>>> Royal Caribbean beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides FY17 EPS in-lin

Royal Caribbean beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides FY17 EPS in-line (100.50)
  • Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.99 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.93; revenues rose 4.7% year/year to $2.01 bln vs the $2.02 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
  • Co issues in-line guidance for FY17, sees EPS of $7.00-7.20 (Prior $6.90-7.10), excluding non-recurring items, vs. $7.07 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
    • Overall, the company's booked position remains at a record level, better than last year on both a rate and volume basis.
    • Net Yields are expected to increase 4.5% to 6.0% on a Constant-Currency basis (up 4.0% to 5.5% As-Reported).
    • NCC excluding fuel are expected to be flat to up slightly on a Constant-Currency basis (flat As-Reported).
  • Outlook
  • Looking at the year as a whole, the company's expectations remain largely unchanged from the guidance it provided 3 months ago:
    • Bookings, overall, are not materially different, with strength in Europe offsetting the impact of Korea;
    • Currency and fuel are not materially different;
    • Costs continue to be under control;
    • First quarter results are the key drivers of the upward guidance revision for the full year

>>> Goodyear Tire beats by $0.11, misses on revs / no premarket yet

Goodyear Tire beats by $0.11, misses on revs (35.45)
  • Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.74 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.11 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.63; revenues rose 0.2% year/year to $3.70 bln vs the $3.78 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
  • "These results are a great outcome given an environment of rising raw material costs and weaker demand...While raw material inflation has moderated in recent weeks, we continue to expect a significant year-over-year headwind in 2017."
  • Co confirms its 2017 segment operating income guidance of approximately $2.0 bln and its 2020 financial targets and capital allocation plan.

>>> Alphabet A: Color on Qtr --> GOOG +4.2% - All time High

Alphabet A: Color on Qtr (891.44)
  • Pivotal Research notes Alphabet reported another quarter featuring better-than-expected metrics on revenue growth, expense management and capital expenditures. Longer-term expectations are raised slightly. Firm continues to rate the stock Hold. Company provided new disclosures on regional revenue breakouts. On a constant currency basis, the US (48% of revenue) rose by +25%, EMEA (33% of revenues) grew by +19%, APAC (15% of revenues) expanded by +26% and Other Americas outside of the US (5% of revenues) gained +29%. As a subset of EMEA revenues, the UK (8% of total revenues) was up +16%. Looking at costs, TAC to network members rose to represent 70.5% of network revenue -- marginally higher vs. recent levels, but still the highest for any quarter since 2009.
  • RBC Capital raises tgt to $1050 from $1025. Key Positives were: a) Impressive top-line growth, b) Stabilization in Core Google Operating Margins, and c) $1.1B Share Repo. Q1 Keys: (1) Robust & Consistent Revenue Growth: 24% Y/Y Organic Rev growth matched Q4's robust rate, while 20% Y/Y Ad growth (ex-FX) accelerated 1pt. (2) Expanding Op Margin: Non-GAAP Op Margin of 42.6% was up 110bps Y/Y, while GAAP Op Margin was up 20bps Y/Y to 32.6% despite the increased SBC. (3) Mobile Impacts Clicks & CPCs: 44% Y/Y Paid Click growth is the highest in a decade with particular strength in Google Sites (record-high 53% Y/Y); overall CPCs, however, decline of (19%) Y/Y. (4) Higher Overall TAC: 10.4% of Google Sites (up 60bps Q/Q) was a new high, as was the 70.5% at Network (up 90bps Q/Q); overall TAC remained at 21.6% of Total Ad Rev. This was the negative.
  • Wedbush raises tgt to $725 from $700. Solid beat in seasonally small 1Q takes up firm's estimates and PT, but Sites TAC pressures keep building, and results are too early to reflect traction of newer ad products of an AMZN or quality challenges for YouTube in pulling from TV. Recent advertiser pullbacks from YouTube were likely too recent to affect 1Q growth, and, more importantly, its progress against TV depends more on upcoming advertiser negotiations. Wedbush's view remains that incursions by other FAANG companies into search are likely to have a detectible impact by 2018.

>>> Amazon: Color on Quarter -->+3.5% @ 950 - All time high

Amazon: Color on Quarter (918.38)
  • RBC Capital Mkts raises their AMZN tgt to $1100 from $900. AMZN posted strong Q1 results, with Revenue and Operating Income coming in ahead of Street expectations & Q2 guidance bracketing the Street. Fundamentals remain very much intact as the company continues to invest aggressively.
  • Wedbush notes Amazon continues to deliver substantial earnings growth, tempered somewhat by spending on new initiatives. Amazon appears intent upon growing annual profits (with some quarterly volatility), which we expect to continue as the co invests in growth. Amazon Web Services (AWS), Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA), and advertising should continue to drive growth and at high margin. As a result, they expect gross and operating margins to continue expanding rapidly. They expect international Prime membership growth to drive overall retail revenue, particularly as Amazon is rapidly expanding in India. Operating margin expansion will likely be tempered somewhat by increased spending on video content, fulfillment, and international expansion; however, the trajectory is clear and the company's investment strategy purposeful.
  • Maxim raises tgt to $1075 from 100 after impressive top and bottom line results.
  • KeyBanc/Pacific Crest downgraded to Sector Weight -- As good as it gets (for now); stepped-up competition may dampen near-term upside

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
Gapping up: ALGN +13.2%, EHTH +8.7%, WDC +8.4%, SYNA +7.6%,TRMB +7.3%, BJRI +7.2%, LPLA +6.8%, SWN +6.1%, MDXG +5.7%, PER+4.8%, HON +4.7%, MOBL +4.5%, CERN +4.1%, GOOG +4%, ZEUS +4%,UBS +3.9%, TRVG +3.8%, AMZN +3.7%, HLS +3.4%, IDXX +3.4%, RBS+3.4%, CNHI +3.3%, DELT +3.1%, VRTX +3.1%, SMCI +2.9%, APO+2.9%, CEI +2.8%, MT +2.7%, MMSI +2.6%, SAN +2.3%, SNE +2.3%,VDSI +2.2%, BRKS +2.2%, VALE +2.1%, MU +2.1%, AVHI +2.1%, ASX+2.1%, RIO +1.9%, LYB +1.8%, RIG +1.7%, BBL +1.7%, TEAM +1.6%,GPRO +1.6%, SNY +1.6%, WETF +1.6%, GFI +1.5%, AMD +1.5%, GLPG+1.5%, NOK +1.4%, FB +1.4%, WFT +1.4%, BLDP +1.3%, BHP +1.3%,ABX +1.3%, STM +1.3%, SBGL +1.2%, PSX +1.2%, TRI +1.2%, RXDX+1.1%, PXLW +1.1%, GDX +1%, FHB +1%, AEM +1%, SIMO +1%

Gapping down: CRMD -37.5%, FCEL -21.9%, CYTR -18.2%, ATHN-16.8%, GIMO -16%, CLD -15%, TRXC -11.9%, PCMI -11.1%, VCRA-11.1%, MTRX -10.2%, ARAY -9.8%, TNDM -9.5%, ELLI -9.2%, ORC-8.4%, FTNT -7.2%, RMD -6.5%, SYF -6.2%, GHL -5.1%, BCS -5%, STAY-4.6%, SBUX -4.6%, TMST -4.5%, INTC -3.8%, ABAX -3.7%, KLAC-3.5%, CL -3.3%, FLEX -3.2%, CYTK -3.2%, ATEN -3.1%, MHK -2.9%,SWKS -2.7%, BIDU -2.5%, NXPI -2.4%, EXPE -2%, RGA -1.5%, CSL-1.4%, SRPT -1.4%, COHU -1.3%, APAM -0.7%, HRC -0.7%, FII -0.6%,VRSN -0.6%, VFC -0.6%, PFG -0.5%, KBR -0.5%

>>> Colgate comments - slowing growth

RTRS - COLGATE-PALMOLIVE CO - Q1 WAS "CHALLENGING" AND DID NOT MEET OUR ORGANIC SALES GROWTH EXPECTATIONS, DRIVEN MAINLY BY "SOFTER" RESULTS IN NORTH AMERICA
RTRS - COLGATE-PALMOLIVE CO - "AS WE LOOK AHEAD, UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MARKETS AND SLOWING CATEGORY GROWTH WORLDWIDE REMAIN CHALLENGING"

MAKOR MERGER ARBITRAGE COMMENT - ZC FP / SAF FP - OUR THOUGHTS ON ZODIAC'S H

April 28, 2017 

 

MAKOR MERGER ARBITRAGE COMMENT - ZC FP / SAF FP - OUR THOUGHTS ON ZODIAC'S H1 RESULTS

 

Zodiac continues to be very supportive of a deal with Safran and have said that they have provided Safran with all the additional required information and now the decision remains up to Safran whether or not a transaction is ultimately reached. A transaction with Safran is Zodiac’s preferred strategy although they reiterated that they also have very good standalone prospects which Zodiac have strong confidence in. Zodiac is expected to operate under “normal conditions” by the end of 2017.

 

Zodiac reported better H2 guidance aided by a ramp-up of electrical systems activity, a strong order book in Data Systems to deliver in H2 and their “Restore Margin” action plan. Zodiac have pushed back their double digits margins target to 2019 from 2018 and reiterated its target of a “mid-double digit” current operating margin by fiscal year 2018/2019. Zodiac expect to fully eliminate disruption costs by end FY19. FY 16/17 COI is now estimated between €200m and €220m.

 

In the call this morning, Zodiac denied the need for a rights issue. They also stated that their banking covenant is to be respected at year end and medium-term financing has been fully secured.

 

We remain convinced by the strong strategic rationale for Zodiac and Safran to do a deal. We also note the comments from TCI reiterating that Safran is overpaying for Zodiac. While a small reduction (c.10%) in the mooted €29.47 offer price could be warranted we note that the families are highly unlikely to accept a significant reduction in the Offer Price. The Domange family has commented that they are expecting the Safran offer in c.1month and that they see a Zodiac improvement in a few quarters and that Zodiac has not lost the trust of most of its clients.

 

Zodiac continues to battle industrial issues particularly in their seats branch which they say are currently being addressed. Zodiac Seats US is back to its normal operational performance but Zodiac Seats UK should return to normal performance by December 2017 as Zodiac have transferred their production to other Group facilities (however this has resulted in cost penalties).

 

 

 

  

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Reuters - Akzo Nobel investor USS backs call for PPG talks over revised bid

One of Britain's biggest pension scheme investors has called on Dutch paintmaker Akzo Nobel to engage with U.S. suitor PPG Industries over a revised bid and criticized the board's handling of the issue.

The Universities Superannuation Scheme, which manages around 57 billion pounds ($73.66 billion) on behalf of 375,000 savers, said a revised $29 billion bid for Akzo from PPG was enough for "meaningful and constructive" dialogue to begin "in earnest".

After rejecting two previous bids, Akzo has yet to respond to the third. At the firm's annual meeting on Tuesday, it refused a request from a group of shareholders to hold an extraordinary general meeting to discuss the bid.

Daniel Summerfield, Co-Head of Responsible Investment at USS, said the decision to refuse the EGM request "not only undermines the credibility of the board but portrays Dutch governance in a very negative light".

USS said in a statement that it had been a shareholder in Akzo Nobel since 2010 and currently held a 1.28 percent stake in Akzo, making it a top-10 investor according to Thomson Reuters data.

(ValuersActuelles) Présidentielle : la théorie qui installe Marine Le Pen à l’Él

Présidentielle : la théorie qui installe Marine Le Pen à l’Élysée


Second tour. Serge Galam, physicien et chercheur au CEVIPOF, estime que malgré son retard dans les sondages, Marine Le Pen pourrait être élue présidente de la République grâce à ce qu’il appelle “l’abstention différenciée”. Explications.

Les sondeurs ont certes très bien prédit les résultats du premier tour de l’élection présidentielle, mais ils ont aussi déjà prouvé, à plusieurs reprises, leur capacité à se tromper. Alors quand un physicien, chercheur au centre de recherches politiques de Sciences Po (CEVIPOF), explique scientifiquement que Marine Le Pen a une chance de faire mentir les pronostics, les médias tendent l’oreille. Serge Galam a déjà prédit l’élection de Donald Trump et la défaite d’Alain Juppé à la primaire de la droite, ce qui donne encore plus de poids à sa démonstration.

Faible mobilisation de l'électorat Macron

Quelle est sa théorie ? Elle repose sur un étonnant postulat de départ : la candidate du Front national pourrait gagner l’élection, sans pour autant que les intentions de vote annoncées par les sondeurs, qui la donnent largement battue, ne soient erronées. Comment cela est-il possible ? En raison de ce qu’il appelle “l’abstention différenciée”. En termes d’intentions de vote, Marine Le Pen est incapable selon lui “de dépasser la barre des 50%”, comme il l’explique à l’Express. Mais elle pourrait bénéficier le jour du vote de la faible mobilisation de l’électorat d’Emmanuel Macron, qui n’est pas forcément perçue dans les sondages. Des électeurs qui certes ont l’intention de voter Macron, mais qui finalement ne se déplaceront pas pour le faire. Une sorte d’abstention cachée, comme certains estimaient qu’il pouvait exister au premier tour un “vote caché” en faveur de François Fillon.

L’explication est chiffrée. Le chercheur part de l’hypothèse où les intentions de vote pronostiquées par les sondeurs seraient exactes, et que Marine Le Pen bénéficie donc de 42% contre 58% pour Emmanuel Macron. Dans cette configuration, si 90% des électeurs FN vont voter le 7 mai, et seulement 65% de ceux qui ont annoncé voter pour Macron, la présidente du FN serait élue avec 50,07% des voix. Pour seulement deux points d’intention de vote de plus pour Marine Le Pen (44%), avec toujours 90% des électeurs FN allant voter, il faudrait alors 70,71% de mobilisation à Emmanuel Macron pour l’emporter.

“Toute excuse pourra être bonne pour ‘oublier' d'aller voter”

Pourquoi l’électorat Macron serait si peu mobilisé ? Interrogé sur internet ou au téléphone, le sondé explique qu’il votera pour Emmanuel Macron, la plupart du temps pour faire opposition à Marine Le Pen. Mais au moment de se déplacer au bureau de vote, cette unique motivation pourrait ne pas suffire. Selon Serge Galam, “toute excuse pourra être bonne pour ‘oublier' d'aller voter”, notamment chez les électeurs profondément anti-FN mais pour qui glisser un bulletin Macron dans l’urne serait une “pilule très amère” à avaler. Le physicien estime que la campagne d’entre-deux tours, les campagnes de dénigrement de Macron sur les réseaux sociaux où l’absence de consigne de vote donnée par Jean-Luc Mélenchon peuvent donner du poids à sa théorie. Les séquences politiques comme celle de l’usine Whirlpool peuvent également jouer en la défaveur du candidat En Marche !, notamment pour l’électorat de Mélenchon, qui rentrerait parfaitement dans la case des anti-FN ayant du mal à se résoudre à voter pour la créature de François Hollande.

“C'est amusant de voir les sondeurs être très fiers d'avoir fait la bonne traduction. Ils ont raison, mais ça ne met pas à l'abri de faire de nouvelles erreurs la prochaine fois. Il faut un peu d'humilité, car on n'a pas d'outils fiables à 100 %” lance Serge Galam, interrogé par Le Point. Car les sondeurs, bien au fait de sa théorie sur “l’abstention différenciée”, affirment avoir déjà pris en compte dans leur méthode cette possibilité d’une abstention cachée. Ils demandent notamment quelle est la certitude d’aller voter, et ne conservent que les résultats des sondés pour laquelle elle est très élevée. Depuis l’échec de leurs confrères anglo-saxons lors du Brexit et de l’élection américaine, les sondeurs français ont fait leur auto-critique, avec une réussite certaine lors du premier tour. Mais la théorie de Galam ne fait pas leur procès. Elle laisse simplement à Marine Le Pen une fenêtre de tir, sans affirmer qu’elle sera nécessairement élue présidente, et sans que sa potentielle victoire ne remette en cause la réalité des intentions de vote exprimées aujourd’hui par les différents instituts de sondage.