- CRCM +18.1% (1k); Google Capital Invests $46.35m
- SGY +7.9% (33k); Ends Ensco Pact, Signs Midstream Contract
- CIT +6% (13k); Laurentian to Buy CIT Canada Financing Unit
- SSTK +3.8% (141k); Named to S&P 600
- TWLO +3.3% (290k); Closed at Highest Since Last Week’s IPO
- MGT +3.2% (240k); Adds to 23% Regular-Session Gain
- CLVS +2.3% (26k); Rose 22% in Regular Session
- C +2.2% (821k); Plans $8.6b Buyback, Div. Boost to 16c
- ALLY +1.9% (35k); Inaugural Div., $700m Buyback Planned
- BAC +1.7% (3.6m); $5b Buyback; Boosts Div to 7.5c
- JPM +1.5% (760k); $10.6b Buyback, Maintains Div. at 48c
- GS +1.4% (94k); Plans Buyback, Div. Boost
- LNT +1.2% (12k); Set to Join S&P 500
- CPHD +1.2% (20k); Infection-Control Aid Cleared by FDA
- MS +1.1% (290k); Up to $3.5b Buyback; Boosts Div. to 20c
- HBAN +1.1% (110k); Will Lift Div. to 8c
- BK +1.1% (109k); Plans $2.7b Buyback, Boosts Dividend
- DB +1.1% (132k); Says U.S. Capital Adequacy Not in Doubt
- SWX +1% (6k); Moving Up to S&P MidCap 400
- RF +1% (259k); May Buy Back Up to $640m, Boost Div.
- PRGS +5.2% (11k)
- ICPT -5.3% (39k); $400m Convertible Offering
- SAN -3.1% (55k); U.S. Unit Fails Stress Test for 3rd Year
- TSCO -7.5% (263k)
- PIR -6.8% (254k)
Closing Market Summary: Indices Continue Post-Brexit ReboundThe stock market ended the Wednesday affair on a broadly higher note, extending its recent rebound alongside European bourses. Equity markets continued their uptrend as investors maintained their risk-on posture, bidding oversold currencies, commodities, and the heavily-weighted financial (+2.3%), health care (+1.9%), and industrial (+1.7%) sectors. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.9%) finished ahead of the S&P 500 (+1.7%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.6%).
Global equity markets tilted to the upside overnight as European bourses continued to recover from their recent weakness. The Euro Stoxx 50 (+2.8%) trimmed its post-Brexit decline to 6.8% while the U.K.'s FTSE (+3.6%) erased its loss, and is now up 3.6% since Thursday's referendum. Additionally, strength from the oil patch contributed to the early positive bias as the energy component gained following the American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory data.
The major U.S. averages gapped higher at the start of the session, bolstered by a largely in-line reading of the Personal Income and Spending Report for May. The release was largely a non-event, having little impact on rate hike expectations. On that note, Federal Reserve Governor Powell commented overnight that global risks have shifted to the downside following the British referendum.
The benchmark index climbed through the afternoon, eventually finding resistance near the 2070 price level. The area is significant as it represents the underside of Friday's gap down and rests within five points of the index's 50-day simple moving average (2076.49). Ten sectors ended in the green with financials (+2.3%) and energy (+2.0%) leading the pack while health care (+1.9%), industrials (+1.8%), and technology (+1.7%) followed.
The economically-sensitive financial sector (+2.3%) ended the session near its best level of the day as money center banks outperformed. In the group, JPMorgan Chase (JPM 61.20, +1.68), Citigroup (C 42.12, +1.68), and Bank of America (BAC 13.19, +0.49) gained between 2.8% and 4.2% ahead of this evening's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) results. Expectations remain high that most banks will be granted approval to boost their respective capital return programs. The broader sector trimmed its monthly loss to 4.9%, but still sports a loss of 5.6% for the year.
Biotechnology displayed relative strength in the health care space (+1.9%), evidenced by the 2.2% rebound in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 256.05, +5.39). The ETF has rallied 6.0% since notching a four-month closing low on Monday (241.49). In the sub-group, large cap Biogen (BIIB 238.91, +10.39) jumped 4.6% after receiving an upgrade to "Outperform" at Bernstein.
The transports outperformed in the industrial sector (+1.8%), evidenced by the 2.2% gain in the Dow Jones Transportation Average. In the sector, airlines outperformed as the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS 20.96, +0.58) rebounded 2.9%. The ETF has trimmed its post-Brexit loss to 5.1%. Elsewhere, General Electric (GE 30.55, +0.61) rallied 2.0% after the company received approval to have its nonbank Systemically Important Financial Institution designation rescinded.
The U.S. Dollar Index (95.79, -0.45) extended its losing streak, weakening for the second session. The euro gained 0.4% against the dollar (1.1106) while the pound finished higher by 0.7% against the buck (1.3437). Separately, the dollar gained 0.1% against the safe haven yen (102.84).
Treasuries spent most of their session near their flat lines despite a persistent rally in equities. However, the complex notched new session lows in the final hour as the yield on the 10-yr note rose four basis points to 1.51%.
Today's participation was above the recent average as more than one billion shares changed hands on the NYSE floor.
Today's economic data included the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, the Personal Income and Spending Report, and Pending Home Sales for May:
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Index showed a seasonally adjusted decrease of 2.6% in mortgage applications.
- Personal income increased 0.2%, which was weaker than expected (consensus +0.3%), and personal spending jumped 0.4%, which was stronger than expected ( consensus +0.3%).
- The core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2%, which was just as expected.
- Income growth was led by a 0.2% increase in wages and salaries.
- Spending growth featured a 0.5% increase in goods spending and a 0.4% increase in services spending.
- The personal savings rate dipped from 5.4% to 5.3%.
- The PCE Price Index increased 0.2%, which left it up 0.9% year-over-year.
- That is down from the 1.1% year-over-year increase seen in April.
- The core PCE Price Index was up 1.6% year-over-year for the third straight month.
- All in all, this was not a report that would have triggered an increased fear of a Fed rate hike at the July meeting even if Brexit didn't happen.
- Brexit, of course, did happen, so the fact that the May report was mixed, and didn't feature a pickup in inflation on a year-over-year basis, will only help to solidify the belief that the Fed is likely on hold for some time yet.
- Pending Home Sales for May declined by 3.7% while the consensus expected a downtick of 1.4%. Meanwhile, the April reading was revised to 3.9% from 5.1%.
Tomorrow economic data will be limited to weekly initial claims (consensus 265k) and Chicago PMI for June (consensus 50.8), which will be released at 8:30 ET and 9:45 ET, respectively.
- Nasdaq Composite -4.6% YTD
- Russell 2000 -0.4% YTD
- S&P 500 +1.3% YTD
- Dow Jones +1.6% YTD
June 29, 2016
European Holdings Companies – Set up Short EXOR (EXO: IM)
Following yesterday’s positive momentum in the markets and the outperformance of EXO: IM vs. its listed assets, the discount to NAV now tightened to 20% - close to the lowest level of the past three years trading history. We believe the real discount is much lower and in the range of 10%-15% given the fact that since the acquisition of PartnerRe the US insurance sector has lost approx. 10%. In addition, on March Exor disposed to PartnerRe its real estate asset in the U.K ”Almacantar” for almost EUR 0.5 bn. Almacantar’s prime assets are in located in central London and Brexit is expected to have a negative impact on the real-estate sector in the U.K and its valuation, strengthening our view that a discount on PartnerRe is required.
Therefore, we factor in our NAV 15% discount to PartnerRe acquisition price, which leads to a discount of ~13% – see our NAV model attached.We note that if we do not factor any discount to PartnerRe acquisition price the spread would be ~20% (still below average level) and if we factor only 10% discount to PartnerRe - the spread is at ~16%.
We also refer investors to our note from June 14 in which we discussed in details the transformation of Exor and our thought on the appropriate discount (back than the spread was 28%). We see the current level as an attractive point to short Exor and hedge with its three listed assets and an ETF on the insurance sector.
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ECR -12.4%, (updates on its operations, provides FY16 capex & production guidance; announced that it has commenced an underwritten public offering of 37,500,000 shares of its common stock), AVAV -7.9%, AYI -2.7%
M&A news: HTCH -7.4% (Hutchinson Tech. updates on status of acquisition by TDK Corporation, says the FTC is continuing its review and has not indicated when its review may be completed)
Select EU financial related names showing weakness: LYG -2%, RBS -1.7%, DB -1.7%, CS -0.9%
Other news: LPCN -52.2% (receives CRL from the FDA regarding its NDA for LPCN 1021), ESPR -32.1% (provides clinical development and regulatory update for Bempedoic Acid; on track to initiate global pivotal Phase 3 studies and CVOT in Q4 ), ECR -12.8% (offering of 37.5 mln shares of its common stock at $3.50 per share), ALV -4.9% (confirms in statement to Reuters its involvement in Toyota's (TM) Prius recall), HR -4.1% (prices offering of 8 mln shares of common stock for gross proceeds of $268 mln), ANTH -2.3% (provides clinical program updates for Blisibimod and Sollpura, says positive trends from BRIGHT-SC proof-of-concept study and study will continue), BUFF -1.0% (prices secondary offering of 15 mln shares common stock by selling stockholders at $22/share), SWN -1.0% (commences 75 mln common stock offering)
Analyst comments: AEG -2.2% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays)
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MCK +2%, GIS +1.7%, SHLM +1.6%, CAMP +0.5%, (also authorizes $25 mln share repurchase)
M&A news: PVTB +23% (PrivateBancorp to be acquired by CIBC (CM) for $18.80 in cash & 0.3657 of a CIBC common share), DRII +18.2% (headlines the company may be near a deal to be acquired by Apollo), OLED +5% (Universal Display acquires the OLED Intellectual Property assets of BASF SE (BASFY) for ~EUR 87 mln), ETE +3.4% (Williams Cos merger with Energy Transfer (ETE) terminated), CM +2.4% (PrivateBancorp to be acquired by CIBC (CM) for $18.80 in cash & 0.3657 of a CIBC common share), WMB +1.7% (Williams Cos merger with Energy Transfer (ETE) terminated), TSLA +1.6% (CtW Investment Group urges Tesla's Board to form a special committee to review SolarCity (SCTY) acquisition and other governance reforms), AA +1.4% (files initial form 10 registration statement for separation of upstream business, Alcoa Corporation)
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: GFI +6.1%, HMY +4.5%, AG +4.4%, SBGL +4.3%, PAAS +4.2%, AU +3.7%, SLV +3.1%, RIO +3%, KGC +1.8%
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: BCEI +7.1%, WLL +4.4%, CHK +3.5%, PBR +3.2%, OAS +2.9%, BP +2.7%, TOT +2.6%
Other news: TSRO +73.9% (announces that the Phase 3 NOVA trial of niraparib successfully achieved its primary endpoint of progression-free survival), BPMX +27.1% (announces topline results from its Phase 2a safety study of BPX-01), IBIO +18.2% (granted orphan designation by the FDA for the its compound for the treatment of systemic sclerosis), UQM +16.1% (signs definitive stock issuance and purchase agreement with Hybrid Kinetic Group), AMRS +15.8% (Amyris and Ginkgo Bioworks partner; partnership is expected to generate over $300 million in incremental value for both companies over the next 5 years), CLVS +12.1% (trading higher in sympathy with other biotech peers), CTRV +11.5% (ContraVir Pharma and Center Point Clinical Services renew partnership agreemen), ATNM +11% ( initiates pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial for lead asset Iomab-B), MYGN +7.3% (announces its myChoice HRD test successfully identified an increased number of patients with ovarian cancer who may benefit from treatment with niraparib), CGIX +7.1% (announces that it offers Ventana PD-L1 assay as a complementary diagnostic IHC test for Genentech's (RHHBY) Tecentriq), KMPH +6.5% ( announces results from a Phase 1 proof-of-concept trial with KP511; KP511 clinical data consistent with preclinical animal data ), BSTG +6.2% (submits application to the FDA seeking oprhan designation for its Cellspan Esophageal Implants), FUEL +3.9% (continued strength after CNBC reported intraday that presidential candidate Donald Trump was using Rocket Fuel's software to track potential supporters behavior), SHPG +3.5% (announces positive topline results of SHP465 efficacy and safety study in adults with ADHD), DRNA +2.8% (announces that new preclinical data shows the potential of Dicerna Galxc subcutaneous delivery platform as Rnai drug discovery enging), BT +2.6% (provides revised financials reflecting previously announced organizational change), LC +2% (Bloomberg detailed comments from today's annual meeting, in which CEO Scott Sanborn disclosed that an investor has started buying $1 bln in debt while others wrap up their due diligence ), GILD +1.3% (Diplomat Pharmacy announces it will dispense Gilead's EPCLUSA for the treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection)
Analyst comments: DAR +3.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), RIG +2.4% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Evercore ISI), HZNP +2% (initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital), NICE +1.5% (resumed with a Overweight at JP Morgan)