>>> What to look at today - 11th of December 2025

A global equities rally spurred by the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut evaporated as disappointing results from Oracle Corp. weighed on tech shares and focus turned to the US central bank’s outlook for further easing next year. Futures on Nasdaq 100 slumped more than 1.5%, while a selloff in technology stocks in Asia caused the regional equity gauge to reverse earlier gains. S&P 500 futures were down 0.8%. Shares of Oracle, whose fate is deeply tied to the artificial intelligence boom, plunged more than 10% in extended US trading after second-quarter cloud sales fell just short of analysts’ estimates. In a sign of waning risk appetite, Bitcoin lost more than 2%. The moves came after the S&P 500 rose 0.7% on Wednesday, ending just short of all-time highs, as the Fed cut rates for a third consecutive time and Chair Jerome Powell voiced optimism that the economy will strengthen as the inflationary impact from tariffs fades away. The result marked the first time since 2019 that three officials voted against a policy decision, with dissents on both ends of the policy spectrum. Officials maintained their outlook for a single cut in 2026. “While most of the focus was on the FOMC, a key risk for markets overnight was Oracle,” said Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X Management. Its result was a key test for the AI infrastructure trade given Oracle’s role as a bellwether for hyperscale data center spending and has added to broader tech pressure, he said. Oracle reported a jump in spending on AI data centers and other equipment, rising outlays that are taking longer to translate into cloud revenue than investors wanted. Powered by an AI-driven rally, MSCI Inc.’s index of global stocks has surged about 20% this year and is on course for its best annual advance since 2019. A gauge of Asian technology stocks was down more than 1%, versus a 0.5% decline in the broader regional benchmark. Shares of SoftBank Group lost more than 8% in Tokyo. Traders in Asia were also assessing the impact of Mexican lawmakers’ final approval for new tariffs on the region’s imports. Also in focus was Thursday’s interest-rate decision in the Philippines, where the central bank is predicted to cut its key interest rate for a fifth straight meeting. In Japan, bonds gained after an auction of 20-year government debt drew its strongest demand since 2020. Yields across the curve have recently climbed to multi-year highs on renewed fiscal concerns as well as rising expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike at its meeting next week. Elsewhere in markets, a gauge of the dollar edged higher after falling 0.4% on Wednesday. In commodities, oil prices were in focus after the US seized a sanctioned tanker off Venezuela, deterring more shipments from the South American producer and raising the risk of a conflict. US Treasuries rallied on Wednesday, with the policy-sensitive two-year yield sliding eight basis points, as the Fed’s quarter-point rate reduction was accompanied by the authorization of fresh Treasury bill purchases to rebuild bank reserves. The yield fell one more basis point on Thursday. The 10-year yield, which dropped around four basis points in the previous session, was two basis points lower on Thursday. The declines have stalled a prior run up in yields that had driven one global gauge to its highest since 2009. Powell pushed through the quarter percentage point cut not only over the objection of a few voters. A much larger group of regional Fed bank presidents who participated in the debate but weren’t among this year’s voting roster also signaled they opposed the cut. The fractures could foreshadow what’s to come in 2026, when a new chair may struggle even more than Powell to marshal consensus at the Fed. The Fed chair suggested the central bank had now acted sufficiently to help stabilize the labor market while leaving rates high enough to continue weighing on price pressures. He also underscored the importance of upcoming economic reports while advising caution on assessing household jobs readouts, given technical distortions after a government shutdown caused a data blackout. US After Hours ORCL -11.3%, OXM -21.7% lower on earnings/guidance; ADBE +0.5% slightly higher on earnings; KO flat gets a new CEO.

Nikkei -0.92% Hang Seng -0.07% CSI -0.38% Shanghai -0.58% Shenzen -0.66%

Eur$ 1.1689 CNH 7.0612 CNY 7.0625 JPY 155.92 GBP 1.3366 CHF 0.7996 RUB 78.6954 TRY 42.6141 WTI$ 58.41 -0.10% Gold 4,212 -0.41% BTC 90,271 -2.30% ETH 3,306 -4.10% SOL 131.13 -4.65%

S&P -0.81% Nasdaq -1.15% EuroStoxx -0.05% FTSE -0.06% Dax -0.20% SMI -°.01%

Macro :
- Fed Cuts Rates With Three Dissents, Projects One Cut in 2026
- Chipmakers Sued Over Tech in Russian Weapons
- Saylor Slams MSCI Plan to Bar Crypto-Heavy Firms From Indexes
- Federal Reserve cuts rates to three-year low after fractious meeting
- Ukraine Sent Revised Peace Plan to Washington Amid Talks
- Mexico Approves Up to 50% Tariffs on China, Other Asian Nations
- Bitcoin Slides Below $90,000 After Fed Cut Even as Stocks Rally
- Copper Advances Toward Record High After Fed Delivers Rate Cut
- Tax Raid Deepens London’s Housing Market Downturn, Agents Say

Keep an eye on :
- ADP FP : Paris Airports Operator Plans €8.4B Spending to Stay Competitive
- AIFORIA FH : Aiforia Technologies Offers 2m Shares via Evli Bank
- AMZN US : American Airlines in Talks With Amazon for Leo In-Flight Wi-Fi
- BC IM : Brunello Cucinelli Maintains 2026 Revenue Forecast
- AFX GY : Carl Zeiss Meditec FY Revenue Beats Estimates
- COHR US : Bain Capital Is Said to Offer Coherent Shares in Block Trade
- CVC NA : CVC Said to Name Peter Rutland as President of Investment Firm
- DEME BB : Deme Wins Offshore Wind Farm Contracts in Poland
- DBX US : Dropbox Slides; Names Ross Tennenbaum CFO to Replace Regan
- ENGI FP : Engie, CIP Said to Vie for Orsted’s European Onshore Wind Unit
- ENX FP : Euronext Reports No Changes to BEL 20 Index
- EXENS FP : Exosens, Theon Sign €500M Defense Contract With Occar
- FRA GY : Fraport Nov. Frankfurt Airport Passengers 4.8M
- IDR SM : Indra Board Says Escribano Transaction Consistent With Strategy
- ISRG US : Intuitive da Vinci Gets FDA OK for Hernia Repair and Others
- MELI US : MercadoLibre to Use Agility’s Humanoid Robot at Fulfillment Site
- MSFT US : Microsoft Plans New Agentic AI Model Release on Friday: CEOtop
- NTGY SM : Naturgy Holder GIP III Canary 1 to Offer Up to 69m Shares
- NLFSK DC : Nilfisk Sees FY Organic Revenue 0% to +1%, Saw About +1%
- NOVB DC : Novo Nordisk Is Trading as If Obesity Drug Craze Never Happened
- ONTEX BB : Ontex Names Laurent Nielly CEO, Succeeding Gustavo Calvo Paz
- ORCL US : Oracle Sinks as 2Q Adj. Operating Income Misses: Snapshot
- ORSTED DC : Engie, CIP Said to Vie for Orsted’s European Onshore Wind Unit
- PAT GY : Patrizia Jumps as Investors Agree on Dawonia Mandate Extension
- SGSN SW : SGS Board to Propose Sandoz’s Gilbert Ghostine as New Chair
- Statling Bank : Starling Bank Explores Plans to Buy Another UK Lender: FT
- STLA US : Billionaire Peugeots Jockey for Stellantis Seat as Clout Wanes
- MSTR US : Saylor Slams MSCI Plan to Bar Crypto-Heavy Firms From Indexes
- TEVA IT : Teva to Have ‘Improper Patent Listings’ Removed After Probe: FTC
- TGS NO : TGS Wins 75-Day Streamer 4D Contract in Brazil
- UBER US : Lyft, Uber Fall as Wedbush Flags Tesla and Waymo Threat
- VLA FP : Valneva Has Positive Data for Chikungunya Vaccine for Children
- VSURE SS : Stockholm’s Bumper IPO Year Sets a High Bar for 2026: ECM Watch
- VOW GY : UST Acquires Majority Stake In Audi’s Italdesign; No Terms
- VOW GY : Audi to Sell Design Firm That Worked on First VW Golf to UST
- WBD US : Paramount Says Its Offer For Warner Bros. Discovery Is Superior
- WBD US : Warner Bros. Merger Fight Draws Fire Across US Political Divide
- WG/ LN : Wood Group Sells UK T&D to United Infrastructure for £57.5m
- ZEAL DC : Zealand to Partner With OTR for Metabolic Disease Treatments
- ZEAL DC : Zealand Sets 2030 Target of at Least 10 Pipeline Programs
- FHZN SW : Zurich Airport Nov. Passenger Traffic +7.1%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 11th of December 2025

>>> Up
* Aker BP Raised to Outperform at RBC
* Covestro Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 62 euros
* Delivery Hero Raised to Neutral at Cantor; PT 21.50 euros
* Elekta Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 66 kronor
* Eutelsat Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 2.30 euros
* Ferrari Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas
* H&M Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 172 kronor
* Kitron Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 80 kroner
* LDA SM Raised to Outperform at Renta 4; PT 1.39 euros
* Pernod Ricard Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 102 euros
* Rheinmetall Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT 2,050 euros
* Roku Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $135
* RS Group Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
* Sabadell Raised to Outperform at Renta 4; PT 3.78 euros
* Sainsbury Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 349 pence
* Sainsbury Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 375 pence
* Var Energi Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 36 kroner

>>> Down
* Aker BP Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 226 kroner
* B&M European Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 165 pence
* Bankinter Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas
* BAT Cut to Market Perform at Avior Capital Markets
* Clariant Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 7.80 Swiss francs
* Delivery Hero Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 19 euros
* Evolution Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 630 kronor
* Galp Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 17 euros
* Harbour Energy Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 214 pence
* Iberdrola Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 19.20 euros
* Lloyds Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas
* NatWest Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 685 pence
* Stellantis Cut to Underperform at BNP Paribas
* Travis Perkins Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 530 pence
* Unilever Cut to Hold at ING; PT 4,542.69 pence
* Uniqa Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 15 euros

>>> Initiation
* Alcon AG Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 79 Swiss francs
* Appear Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 115 kroner
* Emilshus Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 60 kronor
* Experian Resumed Overweight at JPMorgan
* Harvia Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 48 euros
* Serco Reinstated Neutral at JPMorgan
* Systemair Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 100 kronor

>>> Call
* Alcon a Leader in Growing Markets, Oddo BHF Rates Outperform
* Chemicals Downside Now Mainly Reflected in Shares, Citi Says
* Exosens, Theon Night-Vision Order Supports Expansion: Bernstein
* Rheinmetall Raised at Bernstein, Stock Pricing In Bear Case
* Sainsbury Raised at Citi; Inditex, Tesco Among Top Retail Picks

FT : Biotech boss urges pharma to move on from ‘weight-loss Olympics’

Biotech boss urges pharma to move on from ‘weight-loss Olympics’
Zealand Pharma chief says next-generation obesity drugs will need to be longer lasting and better tolerated

Pharma companies need to move beyond the “weight-loss Olympics” and focus on more durable treatments with fewer side effects, according to the chief executive of Zealand Pharma, which this year agreed a $5.3bn obesity partnership with Roche.

Adam Steensberg, whose Copenhagen-listed group agreed the deal to develop a new weight-loss drug petrelintide in March, said the number of people who stopped using the current blockbuster drugs because of side effects represented an opportunity to offer something more tolerable.

“We need to get away from the weight-loss Olympics, which is about how fast and rapid and how deep you can go . . . We need to get into durability and quality of the weight loss,” Steensberg told the Financial Times ahead of Zealand’s capital markets day on Thursday.

Steensberg claimed data suggested 50 per cent of patients who stopped taking existing GLP-1-based weight-loss drugs did so because of side effects.

In the coming year, Zealand expects phase 2 clinical trial data for petrelintide and phase 3 data for survodutide, a drug licensed to German company Boehringer Ingelheim, which is being tested for the treatment of obesity and MASH, an associated liver disease.

Zealand’s share price has fallen nearly 30 per cent this year. Steensberg said this could be partly explained by “all the uncertainty and all the investments being made into AI” which has caused “cyclical swings” for companies like Zealand with “limited news flow”.

Petrelintide is based on the hormone amylin which makes people feel full more quickly and for longer when they eat. The most popular drugs for weight loss and type 2 diabetes currently on the market — Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound — belong to a class of medicines based on the gut hormone GLP-1, which suppresses appetite.

Studies have found that amylin-based weight-loss treatments can cause fewer side effects than GLP-1 drugs.

Steensberg said Zealand was “certain that the GLP-1s will not be able to solve the global obesity pandemic because people cannot stay on these therapies for a long run”.

With petrelintide not expected on the market until 2029, by which time generic versions of current blockbuster weight-loss drugs could also be available, Zealand’s flagship product will face stiff competition. Steensberg said he relished the challenge and drew a parallel with consumer behaviours in another market: “There are a lot of cheap used cars today, but many people still buy a new car because they want a different driving experience.”

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Var Energi (J4V TH) +1.7%
  • Legal & General (LGI TH) +1.5%
  • Nordex (NDX1 TH) +1.1%
  • SAP (SAP TH) -1.3%
    • Watch Software Stocks After Oracle’s Disappointing Cloud Sales
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) -1.3%
  • Leonardo (FMNB TH) -1.3%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) -1.3%
  • Glencore (8GC TH) -1.4%
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) -1.5%
  • ASM Intl (AVS TH) -1.5%
  • Mowi (PND TH) -1.9%
  • Alcon AG (2U3 TH) -2.3%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -4.6%
    • Delivery Hero Raised to Neutral at Cantor; PT 21.50 euros
    • Delivery Hero Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 19 euros
    • Stock up 14% yesterday

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +0.3%
    • Rheinmetall Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT 2,050 euros
  • SAP (SAP TH) -1.2%
    • Watch Software Stocks After Oracle’s Disappointing Cloud Sales
MDAX:
  • Nordex (NDX1 TH) +1.4%
  • Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX TH) +1.3%
    • Carl Zeiss Meditec FY Revenue Beats Estimates
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) -1.1%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -4.6%
    • Delivery Hero Raised to Neutral at Cantor; PT 21.50 euros
    • Delivery Hero Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 19 euros
    • Stock up 14% yesterday
SDAX:
  • Stabilus (STM TH) +1.1%
  • Hamborner REIT (HABA TH) +1%
  • Schott Pharma AG & Co KGaA (1SXP TH) -1.3%
  • Patrizia (PAT TH) -1.8%
  • SUSS MicroTec (SMHN TH) -3.4%

>>> European Options Snapshot

Here were the Stoxx 600 companies with notable options trading:
Name Options Volume Volume vs 20D Avg. P/C Volume P/C OI Stock Move 1M IV-RV 1M IV %ile 1Y 3M 90-110 Skew %ile 1Y
Zalando 17,771 7.1 1.5 2.2 -0.7% 8.4 22 37
Aegon 97,614 6.7 1.1 1.1 -10.1% -20.5 38 19
Delivery Hero 36,465 6.4 0.0 0.6 13.7% -22.7 63 6
Essity 6,779 5.0 55.5 0.9 0.0% -0.3 5 13
Ferrari 5,329 4.5 4.6 1.3 -4.4% 0.2 47 27
SocGen 14,080 3.2 0.7 4.2 0.9% 2.5 17 28
Vonovia 29,215 2.7 1.4 1.9 -0.3% 3.6 22 96
Michelin 6,179 2.6 87.3 1.6 -0.6% 2.0 54 16
LVMH 9,005 2.6 7.1 1.1 0.4% 7.7 8 9
Enel 10,776 2.3 0.3 3.5 -0.5% -0.7 17 29


Index Options Volume Volume vs 20D Avg. P/C Volume P/C OI Index Move 1M IV-RV 1M IV %ile 1Y 3M 90-110 Skew %ile 1Y
SX5E 779,784 0.9 2.2 2.2 -0.2% 0.9 7 63
SX7E 170,704 1.3 1.0 2.2 0.2% -0.4 16 45
DAX 41,970 0.8 1.8 1.5 -0.1% 0.3 10 44
AEX 20,625 0.5 0.8 1.9 -0.4% 2.1 22 68
UKX 15,204 0.5 1.1 2.3 0.1% 1.3 33 69
SMI 12,002 0.9 1.0 1.7 -0.1% 3.0 9 55
OMX 6,855 0.5 1.1 1.8 0.1% 0.4 26 35
FTSEMIB 6,267 1.5 1.0 1.7 -0.3% 1.5 8 62
SXXP 6,124 0.5 3.9 3.9 0.1% 0.6 10 70
CAC 4,857 0.8 13.8 1.5 -0.4% 3.3 7 58
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

>>> Options Term Structure : BBVA, Prosus, Schneider Electric, Siemens Energy

  • Biggest increases in one-year vs three-month IV spread:
    • Bayer term structure up 2.2 points to 0.4, in the 88th percentile; stock rose 6.9% w/w (RSI: 78); skew in the 94th percentile
    • UniCredit term structure up 0.7 point to 1, in the 74th percentile; stock rose 2% w/w (RSI: 62); skew in the 32nd percentile
    • Intesa Sanpaolo term structure up 0.6 point to 1.5, in the 85th percentile; stock rose 0.9% w/w (RSI: 52); skew in the 38th percentile
    • Prosus term structure up 0.5 points to 4.8, in the 100th percentile; stock rose 0.3% w/w (RSI: 30); skew in the 77th percentile
    • BBVA term structure up 0.4 points to 1.2, in the 95th percentile; stock rose 1.6% w/w (RSI: 63); skew in the 40th percentile
  • Biggest decreases in one-year vs three-month IV spread:
    • BMW term structure down 1.6 points to -1.1, in the 58th percentile; stock rose 7.3% w/w (RSI: 70); skew in the 40th percentile
    • Wolters Kluwer term structure down 1.5 points to -2.3, in the 4th percentile; stock fell 2.6% w/w (RSI: 33); skew in the 20th percentile
    • Siemens Energy term structure down 1.2 points to 1.4, in the 89th percentile; stock rose 8.4% w/w (RSI: 65); skew in the 46th percentile
    • Adidas term structure down 1.1 points to 1.1, in the 84th percentile; stock rose 1% w/w (RSI: 48); skew in the 23rd percentile
    • Schneider Electric term structure down 1 points to 0.3, in the 82nd percentile; stock rose 1.7% w/w (RSI: 50); skew in the 2nd percentile

WSJ : Fed’s Fractured Vote Signals Trouble Ahead for Future Rate Cuts

Fed’s Fractured Vote Signals Trouble Ahead for Future Rate Cuts
Trump wants lower rates and a new Fed chair. Wednesday’s divisions suggest one won’t guarantee the other.

Jerome Powell pushed through a rate cut Wednesday over the broadest reservations of his nearly eight-year tenure, and in doing so, implicitly delivered a pointed message to President Trump and his own successor: Cutting rates is harder than it looks.

The decision drew three dissents—two from officials who opposed any cut and one from a Trump ally who wanted a larger reduction.

The formal vote understated the resistance. Four other officials registered a quieter objection in the Fed’s quarterly projections: They wrote down a higher interest rate for 2025 than the one the committee approved—a signal they wouldn’t have cut. Together with the dissenters, that is roughly a third of the policymakers who attend Fed meetings.


Trump immediately voiced his displeasure that the cut wasn’t bigger. “I’m looking for somebody that will be honest with interest rates,” he said on Wednesday ahead of his first formal interview with a candidate to succeed Powell, whose term ends in May. “Our rate should be much lower.”

Powell led his colleagues to cut at the past three meetings, including the one this week, based on two main considerations. First, he judged that inflation wasn’t proving to be as big a worry as many feared when Trump announced large tariff increases this past spring.

Second, while officials have expected job growth to cool gradually this year, that process has been “a touch” cooler than expected recently, he said Wednesday.

Nevertheless, Powell gave little indication that further cuts were imminent.

The Fed’s new projections underscored the challenge. Seven of 19 participants at this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting thought no rate cuts would be warranted next year, and four saw no more than one—likely far fewer than what the president wants, and a potential conundrum for whoever takes over in May.

Unless Trump forces major institutional upheaval, that leaves two ways he or a new chair could get lower rates next year: a much weaker economy or meaningful progress on inflation that might not be visible for months.

The division reflects a committee split over a fundamental question: not whether it could be on the brink of a policy error, but which one.

Doves see a softening labor market despite 1.5 percentage points of rate cuts over the past 15 months—now 1.75 with Wednesday’s move. They worry that waiting for proof of weakness will mean acting too late to prevent it. Hawks see a central bank cutting into an economy stronger than it looks, risking a repeat of the “stop and go” mistakes of the 1970s.

“Short of a major change in the composition of who sits around the Fed, there’s going to be enormous pushback to rate cuts,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG.

The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is led by the chair but includes 11 other members: six other members of the board of governors, who are appointed by presidents from both parties, and the New York Fed president and four of 11 other Fed bank presidents, who take turns voting. Those bank presidents aren’t political appointees.

The disagreement on display reflects how the Fed was designed, said Richard Clarida, a former Fed vice chair who served alongside Powell and is now at Pimco. “The FOMC was intentionally set up to have a mix of voting on policy by the reserve bank presidents and the board,” he said. “That is very much a feature, not a bug.”

The Fed’s consensus-driven culture aims to build broad enough support to minimize dissents, but Wednesday’s opposition to a cut wasn’t necessarily “antagonistic toward the leadership,” said David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs. “It could actually be somewhat helpful, because they’re trying to get across ‘the bar is higher’ without saying, ‘We’re not going to do something that we might very well wind up wanting to do.’”

Trump’s own advisers have acknowledged the constraints in the past few days. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said recently that “the chair of the Federal Reserve has the ability to move and start the discussion, but at the end of the day, he or she has one vote.”

Kevin Hassett, a longtime Trump adviser and the presumed front-runner to succeed Powell, struck a similar note Tuesday. Asked what he would do if Trump publicly pressured him to cut rates, Hassett said his loyalty would be to his own judgment. “Suppose that inflation has gone from, say, 2.5% to 4%—you can’t cut rates then,” he said at The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council Summit.

But the administration has also sent signals that suggest it might not quietly accept those limits.

Bessent has questioned the legitimacy of several regional Fed presidents who have been among the most hawkish voices, adding that they don’t hail from the districts whose banks they lead. He said he would advocate that future Fed presidents be required to have lived in their districts for at least three years—a rule that would have disqualified several sitting presidents. They are chosen by business and nonprofit leaders who sit on those banks’ boards of directors.

Trump has already tried to remove Lisa Cook, a Fed governor nominated by President Joe Biden who has successfully challenged her firing for now. The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments in her case in January, before the Fed’s next meeting.

Trump on Tuesday raised the far-fetched possibility of removing other Biden-nominated governors over how their nominations were signed—an indication of how eager he is to find any means, no matter how legally dubious, to reshape the committee.

The Trump administration’s efforts in recent months to challenge the institutional norms regarding the Fed are “like the raptors in the first ‘Jurassic Park’ movie testing the fences to see where the electricity was weak,” said Blake Gwinn, a rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “They’re trying different avenues…. The moat seems to have held up so far. I’m not saying it will forever.”

Yet for all the focus on who sits in the chair, the economy could ultimately decide the matter.

There is a reason the hawks have dug in. “We’ve had five consecutive years of missing the Fed’s inflation target on the high side,” Clarida said. “That’s a factor which weighs on people.” No new chair can change that.

On the other hand, the hawkish resistance that has defined recent meetings could melt away—not because of anything Trump or a new chair does, but because poor employment data leaves the committee little choice.

On Wednesday, Powell bluntly observed that recent employment reports have likely overstated tepid gains. After regular revisions to initial surveys are completed, job gains since April could be erased.

There are rumblings that the “slow to hire, slow to fire” job-market equilibrium over recent years might be shifting. Job growth apart from healthcare has been negative, on average, for the past six months, said Mericle, the Goldman economist.

“The challenging question is, What will the labor market in particular do?” he said. He hears from more executives that they or their peers are working on plans to cut back on staff. “There is a fair bit of chatter about layoffs,” he added.

Powell has three more meetings as chair before his successor takes over. By then, the data might force his hand—or leave the decision, unresolved, to whoever comes next. If the economy does open the door for the rate cuts Trump badly wants, there is a good chance it will do so by weakening in ways no president would welcome.