>>> Paulson - 13F

Paulson & Co (John Paulson) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New position in EMC; Increased stake in ODP, VRX; Trimmed position in ATVI, GRFS; Closed stake in CIT, WLL
Highlights from 2016 Q2 filing as compared to 2016 Q1 filing:
  • New positions in: EMC (~10 mln shares), JNJ (~0.1 mln), Q (~0.2 mln), SNY (~0.4 mln), TTWO (~1 mln), VMW (~2 mln)
  • Increased positions in: ODP (to ~15.7 mln shares from ~7.8 mln shares), SGYP (to ~27.8 mln from ~11.1 mln), VRX (to ~19.1 mln from ~13.3 mln)
  • Decreased positions in: ATVI (to ~1 mln shares from ~3.1 mln shares), BEAV (to ~1 mln from ~3 mln), FCH (to ~1 mln from ~2 mln), GRFS (to ~7.3 mln from ~17.5 mln), LIVN (to ~0.3 mln from ~2.5 mln), NG (to ~25.7 mln from ~35.5 mln), PRGO (to ~12.5k from ~2.6 mln), TMUS (to ~1 mln from ~14.6 mln)
  • Closed positions in: CIT (from ~3.5 mln shares), LRCX (from ~4.5 mln), DPLO (from ~0.2 mln), MTG (from ~2.7 mln), POST (from ~3.7 mln), RDN(from ~3.7 mln), WLL (from ~3.2 mln

>>> William Hill and Rank/888 basing calculations of new offer's value on differ

William Hill and Rank/888 basing calculations of new offer's value on different dates; Takeover Panel intervention may be necessary - reports
Story
William Hill [LON:WMH] yesterday (15 August) said the improved takeover offer or 394p per share from Rank Group [LON:RNK] and 888 Holdings [LON:888] valued the UK-based bookmaker at only 352p, The Times reported.

Rank and 888 calculated the value of their cash plus shares offer for William Hill based on 888’s share price on 5 August, the day preceding their initial offer. However, William Hill calculates its figure on the aggregate market capitalisations of all three companies on 22 July, which was immediately before speculation of 888 and Rank's joint offer was confirmed, the item noted.

The Takeover Panel could be asked to take action regarding the different methods of calculation, the item said, without citing a source for the information.

William Hill announced on Monday that it had rejected the second offer from 888 and Rank, saying the proposal relied on debt, risk and hope and that the new offer was substantially below its true value.

The revised offer values William Hill at GBP 3.42bn (EUR 3.93bn), compared to the GBP 3.16bn value of the initial offer, the item said.

Rank and 888 had maintained the same cash component from its offer last of 364p per shares but increased the number of shares offered, raising the bid's value to 394p, the report noted. The revised offer would give William Hill investors a 48.8% stake in the merged group, compared with a 44.7% stake under the terms of the initial offer, the article added.

William Hill’s share price closed 21.2p down at 312.5p in London on Monday, giving the company a market capitalisation of GBP 2.71bn.

(BofA-ML) GLOBAL FUND SURVEY

Global Fund Manager Survey

Wall Street finds its “safe space”


Key takeaways

·         Investors less bearish, but FMS "fear" yet to flip to "greed". Stock prices to rise further until bonds throw another tantrum

·         Cash drops sharply: from 5.8% (15-year high) to 5.4%. Another sharp drop in FMS cash to <5.1% in Sep signals end of rally

·         Central bank creation of "safe space" of low & stable rates = fresh optimism & FMS preference for deflation>inflation assets.

European Fund Manager Survey

UK unloved


Key takeaways

·         Sentiment less bearish as cash levels fall, but Eurozone equity allocations unchanged and UK still a contrarian buy

·         Muted EU growth outlook despite many feeling that monetary policy is too stimulative; most see room for fiscal boost

·         No pro- or anti-cyclical sector bias with Autos and Healthcare most preferred; Basics most underweight

 

http://t.sidekickopen06.com/e1t/o/5/f18dQhb0S7ks8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9gXrN7sKj6v5dlQxW4XyQDd4WrNJRW5wf5Jx3LvrVvW85mN421k1H6H0?si=5651968104595456&pi=5aa22c77-4c2f-47bc-8a82-a4da4df29436

(UBS) European Luxury : Tourism spend in July -14.0%; tough early Q3

Tourism spend in July -14.0%; tough early Q3

July Global Blue tourism spend -14% y/y, Q2 -12% y/y, Q1 -6% y/y
Tourism spend is an important component of luxury revenue making up c35% of sales globally according to Bain. Our monthly report on VAT refund provider Global Blue's data gives us a good indication of travel spending trends. The sector has re-rated and now sits at a 26% premium to the market on the back of more stable than expected Q2 trends. Tourism spend in July (-14.0% y/y) has however remained poor in line with June (-13.7% y/y) despite easier comps (11pt) and Ramadan falling 2 weeks earlier than last year benefitting trends at the start of this month. Chinese spend remained weak impacted by currency, worries on travel post events in Paris, Brussels and Nice as well as increased import restrictions. Company commentary has suggested that trends have rebounded in Mainland China. Korea is the bright spot along with the UK in local currency terms. We await any tangible sign of stabilisation in HK.

Early Q3 still showing weaker trends in Continental Europe
Last year the peak growth rates y/y of tourists took place between March and August. Currencies played an important role in stretching luxury price differentials and making regions including Europe relatively more attractive destinations. Fast forward 12 months and the RMB:EUR has depreciated c8% y/y and regional price differentials have been narrowed in soft luxury and substantially reduced in much of hard luxury.

By destination: Europe (-20%) remained weak but Asia (+9%) improved
In Europe, France (-24% y/y) and Italy (-18% y/y) were the weakest markets. Within Asia the stronger yen is making Japan (-27% y/y in local currency) less attractive than Korea which saw stellar trends (+214% y/y) on the back of an easy comparison base post the impact from the MERS outbreak on travel last year. Burberry, Swatch, Kering and Ferragamo have stated that HK is sequentially improving which we see as likely related to more attractive intra-Asia price gaps. The UK also grew in local currency terms (+6% we estimate) due to the weaker pound.

By nationality: Chinese tourism spending (ex HK) fell -24% in July, -16% YTD
Chinese spend was -24% y/y (June -18%) against the major step up in tourist spend last year. The Japanese consumer saw solid growth (+31%) due to the strengthening yen. US consumers (+11%) were also robust with S.E. Asians also growing (+5%).

(JPM) European Quant Strat.

Momentum stocks potential inclusions: ARM Holdings, GEA Group, Husqvarna, Securitas, Kone, Pargesa, Lonza Group, Valeo, Deutsche Telekom, Schindler Holding and Hermes Intl.

Momentum stocks potential exclusions: Pandora, Compass Group, Paddy Power, Intertek Group, DSV, Eiffage, Orange, KPN, Relx Plc, William Demant and Vinci.

>>> US Close Dow+0.32% S&P+0.28% Nasdaq+0.56% Russell+0.98%


Closing Market Summary: Indices Notch Highs as Oil Rallies

The stock market began the week on a higher note as the Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.3%), and the S&P 500 (+0.3%) each carved out new all-time closing highs. The benchmark index traversed a narrow seven-point trading range as a rally in crude oil buoyed the broader market. Today's trade also featured weakening in the dollar and the outperformance of the heavily-weighted technology (+0.5%), financial (+0.6%), and industrial (+0.6%) sectors.

U.S. equities began the day on a higher note, shrugging off negative economic data at home and from overseas. Japan's second-quarter GDP disappointed with growth coming in flat quarter-over-quarter (expected: 0.2%). However, the response was fairly muted as participants mulled recent fiscal stimulus measures and looked forward to potential action from the Bank of Japan. Central bank policy remained in focus as investors ruminated over a disappointing reading of the U.S. Empire Manufacturing Survey for August (-4.2; consensus 4.0). Investors added the disappointing reading to the recent string of soft data, which might keep policy rate normalization on hold.

The broader market advanced through the afternoon, trading higher alongside crude oil. The energy component benefited from speculation regarding potential price stabilization measures from OPEC and non-OPEC members. Reports indicated that Russia is holding discussions regarding such measures with producers inside and outside of the oil cartel. WTI crude ended its day higher by 2.9% ($45.73/bbl; +$1.27), extending its month-to-date advance to 10.0%.

The S&P 500 (+0.3%) settled off its high after the benchmark index failed to clear technical resistance near the 2191/2193 price level. Despite the minor pullback, seven sectors ended in the green with commodity-sensitive energy (+0.6%) and materials (+1.0%) outperforming. The remaining advancers ended with gains between 0.1% (health care) and 0.6% (industrials). Conversely, defensively-oriented consumer staples (-0.2%), telecom services (-0.3%), and utilities (-1.6%) ended with the only losses.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.6%) finished ahead of the broader market as airlines outperformed in the index. United Continental (UAL 48.01, +0.91) and American Airlines (AAL 35.87, +0.95) ended higher by 1.9% and 2.7%. Meanwhile, the broader U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS 22.51, +0.27) trimmed its monthly loss to 0.1%. In the broader industrial sector (+0.6%), Dow component Boeing (BA 134.66, +1.59) outperformed, gaining 1.2%.

The economically-sensitive financial sector (+0.6%) displayed relative strength as the group moved higher with rising Treasury yields. Treasuries ended the day near their lows as yields rose through the curve. The yield on the benchmark 10-yr note settled higher by four basis points at 1.56%. In the group, investment brokerages and life insurance names displayed relative strength as Morgan Stanley (MS 29.66, +0.49) finished higher by 1.7%.

In the technology sector (+0.7%), top-weighted Apple (AAPL 109.51, +1.33) outperformed, bolstering the broader sector. The stock has rallied 13.3% since beating bottom-line estimates for the quarter on June 26. Twitter (TWTR 20.86, +1.32) jumped 6.8% on reports indicating that the company is in talks to have its app supported by Apple TV. On the flipside, Salesforce.com (CRM 78.92, -2.71) slipped 3.3% after announcing that it would postpone its earnings call until August 31 (from August 29).

The U.S. Dollar Index (95.60, -0.12) finished off its low as the greenback held losses against the euro and commodity currencies. The single currency gained 0.2% against the buck (1.1186) while the dollar/Canadian dollar pair ended lower by 0.3% (1.2918). Separately, the dollar was unchanged against the safe-haven yen (101.23).

Today's participation was below the recent average as fewer than 723 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Today's economic data included the Empire Manufacturing Survey for August and the NAHB Housing Market Index for August: 

  • The Empire Manufacturing Survey for August registered in at -4.21, which was below the prior month's reading of 0.55. The consensus estimate was pegged at 4.0.
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for August came in at 60 from a revised 58 in July (from 59) while the consensus expected the reading to come in at 59.0.

Tomorrow's economic data will include July CPI (consensus 0.0%), July Housing Starts (consensus 1,167k), and July Building Permits (consensus 1,153k), which will each be released at 8:30 ET. The July Industrial Production Report (consensus 0.3%) and July Capacity Utilization (consensus 75.7%) will both cross the wires at 9:15 Asian Mid-session Market Update: Markets shrug off disappointing data; Japan Q2 prelim GDP was flat q/q; Sharp becomes a Foxconn unit 

>>> Soros Fund Management (George Soros) discloses updated portfoli


Soros Fund Management (George Soros) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing:

Highlights from 2016 Q2 filing as compared to 2016 Q1 filing:
  • New positions in: BAC (~0.4 mln shares), AMAT (~0.4 mln), ATVI (~0.4 mln), SIGM (~0.7 mln), XXIA (~0.7 mln), CSAL (~0.7 mln), SUPV (~1.4 mln), VIPS (~0.3 mln), ROVI (~4.1 mln), LBRDK (~8.9 mln)
  • Increased positions in: CBPO (to ~0.2 mln shares from ~0.1 mln shares), LILA (to ~0.1 mln from ~0 mln), SYNA (to ~0.2 mln from ~0 mln), DISH (to ~0.7 mln from ~0.5 mln), MODN (to ~2.1 mln from ~1.5 mln) ALLT (to ~1.4 mln from ~0.1 mln), EXAR (to ~2.8 mln from ~1.4 mln), QTM (to ~12.7 mln from ~1.7 mln),
  • Decreased positions in: ABX (to ~1.1 mln shares from ~19.4 mln shares), VIAV (to ~0.4 mln from ~10 mln), EBAY (to ~1.7 mln from ~3.7 mln), CZR (to ~3.3 mln from ~5 mln), QLGC (to ~0.4 mln from ~1.5 mln), ZTS (to ~1.3 mln from ~2.3 mln), MXL (to ~0.2 mln from ~0.9 mln), AAL (to ~0.3 mln from ~0.9 mln), PYPL (to ~0.8 mln from ~1.4 mln), JD (to ~0.8 mln from ~1.3 mln)
  • Closed positions in: LILA.K (from ~0.6 mln shares), SFS (from ~0.6 mln), OGE (from ~0.6 mln), ODP (from ~0.6 mln), RICE (from ~0.7 mln), RACE (from ~0.9 mln), TMUS (from ~0.5 mln), MZOR (from ~0.5 mln), RAD (from ~0.5 mln), IBN (from ~1.4 mln)

>>> What to look at today - 13th & 14th of August 2016

Weekly Update
Dow +0.18% S&P +0.05% Nasdaq +0.23% Russell -0.12% Brazil +1.11% Nikkei +4.09% Hang Seng +2.80% CSI +2.78% Shanghai +2.49% Erostoxx+2.40% FTSE+1.80% CAC+2.03% Dax +3.34% Ibex+2.07% MIB +2.23% SMI +1.23%
The DJIA and the S&P500 both notched fresh all-time highs this week and the Nasdaq came very close to record levels as markets kept melting up in the August heat. Crude prices saw their second week of gains off the late July low, providing an assist to higher US equity valuations, while the dollar is gradually softening. Trading volumes were about 20% below average. In the US, decent retail sector earnings were seen, with the quarterly earnings season coming to a close. Economic data was less than stellar, with the July retail sales report flat after three months of solid gains. Both the July PPI report and the import prices data showed inflation losing steam again. The focus in both Japan and China was on the possibility of fresh central bank action to help prop up growth, while in the UK, the Bank of England had trouble finding enough bonds to purchase under its restarted QE program. For the week, the DJIA gained 0.2%, the S&P500 edged up less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq added 0.2%.

Macro :

Keep an eye on :
- EZJ LN : takeover chatter about a PE interested
- PNL NA : Bpost no longer in talks with PostNL
- RTN LN : New CEO could led a business through a takeover - Telegraph
- RTN LN : The Restaurant Group strategy review to recommend sale of 40 restaurants - The Times

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Market Update: Markets shrug off disappointing data; Japan Q2 prelim GDP was flat q/q; Sharp becomes a Foxconn unit

***Economic Data***
- (JP) JAPAN Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.0% V 0.2%E; ANNUALIZED GDP Q/Q: 0.2% V 0.7%E
- (UK) UK AUG RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES M/M: -1.2% V -0.9% PRIOR; Y/Y: 4.1% V 4.5% PRIOR
- (TH) THAILAND Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.8% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 3.5% V 3.3%E
- (JP) JAPAN JUN FINAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 2.3% V +1.9% PRELIM; Y/Y: -1.5% V -1.9% PRELIM
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JUNE PERFORMANCE OF SERVICES INDEX: 54.2 V 56.4 PRIOR (20-month low)

***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 flat, S&P/ASX 0.2%, Kospi closed, Shanghai Composite 2.3%, Hang Seng 0.7%, Sep S&P500 1% at 2,183

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Dec gold 0.1% at $1344,/oz, Sep crude oil 0.8% at $44.84/brl, Sep copper 0.4% at $2.14/lb
- (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.6430 V 6.6543 PRIOR
- (CN) PBOC to inject CNY130B in 7-day reverse repos
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$400M in 4.5% 2033 Bonds; avg yield: 2.2528%; bid-to-cover: 1.82x

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Asian equities opened slightly to the downside with weaker macro data out of the US and Europe Friday. Markets saw a slight recovery heading into the mid-day break, Brent crude rose on comments from Saudi Arabia's energy minister that the country would work with other oil producers to stabilize oil prices.

- Markets seem to shrug off weaker Japan GDP data. Notably corporate CAPEX was -0.4%, exports were down 1.5% and public investment was +2.3% v -0.7% final Q1 reading. USD/JPY remained in a ~35 pip range 101.48/101.13. Japan Fin Min Aso noted that personal consumption was not strong and the government and BoJ continue to work together to fight deflation. He also noted that there are some good affects coming from negative rates.

- Shanghai and Hong Kong were positive after China CSRC announced Friday it had established a team to get ready for the launch of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Hong Kong official said they are technically prepared for the connect, which is expected to take place this year and officially be announced this week.

- Late in Friday session China reported July, new yuan loans (2-yr low), aggregate financing (2-yr low) and M2 money supply (15-month low) data all showing significantly slower growth. PBoC Researcher Chief Ma: The slowing growth in M2 money supply has not affected the economy. China also issued a 99-page statement in response to IMF's report, largely disagreeing with its outlook on China.

- NZD/JPY fell to a 1-week low at 72.61 and a 5-day low against the USD at 0.7165, NZD/JPY support seen against 69.00 and NZD/USD support at 0.69. ANZ warned that New Zealand may face deflation for the first time in 17-yrs, seeing Q3 y/y at -0.1%, this would be the first decline since Q3 1999.

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- PPS: Mid-America Apartment Communities expected to announce deal to acquire Post Properties in a stock deal valued at ~$4.0B - financial press

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: JB Hi-Fi JBH.AU +8.3% (FY16 result); Ansell ANN.AU+15.4% (FY16 result); Dentsu Inc 4324.JP +6.3% (H1 result); Wynn Macau 1128.HK -4.8% (Wynn Palace approved to commence operations); Citizen Holdings Co 7762.JP -7.7% (Q1 result); Laox Co 8202.JP -4.4% (cuts guidance)
- Financials: Shenzhen Investment 604.HK +2.6% (July result); GPT Group GPT.AU +1.2% (H1 result); National Australia Bank NAB.AU +0.8% (Q3 result); Vanke 000002.CN +10.0%
- Industrials: Aurizon Holdings AZJ.AU -6.5% (FY16 result)
- Technology: Asustek Computer 2357.TW +0.8% (July result); Sharp Corp 6753.JP +10.4% (becomes Foxconn unit); Mabuchi Motors 6592.JP +4.6% (H1 result); Toshiba Corporation 6502.JP +7.4% (Q1 result); TCL Multimedia Technology Holdings 1070.HK -4.7% (H1 result)
- Materials: CGN Mining Co 1164.HK +8.6% (profit alert); Newcrest Mining NCM.AU -4.4% (FY16 result); China Hongqiao Group 1378.HK +3.7% (FY16 result)
- Energy: Tonengeneral Sekiyu 5012.JP -4.8% (H1 result)