(Liberation.fr) Selon la télévision russe, la 3e Guerre mondiale a déjà commencé

Selon la télévision russe, la 3e Guerre mondiale a déjà commencé

A en croire les médias russes, il faut se préparer à l'imminence d'un nouveau conflit international, après la rupture le 3 octobre des négociations entre Washington et Moscou sur le conflit syrien.

La Troisième Guerre mondiale n’aura probablement pas lieu mais pour quiconque allume son téléviseur en Russie, elle a déjà commencé. Sur la première chaîne d’Etat, c’est le présentateur de l’émission phare du dimanche soir qui annonce que les batteries antiaériennes russes en Syrie vont «abattre» les avions américains. Sur la chaîne d’informations en continu Rossia 24, c’est un reportage sur la préparation des abris antinucléaires à Moscou.

A Saint-Pétersbourg, le site d’informations Fontanka croit savoir que le gouverneur veut rationner le pain pour une future guerre malgré les explications des autorités qui affirment vouloir simplement stabiliser le prix de la farine. Et à la radio, on discute des exercices de «défense civile» mobilisant, selon le ministère des Situations d’urgence, 40 millions de Russes pendant une semaine. Au programme : évacuations d’immeubles et exercices d’incendie.

Pour celui qui aurait éteint son téléviseur pour se promener dans les rues de Moscou, il est fort possible de tomber sur un des immenses graffitis «patriotiques» des artistes pro-Poutine de l’organisation «Set» qui tapissent désormais les immeubles comme cet ours, symbole de la Russie, distribuant des gilets pare-balles à des colombes de la paix.

La cause d’une telle fièvre, de cet emballement pour l’imminence d’une «Troisième guerre mondiale» ? La rupture le 3 octobre des négociations entre Washington et Moscou sur le conflit syrien après l’échec d’un cessez-le-feu que les deux puissances avaient âprement négocié à Genève en septembre. Dans la foulée, les bombes russes et syriennes ont transformé Alep en «enfer sur Terre» selon l’ONU et suscité les critiques des Occidentaux.

Sur le terrain, l’armée russe a continué la semaine à faire cavalier seul en déployant sur sa base navale, dans le port syrien de Tartous, des batteries antiaériennes S-300 aptes à détruire des avions de chasse, mais aussi en envoyant des corvettes équipées de missiles pouvant, en théorie, couler des navires de guerre. Autrement dit, une démonstration de force visant, non pas les jihadistes ou les rebelles syriens, mais bien la Marine et les avions américains.

Une menace à peine voilée contre les Etats-Unis
A Moscou, où les journalistes russes et occidentaux se lèvent et se couchent en recevant les communiqués du ministère russe de la Défense, le climat de confrontation est relayé, amplifié par les médias. Le porte-parole de l’armée russe, le général Igor Konachenkov, adresse ses mises en garde à la Maison Blanche, au Pentagone, au Département d’Etat. «Je rappelle aux "stratèges" américains que les missiles antiaériens S-300 et S-400 qui assurent la couverture aérienne des bases russes de Hmeimim et de Tartous ont un rayon d’action qui pourraient bien surprendre n’importe quel aéronef non identifié», a-t-il dit le 6 octobre en une menace à peine voilée contre les Etats-Unis.

Sur l’antenne de la chaîne d’Etat Rossia 1, le présentateur Dmitri Kissilev, également patron de l’agence de presse Ria Novosti, résume la pensée du général Igor Konachenkov pour «les simples gens comme vous et moi» : «nous abattrons» les avions américains. Puis il dévoile le «plan B» des Etats-Unis en Syrie. «Le plan B, c’est en gros que les Etats-Unis vont avoir un recours direct à la force contre les forces syriennes du président Bachar al-Assad et contre l’aviation russe», dit-il.

«Est-ce qu’il faut craindre des provocations ? C’est comme cela que les Etats-Unis ont engagé la guerre au Vietnam», conclut Dmitri Kissilev avant de mettre en garde les Occidentaux : les missiles déployés à Kaliningrad, l’enclave russe proche de la Pologne pourraient emporter des têtes nucléaires. «La Russie actuelle est plus que prête, mais avant tout psychologiquement, à la nouvelle spirale de confrontation avec l’Ouest», résume Gueorgui Bovt dans une tribune sur le site d’informations Gazeta.ru.

«Si la bagarre ne peut pas être évitée, frapper le premier»
Le politologue envisage deux scénarios, compte tenu par ailleurs des difficultés économiques de la Russie. Le premier, optimiste, où les deux puissances vont «se mettre d’accord sur de nouvelles conditions de coexistence, en gros un Yalta-2», référence au partage des aires d’influence entre les Etats-Unis et l’Union soviétique au lendemain de la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Et le scénario catastrophe : la Russie va réagir selon une loi de la rue bien connue : «si la bagarre ne peut pas être évitée, frapper le premier».

Dans une interview à Ria Novosti, le dernier président soviétique Mikhaïl Gorbatchev et initiateur il y a 30 ans à Reykjavik avec le président américain Ronald Reagan du début de la fin de la Guerre froide, prévenait récemment : le monde flirte «dangereusement avec la zone rouge».

Et mercredi, premier signe de détente après des jours d’invectives verbales, Moscou annonçait une réunion internationale sur la Syrie samedi à Lausanne qui a déjà des allures pour le secrétaire d’Etat américain John Kerry et le ministre russe des Affaires étrangères Sergueï Lavrov de rencontre de la dernière chance.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FLDM -20.6%, ( issues Q3 prelim revenue numbers of ~$22.2 mln vs. $29.3 mln Capital IQ Consensus Est; as a result of its Q3 prelim numbers, co is suspending its full year 2016 guidance), VAC -6.4%, INSY-5.2%, UN -2.7%, DRWI -2.6%, MYCC -1.2%, APU -1%, DAL -0.9%, WGO -0.7%

Select financial related names showing weakness: SAN -3.4%, RBS -3.2%, DB -2.8%, BBVA -2.2%, CS -2.1%, HSBC -1.8%

Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: BBL -4.4%, RIO -4.4%, FCX -4%, BHP -4%, X -3.9%, VALE -3.6%

Other news: APTO -18.4% (receives a response from the FDA regarding the clinical hold of its Phase 1b clinical trial of APTO-253; the hold would not be removed at this time), FLKS -17% (provides a nocturnal leg cramp regulatory and clinical update for FLX-787; Exploratory NLC study 'did not demonstrate a statistically significant difference versus placebo), TGTX -15.2% (files with FDA an amended protocol for the GENUINE Phase 3 trial, FDA agrees that Overall Response Rate data from revised GENUINE study can be used to request pre-BLA meeting ), MELI -6.1% (MercadoLibre commences a 5.5 mln share underwritten public offering of common stock by selling stockholders eBay & certain subsidiaries; MercadoLibre offers prelim Q3 results in conjunction with today's proposed secondary offering, sees revs of $220-290 mln vs $222.13 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate ), VOXX -5.3% (light volume in after hours -- was up nearly 50% today on earnings), HTGM -3.2% (after jumping 35% on broad companion diagnostics master agreement w/ Merck KGaA news), BABA -1.6% (Chairman Jack Ma letter to shareholders)

Analyst comments: MT -2.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), BEAV -2.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), HDP -3.5% (downgraded to Sell from Buy at Goldman), GPRO -3.8% (Piper Jaffray noted co is not selling on Amazon (12-14% of sales) right now but should be back on that channel around Halloween), DECK -5.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LNN +8.2%, ULTA +4.2%, NEPT +3.4%, SAR +3.3%, TSM +1.7%, CSX +0.8%

Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SBGL +3.6%, GFI +2%, HMY +1.7%, AG +1%, GG +1%, ABX +0.6%, GOLD+0.6%, GDX +0.6%, SLW +0.6%

Other news: CTRV +29.5% (reports interim data for CMX157 from its ongoing Phase 2a multiple ascending dose clinical studyg),OCUL +27.6% (Ocular Therapeutix & Regeneron (REGN) enter into a collaboration to develop sustained release formulation of Aflibercept for the treatment of Wet AMD and other serious retinal diseases), CI +2.5% (CIGNA responds to CMS's 2017 Medicare Stars Quality Ratings; no financial impact in 2016 or 2017 because these ratings apply to plans for the 2018 payment year), FCN+2.4% (its Strategic Communications segment has launched a new and enhanced Affiliate Network), ERJ +2.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), STM +1.9% (in sympathy with TSM (earnings)), EBAY +1.2% (MercadoLibre commences a 5.5 mln share underwritten public offering of common stock by selling stockholders eBay & certain subsidiaries; eBay says sale will enable it to realize a significant gain on its investment), AAMC +1% (after 30%+ move higher), WFC +0.9% (Wells Fargo Chairman, CEO John Stumpf retires; Board of Directors elects Tim Sloan CEO, Director; appoints Lead Director Stephen Sanger Chairman)

Analyst comments: ERJ +2.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), VIAB +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill), GRUB +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merril), MRK +0.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), ALK +0.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Buckingham Research)

>>> Marriot Vacations misses by $0.18, misses on revs; narrows FY16 EPS, in-line

--> Watch Accor & Whitbread --> VAC -5.60% pre market

Marriot Vacations misses by $0.18, misses on revs; narrows FY16 EPS, in-line
  • Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.96 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.18 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.14; revenues were unchanged from the year-ago period at $407 mln. Total company vacation ownership contract sales (which exclude residential sales) were $169.8 million, $10.1 million, or 6.3 percent, ahead of the prior year period. Contract sales in our key North America and Asia Pacific segments were $12.5 million, or 8.3 percent, ahead of the prior year period.
  • Co issues in-line guidance for FY16, narrows EPS to $4.55-4.65 from $4.43-4.78, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $4.61 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
  • "We continued to execute our growth strategy in the third quarter. Contract sales in our key North America and Asia Pacific segments were up 8.3 percent in the quarter, an acceleration of the year-over-year growth that began near the end of the second quarter. Our sales growth in the quarter came not only from the continued ramp-up of sales at our new North America and Asia Pacific sales centers, but also from sales improvement at our existing sites," said Stephen P. Weisz, president and chief executive officer. "With the momentum we have seen in our new sales centers during the third quarter and our fourth quarter tour activations well ahead of this time last year, we remain confident in our growth strategy and the solid foundation we are building for continued sales growth going into 2017."

>>> Citi's double downgrade; sell BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto

Citi's double downgrade; sell BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto

 

Citi's double downgrade; sell BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto

Citi's metals and mining  equities research team has called time on BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto. 
Both companies have rallied in recent weeks, fuelled by  rising commodities prices with the likes of coking coal, thermal coal and iron ore enjoying solid runs. 
However, Citi reckons bulk commodity prices should pull back significantly running into the Christmas period and into 2017 "as demand cools and supply responds". 
"2016 has been the year of the bulk commodities with iron ore defying the pundits and being largely flat year on year despite 1Q weakness, and surging 2H coal prices on the back of Chinese supply restrictions more than overcoming lower 1H, particularly for coking coal," the analysts told clients on Thursday morning.


"The key base metals in aluminum and copper have largely been left behind in this turnaround, highlighting how much of the sector performance has concentrated in the bulk commodities and driven by China policy. Precious metals have also performed well in 2016 as Brexit, Geo-political events and central bank's monetary policy has been supportive." 
Citi expects bulk commodities to be weaker into 2017 and 2018, but says the outlook is better for base metals and particularly copper and oil. 
Citi downgraded both BHP and Rio shares to "sell" from"neutral". It shaved $1 off its target price for both stocks, taking its BHP target

(Bernstein) Global Quantitative Strategy: Death of the DCF model?

The problems with DCF models are well known, i.e., that they have alarge proportion of present value reliant on the distant future and the potentially arbitrary nature ofsomeofthe inputsandstructure. Despitethatwethinkthattheyformanessentialpart ofvaluation.
The problem is that they were invented and historically used in aworld where risk freerates averaged 5% or more. In a world where the risk free rate is close to zero then the errors in such models explode.
Specifically, if the overall discount rate (WACC) falls from 10% to 5% in a very simple DCF then the proportion of the net present value accounted for by cash flows more than 5 years in the future rises from 70% to 95%. How far in the future can any analyst forecast? We would suggest that any human'sability to forecast financial variables more than about 5 years in the future is limited at best. At the veryleastsmallerrors at that forecasting horizon become very significant.
To the extent that when a DCF is used in practice as a measure of relative (as opposed to absolute) value, the proportion accounted for by the terminal growth period is notsucha problem as it can cancel out across securities, but there still remains huge model error in the path to that terminal value.
Having said all this, discounting is at the heart of finance. This is a very general statement relating to assets and liabilities and not limited to DCFs. If it is notpossible to put a "price on time" then there is agenuinelyintellectually painfulenvironmentwhere modelstructure is called into question.
Whatshould investors do? We cannot reject discounting and there is nochoice but to use it anyway. Sowe will keep using DCFs. We just have to be aware that a by-product of the low rate world is a scale of forecast error that is outside the bounds ofwhathas been previously seen and it is likely that those forecast errors may swamp any otherdifferences between stocks.
Whatwoulddefinitively break suchamodel? Byconstruction, if theoverall discount rate fell below the growth rate then the NPV becomesundefined, though in a semi-permanent low rate environment presumably expected growth rates fall too. We have already seen European companies issue debt at negative yields and in Japan 10 year rates areset at 0. Any movelower in discount rates would, we suggest, cause a significant methodological problem for financialanalysis.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: NEPT +9%, SBGL +4.5%, SAR +3.3%, HMY +3.1%, AG +3%, CI +2.5%, FCN +2.4%, ERJ +2.2%, AUY +2.2%, GFI+2.2%, HTGM +1.9%, STM +1.8%, TSM +1.7%, GG +1.5%, ABX +1.5%, VOXX +1.3%, WFC +1.3%, NSC +1.3%, EBAY +1.2%,GOLD +1.2%, GDX +1.2%, ERIC +1.1%, ERIC +1.1%, CSX +1.1%, SLW +0.8%, EGO +0.6%

Gapping down: FLDM -20.6%, TGTX -17.3%, DECK -7.2%, MELI -6.2%, FCX -4%, BBL -3.9%, DDD -3.8%, RIO -3.7%, VALE-3.6%, BHP -3.6%, GPRO -3.5%, X -3.4%, SAN -3.4%, RBS -3%, DB -2.6%, DRWI -2.6%, MT -2.4%, SSYS -2.3%, CS -2.3%,UN -2.3%, BEAV -2.1%, BBVA -2.1%, HSBC -1.6%, STO -1.5%, RDS.A -1.4%, MYCC -1.2%, AAMC -1%, AAMC -1%, APU -1%,DAL -0.7%

Re/Code.net : A new generation of 5G will change everything from platforms to se



From: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO) At: 10/12/16 23:08:03
Subject: Re/Code.net : A new generation of 5G will change everything from platforms to se
A new generation of 5G will change everything from platforms to self-driving cars
The high-speed wireless network will be a critical component in the federal government’s agenda to develop the next level of U.S. innovation.

This week, President Obama will arrive in Pittsburgh to convene the first-ever White House Frontiers Conference. The conference will bring together innovators from across the country to focus on how science and technology is shaping the 21st century, and particularly the role of innovation in building smarter and more inclusive communities. It will be an important discussion, and a timely one, as we are on the cusp of a key technological revolution that will change everyone’s lives in ways we can only dimly envision today.

Back in the 19th and 20th centuries, the railroad, the telegraph and the telephone vastly expanded the scope of commerce and transformed our conceptions of time and space. Now, the next generation of mobile networks holds a similar promise.

In each case, the infrastructure created by these earlier innovations became platforms on which others could build new enterprises and reach new markets. Built on clear standards and protocols (e.g., the gauge of railroad tracks, Morse Code, dial tone and phone numbers), they provided powerful capabilities that could be used by others for their own value-added purposes.

Those who built and operated these platforms did well, but they enabled many others to flourish, as well. As John Hagel from the Deloitte Center for the Edge has noted, successful platforms create rich ecosystems of resources that benefit all participants.

Platforms have emerged as one of the most significant models for internet-based businesses at the heart of our modern digital economy. Apple’s iTunes transformed the way music is distributed, while its App Store is responsible for creating an entire “app economy” that sustains tens of thousands of app developers. Facebook provided a framework that is being used by more than a billion people to share their lives with others and that has become a powerful channel for everything from news to advertising and commerce. Amazon not only sells merchandise directly but has also provided a platform that connects many other sellers to customers.

The growth of wireless broadband networks greatly amplified the reach and impact of platforms like these. The smartphone has become the primary means by which people stay connected, get information and conduct business in their everyday lives. There are currently some three billion smartphones in use globally today, and the number is projected to reach six billion — 70 percent of the world’s population — by 2020. Because these devices are used on the go, people depend on the simplicity, consistency and reliability that established digital platforms can provide.

And now wireless networks are on the brink of becoming exponentially faster, more pervasive and more versatile. The arrival of next-generation 5G-based networks in the next few years will provide what has been described as a uniquely powerful “platform for platforms” and is notably the foundation for the personal, local and national frontiers of innovation the Obama administration seeks to advance.

Offering “perceived infinite capacity,” 5G will provide the basis for the emergence of ubiquitous new wireless platforms that, in turn, will support the creation of an array of new services and businesses.

For example, the speed and responsiveness of 5G networks will be critical for supporting fleets of self-driving vehicles that will depend on getting instantaneous guidance “from the cloud.” The Internet of Things, which will put billions of devices online, will also make use of 5G’s capabilities, as will a rich new world of augmented reality (of which Pokémon Go provides a simple but compelling preview).

Beyond these much-heralded uses, we are likely to see the development of platforms to support everything from wireless payments and remote medical monitoring to the on-demand delivery of education and government services.

And while we may be able to discern the broad contours of this emerging hyper-connected world, it is a safe bet that it will also provide surprises that are the product of imaginative entrepreneurs who know how to leverage the power of platforms.

To realize this 5G future, policymakers at all levels of government and the private sector will need to address unprecedented challenges — some known, some not — that come with laying the technical foundation of this new technology. It will take real work and close cooperation, but the potential value of 5G to society and the economy is too great to delay.