(ZH) Soros Hack Reveals Plot Behind Europe's Refugee Crisis; Media Manipulation;

Soros Hack Reveals Plot Behind Europe's Refugee Crisis; Media Manipulation; Cash For "Social Justice"

In the two days since the Soros Open Society Foundation hack by the DCLeaks collective, several notable revelations have emerged among the data dump of over 2,500 documents exposing the internal strategy of the organization, which expose some of Soros' tactics to influence and benefit from Europe's refugee crisis, the opportunistic funding and influence of media organizations, providing cash for assorted "pro-democracy" groups including the infamous La Raza, Soros' funding of various "social justice" organizations while paying to track unfavorable media coverage including that of Pamela Geller.
One particular leaked memo, profiled earlier by the Daily Caller, argues that Europe’s refugee crisis should be accepted as a “new normal,” and that the refugee crisis means “new opportunities” for Soros’ organization to influence immigration policies on a global scale. OSF program officer Anna Crowley and program specialist Katin Rosin co-authored the May 12 memo, titled “Migration Governance and Enforcement Portfolio Review.”
The nine-page review makes three key points: OSF has been successful at influencing global immigration policy; Europe’s refugee crisis presents “new opportunities” for the organization to influence global immigration policy; and the refugee crisis is the “new normal.”
As the authors write in the introduction, one of the purposes of the review “consider the effectiveness of the approaches we have used to achieve change at the international level.” A section of the review titled “Our Work” describes how America’s least transparent think tank has worked with “leaders in the field” to “shape migration policymaking and influence regional and global processes affecting the way migration is governed and enforced.”
This may be of particular interest to Germans, the majority of whom are displeased with Merkel's "open door" policies in the aftermath of the recent terrorist attacks on German soil.

In a section titled, “Our Ambitions,” the authors explain: “Our premise for engaging in work related to governance was that, in addition to mitigating the negative effects of enforcement, we should also be supporting actors in the field proactively seeking to change the policies, rules, and regulations that govern migration.”
They write that “we also believed that advances at the regional or international levels could create impetus for policy change or implementation of existing norms at the national level. We deliberately avoided the term ‘global governance’ because there is no single system at the global level for managing migration.”
The same section later states that IMI “has had to be selective and opportunistic, particularly at the global level, in supporting leaders in the field to push thinking on migration and better coordinate advocacy and reform efforts. We have supported initiatives, organizations, and networks whose work ties directly to our aims in the corridors.”
“Early on, IMI identified a handful of organizations able to engage on migration globally and transnationally, elevating IMI’s corridor work beyond the national level,” reads another section of the memo, entitled “Our Place.”
“These included key think tanks such as the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) and advocacy networks such as the International Detention Coalition (IDC).” (The authors later note that MPI, a strong advocate of amnesty for illegal immigrants in America, “is sometimes criticized for its closeness to governments, [but] flexible funding from OSF has allowed it to maintain some independence from the governments it advises.”)
The memo also notes that “IMI played a central role in establishing and influencing the goals of two new [European Programme for Integration and Migration] sub-funds on the Common European Asylum System (CEAS) and immigration detention.
More importantly, the memo explains how Europe’s refugee crisis is opening doors for Soros’ organization to further influence global immigration policy.
The authors note that “the current refugee crisis is creating space to reconsider the governance of migration and the international refugee regime.” One reason for this is that the developing countries that make up the Group of 77 at the United Nations were motivated by the refugee crisis to keep immigration issues on the “global agenda,” the memo states. “The refugee crisis and the fear that the interests of migrants fleeing poverty, climate change, generalized violence, or natural disaster would be overlooked at these fora have generated a push from G77 countries to ensure other migration issues remain on the global agenda.”
They also explain that the current crisis provides “new opportunities” for influencing immigration policy on a global scale.


“The current climate presents new opportunities for reforming migration governance at the global level, whether through the existing multi-lateral system, or by bringing together a range of actors to think more innovatively. Our long-standing interest and investment in global work means we have many of the right partners and are positioned to help others navigate this space.”
The review states, “The refugee crisis is opening new opportunities” for “coordination and collaboration” with other wealthy donors.
It is almost as if Europe's refugee crisis was planned and prepared, not just by the Soros organization, but others who would benefit from a shift in the change of regional "migration governance", i.e., the reimposition of sovereignty terms, as Greece found out the hard way several months ago when its sovereignty was relegated to the country's willingness to participate in Europe's refugee scheme.
It will hardly come as a surprise that according to the review, immigration policy-makers need to accept the refugee crisis as a “new normal.” One of the conclusions listed in the memo is, “Accepting the current crisis as the new normal and moving beyond the need to react.”


“Observing our partners as they respond and adjust to the new reality in light of the crisis in Europe and the Mediterranean, we see little attention given to long-term planning or fundamentally new approaches to advocacy.”
The conclusion also stresses the need to fight back against “growing intolerance toward migrants." It is unclear just how Soros plans on "fighting back."
* * *
Needless to say, in order to promote its European refugee agenda, the Soros organization needs close European allies. Conveniently, it has a memo prepared just for that titled "Reliable allies in the European Parliament (2014 – 2019)" in which it notes the importance of building "lasting and trustworthy" relationships with European MEPs "likely to support Open Society's work."


This mapping provides the Open Society European Policy Institute and the Open Society network intelligence on Members of the 8th European Parliament likely to support Open Society values during the 2014–2019 legislature.

It spans 11 committees and 26 delegations, as well as the European Parliament’s highest decisionmaking bodies: 226 MEPs who are proven or likely Open Society allies.

The presence of an MEP in this mapping indicates that they are likely to support Open Society’s work. They should be approached with an open mind: although they will most likely want to work on areas they’re already interested in, they could also welcome hearing about new issues.

Beyond discussing individual topics, Open Society should seek to build lasting and trustworthy relationships with these European lawmakers.
Much more in the full 177 page memo.
* * *
Aside from Europe's refugee crisis, the data leak provides other important glimpses in Soros' influence of global affairs.
One memo, which is an overview of the "Ukraine Media Project" exposes how Soros influences media coverage of events in Ukraine, something previously touched upon in a June 2015 post titled "Hacked Emails Expose George Soros As Ukraine Puppet-Master."
In the memo which reveals how Soros hopes to "cover" events in Ukraine, the authors admit that "this isn’t proper independent journalism and we may damage our credibility with journalists" and admit that "journalists may produce stories that have no relevance for the narrative we seek to inform or stories that are counterproductive (enforcing narratives of fascism etc.)"


Investigative Journalism:Select journalists from the 5 target countries (Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Greece) and

offer them long stay reporting trips in Ukraine. Rather than specify what they should write about they should make suggestions for articles; we retain a veto on stories we think are counterproductive. Suggestion that we liaise directly with journalists to determine interest.

Pros:

Similar approach to what we have done for other press trips
Opportunity to build relationships with journalists and news outlets
Opportunity to diversify reporting on Ukraine into longer form content examining non-breaking news angles

Cons:

Credibility: the “veto” approach means this isn’t proper independent journalism and we may damage our credibility with journalists
Control: Journalists may produce stories that have no relevance for the narrative we seek to inform or stories that are counterproductive (enforcing narratives of fascism etc.)
Interference: however nuanced this is packaged, we may enforce the narrative of GS/OSF manipulation
Placement: publication of the articles is not guaranteed and presents a significant barrier to success
* * *
We then turn our attention to the US, where we we find a memo that "provides a brief overview of state/local funding by U.S. Programs in the last three years."


Throughout its 15-year history, U.S. Programs has complemented its national work with state and local grantmaking. The Emma Lazarus Fund, the Southern Initiative, the Program on Reproductive Health and Rights, and the Youth Initiative all had a strong presence in states like Louisiana, North Carolina, Texas, New York, and California. In this way, U.S. Programs has not only advanced core priority issues at the national level, but it has also worked to enable local and state actors to play a more critical role in shaping discussions around criminal justice, drug policy, immigrants’ rights, government security, and other key issues at the state level.
The memo indirectly hints at Soros funding for BLM:


To provide support to the Baltimore Education Research Consortium, including for the creation of an executive director position/$196,000/OSI-Baltimore/2009
To support the American Journalism Review's series of articles on the crisis in American journalism with a focus on, among other things, coverage of federal agencies and state governments, including Maryland /$200,000/Strategic Opportunities Fund/2009
Furthermore, here is confirmation of Soros' funding and support for Social Justice organizations, taken from a memo revealing the "Democracy and Power Fund", which explains its desire for building "state-based power"


Advance social justice in critical states through state-based issue advocacy and organizing where the opportunities to advance (or the threats to) open society are particularly significant.
It is almost surprising how cheap control over SWJ causes is.
* * *
Another memo provides further details on the funding of an additional five organizations, including the infamous La Raza.
* * *
Among the leaks we also find a document on the Center for American Progress, or CAP, whose purpose is "To support the Examining Anti-Muslim Bigotry Project." We are confident various conservative organization will be curious about this because as part of its activities the CAP is expected to "research and track the activities of the most prominent drivers of Islamophobia" including Pamela Geller, Frank Gaffney, David Howoritz, Robert Spencer, Cliff May, Liz Cheney and so forth:


1. Outreach to Subject Experts

CAP’s first step will be to interview and engage in the Project the journalists, researchers, academics, and leaders in the anti-hate movement who are researching and writing on Islamophobia, and to develop a roster of knowledgeable and credible experts to whom journalists and policymakers can turn for information. As part of this process, CAP will reach out to Media Matters for America, FAIR, the Muslim Public Affairs Council, the American Muslim Civic Leadership Institute, Muslim Advocates, the Interfaith Center of New York, the Southern Poverty Law Center, and the cohort of emerging Muslim leaders in CAP’s Young Muslim American Voices Project that is run by CAP’s Faith and Progressive Policy Institute.

2. Audit of Islamophobic Activities and Strategy Convening

CAP will research and track the activities of the most prominent drivers of Islamophobia, including Stop Islamization of America, led by Pamela Geller; the Center for Security Policy, led by Frank Gaffney; David Horowitz’s Freedom Center, which sponsors Robert Spencer’s Jihad Watch; the Middle East Forum, led by Daniel Pipes; the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, led by Cliff May; and Keep America Safe, led by Liz Cheney. In addition, CAP will examine the role played by right-wing media, the Tea Party movement, prominent politicians, pundits, and conservative donors in spreading anti-Muslim hysteria. This research will form the basis of a CAP audit of Islamophobic activities that will inform a strategy convening of around two dozen researchers and advocates, including representatives of progressive organizations and the AMEMSA community. Participants will be asked to formulate strategies for combating anti-Muslim bigotry. The convening is planned for the first quarter of 2011.
We continue to dig through the filings for further ties, financial or otherwise, between Soros and the various branches of the US government as well as the 4th estate.

(ZH) Bank Of Japan Buying Sends Nikkei 225 To Richest Since Dot-Com Crash

Bank Of Japan Buying Sends Nikkei 225 To Richest Since Dot-Com Crash

Having noted the farcical share ownership of The Bank of Japan (biggest shareholder in 55 companies) as Kuroda's ETF-buying goes to '11', we thought it interesting that the distortion caused by these "pick a winner" purchases has sent Japan's Nikkei 225 to its richest relative to Japan's Topix index in 17 years.
As Bloomberg notes, Japan’s two major equity benchmarks have moved mostly together over the years. That changed this month following the latest meeting by the Bank of Japan, which boosted its purchases of exchange-traded funds as part of its easing program.
The BOJ’s heavier allocation to ETFs tracking the Nikkei 225 has helped push the gauge to its highest level versus the Topix index in 18 years.


Which - as we noted previously - leaves one big question... just how will the BOJ ever unwind its unprecedented holdings of not only bonds, which are now roughly 100% of Japan's GDP, but also of stocks, without crashing both the bond and the stock market. And then we remember, that the BOJ will simply never unwind any of its "emergency" opertions just because nobody actually thought that far, plus the whole point of the exercise is hyperinflation or bust, as the sheer lunacy of Japan's authorities is exposed for the entire world to see, leading to the terminal collapse of faith in the local currency. With every passing day, we get that much closer to said terminal moment.
"probably nothing"

(ZH) The Bank of Japan Will Be The Top Shareholder Of 55 Companies By The End Of

The Bank of Japan Will Be The Top Shareholder Of 55 Companies By The End Of 2017 (14/08/2016)


In the aftermath of the BOJ's announcement that it would almost double its ETF purchases to ¥6 trillion, or $58 billion, up from the current ¥3.3 trillion, we put this number in context. Over the next year, BoJ is scheduled to purchase ¥6t ($58b) in ETFs, and $116b over the next two years. By June of 2018, BoJ is likely to hold ¥20.5t ($200b) in ETFs.
Three ways to put BoJ's purchases in perspective:
  • The US market cap is 5x Japan’s, so this new stimulus can be viewed as equivalent of the Fed purchasing $580b in ETFs over the next two years, and the Fed holding $1t in ETFs. Of course, this is just a hypothetical exercise as the Fed is prohibited from purchasing equities. But the new stimulus illustrates that BoJ is concerned with the severity of bearishness in Japan's equity market, and that such drastic purchases are necessary to reverse the bearishness.
  • In Oct 2014, Government Pension Investment Fund announced a new asset allocation of its ¥127t assets. Among other changes, its domestic equity allocation increased from 17% to 25%, or an increase of +¥10t. So BoJ's ETF purchases over the next two years and GPIF's equity purchases may be in the same ballpark.
  • So far this year, foreign investors have sold almost ¥5t in net of Japanese equities. That's smaller than BoJ's annual purchase rate of ¥6t.
While dramatic, some additional facts courtesy of Bloomberg should convey just how truly unprecedented the move truly is: with the BOJ already a top-five owner of 81 companies in Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average, the BOJ is on course to become the No. 1 shareholder in 55 of those firms by the end of next year, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg from the central bank’s exchange-traded fund holdings.
Just as insane, the central bank owned about 60% of Japan’s domestic ETFs at the end of June. This is up from just over half as of a few months ago suggesting that the BOJ is gobbling up equities at an unprecedented pace.

At this point the usual debate begins: is central bank intervention good (of course, the bulls say) or bad (everyone else grudgingly admits). While bulls have cheered the tailwind from BOJ purchases, opponents say the central bank is artificially inflating equity valuations and undercutting efforts to make public companies more efficient. Traders worry that the monetary authority’s outsized presence will make some shares harder to buy and sell, a phenomenon that led to convulsions in Japan’s government bond market this year.
“Only in Japan does the central bank show its face in the stock market this much,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, a Tokyo-based senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co., which oversees about 12 trillion yen ($118 billion). “Investors are asking whether this is really right.”
Investors may ask, but the BOJ doesn't care, as it has now become the single, most dominant force in the equity market, and would rather traders thanked it, and be on their way, than worry about the "long-term." As for the BOJ "showing its face in the stock market this much", both the SNB and the ECB are now just as actively involved in the equity market, as reported previously.
As Bloomberg adds, while the BOJ doesn’t buy individual shares directly, it’s the ultimate owner of stakes purchased through ETFs. Estimates of the central bank’s underlying holdings can be gleaned from the BOJ’s public records, regulatory filings by companies and ETF managers, and statistics from the Investment Trusts Association of Japan. Forecasts of the BOJ’s future shareholder rankings assume that other major investors keep their positions stable and that policy makers maintain the historical composition of their purchases.
Meanwhile, Kuroda's insane buying spree means that the central bank’s influence on Japanese stocks already rivals that of the biggest traders, locally called “whales”. It’s the No. 1 shareholder in piano maker Yamaha Corp., Bloomberg estimates show, after its ownership stake via ETFs climbed to about 5.9 percent.
The BOJ is set to become the top holder of about five other Nikkei 225 companies by year-end, after boosting its annual ETF buying target to 6 trillion yen last month. By 2017, the central bank will rank No. 1 in about a quarter of the index’s members, including Olympus Corp., the world’s biggest maker of endoscopes; Fanuc Corp., the largest producer of industrial robots; and Advantest Corp., one of the top manufacturers of semiconductor-testing devices.
The list below shows the top BOJ holdings as of this moment.
The Japanese central bank finds nothing out of the ordinary with becoming the top holder of dozens of stocks, and instead falls back to its cliche of an explanation:


A central bank spokesman, who asked not to be named citing BOJ policy, said the ETF purchases will help officials reach their 2 percent inflation target as soon as possible. Consumer prices fell 0.4 percent in June from a year earlier, the fourth straight month of declines.
It may get even more insane: Kuroda has argued that ETF purchases will help spur economic activity and inflation by boosting risk appetite in Japan. After the BOJ’s last meeting on July 29, he said the central bank has room to increase buying if needed.
As noted above, the bulls love it. For Takashi Aoki, a fund manager at Mizuho Asset Management, the ETF program’s downsides aren’t substantial enough to justify removing it from the BOJ’s toolkit. “The goal is to get Japanese companies making money again, and to reach 2 percent inflation,” said Aoki, whose firm oversees about $50 billion. “The scope of the BOJ’s buying is what’s needed to reach that target. It’s effective.”
Actually, if Takashi has seen a chart of Japan's core CPI, he will note that monetizing stocks has been anything but effective, but who actually bothers with facts these days.
The good news is that, at least for now, the liquidity of the stock market has not collapsed (unlike what has happened in the JGB market where the BOJ is virtually running out of willing sellers). So far, there’s little evidence that the BOJ’s purchases are disrupting the smooth functioning of Japan’s stock market, according to Keiichi Ito, the chief quantitative analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. But that could change as the buying increases, Ito said, particularly for stocks with low free float, or shares available for trading.
Take the example of Fast Retailing, whose free float is about 25% of shares outstanding. The BOJ owns about half the company’s free float now, a proportion that will rise to 63 percent by year-end, according to Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest brokerage. BOJ purchases could soak up the remaining free float at companies including Comsys Holdings Corp. and Tokyo Electron Ltd. over the next year, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “It’s going to become hard to trade,” Ito said. “Stocks that have a low free-float ratio will become very volatile.”
However, just because liquidity is here today, does not mean it will be there tomorrow. “If the BOJ does not sell stocks, then liquidity will disappear,” Murakami said. “As liquidity falls, the number of shares you can buy starts to decline -- the same thing that’s happening in the JGB market.”
While some raise the question of governance, or just how will the BOJ intervene as a top shareholder in determining the future of so many public companies...


While there’s no sign that the central bank will use its stock holdings to influence how Japan’s public companies are managed, some investors worry that BOJ purchases could give a free ride to poorly-run firms and crowd out shareholders who would otherwise push for better corporate governance. The BOJ isn’t explicitly subject to Japan’s stewardship code for institutional investors, designed to encourage stockholders to push companies for better performance.
... a far more obvious question is ignored: just how will the BOJ ever unwind its unprecedented holdings of not only bonds, which are now roughly 100% of Japan's GDP, but also of stocks, without crashing both the bond and the stock market. And then we remember, that the BOJ will simply never unwind any of its "emergency" opertions just because nobody actually thought that far, plus the whole point of the exercise is hyperinflation or bust, as the sheer lunacy of Japan's authorities is exposed for the entire world to see, leading to the terminal collapse of faith in the local currency. With every passing day, we get that much closer to said terminal moment.

WSJ : Glencore Investors to Glasenberg: Don’t Buy Anything Yet

Glencore Investors to Glasenberg: Don’t Buy Anything Yet
Shareholders are hoping to hear more about cost savings than new spending

LONDON—A year of debt cuts, asset sales and rising commodity prices have pulled Glencore PLC back from the brink of crisis. Now, the mining and trading giant’s shareholders have a new concern: That Chief Executive Ivan Glasenberg might return to his free-spending ways.

Mr. Glasenberg spent much of the last decade as the commodities industry’s biggest deal maker, snapping up coal, copper and gold mines in places such as East Africa, South America and Australia. After a mounting debt pile and sagging commodities prices sent Glencore shares tumbling last year—the price fell 29% on a single day, Sept. 28—investors pressured a chastened Mr. Glasenberg to slash borrowing and unload unprofitable mines. He suspended the company’s dividend, laid off workers to cut costs, and trimmed the company’s debt load to more sustainable levels, investors say.

With shares up about 180% since the free fall, Baar, Switzerland-based Glencore recently emerged as a contender in bidding for several big properties, including Australian coal assets that Rio Tinto PLC and Anglo American PLC were looking to sell, say people familiar with the sales talks.

Investors say Mr. Glasenberg has work to do before he can responsibly start buying, and are hoping to hear more about cost savings than new spending when the company reports earnings on Aug. 24.

“First, we have to finish the deleveraging, then we have to restore the dividend,” said David Herro, a fund manager for Harris Associates LP who controls about 6% of Glencore’s stock, worth about $2 billion.


Mr. Herro snapped up billions of dollars’ worth of Glencore’s stock last autumn as it cratered, and said Glencore should consider whether stock buybacks make more sense than deals.

A spokesman for Glencore declined to comment.

Mr. Glasenberg transformed Glencore from a trading house into one of the world’s biggest miners, with deals like the $29.5 billion acquisition of coal miner Xstrata in 2013. But his big bets fell flat over the past two years, when commodities prices crashed. Coal, despite a rebound this year, remains under pressure due in part to world-wide attempts to curb global warming by reducing carbon emissions from coal-burning power plants.

Glencore lost $5 billion in 2015, and its stock remains over 60% below its 2011 offering price.

There is little question Glencore’s situation has improved from a year ago, when Mr. Glasenberg was fending off investor fears that his mining and trading house was a debt-bloated powder keg on the verge of exploding.

At the end of 2015, Glencore’s net debt—which doesn’t include billions of dollars of borrowing that fuels its trading business—had dipped to $25.9 billion from $29.6 billion midyear. Glencore says it plans to reduce the debt load to $17 billion-$18 billion by the end of 2016.

“Management is doing exactly what they should be doing,” said Mr. Herro.

Last week, Glencore reported lower copper, coal and zinc output in the second quarter, compared with a year earlier, due largely to voluntary mine closures.

Glasenberg & Co. have already raised $2.5 billion in a share offering and $1.4 billion in a pair of “streaming” deals, which give Glencore upfront cash in exchange for gold or silver down the road. The dividend suspension has saved about $2.4 billion in cash. In the second half of the year, Glencore says it expects to book about $3.13 billion from the sale of nearly half of its agricultural business and another $100 million from the sale of a Kazak gold deposit.

Glencore is also exploring the sale of another Kazakh gold mine that could fetch $2 billion and Australian rail assets that could raise another $750 million or more, analysts say.

Charl Malan, a portfolio manager for Van Eck Global, which holds roughly $200 million worth of Glencore stock, said the company should continue cutting debt and return cash to shareholders before looking for new investments. He said Glencore should restore the dividend by sometime next year, depending on commodity prices.

“Management is not going to be driven by, ‘I want more coal, I want more copper,’ ” he said. “Management will be driven by what is best for shareholders.”

One risk is that commodity prices could fall. Some analysts say a round of Chinese stimulus this year has fueled prices, and they could dip once that stimulus ends.

Other investors harbor concerns about the long-term value of coal, in which Glencore says it plans to invest more. Hermès Investment Management partner Bruce Duguid said his clients who have invested in Glencore worry the company hasn’t adequately calculated the risks of policies intended to curb global warming.

Glencore said it expects demand for thermal coal—which is used to produce power—to increase for decades, especially in Southeast Asia.

“We’re wary of the idea that you can predict the world with great confidence, given the commodity crash that just happened was based on the misunderstanding of demand,” Mr. Duguid said.

>>> Cobham - Names David Lockwood as CEO; effective Jan 1st, 2017

Cobham - Names David Lockwood as CEO; effective Jan 1st, 2017

David is currently CEO of Laird PLC, the FTSE 250 technology company providing products and solutions that protect electronics from electromagnetic interference and heat and which enable connectivity in mission-critical wireless applications. During his time at Laird, David has built the company into a focused enterprise connectivity company with leading positions in the connected transport and consumer device markets, delivering sustained organic growth. 

Before taking his current role four years ago, David was formerly Vice President Global Defence & Security at BT Global Services. He has experience of international defence operations, gained from his roles at GPT (Marconi), BAE Systems and Thales Corporation. He chaired the Scottish Government's Technology Advisory Group and, in 2005, was the recipient of the Scottish Entrepreneur of the Year Award for Technology. In February 2014, David was appointed as Non-Executive Chairman of Knowledge Transfer Network Ltd. 

David has a BA (Hons) in Mathematics from the University of York and is a Chartered Accountant by profession.

(UBS) Ahold Delhaize - Upside looks tough to find – reiterate Neutral

Reiterate Neutral with any synergy upside offset by longer-term margin risk
We reiterate our Neutral rating despite a positive view on the merger itself, given our view of limited
further upside to synergy expectations and a cautious view on the group EBIT margin longer term.
However, we also see little downside with underlying near-term margins stable and a strong FCF yield
of 6.6% in our 2017 forecasts. We update our model today post the completion of the merger
between Ahold and Delhaize to reflect the combined businesses and the cost synergy expectations of
€500m by 2019E.
We think the merger should create value but further upside looks limited…
Overall we have a positive view on the merger between Ahold and Delhaize with announced costsaving
synergies of €500m helping to expand the group EBIT margin from 4.0% in 2016E to 4.6% by
2019E. However, we believe the combined group may see limited upside to the current synergy
expectations given the lack of brand integration and the scale of the two businesses. Together they
employ around 370,000 people in a low-margin industry where operating standards can be difficult to
maintain.
…and the margins in the US and Holland look at risk longer term
We think the longer-term margin outlook for US grocery retailers is beginning to look more pressured.
Wal-Mart has begun large-scale price investments and the discount formats continue to be a growing
concern. The Netherlands' EBIT margin also looks under pressure with margin compression from 7% in
2007 to 4.0% in 2015 given increasing promotional activity. However, cost cutting does offer some
stabilisation and we forecast synergies helping a recovery to 5.2% by 2019E.
Valuation: We value Ahold Delhaize on 11.5x EV/EBIT 2017E, in line with sector
We value the group on a SOTP basis with a DCF as a sense check to give us further confidence in the
11.5x EV/EBIT multiple we place on the group overall. This is in line with the European Food Retail
sector on 11.6x. Our base case applies a 11.5x EV/EBIT multiple to both the US businesses and 11% to
the Netherlands which we see as slightly more at risk of margin erosion vs competitors. We apply
12.0x to Belgium and the SSE and Asia business of Delhaize with a stronger margin outlook in these
regions.

(UBS) Global Mining Strategy - Gold vs. Gold Equities – Fickle or Fundamental

Global Mining Strategy - Gold vs. Gold Equities – Fickle or Fundamental

* And the gold medal goes to…gold
With gold having potentially entered a new bull-run, we believe the underlying metal provides more
upside than the equities at this point. While gold is currently one of the top performing assets this year,
its 26% YTD gain pales in comparison to the +110% average lift across the senior producers. With gold
tracking changes to global real interest rates we will be watching factors that could affect real rates
including i) monetary policy, ii) yields, iii) oil prices, and iv) inflation prints. Weak physical demand
remains a concern and will be tracked along with scrap flows and producer hedging.
* Further allocations to gold could see additional gains
We think the gold market has entered a new bull-run, and we expect the next leg to be driven by a
continuation of strategic portfolio allocation into gold from a diverse set of investors. In our view, gold
remains under-owned and a prolonged period of depressed real yields and elevated macro uncertainty is
likely to see broader participation in the gold market. However, while maintaining a constructive view on
the underlying we think that the equities have already priced in our 2017 gold price upside scenario.
* What's priced into the equities ?
Across our coverage universe, the current share prices are implying an average gold price of $1489/oz
(5% discount rate), an 11% premium to the spot price and a 6.5% premium to our $1400/oz forecast
for 2017. At a 10% DR, the implied price jumps to $1656/oz, or a 23% premium. For the larger, more
liquid names, these implied prices are $1528/oz and $1757/oz respectively – premiums over spot of 14%
and 31%.
* What is the best way to play the gold thematic ?
At this juncture, we would prefer to be long gold underlying as opposed to the equities as we view this
as a cleaner expression of the macro view and reflective of the share price performances over the last 6-
months. However, despite this broadly negative view of gold equities, there does appear to be small
pockets of value. Objectively using equity analyst recommendations and implied gold prices, our
preferred equities are Acacia, Alacer, Barrick, Evolution and Perseus. Based on the same methodology,
our least preferred equities are Fresnillo, Hochschild, Newcrest, Randgold and Regis.

(JPM) European Property : Four key technologies set to change property

Four key technologies set to change property

We examine four areas of technological advancement and their potential impact on retail, offices, student accommodation and logistics. For retail, we see driverless cars unlocking the car parks of super regional shopping centres, for mixed use expansion. Offices could see fewer jobs as machine learning and AI automates even complex tasks, but those remaining jobs will require a very different office product. Longer term, students could be increasingly less reliant on campus location, due to MOOCs and distributed learning. Finally, distributed manufacturing and last mile distribution will likely continue to disrupt logistics and high street retailing. Overall, we believe technology will result in increasing rates of obsolescence, increasing landlord/tenant interaction and more active management.

* Machine Learning and AI reduce OFFICE JOBS, but space per worker increases: 
Up to 35% of all jobs in the UK are at high risk of being automated within 20 years, according to Deloitte. This could create a drag of 143,000-287,000 sq ft pa in take up. The remaining workers are more likely to be in creative roles and demand a more flexible office environment. Shorter lease lengths, more communal and break out areas, a focus on wellbeing and digital connectivity are all core requirements for the offices of the future. Buildings must be more modular, providing ‘shell and core’ style spaces that tenants will fit out themselves to meet their needs. We expect value divergence between these buildings and more traditional spaces to emerge, implying ‘younger’ portfolios should outperform.

* Driverless cars could end “the tax on land” around regional SHOPPING CENTRES: 
There are approximately 4 cars for every 5 licensed drivers in the UK, and the average car in the UK spends about 96% of the time parked. As Google’s Sergey Brin points out, “It’s a huge tax on the land”. British Land’s Meadowhall has 12,000 free car parks, which we estimate cover 1.5m sq ft. Driverless cars would free up this land for new development, which could ‘drive’ c£185m of development profit.

* In the long term, distributed education would reduce on-campus demand for STUDENT ACCOMMODATION: 
Although we see no immediate impact, education is thus far a holdout industry from technological change. Driven by expense, student debt burdens, competition and changing role of universities, we see ‘distributed education’ emerging as a disruptive trend in demand for on-campus education, potentially reducing the demand for ‘year long’ student accommodation.

* Drones, distributed manufacturing, digital consumption will likely continue to disrupt LOGISTIC AND RETAIL models: Build to order vs build to stock would drive retail patterns, with mass produced but individually tailored products and services increasingly on demand and requiring distributed manufacturing and advanced logistics platforms. This
could see a resurgence in the high street.

>>> What to look at today - 17th of August 2016

Dow -0.45% S&P -0.55% Nasdaq -0.66% Russell -0.86%
US Market closed lower on a quiet day. rate-hike expectations inched higher following remarks from New York Fed President William Dudley (an FOMC voter) and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart (non-FOMC voter). Mr. Dudley stated that a rate hike remains on the table at the FOMC's September meeting while adding that he thinks the fed funds futures market appears too complacent with regard to future hikes and that current high valuations in the Treasury market are concerning. Separately, Mr. Lockhart said he was unable to rule out at least one rate hike before the end of the year. The implied probability of an interest rate hike at the September meeting increased to 18.0% from 9.0% in the prior session. The implied probability of an interest rate hike at the December meeting rose to 54.2% from yesterday's implied probability of 41.9%. Nine sectors settled with losses. The defensively-oriented telecom services (-2.0%) and utilities (-1.2%) were the biggest laggards while the remaining decliners showed losses between 0.3% (financials) and 0.9% (health care). The commodity-sensitive energy sector (+0.2%) finished above its flat line, responding in kind to a 1.8% increase in crude oil futures ($46.57/bbl, +$0.84). Volume were below average at 730mil shares. US After Hours URBN +12% following earnings/guidance, MEET +4% rebounding on reaffirmed guidance.... CREE -8%, PLKI -2%, VNET -1% on earnings/guidance. Asian markets traded mixed for another day. Oil traded higher on the hopes the production caps would be implemented; this gave some strength to Japanese names Inpex and automakers like Toyota. USD/JPY traded slightly higher after Japan MoF Official Asakawa warned that Japan would respond to fx market if there are excessive moves. Overnight saw the pair test ¥99.55, level not seen since June during the Brexit vote. China Premier Li formally approved the Hong Kong, Shenzhen connect after the close of trade in yesterday's session. He also removed certain restrictions on how much foreign investors can invest into the stock market. Daily inflows to remain capped at CNY13B/day. The less than enthusiastic response in the markets is being attributed to the year plus long wait and the speculation in the last weeks that the deal was imminent. It is being taken as a signal that China is still taking reforms to the financial sector seriously.

Nikkei +1.05% Hang Seng +0.34% CSI +0.01% Shanghai +0.02%

Eur$ 1.1270 CNH 6.6337 CNY 6.6294 JPY 100.93 GBP 1.3051 CHF 0.9627 RUB$ 63.9890 WTI$ 46.42 (-0.34%)

S&P +0.17% EUroStoxx -0.03% Dax -0.15% SMI -0.17%

Macro :
- Hedge Fund Tudor Said to Cut 15% of Workforce After Withdrawals
- Fed’s Lockhart Says He Won’t Rule Out 1 Rate Hike by End of Year
- Credit Suisse Joins War for Quants, Hiring Rothman to Build Team
- U.K. Company Dividends at Risk as BOE Action Swells Pension Hole

Keep an eye on :
- ABN NA : ABN Amro Says 2Q Net Profit Impacted by Derivatives Provision
- ADM LN : Admiral 1H Pretax Rises, Interim Div. Raised
- ADP FP : ADP Says Traffic Rose 1.4% in July After Air France Strike
- ASML NA : ASML Falls 2.7%; Intel Says It Won’t Use EUV for 10nm Production
- BBY LN : Balfour Beatty Says Little Sign of Brexit Impact as Yet
- EN FP : Bouygues Telecom Renegotiaties 35-Hour Week, Le Figaro Says
- CARLB DC : Carlsberg 1H Organic Profit Growth Higher Than Sees in 2H
- COB LN : Cobham CEO Bob Murphy to Step Down; Laird’s Lockwood Hired
- DL NA : Delta Lloyd Swings to 1H Net Profit, Gross Written Premiums Dip
- HIK LN : Hikma Starts Selling Levoleucovorin for Injection in U.S.
- HSBA LN : HSBC Bought Back 2.67m Shares at Avg 543.46 Pence Each Aug. 16
- LXS GY : Lanxess Gains on Chemicals M&A, Ahead of Roadshow
- LIN GY : Praxair Deal May Face ‘Significant’ Regulatory Hurdle: Seaport
- MBTN SW : Meyer Burger 1H Net Loss CHF25.6m vs Loss of CHF93m
- RWE GY : RWE Reaches Wage Agreement With Verdi Union, WAZ Reports
- LNSX GY : Sixt Leasing 2Q Pretax Rises 27%, Confirms 2016 Outlook
- SCHP VX : Schindler CEO Sees Light at End of Tunnel for China: Luzerner
- SSE LN : SSE CEO Says Alternatives Exist to Hinkley Project
- TSLA SS : Tesla Undertaking Full Investigation of French Car Fire Case
- WIEN GY : Wienerberger 2Q Ebitda Slightly Below Est.; Sees Neg. FX Impact
- WDI GY : Wirecard Confirms Ebitda Forecast for 2016