New US settlement does not resolve several investigations, and bill for the affair could rise
Europe’s largest carmaker on Tuesday
agreed with US authorities to pay up to $10.03bn to buy back or fix almost half a million cars equipped with software to cheat during official emissions tests. VW has also agreed to pay a $2.7bn fine to environmental authorities for excess pollution, invest $2bn in green vehicle technology and offer $603m to 44 US states and two other territories to resolve legal claims.
But the settlement reached in the US — where regulators uncovered the
VW scandal last September — is not the end of the story, warn analysts. “This is a major win and a step in the right direction, but the fat lady is not warming her vocals,” says Mike Tyndall at Citi.
In April, VW set aside €16.2bn to pay for the costs of the affair, prompting the German company to report the biggest annual loss in its history for 2015. A key risk is that VW has to increase this €16.2bn number, although it says there are no plans to do so.
If the US owners of cars made by VW group accept the terms of the deal, that will settle a class-action lawsuit relating to 475,000 2 litre diesel engine vehicles that were fitted with illegal defeat devices to understate emissions of harmful nitrogen oxides in official tests.
But VW still faces civil and criminal investigations in the US and elsewhere that could lead to fines, and it is also
under pressure in the EU to pay compensation to European owners of cars caught up in the scandal.
The US Department of Justice said the settlement only “partially” resolves claims under the country’s clean air act, and the deal has no bearing on a
civil lawsuit it filed against VW in January. Nor does the settlement include 85,000 3 litre diesel vehicles that were also fitted with defeat devices.
“While this announcement is an important step forward, let me be clear: it is by no means the last,” said deputy attorney-general Sally Yates on Tuesday. “We will continue to follow the facts wherever they go.”
In Europe, where 8.5m VW group cars were fitted with defeat devices, a key risk for the company is that the US settlement is used as a precedent to demand similar treatment.
Elzbieta Bienkowska, the EU commissioner responsible for industry, has called for “comparable” compensation to the US for European owners of VW cars fitted with defeat devices to restore customer trust.
In the US, affected car owners will be given a minimum of $5,100 each in compensation by VW. If that were applied to the affected cars in Europe, VW would have an additional bill of $43bn.
But this figure is not considered realistic by analysts. “There’s no way [VW] would agree to anything approaching that figure,” says Stephen Reitman, analyst at Société Générale.
VW has argued the US settlement is unique, owing to how limits on NOx emissions are tougher in the US compared to the EU.
As a result of the EU’s less onerous rules, fixing VW’s European cars affected by the scandal is relatively straightforward compared to the US.
Moreover, VW is under limited pressure as far as a consumer backlash is concerned following the affair. From January to May, the 12-brand group that includes VW and Audi delivered 4.2m cars worldwide, up 0.8 per cent compared to the same period last year. In Europe, deliveries rose 3.7 per cent.
Mr Tyndall says he is confident the €16.2bn that VW has set aside should cover all scandal-related costs.
However, he admits there are major uncertainties. “They’ve done a mea culpa in the US — the rest of the world is open to debate,” he adds.
He points out hedge funds are still trying to recover billions of euros in losses from Porsche, arising from
market manipulation allegations first made in late-2008. The case has long weighed on the stock of VW, which owns Porsche.
Mr Tyndall’s worry is not that VW’s scandal costs will escalate per se, but that the affair “could drag on and on and on” like the Porsche case.
Analysts at BNP Exane Paribas estimate VW’s scandal costs could be as high as €23.7bn.
This calculation includes €2bn of civil fines and €2.5bn of criminal penalties in the US, plus €5bn of costs in Europe, split evenly between legal claims and efforts to restore trust with car owners by fixing vehicles and paying compensation.
A VW insider admits the company’s €16.2bn provision only “partially” covers civil and criminal fines in the US and does not include legal claims in Europe. He adds the company cannot be more precise because it does not know what these costs will be.
Chief among the factors that could put a cap on VW’s costs is this: the $10.03bn set aside to buy back or fix cars in the US affected by the scandal assumes that 100 per cent of all eligible owners sell their vehicles at their second hand price immediately before the affair broke in September last year.
One person familiar with the matter estimates up to 90 per cent of customers could choose to have their vehicle fixed, rather than bought back.
If the owner of an Audi with a September 2015 value of $44,000 accepts a fix, plus a $10,000 compensation payment, VW saves tens of thousands of dollars.
Multiply that by hundreds of thousands of cars and VW’s bill drops “many billions lower,” says this person. “You do the math.”