TheChek News Flow

>>> SAFT - To be acquired by Total for €36.50/shr

To be acquired by Total for €36.50/shr

- Total value for Saft at €950M

- The supervisory board of Saft has unanimously approved the friendly takeover by total and considers the proposed transaction to be in line with the interests of the company

(BN) *TOTAL SIGNS AGREEMENT TO BUY SAFT FOR EU36.50/SHARE

JDD - Et si Orange rachetait Free?

Et si Orange rachetait Free?

La consolidation "restera une nécessité", a déclaré Ramon Fernandez, le directeur général délégué d'Orange sur BFM Business. "Il y a toujours des bouts de discussion", confirment plusieurs dirigeants des opérateurs mobiles français. Tout le monde se parle et ces semaines-ci, le dernier scénario jamais exploré, un rachat de Free par Orange, circule dans l'esprit des opérateurs. D'autant que fait rare dans ce secteur, leurs deux patrons, Stéphane Richard et Xavier Niel, s'entendent très bien. Cela permettrait à celui de Free de prendre position chez Orange, comme ce que visait Martin Bouygues. De plus, le fondateur de Free détient une participation de 15% dans Telecom Italia, voué à s'unir à terme à Orange. Il pourrait ainsi être le pivot d'une double consolidation, d'abord en France puis en Europe.

JDD - L'offre secrète d'Orange à Bouygues

L'offre secrète d'Orange à Bouygues

Il y a un mois, l’opérateur, avec SFR et Free, a rouvert les négociations avec Bouygues pour aboutir à un accord. Sans succès.

C'était un 1er avril que personne n'oubliera dans le secteur des télécoms. Un vendredi qui devait déboucher sur un accord historique entre Orange, SFR, Bouygues et Free pour ramener le marché de quatre à trois opérateurs. Mais l'échec de trois mois de négociations n'était pas un poisson d'avril. Durant le week-end qui a suivi, les dirigeants d'Orange, de Free et d'Altice, l'actionnaire de SFR, continuent d'échanger et de manifester leurs regrets. "On était passé si près de signer l'opération que c'était trop bête d'en rester là", relate l'un d'entre eux. Selon plusieurs sources, le 4 avril, les trois opérateurs reprennent leurs discussions pour tenter de lever les derniers obstacles et convaincre Bouygues de vendre sa filiale télécoms à Orange.

Chacun fait des efforts

"C'étaient des points de détail à l'échelle de l'opération, note un des participants aux pourparlers. Mais cela avait contribué à la faire échouer quelques jours plus tôt." Rapidement, chacun fait un effort pour parvenir à un accord. Orange accepte de prendre à sa charge une plus grosse part de la pénalité prévue en cas de rupture de l'opération. De son côté, SFR assume davantage les garanties de passif. Quant à Free, dont les exigences avaient irrité Martin Bouygues, il lève les conditions suspensives autour des transferts des antennes-relais. En face, l'État, actionnaire d'Orange à 23%, envoie lui aussi des messages d'ouverture et accepte d'assouplir ses demandes à l'égard de Bouygues. Notamment la clause lui interdisant d'augmenter sa participation chez Orange et de profiter de droits de vote double. "L'État était prêt à ramener le gel de la participation de Bouygues à deux ans et demi", explique une source. "Nous étions aussi disposés à limiter les droits de vote uniquement pour les grandes décisions stratégiques, comme nous l'avons fait chez Renault", ajoute un proche de Bercy.

"A genoux devant Bouygues"

En deux jours, la voie semble dégagée. Les avancées sont présentées au groupe Bouygues sans, toutefois, que l'offre soit formalisée. Martin Bouygues ne leur en a pas laissé le temps. En milieu de semaine, le propriétaire de Bouygues Telecom éconduit de nouveau ses rivaux sans qu'ils se l'expliquent. "Il n'y avait plus d'obstacles, assure un des négociateurs. J'ai vraiment cru que l'opération aboutirait." "Free s'arc-boutait sur la prolongation de la location du réseau d'Orange", oppose un proche de Bouygues. "Faux, répond un négociateur, Free avait levé tous les obstacles." "La confiance a été rompue avec Xavier Niel", conclut un lieutenant de Martin Bouygues pour justifier l'irrationalité de la décision. "Martin Bouygues aurait pu nous demander n'importe quoi, s'agace un cadre d'un des opérateurs. On était à genoux devant lui."

Cette énième tentative a, en tout cas, permis de voir que tous les acteurs poussaient dans le même sens. "On a fait le maximum, tranche un proche d'Orange. On se demande si Bouygues ne nous a pas baladés depuis le début." S'est-il braqué ou bien avait-il un agenda caché? Certains se demandent s'il ne cherche pas, au fond, à forcer le gouvernement qui sortira des urnes à lui vendre la part de l'État dans Orange.

>>> What to look at today - 9th of May 2016

Asian equity markets are mixed though there's little doubt about the worst performer, as Shanghai Composite tumbled over 2%. China trade data are seen as the culprit - even though the terms of trade hit 3-month highs in CNY and USD terms, declines in Imports and Exports paint a dim view of the economy. A spike in oil prices on the news of shake-up in the Energy regime in Saudi Arabia also helped matters. S&P futures are little changed, WTI crude was up over 2.5% as high as $45.90, and commodity majors were tracking firmer. In Japan, both Fin Min Aso and BOJ Dep Gov Iwata shrugged off latest US Treasury report that flagged 5 counties - China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Germany - for its monitoring list. Aso said he does not think US Treasury believes that Japan's FX policy is inappropriate, adding that negative rate policy is not hurting the public. Aso also stated that USD/JPY at ¥107 will not prompt govt to take action.

Nikkei+0.70% Hang Seng+0.40% Shanghai -2.48%

Eur$1.1398 CNH 6.5176 CNY 6.5040 JPY 107.59 GBP 1.4421 CHF 0.9716 RUB$ 65.5054 WTI$ $45.43)+1.72%)

S&P+0.11% EuroStoxx +0.83% Dax+0.84% SMI +0.86%

Macro :

- China’s April Exports Rise 4.1% Y/y in Yuan Terms

- BOE Prepares for Rate Cut in Event of Brexit: Sunday Times

- China trade may sway Fed's rate decision - Reuters - http://reut.rs/24ERNBF

- Juncker Says Brexit to Have ’Unforeseeable Effects’: Funke

- Draghi, Schäuble and the high cost of Germany’s savings culture - FT - http://on.ft.com/1T64Hqt

- Soros Chart Signals BOJ Bond Buying Already Enough to Weaken Yen

Keep an eye on :

- ABI BB : Anheuser-Busch Inbev Debt Rating Cut Two Notches by Fitch

- ACMI IM : AC Milan owners to decide on whether to concede exclusive takeover talks to Chinese consortium at beginning of next week - Il Sole 24 Ore

- ALPH SW : Alpiq draws high interest for hydro-assets, firm bids due in next round - Sonntagszeitung

- AMZN US : CEO Bezos sells 1% of holding for $671M; Marks his largest company stock sale ever

- ASC LN : U.K. April Online Spending Rises, High Street Flat: Visa Europe

- BARC LN : Barclays to Provide U.K. Cos. With Mobile-Payments Platform: FT

- BMW GY : BMW to Offer Engineers Retraining as Software Experts: Spiegel

- BNP FP : BNP Paribas CIB IT Unit to Be Most Hit by Job Cuts: Echos

- BNR GY : Brenntag 1Q Sales, Operating Ebitda Miss Ests.; Confirms Outlook

- BB/ LN : Blackstone, Cerberus Study Bradford & Bingley Loans: Times

- CO FP : Casino to Sell More Assets in Coming Months, CEO Tells Figaro

- EDF FP : China National Nuclear May Take Hinkley Point Stake: Telegraph

- EMC US : Dell said to plan to market debt next week to raise funds for previously announced EMC deal

- ENEL IM : Enel makes informal offer for Metroweb - Il Corriere della Sera

- EOAN GY : Abandoning Coal May Cost Germany EU71.6b: Handelsblatt

- FRS SM : Fersa attracts final offers from Springwater, Audax and Oaktree; low bids may trigger hostile move - Expansion

- GALN VX : Galenica Says Vifor Fresenius Buys Marketing Rights for Rayaldee

- GALP PL : Galp Said to Seek Bids for Stake in Gas Distribution Ops: Rtrs

- G1A GY : GEA 1Q Sales Fall 6.5%, Ebit Down 12.6%; Confirms 2016 Outlook

- GILD US : Gilead Discloses U.S. Attorney’s Office Subpoena on 501(c)(3)s

- GLEN LN : Glencore in discussions with bidders including SALIC, Qatar, Canadian pension fund about sale of further 9.9% stake in agricultural arm - Reuters - http://bit.ly/1rB2TcS

- ILD FP : Telefonica considering options for O2 in light of expected EC block on sale to Hutchison; Iliad considering bid, Iliad Considering Bid for Telefonica’s O2: Sunday Times

- MC FP : Jeweler De Grisogono Buys Rights to Sell 404-Carat Rough Diamond

- LSE LN : LSE and Deutsche Boerse executives unlikely to be questioned by UK MPs about merger - Daily Mail

- NG/ LN : Chinese sovereign wealth fund joining Macquarie, Allianz and Dalmore Capital to bid on majority stake in National Grid’s £12bn gas business. (Sunday Times)

- NRF US : Colony Capital, NorthStar Asset, NorthStar Realty Confirm Talks -->+5.8% in After Hours

- OCADO LN : U.K. April Online Spending Rises, High Street Flat: Visa Europe

- PNL NA : PostNL 1Q Cash Underlying Operating Income Falls 10% to EU61m

- QIHU US : Qihoo 360 Says Speculation on Its Privatization Untrue

- RCS IM : Cairo Communication asked by Italian securities regulator for additional information on public offer

- RMG LN : Royal Mail Said to Line Up Rico Back for CEO Role: Times

- SFQ GY : SAF-Holland 1Q Earnings Drop; Company Sticks to 2016 Outlook

- STL NO : Statoil Declares Force Majeure Amid Oil Sands Wildfire

- TEF SM : Telefonica considering options for O2 in light of expected EC block on sale to Hutchison; Iliad considering bid

- TIT IM : Telecom Italia considers all-cash offer for Metroweb - Il Sole 24 Ore, Il Corriere della Sera

- TEL NO : Telenor Proposes Jacob Aqraou, Siri Beate Hatlen Join Board

- TESB BB : Tessenderlo Chemie CEO Tack Buys Additional EU1.75m of Stock

- VOLVB SS : Volvo Board Member Haakan Samuelsson Has Bought 106,000 B Shares

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 9th of May 2016

>>> Up

*AKER SOLUTIONS RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI

*EASYJET RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL

*HOIST FINANCE RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY

*IPSEN RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY

*ROTORK RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT EXANE

*SMITH & NEPHEW RAISED TO BUY AT JEFFERIES

*TULLOW OIL RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS MARKET PERFORM AT BMO

*WEIR GROUP RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE

>>> Down

*CENTAMIN EGYPT CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT CITI

*INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT ODDO

*RESTAURANT GROUP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS

*STATOIL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS

*TOTAL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS

*VALE CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT SOCIETE GENERALE

>>> PT Change

>>> Initiation

*VALLOUREC RESUMED AT UNDERPERFORM VS RESTRICTED AT EXANE

>>> Call

>> Sector

*EUROPE HEALTHCARE RAISED FROM UNDERWEIGHT TO OVERWEIGHT AT BERNSTEIN

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: Soft China trade components weigh on mainland markets

***Economic Data***

- (CN) CHINA APR TRADE BALANCE (CNY TERMS): 298B V 255.0BE; 3-month high

- (CN) CHINA APR FOREIGN (FX) RESERVES: $3.22T V $3.20TE; 2nd straight increase

- (AU) AUSTRALIA APR ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS M/M: -0.8% V +0.1% PRIOR

***Index Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT)***

- Nikkei225 +0.5%, S&P/ASX -0.3%, Kospi -0.6%, Shanghai Composite -2.2%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Jun S&P500 +0.1% at 2,054

***Commodities/Fixed Income***

- June gold -0.6% at $1,286/oz, June crude oil +1.7% at $45.36/brl, Jul copper -1.4% at $2.12/lb

- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 4.8 tonnes to 834.9 tonnes; highest since Dec 2013

- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥350B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥440B in 3-5yr JGBs, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGBs and ¥160B in JGBs with maturity over 25-yr

- (CN) PBOC to inject CNY20B in 7-day reverse repos

- (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.5105 V 6.5202 PRIOR; first firmer setting in 4 days

***Market Focal Points/FX***

- Asian equity markets are mixed though there's little doubt about the worst performer, as Shanghai Composite tumbled over 2%. China trade data are seen as the culprit - even though the terms of trade hit 3-month highs in CNY and USD terms, declines in Imports and Exports paint a dim view of the economy. Improved China FX reserves softened the blow somewhat, keeping sentiment more neutral in other assets. A spike in oil prices on the news of shake-up in the Energy regime in Saudi Arabia also helped matters. S&P futures are little changed, WTI crude was up over 2.5% as high as $45.90, and commodity majors were tracking firmer - AUD/USD rose over 30pips from opening lows in 0.7350, NZD/USD traded up some 30pips toward $0.6850, and USD/JPY was in a 50pip range above 107.

- China trade balance in USD and CNY hit 3-month highs, but closely watched Imports component fell for the 18th straight month, suggesting falling domestic demand for materials - imports came in at -5.7% v +0.3%e and exports also below forecasts at +4.1% v +4.3%e. Shipments to US and Japan were especially soft: -9.3% y/y v +9.0% prior and -11.8% v 9.3% prior respectively, even as EU exports increased 3.2%. CICC said the trade figures showed that exports data weakened significantly, imports drop reflected weak domestic demand, and the weakness may extend in the near future. Separately, China state researcher estimated Q2 GDP to remain at 7-year lows of 6.7%, while a People's Daily feature called for govt to maintain prudent monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy.

- In Japan, both Fin Min Aso and BOJ Dep Gov Iwata shrugged off latest US Treasury report that flagged 5 counties - China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Germany - for its monitoring list. Aso said he does not think US Treasury believes that Japan's FX policy is inappropriate, adding that negative rate policy is not hurting the public. Aso also stated that USD/JPY at ¥107 will not prompt govt to take action. Iwata also state that the US report won't constrain BOJ monetary policy, with negative rates policy designed to achieve 2% inflation target.

- After last week's surprise RBA rate cut and subsequent slashing of inflation projections in the central bank currency report, Westpac and JPMorgan research notes were confident that there will be more easing down the pike. Australia job advertisements softened, and ANZ economist said the level of jobs ads has been flat for 6 months now after a period of substantial growth. Australia banking was also in focus today, with a report by AFR uncovering hundreds of mortgage loans with fraudulent Chinese income documents, even though the estimated total of the loans was less than A$1B, or 0.12% of their combined $837B of residential mortgages. Report does warn that these mortgage deceptions may not be isolated to those banks, and smaller institutions could also be at risk. CBA also reported Q3 results that saw higher loan impairment provisions and flat net interest margins, while CET1 metric fell 20bps to 10%.

***Equities***

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer discretionary: Skyworth Digital 751.HK -2.8% (Apr result, FY16/17 target); MGM China 2282.HK +0.4% (Q1 result); Fairfax Media FXJ.AU +3.% (spinoff speculation)

- Financials: Haitong Securities 6837.HK -1.6% (Apr result); CITIC Securities 6030.HK -1.9% (Apr result); Commonwealth Bank of Australia CBA.AU +0.5% (Q3 result)

- Industrials: Fuji Heavy Industries 7270.JP +0.8% (result speculation); Orica ORI.AU -11.7% (H1 result)

- Materials: Beadell Resources BDR.AU +3.1% (guidance)

WSJ : The Price Is Right for Sotheby’s

The Price Is Right for Sotheby’s

Hopes are rising that Sotheby’s recent rebound has more room to run

Spare a thought for the 0.1%.

The world’s ultrarich, many of whom hail from countries facing slowdowns or earned their fortunes from industries that are now slumping, have been a cautious bunch lately. The merely well-off seem less anxious and that shows in their favorite places to shop.

In 2014 and 2015, high-end auction house Sotheby’s lagged behind the S&P 500 by an awful 62 percentage points. Jeweler Tiffany & Co., which caters to a mass-affluent clientele, lagged behind the market by a mere 27 percentage points.

This year has been different so far. Sotheby’s is beating the market and trouncing Tiffany. With a new chief at the helm and amid many executive departures at Sotheby’s, hopes are rising for a turnaround. And earlier this year, it agreed to buy a blue-chip art advisory firm as a way to diversify its offerings beyond art auctions.

As New York’s auction houses kick off spring sales this week, Sotheby’s is poised Monday to report first-quarter earnings. There still won’t be much to write home about. Analysts polled by FactSet forecast Sotheby’s swung to a loss of 23 cents a share. Revenue is estimated to have dropped 20% to $125 million.

Sotheby’s, like other auctioneers, has been hampered by low oil prices, a strong dollar and concerns about China. Slumping financial markets have a tendency to crimp speculative investing, hurting the likes of art and luxury items.

China, in particular, has been a sore spot. China exposure for Sotheby’s, measured as a percentage of overall sales, has been falling in recent years. As of 2015, it was 15%, down from 19% in 2011. For Tiffany, sales in Asia-Pacific made up about one-fourth of overall sales last year, with China making up more than half of that.

Since Sotheby’s shares bottomed in February below $20, the lowest since 2009, they have jumped more than 40%. At 15 times projected earnings over the next 12 months, the stock still fetches a 10% discount to its average multiple of the past three years.

Sotheby’s is getting its house in order. Trading at half its 2014 high, investors can still get a bargain with a bid of their own.

>>> What to look at this Week End - 7th & 8th of May 2016

Weekly Update

Dow-0.19% S&P-0.40% Nasdaq-0.82% Russell-1.43% Nikkei-7.64% Hang Seng -5.89% Shanghai -1.10% EuroStoxx-3.02% FTSE -3.11% CAC-2.88% Dax-1.68% Ibex-3.59% MIB -4.07% SMI -4.49%

Over recent weeks there has been a recurring debate in markets about the prospects for the stalled global economic recovery. Many analysts saw the first quarter as a seasonal aberration and predicted the widespread economic softness would soon to be replaced by green shoots as oil prices rose, China stabilized and the US economy improved. The more pessimistic analysis said the problems seen in the first quarter were indicative of deeper problems, and developments this week seemed to favor the latter camp. The April US jobs report was soft, and the decline in the April US ISM factory data suggested manufacturing was not healing quite as quickly as expected. Other global data was similarly weak. The softer dollar trend appears to have plateaued, with EUR/USD unable to sustain gains above 1.1500 while the USD/JPY appears to holding above 105. A resurgent Dollar weighed on commodity prices in general before production hotspots pushed up oil prices late in the week. Treasury yields drifted lower aided by flows out of the equity markets pushing rates to levels not seen since mid-April. For the week the DJIA lost 0.2%, the S&P lost 0.4% and the NASDAQ fell 0.8%.