Barron's : A Downbeat Year for Many Indexes, but Not All Sectors

A Downbeat Year for Many Indexes, but Not All Sectors
Europe was beset by woes in 2016, but basic materials, energy shares, and the FTSE 100 shined

European equity markets had two years in one in 2016, and neither was pleasant.

In the early months of the year, the Continent’s stocks were pummeled by weak oil prices and worries about slowing economic growth in China. As those pressures eased, they were replaced by potentially more damaging local issues, including Britain’s surprise decision to leave the European Union, terror attacks in France, Belgium, and Germany, and growing popular support for Europe’s anti-establishment, anti-EU political parties.

That the Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped 1.4% for the year probably is good news; the loss could have been much worse. In the days following the U.K.’s so-called Brexit vote in June, the index hit its nadir, down almost 16% on the year. Since then, it has rebounded, adding nearly 17%.

Britain’s FTSE 100 was a standout performer among European indexes, gaining 13% last year and confounding grim forecasts about a Brexit fallout. Britain won’t launch the formal two-year process to leave the EU for at least another few months, however, so the full economic impact remains unknown.

The FTSE’s performance is attributed mainly to the benefits of the pound’s decline since the referendum. It plunged immediately after the vote and has slipped further since. It currently stands at around $1.22, its lowest level in more than 30 years. On the plus side, about 80% of FTSE 100 companies are exporters, whose income has been boosted by sterling’s weakness.

EURO-ZONE STOCK MARKETS appear to have suffered more from Brexit than the U.K. on concerns that other members might follow suit, potentially destroying the EU and taking the euro currency with it.

Among the largest economies, Germany’s DAX rose 6.7% in 2016 while France’s CAC-40 was up 4.5%. Investors in Spain and Italy—countries at the center of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis five years ago—haven’t fared so well. Spain’s Ibex is down nearly 2% and Italy’s FTSE MIB has lost almost 10%.

The Italian government suffered a bruising loss in a referendum on proposed constitutional changes at the beginning of December, and several of the country’s largest banks need beefing up with fresh capital. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (ticker: BMPS.Italy), Italy’s third-biggest lender, was supposed to plug an 8.8 billion euro ($9.19 billion) capital shortfall by the end of the year.

Readers of this column were encouraged to avoid Italian banks in the early part of 2016. The same could have been said for most of the European banking sector, where several of the biggest players were battling costly litigation and struggling to persuade investors they were financially sound.

European banking stocks have fallen by more than 7% in the past year, but outperformed most other sectors in the second half of 2016, rising 44% as government bond yields picked up. Germany’s Deutsche Bank ’s (DB) shares have jumped a whopping 65% in the latest quarter, and Switzerland’s Credit Suisse Group (CS) is up 22%. Both banks reached multibillion-dollar settlements with U.S. authorities in recent weeks, resolving claims against them for alleged wrongdoing, and eliminating uncertainty about fines.

Tim Gregory, a fund manager with London-based Vermeer Investment Management, says low interest rates and the banking sector’s financial pressures have kept investors away for years, a situation that began to change around the time of the Brexit vote.

“Since then, [government bond] yield curves have steepened a little and the banking sector has responded strongly, a move that has been exacerbated by the scale to which investors were underweight the sector,” he says. “U.S. yields have steepened significantly since the November election, and this has accelerated the rally.”

European government bond yields were crushed in the immediate aftermath of the U.K. referendum, pushing some into negative territory. As the Brexit panic subsided, they climbed anew, helped by an outlook for greater inflation.

THE INSURANCE SECTOR enjoyed a late surge under the same impetus, with European insurance stocks up more than 16% in the past three months despite slipping nearly 6% for the full year. Two stocks recommended here were ahead of the pack, with France’s AXA (CS.France) adding 29% in the final quarter and Dutch insurer NN Group (NN.Netherlands) up 22%.

Among European stock sectors, the steadiest and strongest gains came from basic resources, up 54% for the year. Oil and gas stocks rose 20%. Investors in both sectors have benefited from steadily recovering commodity prices. Oil has climbed from a 14-year low of around $28 a barrel in January to $58 now.

Two Barron’s stock picks have done well as a result, with France’s Total (TOT) up 14% on the year and 18% in the latest quarter, and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) adding 42% during 2016 and 23% in the past three months.

Barron's : More Pain Than Gain for Asian Markets in 2016

More Pain Than Gain for Asian Markets in 2016
Most market were hurt by global and local issues, but Pakistan and Thailand rewarded investors nicely.

For investors in Asia, 2016 was a year to forget. Equity returns were paltry, currencies were a drag, and for much of the year, more money was yanked from than put to work in the markets. Asian markets were hurt by global events such as Brexit, or Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, the election of trade-pact critic Donald J. Trump as U.S. president, and the Federal Reserve’s fourth-quarter interest-rate hike, with promises of more to come.

Softer global trade and the collapse of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement are expected to hurt the world’s most trade-reliant region. Markets also moved down on the death of Thailand’s long-serving monarch, the botched demonetization of the Indian rupee, a controversial tax amnesty in Indonesia, the impeachment of South Korea’s president, and the 1MDB sovereign-wealth-fund corruption scandal in Malaysia, involving Prime Minister Najib Razak.

Yet the more things changed, the more they remained the same. The Bank of Japan hardly made an impact with such ostensibly bold moves as the introduction of a negative-interest-rate policy; attempts to stimulate the economy by doubling purchases of exchange-traded funds; capping 10-year bond yields, and vowing to overshoot its 2% inflation target. The yen strengthened nearly 19% in the first eight months of last year, and then eased, closing up just 3% for the year at 117 to a dollar. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was barely in positive territory, gaining 0.5% for the year.

China’s fiscal and monetary stimulus likewise underwhelmed. Instead, investors focused on China’s burgeoning credit bubble and troubled bank loans.

Across the region, stocks were weighed down by falling earnings expectations. Markets fared better in countries like Thailand, where earnings met expectations. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index ended down 2% in 2016 after a 7.5% fall in the last quarter. Normally more resilient, the China Enterprise Index of top mainland China H-shares listed in Hong Kong fared worse, skidding 3.7%. The Shanghai Composite was down 13% and the Shenzen Component Index was off 20%. India BSE’s Sensex ended flat for the year as investors struggled to make sense of the government’s demonetization program, designed to remove larger bills from circulation.

Among Asia’s few bright spots, the tech-heavy Taiwan market rose 10% for the year. A rebound in commodities lifted Australia, up 7% for the year. Mining giant BHP Billiton (ticker: BHP. Australia) rallied 73% from its February lows. Korea’s KOSPI eked out a 3% gain as its largest listing, Samsung Electronics (05930.Korea), plunged on the Galaxy Note 7 recall, but then rebounded, to close up 42% for the year. Vietnam was flat, as was Singapore, due to falling property prices and turmoil in its offshore energy sector. But Thailand rose 19%, and Indonesia, 15%, as economic recovery got underway.

Asia’s best performer, Pakistan, rose 43% in 2016 in dollar terms. Stocks had begun the year trading at only eight times forward earnings, and yielding 5%. Pakistan will return to emerging-market status in 2017, after eight years as a frontier market. It is benefiting from political stability, low oil prices, record-low interest rates, and $46 billion in infrastructure investments by China.

Nomura’s Asia strategist Mixo Das sees more pain ahead for Asian markets, but is betting that India is poised to break out of the pack, with strong gains.

FT : New UK tax evasion penalties come into force

New UK tax evasion penalties come into force
Professional advisers face fines of up to £3,000 for helping their clients to evade tax

New penalties for professional advisers who help their clients to evade tax come into force today, as part of a bid by the government to tackle abuses of the excise system.

Accountants, bankers, lawyers and other advisers can be fined by up to the value of the tax they helped their client evade, up to a maximum of £3,000. HMRC will also name and shame company involved.

The measure was first announced by then-chancellor George Osborne in 2015 and a consultation on the plan was launched in August, just weeks after Theresa May pledged during her leadership campaign to pursue companies over tax avoidance.

“It doesn’t matter to me whether you’re Amazon, Google or Starbucks: you have a duty to put something back, you have a debt to fellow citizens and you have a responsibility to pay your taxes,” she said at the time.

Accounting bodies warned during the consultation that the government needed to ensure the move did not prevent investors receiving impartial professional advice.

Jane Ellison, the financial secretary to the Treasury, said: “Tax evasion is a crime and as a government we have led reform of the international tax system to root it out. Closer to home we are creating a tax system where taxes are fair, competitive and paid.

“The raft of measures we have introduced to tackle avoidance and evasion will create a level playing field for the vast majority of people and businesses who play fair and pay what is due.”

This year will also see the creation of a new criminal offence for companies which fail to prevent the facilitation of tax evasion. The government is currently legislating for the measure, under which a company will be held liable if one of its employees or contractors facilitates tax evasion.

This strengthens the current rules in which prosecutors must prove that the company’s board of directors was aware of and involved in the facilitation.

Additionally the government is introducing a new requirement to declare historic tax evasion. Anyone who has not owned up to past evasion by 30 September 2018 could face new penalties.

The Treasury is also consulting on whether to introduce a new requirement on businesses and individuals with complex offshore financial arrangements to notify HMRC of them.

Since 2010 HMRC has brought in £130bn in its crackdown on tax evasion, tax avoidance and non-compliance.

Last year Mr Osborne unveiled plans to shut down disguised remuneration schemes such as employee benefit trusts and contractor loans, in a move the Treasury forecast at the time would raise £2.5bn over five years.

HMRC has also won a series of court victories against film investment schemes that attracted high-profile investors and were deemed to inflate their losses to maximise tax relief.

FT : China tightens control of personal forex purchases

China tightens control of personal forex purchases
Authorities complain of ‘leaks’ in the system and demand reporting of large deals

China has tightened checks on citizens exchanging foreign currency in anticipation of renewed downward pressure on the renminbi in the new year.

Banks have been asked to improve standards for verifying customers’ identities and to report “large or questionable transactions”, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe) said in a public statement at the weekend.

“There have been leaks in China’s system of personal foreign exchange purchases,” the statement said, giving as an example the way individuals and companies avoid capital controls on overseas investments by disguising their transactions as goods purchases.

China’s policymakers have clamped down on capital flows leaving the country in recent weeks, imposing fresh restrictions on outbound corporate acquisitions and investments. European companies have reported difficulties in remitting dividends to stockholders abroad. The restrictions are partly an attempt to keep the renminbi from steep falls in the future after it depreciated almost 6 per cent against the dollar in 2016.

China’s capital controls limit individuals to buying no more than $50,000 each year in foreign currency, a quota which resets on Sunday, January 1. The renminbi may come under fresh pressure to weaken when individuals use their fresh quotas after banks reopen on Tuesday.

“The first day of the new year can be crazy — it’s always a big test for the renminbi,” said Jonas Short, head of research at NSBO China, an investment bank. “People who are anticipating further renminbi depreciation will take out their quota early in the year, and some will want to take out the full amount as soon as they can.”

The central bank is trying to ensure the renminbi’s value stays above the red line of Rmb7 per dollar, a symbolic number for the country’s policymakers. The renminbi was trading at Rmb6.94 to the dollar at the weekend.

On Thursday night the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, scolded media outlets for being irresponsible in reporting the exchange rate crossing Rmb7 to the dollar, after a momentary glitch in the Bloomberg currency quote system showed the renminbi weakening beyond that point during overnight trading.

China’s foreign reserves fell by almost $200bn last year after the central bank sold dollar reserves in order to prop up the value of the renminbi against the dollar.

At the same time as guarding the Rmb7: $1 line, central bankers are also trying to keep foreign exchange reserves falling below the $3tn mark. Domestic economists say the two goals are hard to achieve simultaneously without the help of capital controls.

WSJ : Oil Prices Have a Slippery Path Upward

Oil Prices Have a Slippery Path Upward
Oil prices may finally have stabilized, but hurdles to further gains remain

Oil prices may finally have stabilized, but hurdles to further gains remain.

After more than two years of a crude glut that drove prices to decade lows, analysts and industry executives see supply and demand of oil rebalancing next year. A deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other heavyweight producers to cut around 2% from global production in 2017 is expected to push prices close to $60 a barrel, a level not seen since the summer of 2015.

Market watchers expect prices to stay volatile, however, given OPEC members and other producers often haven’t followed through on similar agreements in the past. Higher prices may also encourage U.S. drillers to ramp up output, while a slowdown in global demand for crude could curb any rally, analysts say.


On Friday, West Texas intermediate crude closed at $53.72, up 45.03% for the year, the commodity’s best performance since 2009.

For now, industry insiders appear optimistic. “The mood has definitely turned more bullish, people are more confident that OPEC will do enough to rebalance the market in the first half of 2017,” said Adam Ritchie, a director of consulting firm Petro-Logistics SA.


That would be a welcome development for an industry that has been hit hard by lower prices. The oil-price rout has cost hundreds of thousands of jobs, strained the budgets of producers and led to delays or cancellation for dozens of multibillion-dollar projects.

Mr. Ritchie says, however, that the glut in oil stockpiles, which he estimates at around 1 billion barrels world-wide, will take a long time to drain.

“I don’t think people have fully grasped the scale of the excess inventory that has to clear, so the imbalance between supply and demand needs to be corrected dramatically and for a very long period of time,” he said.

A survey of 14 investment banks by The Wall Street Journal predicts that Brent crude, the international oil-price gauge, will average $56 a barrel in 2017. They expect West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil gauge, to average $54 a barrel in the year.

Oil prices fluctuated in 2016: Brent fell to a multiyear low of under $28 a barrel last January and struggled to breach the $50 level until the OPEC deal pushed prices higher.

One of the biggest challenges for oil prices in 2017 will be whether the countries that signed up to cut production will deliver on that agreement. OPEC members and suppliers including Russia struck a deal in early December to cut around 1.8 million barrels a day of crude starting in January.

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OPEC has a poor record of sticking to supply agreements. In 17 production cuts since 1982, OPEC members have reduced output by an average of just 60% of their commitments, according to Goldman Sachs.

“Until you start to see volumes come out of the market I don’t know that you can say this is anything beyond sentiment,” said Saad Rahim, chief economist at trade house Trafigura Group Pte Ltd.

With oil prices expected to firm, increasingly efficient U.S. shale drillers might present another hurdle on the path to rebalancing.

Some analysts have called the OPEC deal a gift to U.S. producers, which are generally seen as better able than their counterparts abroad to ramp up production in a hurry when prices rise.

“The issue OPEC has is it becomes a self-defeating mechanism—if they can cut enough to raise prices, all that does is incentivize other production,” Mr. Rahim said.

The number of rigs drilling for crude in the U.S. has been rising since the summer and the additional supply from their wells is yet to hit the market due to the lag between drilling activity and production.

Citigroup estimates that if prices rise toward $60 a barrel next year, U.S. production would increase to 9.2 million barrels a day by December and to over 10 million by the end of 2018. It is currently running at around 8.8 million barrels a day.


A sustained rally in prices also could curb demand for crude. Analysts already expect 2017 global oil consumption to increase at its slowest pace in three years. That is mainly as China limits its crude purchases and the stronger dollar, which recently surged to a 14-year high against a basket of other currencies, makes crude more expensive for foreign buyers. And as motorists start to feel the price rises at the pump, demand could slow.

Even if the market clears all its hurdles to higher prices, there are few predicting a return to $100 oil. In the summer of 2015, many of the banks in the Journal’s monthly survey were predicting oil prices would rise to more than $70 a barrel this year. Now, that level doesn’t seem likely until 2018.

>>> FCC delisting offer to run from 30 December 2016 to 13 February 2017

FCC delisting offer to run from 30 December 2016 to 13 February 2017

Spain's stock exchange market regulator CNMV announced on 29 December that Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas (FCC) has published the first of the announcements of the public tender offer for shares of
Cementos Portland Valderrivas. In accordance with the terms set forth in the prospectus of FCC's offer, the acceptance period extends from 30 December 2016 until 13 February 2017, both included.

>>> Hengdeli Holdings to sell two business units to its chairman for CNY 3.5bn

Hengdeli Holdings to sell two business units to its chairman for CNY 3.5bn

Hengdeli Holdings [HKG: 3389], a Hong Kong-based watch retailer, announced that it has signed an agreement to sell the Xinyu Sale Shares and the Harvest Max Sale Shares at an aggregate cash consideration of approximately CNY 3.5bn (USD 504m) to the company’s chairman Zhang Yuping.
The Xinyu Sale Shares represent the entire issued share capital of Xinyu as at the date of the Agreement. The Harvest Max Sale Shares represent approximately 75.54% of the issued share capital of Harvest Max as at the date of the Agreement.
The Xinyu Group is principally engaged in (i) retail sale of mid to high-end internationally renowned watch brands in the PRC; (ii) wholesale of mid-end internationally renowned watch brands in the PRC; and (iii) provision of after-sale service.
The Harvest Max Group is principally engaged in the retail of jewellery, low-to-mid-end watch brands and general merchandises including but not limited to electronic appliances and cosmetics products in Hong Kong.
INTENDED USE OF PROCEEDS
Having taken into account the unaudited net asset value of the Disposal Group of CNY 5.1bn as at 30 June 2016 and the minimum Dividend Payout of approximately CNY 1.6bn, it is expected that the Consideration will be approximately CNY 3.5bn. Together with the settlement of net amounts due by the Disposal Group to the Remaining Group of approximately CNY 0.9bn, the Company will receive an aggregate net cash inflow of approximately CNY 5.8bn (net of estimated withholding tax of approximately CNY 0.2bn and direct expenses attributable to the Disposal of approximately CNY 7m). The Company intends to apply the net cash inflow of approximately CNY 5.8bn generated from the Disposal as to: (i) approximately 55% or CNY 3.2bn for repayment of the debts of the Remaining Group; (ii) not less than approximately 14% or CNY 0.8bn for distribution of Special Dividend to the Shareholders (representing Special Dividend of not less than HKD 0.20 per Share based on the number of outstanding Shares as at the date of this announcement); and (iii) the remaining balance for general working capital and business development of the Remaining Group, including but not limited to enhancing the market standing and presence of the retail business in Hong Kong and Taiwan and expanding the retail business of the Remaining Group in overseas markets. It should be noted that the actual cash inflow to be generated from the Disposal and received by the Company will depend on the financial position of the Disposal Group as at 31 December 2016 and the exchange rates between Renminbi and Hong Kong dollars at the material time.
After Completion, the Remaining Group will be principally engaged in (i) retail sale of mid to top-end internationally renowned watch brands in Hong Kong and Taiwan; and (ii) manufacturing of watch accessories.
SPECIAL DIVIDEND
Subject to approval of the Shareholders at the EGM and Completion taking place, the Board intends to declare the Special Dividend of not less than HKD 0.20 per Share to the Shareholders whose names appear on the register of members of the Company on a record date to be determined. A further announcement will be made by the Company in this regard as and when appropriate.

>>> Agent Provocateur owner 3i seeking exit; Rothschild lined up as sale adviser

Agent Provocateur owner 3i seeking exit; Rothschild lined up as sale adviser, Alix Partners advising on turnaround strategy - report

Agent Provocateur private equity owner 3i [LON:III] has hired the restructuring specialist Alix Partners to advise on a turnaround strategy ahead of a sale of the UK-based lingerie company, The Sunday Times reported. The newspaper did not attribute the information about the appointment but went on to cite City sources who said prospective buyers had been alerted.
An auction is imminent, the report said, adding the investment bank Rothschild is standing by for the advisory mandate on the sale process.
The article noted that 3i wrote down Agent Provocateur’s value by GBP 39m in November due to accounting irregularities. 3i subsequently injected GBP 4m of cash into Agent Provocateur, the item added.
One retail source cited by the newspaper estimated that Agent Provocateur might fetch as little as GBP 15m (EUR 17.5m).
Agent Provocateur’s recent problems will likely narrow the field of potential buyers, the article said. Insiders cited by the report the sale will probably be of interest to turnaround specialists such as Rutland Partners and Alteri Investors.
3i refused to comment, the item said adding that the newspaper was unable to contact Rothschild and Alix Partners by its publication deadline.

Background:
This news service reported on 10 April 2015 that 3i had postponed a sale of Agent Provocateur following a strategic review conducted by the investment bank Goldman Sachs.