June 29, 2016
European Holdings Companies – Set up Short EXOR (EXO: IM)
Following yesterday’s positive momentum in the markets and the outperformance of EXO: IM vs. its listed assets, the discount to NAV now tightened to 20% - close to the lowest level of the past three years trading history. We believe the real discount is much lower and in the range of 10%-15% given the fact that since the acquisition of PartnerRe the US insurance sector has lost approx. 10%. In addition, on March Exor disposed to PartnerRe its real estate asset in the U.K ”Almacantar” for almost EUR 0.5 bn. Almacantar’s prime assets are in located in central London and Brexit is expected to have a negative impact on the real-estate sector in the U.K and its valuation, strengthening our view that a discount on PartnerRe is required.
Therefore, we factor in our NAV 15% discount to PartnerRe acquisition price, which leads to a discount of ~13% – see our NAV model attached.We note that if we do not factor any discount to PartnerRe acquisition price the spread would be ~20% (still below average level) and if we factor only 10% discount to PartnerRe - the spread is at ~16%.
We also refer investors to our note from June 14 in which we discussed in details the transformation of Exor and our thought on the appropriate discount (back than the spread was 28%). We see the current level as an attractive point to short Exor and hedge with its three listed assets and an ETF on the insurance sector.
Makor Capital
11 Menachem Begin St., 26th FL
Ramat Gan 52681
ISRAEL
Tel +972 3 5453 762Fax +972 3 7162 680
Research Disclaimer
This publication has been prepared by Makor Capital Limited (“Makor Capital”) and is intended for professional or qualified investors only. Makor Securities London Ltd (“Makor Securities”)is distributing this material to its clients who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients under FCA Rules. It may also be disseminated to persons who are Investment Professionals within the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion Order 2005). In the United States, Makor Capital only distributes this material to major US institutional investors (as that term is defined in Rule 15a-6 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934) and to SEC-registered broker-dealers or banks acting in a broker–dealer capacity. This material is not intended for distribution to any other persons and should not be redistributed. If you do not fall into any of these categories you should disregard it.
This material is a marketing communication. It is not investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. It is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research under U.K. law. This material is not a research report and is not intended to be a research report as defined under U.S. securities laws and regulations. This material is not intended to provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base any investment decision.
This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients or other recipients. Before acting on this material, clients and other recipients should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.
This material should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action.
In the United States, Makor Capital does not offer securities services to U.S. persons except pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 only to major US institutional investors and SEC registered broker-dealers or banks acting in a broker–dealer capacity. Transactions in the United States must be effected through the U.S. broker-dealer, Oscar Gruss & Son Incorporated. Oscar Gruss & Son has not prepared, reviewed or distributed this material.
Some of this material is produced by providers which Makor Securities believes to be reliable, but Makor Securities does not warrant or represent (expressly or impliedly) that it is accurate, complete, not misleading or as to its fitness for the purpose intended and it should not be relied upon as such.
Opinions expressed will be the current opinions of those producing this material as of the date appearing on this material only. We expect those producing the material in this publication to update it on a timely basis but can give no undertaking that they will do so and regulatory compliance or other reasons may prevent them from doing so (or us from disseminating updated material).
Members and employees of Makor Securities London Ltd, employees of Makor Capital, Makor Capital Markets may from time to time have long or short positions in securities, warrants, futures, options, derivatives or other financial instruments referred to in this material. For Makor Securities, this information is set out in our Conflicts of Interest Policy which is available on request. Policies for the production of research from other research providers are available on request. Unless otherwise stated, share prices provided within this material are as at the close of business on the day prior to the date of the material.
Neither the whole nor any part of this material may be duplicated in any form or by any means. Neither should any of this material be redistributed or disclosed to anyone without prior consent. This material is issued for general information and discussion purposes only. None of Makor Securities, Makor Capital, Makor Capital Markets accepts liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of all or any of this material.
The services, securities and investments discussed in this material may not be available to, nor are suitable for all investors. Investors should make their own investment decisions based upon their own financial objectives and financial resources and it should be noted that investment involves risk, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance is no guide to future performance. In relation to securities denominated in foreign currency, movements in exchange rates will have an effect on the value, either favourable or unfavourable.
All investors. Investors should make their own investment decisions based upon their own financial objectives and financial resources and it should be noted that investment involves risk, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance is no guide to future performance. In relation to securities denominated in foreign currency, movements in exchange rates will have an effect on the value, either favourable or unfavourable.
Entities
Makor Securities London Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct
Authority (FCA registration number 625054)
Makor Capital, company number 514456466, is incorporated in Israel and is a 100% held
subsidiary of Makor Holdings Pte Ltd incorporated in Singapore.
Makor Capital Markets SA, company number CH-660.2.999.011-0 is incorporated in Switzerland
and is also a 100% held subsidiary of Makor Holdings Pte Ltd.
Having trouble viewing this email? Click here
lchekroun@makor-cm.comThis email was sent to by Research@Makor-Capital.com
V.I.Plus e-mail marketing