 straight weeks)
$2.0bn outflows from HY bond funds (largest in 12 weeks)
$1.0bn inflows to Munis (33 straight weeks)
$0.6bn inflows to TIPS (12 straight weeks)
$1.2bn inflows to EM debt funds (11 straight weeks)
$0.9bn outflows from Govt/Tsy funds (11 straight weeks)
Brevan Howard moves into mass market
Hedge fund firm Brevan Howard, which is in the midst of its third down year, is branching out to target retail investors in a bid for new investment offerings.
The Geneva-based company’s move is the latest sign that the struggling $2.86tn industry, which was founded to cater to the financial elite, is being forced to move mass market.
Brevan is raising money for two new funds that will allow instant daily redemptions and does not charge performance fees. They are discretionary total return multi-asset funds, investing in long-only equities and fixed-income securities. They will use the firm’s senior macro and risk managers to oversee the portfolio.
Institutional investors have become more focused on easy liquidity following the 2008 financial crisis when some hedge funds put up gates, barring some investors from redeeming.
Brevan, run by Alan Howard, is joining a large group of other asset managers in offering this type of retail fund, known as a Ucit because of the EU rules under which it operates.
Ucits have become increasing popular in recent years as retail investors sought to tap into otherwise unobtainable hedge fund strategies, even as regulators have warned that they may carry more risks for unsophisticated investors.
Brevan’s shift towards so-called liquid alts comes as redemption has soared and the company’s assets under management have fallen to about $20bn, from a high of nearly $40bn.
The firm launched the new funds “because it is how the main partners want to invest their personal non-hedge fund liquid wealth”, a person familiar with the firm said. “It was built for them. BH believes it offers value to investors and it is not capacity constrained so why not make it a business as well as a personal investment vehicle?”
Brevan’s main macro fund, managed by Mr Howard, charges a typical 2 per cent management fee and 20 per cent performance fee. It was down close to 1 per cent in the first quarter after losses in March negated gains for the year. That followed down years in 2015 and 2014. The last time the fund performed positively was in 2013, when it returned 2.7 per cent.
Other macro funds have also struggled. Hedge Fund Research’s macro index has risen 1.5 per cent so far this year, but has fallen nearly 3 per cent in the past 12 months.
The new funds — the Brevan Howard Liquid Portfolio Strategies — which each launched in December at a price of €100 are mostly flat. The Dynamic US Investment Fund is trading at about €102.7, while the Dynamic Global Investment Fund is at €99.38.
IMF reportedly told EU ministers to begin Greek debt talks - financial press
Ponzi will not reveal business secret
The dollar’s recent rapid slide has been accompanied by a constant backdrop of dovish cooing from the Fed. Until this week, both equity and commodity markets had embraced the weak dollar as the elixir to solve all their ills. That relief has now proved fleeting as fear of weak economic activity has reasserted its influence on investors. The weak dollar should be seen as merely a shuffling of deckchairs on the Titanic before the global economy sinks below the icy waves.
My erstwhile colleague Larry McDonald, now writing at Bear Traps Report, has spotted a disturbing pattern. At its last meeting the Fed removed its reference to concern that global risks posed a risk to the outlook. He notes that weve seen this before.
- Jul 2015 - Not concerned
- Sep 2015 - Concerned
- Dec 2015 - Not concerned
- Mar 2016 - Concerned
- Apr 2016 - Not concerned
In a recent interview with CNBCs Rick Santelli, Richard Fisher, former President of the Dallas Fed, explained “The Fed has the market on Ritalin—trying to keep the mood very smooth, keep volatility down as much as possible. As soon as they hint that they might remove that, then they create the problems they're afraid of. So, they've boxed themselves into a corner, and the real art will be to see how they manoeuvre to get out of that”….“When [the Fed] move—and I hope they move sometime in June—there'll be a settling in of the marketplace. There will be a correction. Suck it up. Deal with it. That's reality.”
The sad thing is that, as Fisher says, the Fed has boxed itself into a corner, for surely it is clear to all in the markets by now that its not global risks that worry the Fed but the impact on the S&P. But all the Feds loosey goosey will prove irrelevant as the cycle ends. Get ready to suck it up as the inevitable recession demonstrates the Feds total impotence.
La chaîne indique qu'elle n'avait pas eu connaissance de son passé lorsqu'elle l'a recruté.
Toujours selon nos informations exclusives, la direction de BFMTV annoncera sa décision dans un communiqué de presse dans la matinée.
Le dossier est révélé par nos confrères de l'Obs et est pour le moins surprenant.
Le nouveau spécialistes des affaires terroristes de BFM TV et en particulier du Djhadisme, Romain Caillet, serait un individu "fiché S" par les services de sécurité Français.
Au milieu des années 2000, Romain Caillet, qui intervenait sur les forums islamistes sous le pseudonyme de "Colonel Salafi", ne cachait pas ses positions en faveur du djihad.
Vivant en Egypte, il suivait notamment les cours de l'institut Qortoba, fermé en 2005 à la demande des services de renseignements occidentaux qui y voyaient une officine de recrutement djihadiste.
Il y fréquentait notamment les frères Clain, dont l'aîné, Fabien, réputé être aujourd'hui un cadre important de Daech, a revendiqué les attentats de novembre dernier pour le compte de l'organisation terroriste.
Aujourd'hui, il se dit repenti et n'a jamais été condamné par la justice.
Il a affirmé regretter son passif propagandiste :
"J'espère ne pas avoir été la cause d'enrôlement de jeunes au djihad.
J'ai essayé de réparer mes erreurs en postant sur Internet des repentirs publics.
Quand j'étais djihadiste, je dormais mal la nuit en pensant aux attentats."
Devenu incontournable dans les médias ou sur les réseaux sociaux avec plus de 33 500 abonnés sur Twitter depuis les terribles événements du 13 novembre à Paris, Romain Caillet est prisé pour son expertise sur les questions relatives à l'islam radical.
Peu après 10h, dans un communiqué, BFMTV a confirmé notre information exclusive sur l'éviction de son consultant sur le djihad
Voici le communiqué de la chaîne
M&A will be fundamental to the Steinhoff investment case, by adding retailers to its vertically integrated model, value is created through margin expansion and gains in market share, Exane says in note.
- Steinhoff remains a top pick in the sector, outperform reiterated, PT raised to EU6.80 with further 50% “blue sky upside”
- Says despite pulling out of Argos and Darty deals, acquisition targets remain plentiful, their pursuit of retail consolidation is not over
- Co. has balance sheet, cash generation to support an M&A growth agenda over a number of years
- Steinhoff has EU9b of incremental cash for M&A over the next 5 years
- Has >EU3b available now, set to generate a further EU1.4b of cash in each of next five years
- Deploying this capital could result in up to 7% of incremental shareholder value per year
- Credit Suisse initiates Steinhoff with outperform rating, PT EU6; says company’s unpredictable M&A activity over the last 15 years has produced low returns when measured in rand
- Sees significant valuation upside from future M&A if historical returns are preserved