>>> Barron's Week-End Update

Barrons weekend update: positive on UHAL 

* Cover story: The growing combination of semiconductors and miniature engines stands to transform tasks as basic as charging a smartphone or cooking an egg, or as complex as scanning for colon cancer or powering flying drones on long journeys; Companies that stand to benefit from the trend include AMAT, WATT, IDTI, and NXPI. 

* Features: 1) Positive on UHAL: Company's chief executive pays no attention to Wall Street, doesn't manage earnings, rarely meets with investors, and gets paid modestly, part of a thrifty corporate culture that has helped U-Haul dominate the industry; 2) Picks from the Barron's Art of Successful Investing conference participants include CCL, SHPG, CLS, LIOX (Scott Black); MSFT, GOOGL, PIC, V (William Priest); SNE, HRI, HRS, MSG (Mario Gabelli); NOMD, EVTC, COMM, ANIP (Oscar Schafer); WHR, LNC, MSCC, GT (Andrew Wellington); and WFC (Jerome Dodson); 3) Cautious on TWX: Shares are up on a possible T merger, but while not overpriced they don't have much upside, and could slide if the deal falls through or is priced below what investors expect.

* Trader: The "Dogs of the Dow" strategy-in which investors put equal dollar amounts in the 10 highest-yielding Dow stocks at year-end and hold them for 12 months-has returned an average of 10.6% annually over the past 10 years; Positive on AGN: The market's concerns about the maker of Botox are more related to industry issues than company problems, and shares could have 20-30% upside over the next year or two. 

* Profile: Scott DiMaggio and Doug Peebles, co-managers of AB Global Bond fund, use fundamental and quantitative analysis teams to form distinct views, after which investment decisions are made.

* Small Caps: Positive on Lanxess: German chemical company's acquisition of Philadelphia-based CHMT will make it a less-cyclical and higher-margin company, and shares currently look cheap.

* Follow-Up: Positive on CAT: New chief Jim Umpleby, a company veteran, will probably cut costs as he tries to get the company back on track, and investors should hold shares until next year to see if he sparks a rebound.

* European Trader: Positive on Danone: The company's new focus on sustainable, profitable growth could translate into double-digit earnings growth in 2017 through 2019. 

* Asian Trader: A study from MS found that investors in Asia are increasingly looking for companies that score high on socially and environmentally responsible metrics, such as Astra International, SM Investments, City Development, and Unilever Indonesia. 

* Emerging Markets: Investors should expect more bond issues from Saudi Arabia, where a war with Yemen is putting pressure on a budget that is already supporting major economic reforms.

* Commodities: Gold, which rose by 29% during the first seven months of 2016, making it one of the year's best performers, is losing its glitter amid concerns about a Fed interest rate hike. 

* Streetwise: Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg says the ability to borrow money at lower interest rates has added five percentage points annually to profit growth, though that doesn't mean the S&P 500 is destined to lose nearly 20% of its value with a rate hike.

Barron's : Turnaround at Danone Could Boost Stock 25%

Turnaround at Danone Could Boost Stock 25%
A shift toward profitable, sustained growth and its acquisition of WhiteWave Foods could drive double-digit profit gains through 2019.

A new culture could pay off at dairy-foods giant Danone. The French company’s focus on sustainable, profitable growth marks a significant shift from its prior policy of top-line growth at any price. It could translate into double-digit earnings growth in 2017 through 2019.
As an example of its new approach, Danone (ticker: BN.France), which claims a 26% share of the global market for fresh dairy products, in July strengthened its position in the U.S. with the $10.4 billion acquisition of organic dairy and food producer WhiteWave Foods (WWAV). The deal, which may close by the end of the year, could be immediately accretive to earnings.
Even without WhiteWave, Danone shares look like a good value. At Friday’s close of 63.47 euros, they trade for 18.9 times next year’s estimated earnings. That seems expensive compared with the Stoxx Europe 600 index average of 15 times, but it is better value when compared with consumer-goods peers at 21.6 times.

At the sector multiple, Danone could be worth more than €73 a share, or about 15% more than its latest price. However, its superior growth prospects mean the shares could rise 25% or more, to €80, in the next 12 months. The shares yield 2.5%.
Danone, which has a market value of about €41.6 billion ($45.2 billion), also has American depositary receipts that trade in New York under the symbol DANOY. They were trading on Friday at $13.90. Five ADRs are equivalent to one ordinary share.
In the past two years, the Paris-listed shares are up 27%, outperforming a 6% rise in the Stoxx Europe 600.
That said, the company has been plagued by execution issues. In 2007, it overpaid for baby-food and health-care nutrition company Numico. Two years later, it carried out a rights issue (issuing new shares to raise capital) that was hugely dilutive. And, six months after that, Danone started to buy back shares.
That isn’t all. The company endured a collapse of growth in its fresh dairy business in Europe after it was forced to remove inaccurate health claims from products like Activia and Actimel. In China, it suffered a damaging health scare involving its powdered-milk formula for infants, which ultimately was unjustified but has had a lasting impact. These problems, combined with inflation in milk prices, contributed to the erosion of profit margins. Operating margin tumbled from 15.3% in 2009 to 12.6% in 2014.
Little wonder investors remain wary. In a research note, Bernstein analyst Andrew Wood cites an unnamed investor as saying, “We have all made the mistake of owning Danone once…the skill is to avoid making the same mistake twice.”
Emmanuel Faber, an insider who was promoted to CEO in 2014, has stirred things up. He has introduced a more disciplined approach to capital and investment, and a focus on the bottom line.
“IT IS A REALLY BIG DEAL for Danone,” says Liberum analyst Robert Waldschmidt, who rates the stock at Buy with a target price of €80, or 26% above the current quote.
Danone’s new perspective suggests that the purchase of WhiteWave could be a good deal for Danone, whose products in the U.S. include Stonyfield yogurts, Evian bottled water, and Neocate infant formula. It bulks up Danone’s presence in the U.S., which accounted for 11% of the €22.41 billion in group sales last year. The company currently earns about 54% of sales from emerging markets, but the integration of WhiteWave will take that figure below 50%.
Importantly, WhiteWave, which operates in fast-growing categories like organic plant-based food and beverages with brands like Silk dairy alternatives, could boost earnings by 10% in 2017 and 3% in 2018, according to Bernstein analysts. Consensus estimates currently don’t appear to include the WhiteWave deal.
Regardless, Danone’s prospects appear to be improving. Milk prices are easing, and its loss of market share in fresh dairy in Europe is subsiding. It is relaunching Activia and Actimel with lifestyle-related messages, and could see flat growth in Europe in 2016, an improvement on the past few years.
The company could hit its target like-for-like sales growth of 3% to 5% this year, and group margin could hit 13.9%, up from 12.9% last year.
In 2016, Danone is forecast to earn net income of €1.87 billion, or €3.07 a share, rising to €2.07 billion, or €3.39 a share, next year.
Some analysts worry about the impact of the WhiteWave acquisition on Danone’s balance sheet, but it should be able to absorb the cost without too much pain. Its ratio of net debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization will rise to 3.5 times next year before falling back to three in 2018 and 2.5 in 2019. After the Numico deal in 2007, it ballooned to 4.5.
Danone could turn out to be a healthy alternative for investors.

Reuters - Piech, Porsche families say united behind VW management: Spiegel

Piech, Porsche families say united behind VW management: Spiegel

The Piech and Porsche families that control more than 52 percent of Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) have vowed to back senior management, setting aside past disputes as the carmaker struggles to overcome an emissions scandal, Der Spiegel reported on Saturday.
In a rare interview, Hans Michel Piech and Wolfgang Porsche pledged support for VW chairman Hans Dieter Poetsch and chief executive Matthias Mueller, and said they would stay out of daily operational affairs at Germany's biggest carmaker.
The two families had clashed when Ferdinand Piech was his family's representative on Volkswagen's supervisory board, a post he resigned from last year, clearing the way for his brother, Hans Michel.
Some investors feared bickering between the two families would hamper decision-making as the company works to cut costs and adapt to new industry trends such as electronic and autonomous driving.
"We are different and we see our task as representatives of the families different," Hans Michel Piech was quoted as saying, but he and Wolfgang Porsche both emphasized their ability to find consensus.
Porsche said that would remain the case despite a recent decision to increase the number of family members with voting power to 34.
"Not all 34 will become supervisory board members, or have a say in discussions, and not all of them want to. What is important is that the next generation of suitable family members have an interest in the matter and do not simply wait for the dividend to arrive," he said.
Volkswagen has suffered its worst-ever crisis since admitting in September 2015 it used sophisticated secret software in its cars to cheat exhaust emissions tests, with millions of vehicles worldwide affected.
The company has set aside 17.8 billion euros (15.83 billion pounds)to pay for costs related to the scandal.

FT : Spinal Tap star turns it up to 11 in fight for royalties (Vivendi)

Spinal Tap star turns it up to 11 in fight for royalties
The artist’s law suit comes at a time of deepening suspicion of platform owners

There can only be one winner in the case of the actor Harry Shearer v Vivendi, the French media group, over royalties from the 1984 film, This is Spinal Tap. And it’s bad news, I’m afraid, for the French.

Mr Shearer, who plays pipe-smoking bassist Derek Smalls in the spoof rock documentary, alleges he earned $81 over 22 years on merchandising income and $98 between 1989 and 2006 for his contributions to This is Spinal Tap’s soundtrack, the rights to which are owned by Vivendi.
These sums seem, as noted by the film’s director Rob Reiner, “impossible” given its enduring popularity. They suggest the very worst of “Hollywood accounting” — that baffling process by which profits from successful movies somehow vanish long before they reach the accounts of their creators.
Mr Shearer is no starving artist. He can afford a legal fight, having made millions voicing 23 characters in The Simpsons. He wants $125m in damages. If I were Vincent Bolloré, Vivendi’s chairman and its major shareholder, I would be advising my lawyers to settle.
Mr Bolloré has the thick hide of a man who has found fortune in everything from west African trade to paper manufacturing to advertising. But never has he taken on a man loved by millions for playing the part of a demented rock star (one so desperate to advertise his virility that at airport security he is found to have a cucumber wrapped in tinfoil stuffed down his trousers).
Vivendi may have perfectly good legal reasons why This is Spinal Tap has yielded desultory returns for one of its stars. But it is absurd on the face of it that a film so influential, adored and quoted can have paid out so little. The court documents allege that the original production agreement called for Mr Shearer, Mr Reiner and co-stars Michael McKean and Christopher Guest to receive 40 per cent of net receipts.

Mr Shearer must feel like David St Hubbins, Spinal Tap’s lead singer, whose bandmate Nigel Tufnel designs a giant replica of Stonehenge to descend on stage, only to mislabel his sketch. The resulting monument is 18in high instead of 18ft. As St Hubbins complains, this tends to “understate the hugeness of the object”.
The original producer of This is Spinal Tap was the long-forgotten Embassy Pictures. Over time, Embassy’s catalogue of films was resold again and again until it reached Vivendi. In the process, Mr Shearer alleges in the court documents, This is Spinal Tap was bundled in with lossmaking flops for accounting purposes. This process of “cross-collaterisation” led to a dramatic understating of the hugeness of the film’s profits.
This process continued as the rights to the film were sold repeatedly as part of larger transactions before ending up with Vivendi. Mr Shearer claims that the accounting was fraudulent enough to justify the compensatory and punitive damages he is demanding.
The stories of suits roughing up talent in the music industry are legion. Colonel Tom Parker turned Elvis Presley from a dashing young GI into a Las Vegas freak show, but made millions along the way. The Rolling Stones spent years trying to get out of their contracts with former manager Allen Klein. A few months before he died, Prince compared record contracts to “slavery” and advised young artists against signing them.
Announcing his lawsuit, Mr Shearer said: “I think it’s important to challenge the status quo, not just for myself but for all my fellow artists, musicians and creators. After all, they depend for their livelihoods on a fair return for their hard work.” His suit will probably ripple beyond the world of music and film: it comes at a time of deepening suspicion of digital services and platform owners.
The EU and Google are locked in a fight over what can and cannot be uploaded to YouTube. The EU is asking for greater respect for copyright, while Google is standing by what it calls the “principles of linking, sharing and creativity on which the web’s success is built”. Facebook argues for similar principles as it ramps up its own video service. But, as you use either service, it’s hard to avoid a sense they consider content a source of advertising dollars and copyright something to be ignored until absolutely necessary.
Beyond content and copyright, new platforms in everything from apps to taxis to food delivery are provoking tussles over splitting the spoils. The platform owners are developing the kind of monopoly power once wielded by Hollywood studios and television networks — a lock on both the suppliers and consumers of their service.
When Mr Shearer talks about ensuring a “fair return for their hard work” he could be talking as easily about the gig economy workers who find their terms of work unexpectedly rewritten as about musicians feeding on scraps from their labels. They, too, are getting the Derek Smalls treatment.
A trial would be circus enough. But perhaps Mr Shearer could reunite Spinal Tap for a concert outside Vivendi’s chic headquarters on the Avenue de Friedland in Paris. A sea of seething spandex looping around the Arc de
Triomphe would do wonders to focus corporate minds.

Re/code.net : Friday’s huge internet outage, explained

Friday’s huge internet outage, explained
Security expert Brian Krebs says the Internet of Things is to blame.

For hours yesterday, a slew of major websites — including Reddit, Twitter and Amazon, not to mention multiple Vox Media sites — were inaccessible to much of the United States and parts of Europe.
You may have already heard that this was the result of a massive “denial of service” attack, a well-established practice where attackers flood a target with so much fake traffic that real people can’t get in. But what’s unusual here is that Friday’s attackers were not focused on those specific sites, but rather on Dyn, an organization that helps other companies reroute their web traffic.
And adding to the weirdness: Your home security camera might have been partially responsible.
Security expert Brian Krebs has an excellent detailed breakdown of the outage on his website, but here’s the short version: That fake traffic has to come from somewhere.

According to several security firms, the attackers were using a type of malware that enlists insecure Internet of Things devices — reportedly, cameras and DVRs with components from the Chinese firm XiongMai — to do their bidding. Those devices, Krebs writes, could be turned into a zombie army even if their users had supposedly set a custom password to protect them:
That’s because while many of these devices allow users to change the default usernames and passwords on a Web-based administration panel that ships with the products, those machines can still be reached via more obscure, less user-friendly communications services called “Telnet” and “SSH.”
Telnet and SSH are command-line, text-based interfaces that are typically accessed via a command prompt (e.g., in Microsoft Windows, a user could click Start, and in the search box type “cmd.exe” to launch a command prompt, and then type “telnet” to reach a username and password prompt at the target host).
Krebs concludes that these insecure devices won’t be fixed unless a global recall to prevent them from connecting to the Internet. And this warning comes as the cost of stuffing web connectivity into all sorts of devices is getting cheaper by the day.

In other words, unless XiongMai (and anyone else whose components may be at fault here) steps up, this could very well happen again.

Reuters - Egyptian investor, bondholders mull bid for Brazil's Oi -sources

Egyptian investor, bondholders mull bid for Brazil's Oi -sources


Oct 21 Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris and some creditors of Oi SA are considering pouring up to $1.5 billion into the debt-laden Brazilian telecoms carrier, whose in-court reorganization has failed to gain traction amid rows between bondholders and shareholders, two people with knowledge of the matter said.
Under the terms of the plan, which remains preliminary, the equity injection into Oi would aim to cut its 65.4 billion reais ($21 billion) in debt and give Sawiris and his partners a stake of about 85 percent, said the sources. Partners include about 70 bond firms that are advised by Moelis & Co .
The purpose of the Sawiris-bondholder plan is to wrest control from Oi's current shareholders, including Portugal's Pharol SGPS SA and investment firm FIA Société Mondiale, and prepare a potential sale of the company within three years, said one source.
Moelis said on Oct. 11 that joining forces with Sawiris would allow bondholders and the Egyptian tycoon to "discuss and evaluate an alternative recovery plan for Oi" during and after it emerges from bankruptcy.
Oi filed for bankruptcy protection in a commercial court in Rio de Janeiro in June.
Two other sources familiar with the strategy of Oi's two main shareholders said Sawiris and his camp have not yet approached them, adding that the bidding amount under consideration is too low.
Both sources said the success of the Sawiris-led bid hinges on convincing the government that their proposal would ease friction between creditors, shareholders and suppliers and maintain high-quality service.
All of the sources declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.
Messages to the media office of Sawiris' investment firm, Orascom TMT SAE, were not answered.
A representative for Moelis in Brazil declined to comment, as did Pharol and Société Mondiale, controlled by Brazilian distressed-debt investor Nelson Tanure.
The byproduct of a government-sponsored merger at the end of last decade, Oi succumbed to a heavy debt burden, onerous government-mandated investments in money-losing activities and shareholder problems.
The government has expressed concern over the reorganization, saying it would intervene if creditors and stakeholders failed to reach a "market solution" for the company, or if a suitor seeks to break the company into parts.
A series of disputes between Pharol, FIA Société and creditors, and protracted negotiations have delayed discussions about a recovery plan, which was presented on Sept. 5 to creditors. The Moelis-led group of bondholders deemed Oi's September recovery proposal "unacceptable."
Sawiris had been linked with a potential takeover of Oi last year and in June, days before Oi filed for bankruptcy protection.

>>> Unipol may take stake in BMPS – report (translated)

Unipol may take stake in BMPS – report (translated)

Unipol, the listed Italian financial services group, could take a stake in BMPS, the listed Italian bank, Italian language daily Il Sole 24 Ore reported. The report cited financial sources who said that Unipol could take part in the data room for BMPS' recapitalisation after BMPS presents its new business plan on 24 October.
Unipol would have to find the business plan credible in order to participate in the recapitalisation. The report said that one of the underlying motives for taking a stake in BMPS would be for Unipol to merge Unipol Banca, its lending arm, with BMPS.
A report in Italian language daily Il Corriere della Sera claimed that the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) is also looking at the dossier.
An unsourced report in Italian language daily Il Messaggero said that the business plan is likely to have targets of ROE of 10-11% and a profit of EUR 1bn by 2019.
The report also claimed that the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) has hired Morgan Stanley to advise it on taking part in BMPS' recapitalisation while the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) has hired Rothschild.
Chinese investors are also interested in the recapitalisation and are believed to have hired an international investment bank on the matter, the report said.
All the reports noted that a number of private equity firms backing an alternative recapitalisation by Italian banker Corrado Passera are also likely to take part in the due diligence process. The report said that among the private equity firms believed to be taking part are Warburg Pincus, General Atlantic, Atlas Capital and BC Partners
Il Sole article sourced from print copy: page 25
Il Messaggero article sourced from print copy: page 21
Il Corriere della Sera article sourced from print copy page 40

WSJ : AT&T Reaches Deal to Buy Time Warner for More Than $80 Billion

AT&T Reaches Deal to Buy Time Warner for More Than $80 Billion
Agreement for between $105-$110 a share could be officially announced as soon as Saturday evening

AT&T Inc. has reached an agreement to buy Time Warner Inc. for between $105 and $110 a share, with a deal likely to be announced as soon as Saturday evening, according to people familiar with the plans.
The boards of the two companies are meeting on Saturday to approve the transaction, the people said. The deal is half cash and half stock, according to one of the people.

The acquisition is valued at more than $80 billion and pushes the carrier deeper into the traditional entertainment business at a time of stalled wireless growth. For Time Warner, the deal represents a victory for Chief ExecutiveJeff Bewkes, 64, who took some heat from investors for rebuffing a takeover bid two years ago from 21st Century Fox at $85 a share. (21st Century Fox and Wall Street Journal-ownerNews Corp share common ownership.)

The pairing brings together AT&T’s millions of wireless and pay-television subscribers with Time Warner’s deep media lineup including networks such as CNN, TNT, the prized HBO channel and Warner Bros. film and TV studio.
A merger of the companies would be the most ambitious marriage of content and distribution in the media and telecom industries since Comcast Corp.’s purchase of NBCUniversal and would create a behemoth to rival that cable giant. A rigorous regulatory review is expected and the acquisition of Time Warner likely wouldn’t close until late 2017, people close to the process said.
Regulators have indicated misgivings about the prior Comcast-NBCU deal—in particular, whether obligations placed on Comcast were tough enough and enforceable—so it is unclear if they will be willing to bless another such merger. At the very least, former regulatory officials say there could be significant conditions placed on the combination.
The transaction would be far and away the biggest media deal of recent years. Time Warner had a market capitalization of $68 billion before The Wall Street Journal reportedon the advanced talks Friday, while AT&T’s was $233 billion.
On Friday, Time Warner shares closed at $89.48, up 8%.
AT&T has been shifting its sights to media and video in recent years, diving deeper into television after its nearly $50 billion deal to acquire satellite television provider DirecTV last year. That made AT&T, which traces its roots to the old ‘Ma Bell, the country’s biggest pay television provider as well as its second-largest wireless operator.
Time Warner “is the last scaled content play that’s acquirable,” said Michael Nathanson, an analyst at MoffettNathanson, noting that the rest of the major media companies are either so valuable they would be difficult to acquire, like Walt Disney Co., or family controlled, like 21st Century Fox, CBS and Viacom. “HBO, Turner and Warner Bros. are really good assets for a future of nonlinear consumption.”

>>> Weekly Market Update: ECB Punts; Earnings Reports Mixed

Weekly Market Update: ECB Punts; Earnings Reports Mixed

With Q3 earnings releases ratcheting up and a plethora of M&A stories hitting the tape, investors poured over a steady flow of corporate news throughout the week. Banks and financial companies continued to report generally strong quarterly results, highlighted by Bank of America and American Express. Generally, managements struck a cautiously-optimistic tone on their conference calls pointing to a December rate hike as a likely catalyst. Major industrial names were much more subdued in their commentary as sluggish global growth and a resurgent US dollar remain impediments. General Electric and Illinois Tool Works saw share price declines as investors were underwhelmed with their guidance. Early season technology reports painted a divergent picture for several industry bellwethers. Netflix, PayPal, and Microsoft surged on growth prospects for the cloud and digital media consumption, while old line names like IBM and Intel continued to see their share prices lag behind. Finally, by Friday talk of major industry consolidation was rampant as reports circulated that AT&T was closing in on a deal to acquire Time Warner. The news came amidst a flurry of M&A announcements and speculation across a variety of industries including consumer staples, retail, pharmaceuticals, and of course technology.

The US dollar spent the better part of the week pushing to multi-month highs. The Euro touched its lowest level since March after the ECB left rates and QE unchanged, and kicked the decision on extending QE down the road to the December meeting. The British Pound continues to be hounded by Brexit implementation concerns: Cable remained under pressure, ending the week around 1.22. The Chinese Yuan has stayed near 6-year lows following a week economic data that suggested not much has changed for the trajectory of the world's second largest economy. US economic data was generally in line to slightly better than expectations while the final Presidential debate appeared to do little to change the calculus for next month's election. Treasury prices moved up modestly but the benchmark US 10-year yield has stayed pegged around 1.75%, pre Brexit levels. Crude prices moved up mid-week on more bullish inventory statistics but fell back towards the end of the week to finish little changed. Stocks went sideways, and for the week the S&P500 added 0.4%, the DJIA was flat, and the Nasdaq gained 0.8%.


MONDAY 10/17
(EU) EURO ZONE SEPT FINAL CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.4%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.8% V 0.8%E
BAC: Reports Q3 $0.41 v $0.34e, R$21.6B v $20.8Be
(US) SEPT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.1% V 0.2%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 75.4% V 75.6%E
IBM: Reports Q3 $3.29 v $3.21e, R$19.2B v $19.0Be
F: Plans shutdown at four plants in next weeks to align production with demand and inventory goals - press

TUESDAY 10/18
BN.FR: Reports Q3 Rev €5.54B v €5.55Be
BRBY.UK: Reports H1 Rev £1.16B v £1.17Be
(CN) CHINA SEPT NEW YUAN LOANS (CNY): 1.22T (3-month high) V 1.00TE
(UK) SEPT PPI INPUT M/M: 0.0% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 7.2% V 7.4%E
(UK) Govt attorney Eadie: New Brexit treaty likely to be voted on by both Houses
GS: Reports Q3 $4.88 v $3.86e, R$8.17B v $7.56Be
S: Reports prelim Q2 Net loss $142M v loss $585M y/y, R$8.25B v $7.97Be
(US) SEPT CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; CPI EX FOOD AND ENERGY M/M: 0.1% V 0.2%E; CPI NSA INDEX: 241.428 V 241.498E
(US) OCT NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 63 V 63E
(US) AUG TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS: $73.8B V $140.6B PRIOR; NET LONG-TERM TIC FLOWS: $48.3B V $103.9B PRIOR
INTC: Reports Q3 $0.80 (adj) v $0.73e, R$15.8B v $15.6Be
(CL) CHILE CENTRAL BANK (BCCH) LEAVES OVERNIGHT RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 3.50%; AS EXPECTED
BHP.AU: Reports Q1 iron ore production 57.6Mt v 56.3e, flat y/y
(CN) CHINA Q3 GDP Q/Q: 1.8% V 1.8%E; Y/Y: 6.7% V 6.7%E
(CN) CHINA SEPT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 6.1% V 6.4%E; YTD Y/Y: 6.0% V 6.1%E
(CN) CHINA SEPT RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 10.7% (8-month high) V 10.7%E; YTD Y/Y: 10.4% V 10.3%E

WEDNESDAY 10/19
ASML.NL: Reports Q3 Net €396M v €407Me, Rev €1.81B v €1.73Be
CA.FR: Reports Q3 Rev €21.8B v €21.7Be
(UK) AUG AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS 3M/Y: 2.3% V 2.3%E; WEEKLY EARNINGS 3M/Y (EX BONUS): 2.3% V 2.1%E
(UK) SEPT JOBLESS CLAIMS CHANGE: +0.7K V +3.2KE; CLAIMANT COUNT RATE: 2.3% V 2.2%E
(UK) AUG ILO UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 3M/3M: 4.9% V 4.9%E
(US) SEPT HOUSING STARTS: 1.047M V 1.18ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.225M V 1.17ME
(CA) BANK OF CANADA (BOC) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.50%; AS EXPECTED
LHA.DE: Reports 9-month adj EBIT €1.68B v €1.69B y/y, Rev €23.9B v €24.3B y/y
GOOGL: Reportedly in advanced talks with Fox and Disney for web TV service; has already signed up CBS for the service - CNBC
(BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (BCB) CUTS SELIC RATE BY 25BPS TO 14.00%; AS EXPECTED
RIO.AU: Reports Q3 Pilbara iron ore production 68.5Mt (attributable) v 70.6Mte; 83.2Mt (100% basis), +2% y/y; shipments 80.9Mt (100% basis), -5% y/y
(AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -9.8K (2nd straight decline, biggest decline since Apr 2015) V +15.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.6% (3-year low) V 5.7%E

THURSDAY 10/20
ROG.CH: Reports 9M Rev CHF37.5B v CHF37.7Be
NESN.CH: Reports 9M Rev CHF65.5B v CHF66.0Be
(UK) SEPT RETAIL SALES (EX AUTO FUEL) M/M: 0.0% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 4.0% V 4.4%E
(UK) SEPT RETAIL SALES (INC AUTO FUEL) M/M: 0.0% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 4.1% V 4.7%E
(ID) INDONESIA CENTRAL BANK (BI) CUTS 7-DAY REVERSE REPO BY 25BPS TO 4.75%; NOT EXPECTED
941.HK: Reports 9M Net CNY88.1B v CNY85.4B y/y, EBITDA CNY200.4B v CNY192B y/y, Op Rev CNY542.7B v CNY513B y/y
(EU) ECB LEAVES MAIN REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED; reiterates view on rate guidance and QE program
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 260K V 250KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.06M V 2.05ME
(US) OCT PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 9.7 V 5.0E
(EU) ECB chief Draghi: Reiterates ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time; monthly asset purchases of €80B are intended to run until the end of March 2017, or beyond - Prepared remarks
(EU) ECB chief Draghi: ECB will announce what its plans for future months are at its Dec meeting after considering council technical work Q&A
(US) SEPT EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.47M V 5.35ME
BAC: CEO: consumers spending 5% more YTD y/y; we feel good about the US - TV interview
MSFT: Reports Q1 $0.76 adj v $0.68e, R$22.3B v $21.5Be
SLB: Reports Q3 $0.25 v $0.22e, R$7.02B v $7.13Be
(US) NORTH AMERICA Sept SEMI BOOK/BILL RATIO: 1.05 V 1.03 prior (above parity for 10th straight month)

FRIDAY 10/21
SAP.DE: Reports Q3 Net €725M v €895M y/y, Op profit €1.64B v €1.66Be, Rev €5.38B v €5.30Be
DAI.DE: Reports Q3 Net €2.73B v €2.42B y/y, EBIT €4.01B v €3.77Be, Rev €38.6B v €38.4Be
(UK) SEPT PUBLIC FINANCES (PSNCR): £13.3B V £0.7B PRIOR; PUBLIC SECTOR NET BORROWING: £10.1B V £8.2BE
CNBC's Faber: sources say NXPI and Qualcomm in handshake deal for $110/shr; some details remain to be worked out
TWX: AT&T reportedly in "advanced" talks to acquire Time Warner - financial press
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count: 553 v 539 w/w (+2.6%) (5th straight weekly increase)