Early premarket gappers
Gapping up: GLUU +6.2%, HAS +5.9%, GOLD +4.7%, CNHI +4.4%, SDRL +3.8%, HMY +2.6%, AU +2.1%, AG +2.1%, MUX +2%, INFY +1.5%, ABX +1.3%, TI +1.2%, GDX +1.1%, BCS +1.1%, PAAS +1%, AXP +1%, FDX +0.9%, FCX +0.9%, NEM +0.9%
Gapping down: TIF -6.8%, STM -1.8%, NVO -1.5%, IP -1.4%, RBS -1.4%, ATW -1.2%, GFI -1.1%, TEVA -1%, CS -1%, BBVA -0.9%, NAT -0.8%, DB -0.6%, CNA -0.5%
Criteo is paying $250 million to buy e-commerce ad firm HookLogic
Like Google product listing ads, but for e-commerce sites.
HookLogic, a startup that helps consumer brands place ads on e-commerce sites, has agreed to sell for $250 million to publicly traded ad-tech firm Criteo.
HookLogic works with retailers like Walmart, Target, Costco and Best Buy to sell sponsored ad placements on their web pages when shoppers search for a product on their sites. Consumer brands bid to place these cost-per-click ads across HookLogic’s network of e-commerce sites.
Whereas retailers buy Google Product Listing Ads to drive traffic to their sites, brands buy HookLogic ads to drive traffic to their specific products within an e-commerce site. HookLogic shares the ad revenue it collects with the e-commerce sites it partners with.
In an investor slide presentation, Criteo said it believes the deal will help it acquire new consumer-brand advertising customers that currently do business with HookLogic. Criteo also expects to help HookLogic expand the number of retailer websites on which it can place ads.
HookLogic expects to record gross revenue of $130 million in 2016, according to the investor presentation, more than double last year’s total. HookLogic CEO Jonathan Opdyke and his exec team will join Criteo in the deal.
The privately held company had raised around $40 million in venture funding from firms like Bain Capital Ventures, Fung Capital USA, Intel Capital and Mousse Partners. The deal is expected to be finalized in the fourth quarter of this year.
Holding Companies Report - Makor’s monitor
Good morning,
Please find attached our holding companies report that includes anupdated table of discounts to NAVs based on Feb 3 ,2017 closing prices.
Ahead of 4Q earnings season we take profit in the following trades:
RWE/Innogy - RWE/Innogy - On our Jan 17 report we recommend to start building a position of Short RWE/Long Innogy pro rata of the capital structure. Since then the spread almost doubled and widened from 10% to its current level of 18.7%. On the back of the spread widening and ahead of FY16 annual release (March 14, 2017) and the expected ruling on the NFT case, we recommend to take ~9% profit from this trade.
Unipol Gruppo/Unipol Sai – The spread continued its positive momentum of the last few weeks and tightened by another 2.4% to its current level of 28.4%. We note that the spread is now trading ~9% below its December high of 37%. We recommend to take profit ahead of FY16 preliminary results due on Friday Feb 10, 2017.
Renault/Nissan – this trade has also been one of our top picks with Renault spread tightening by another 2.6%. it is now trading at 18.4%, the lowest level of the past 6m and down from peak level of 30%+ seen in September. The company will release FY16 results on Friday Feb 10, 2017.
LVMH/CDI: the spread widened by 3.0% to its current level of 11.8%. We continue to like the level of the spread which is still trading ~3% below the last 12m average. LVMH and Dior will release 4Q results on Wednesday (Feb 9, 2017) and we will update our NAV and recommendation following results.
Full report attached!
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Asia Mid-Session Market Update: China Caixin Services PMI edges lower; Australia retail sales disappoint ahead of tomorrow's RBA decision
***Friday US markets on close: Dow +0.9%, S&P500 +0.7%, Nasdaq +0.5%***
- Best Sector in S&P500: Financials
- Worst Sector in S&P500: Basic Materials
- Biggest gainers: MTD +6.7%; M +6.4%; MS +5.5%
- Biggest losers: HBI -16.4%; FCX -5.8%; CMG -4.5%
- At the close: VIX 11.0 (-1.0pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.20% (flat), 10-yr 2.49% (+2bps), 30-yr 3.11% (+3bps)
***Weekend US/EU Corporate Headlines***
- Dow and DuPont to offer sale of R&D capability to ease antitrust concerns - FT
- Board Unanimously Rejects Unsolicited Proposal from Frontline Ltd.
***Politics***
- (US) Defense Secretary Mattis: not considering increasing US forces in the Middle East in response to Iran's misbehavior, but US will not ignore Iran's activities
- (US) Homeland Security has "suspended any and all actions" related to implementing Pres Trump's immigration ban on 7 Muslim-majority countries
- (US) President Trump: Will not attend May meeting with NATO leaders in Europe
***Key economic data:***
- (CN) CHINA JAN CAIXIN PMI SERVICES: 53.1 V 53.4 PRIOR (first sequential decline in 4 months)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC RETAIL SALES M/M: -0.1% (First m/m decline since Aug 2015) V 0.3%E; Q4 Q/Q: 0.9% V 0.9%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS M/M: 4.0% (2-year high) V -2.2% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN DEC LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: 0.1% V 0.4%E ; REAL EARNINGS (EX-INFLATION) Y/Y: -0.4% V 0.0% PRIOR; 2016: 0.5% (biggest increase since 2010)
***Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press***
-Asian markets tracking the Friday rally on Wall St, where low wage growth component of the monthly jobs data eases the pressure on the Fed to deliver on its promise of higher rates in the most immediate term; Australia markets underperforming as commodity prices retreat.
- Political standoff in the US between the DOJ and the Courts remains tense after a Washington State judge temporarily blocked the administration's travel ban and Homeland Security dept suspended all implementation; White House plans to appeal the order.
-China Jan Caixin services PMI eased for the first time in 4 months after hitting a multi-month high in Dec. Economists noted the contrast of employment components in manufacturing vs services, with the former reducing employment and the latter hiring faster. Rising input prices were also cited, along with expectations of decelerating economy after Q1 given decreasing propensity for restocking.
- Ahead of tomorrow's RBA decision, where expectations are largely for a rate hold, today's Australia retail sales were disappointing registering first sequential decline in over a year. Some economists see that as a one-off given some recent liquidation activity in the industry, others expect the reduced activity to give RBA pause while also monitoring the price developments.
- Japan wage growth slowed in December, though 2016 wage inflation was still the highest since 2010.
China
- (CN) China State Researcher Baoliang: China should assess impact of President Donald Trump’s economic policies and guard against forex market volatility and capital outflows - Chinese press
- (CN) China should raise central fiscal deficit to 3.5% of GDP - Chinese press
- (CN) China Foreign Min Lu Kang: US should stop "making wrong remarks" about security in the South China Sea - press
Australia/New Zealand:
- (AU) JPMorgan economist: Weakness in Australia retail data was heavily concentrated in households good retailing, which may be due to liquidation sales of a major Australian hardware/home improvement retailer - SMH
- (NZ) JPMorgan: RBNZ policy statement this week may come across as hawkish as it trumpets recent return of inflation above 1% as evidence price pressure is picking up - press
***Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:00ET)***
- Nikkei +0.2%, Hang Seng +0.6%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%, ASX200 -0.1%, Kospi +0.2%
- Equity Futures: S&P500 flat; Nasdaq flat, Dax flat, FTSE100 -0.1%
***FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:00ET)***
- EUR 1.0770-1.0790; JPY 112.20-112.70; AUD 0.7655-0.7685; NZD 0.7295-0.7305; GBP 1.2475-1.2500
- Apr Gold +0.4% at 1,225/oz; Mar Crude Oil +0.4% at $54.03/brl; Mar Copper +0.7% at $2.64/lb
- SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 3.3 tonnes to 814.5 tonnes; 3rd straight increase; Highest since Dec 31st
- (AU) Australia Port Hedland Jan Iron Ore Exports 40.3Mt v 43.9Mt m/m, +19% y/y
- (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.8606 V 6.8556 PRIOR; weakest Yuan setting since Jan 20th
- (CN) PBOC skips reverse repo operations v CNY50B on Feb 2nd and raising all offer yields by 10bps
- (KR) South Korea sells 3-yr govt bonds; avg yield 1.655%
***Asia equities / Notables / movers***
- 7267.JP Honda: Reports 9-month Net ¥521B v ¥438B y/y, Op Profit ¥703B v ¥567B y/y, Rev ¥10.24T v ¥10.94T y/y; +2.0%
- 5214.jp Nippon Electric: CLSA Raised 5214.JP to Outperform from Underperform; +6.1%
- 7270.JP Fuji Heavy May report FY16/17 op profit of ¥410B, -28% y/y but above ¥373B prior forecast - Nikkei; -0.6%
- NAB.AU NAB: Q1 trading statement; +0.8%
- IGO.AU Independence Group: Credit Suisse Raised IGO.AU to Outperform from Neutral; +1.8%
- DUE.AU Duet: Establishes A$150B debt facility with Westpac; -1.5%
- AWE.AU AWE: Macquarie cut; -1.7%
- 338.HK Sinopec Shanghai: Nomura cut; -1.0%
- 610.HK Wai Kee Holdings: Guides FY16 net profit at least +50% y/y; +5.2%
- 240.HK Build King Holdings; Guides FY16 net profit at least +50% y/y; +11.3%
- 149.HK China Agri Products: Profit warning; -24.6%
The future belongs to the media and tech companies that can harness 5G
Next-generation media, meet next-gen branding, advertising and experiences at lightning speed.
If the future of mobile is video and the future of video is mobile, how does that exactly happen — and is it good for people, brands and everyone’s experience?
It’s a big question, but it’s a key question on everyone’s mind as we consider AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner. Are we seeing a watershed moment of the future of in- and out-of-home media consumption, the promise of addressable experiences, next-generation advertising and Internet of Things connectivity? Or not?
When I was at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona last February, I wrote a Voices essay for Recode that highlighted five key technology and device trends that would impact marketers and digital and traditional media companies quickly. One of them was the emergence of 5G technology.
The revenue and growth potential of combining high-speed video with mobile portability and unique ID-targeting capabilities will incentivize every media and wireless company to get into the 5G game — and quickly.
5G is essentially broadband-like speeds anywhere you go. The difference in speed between 4G LTE and 5G in the demos I saw on the showroom floor blew me away. It was not a small difference — it was a four- to five-second difference in speed. This makes streaming and downloading large video files a piece of cake and suddenly opens the door to video consumption virtually anywhere and everywhere, on any device, without a broadband connection. This is a game-changer, because more than 60 percent of tablet or video viewing today is still in the home, over broadband.
Now, the infrastructure and capex investments required for 5G are, no doubt, large. The telcos will need to invest like never before. But, given a new White House administration and the houses of Congress seem ready to ease a tight telco regulatory environment, it’s likely that the infrastructure investment will be there. And, no doubt, the revenue and growth potential of combining high-speed video with mobile portability and unique ID-targeting capabilities will incentivize every media and wireless company to get into this game, and quickly.
As my friends at MoffettNathanson Research point out, the federal government treating AT&T and Verizon more like the large digital companies versus the old telecom companies is a game-changer. It clears the way for some very interesting times ahead, and a major push into the advertising and marketing sectors by companies ready to change targeting, data and viewing. When you add the promise of data-rich targeting at the unique ID level (devices, not cookies) and addressable advertising-monetization potential, it all gets very interesting.
But what else is game-changed ?
When video is delivered faster and faster, a person’s internet experience gets better and better. Some 38 percent of people say they use ad blockers because their experience is slowed down and everything takes too long to load. Will ad blockers be needed as much when everything speeds up?
Distributors who have had a traditional lock on content and content creators will start to reshuffle: AT&T, Comcast’s NBCU or Amazon become as important as ABC and Facebook in aggregating audiences and matching advertisers to targets who are likely to watch, click, shop and buy. We will see more consolidation, as the most powerful, best distributors who offer the best mobile experience separate themselves from those who do not have truly cross-screen, device-to-device portability and ease of use.
The advent of the Internet of Things is coming faster than anyone thinks. IoT (sensors and devices) is on pace to replace mobile phones as the most connected device by 2018, growing at more than 20 percent annually. Cellular connects are expected to jump from 400 million to 1.5 billion devices by 2021, according to Ericsson. All these devices need faster and faster speeds to operate more deeply and more powerfully for people, their cars, their homes and their lives. It will have profound impact on how much data is used in-home and out of home, and will eventually upend the advertising ecosystem. If you are having trouble producing creative in a pop-up or banner ad, how exactly do you do it with an Alexa “voice command” or on your digital thermostat?
The e-commerce and media journey, already folding over themselves, truly collapse. The ability to “watch and click,” or “view and buy,” or “speak and order” in the same experience becomes real. The opportunity to create truly addressable content, advertising and commerce experiences could dramatically change the business models of YouTube, Netflix or Facebook. Amazon is already working on this, and it remains to be seen if they can truly integrate Prime shopping, Video and Alexa. It also gives Comcast NBCU or a future AT&T + Time Warner the incentive to reinvent their business and use data to make advertising and content better and more relevant to targeted groups of people.
The future belongs to the bold, as disruption is all around us. And it belongs to the media and technology companies that can harness 5G, easy-connect internet in and out of the home, and an ever-increasing array of targeted, addressable and commerce experiences that are mobile and cross-screen.
Laura Desmond was chief revenue officer of Publicis Groupe and CEO of Starcom Mediavest Group, the No. 1 media agency brand globally for five straight years under her leadership. She worked with some of the biggest and most successful marketers worldwide, including Samsung, Coca-Cola and Visa, and a host of emerging online consumer brands such as Twitter, Airbnb and Spotify. In her work, Desmond has forged a new breed of partnerships with brands like Google, Acxiom, Tencent and Facebook. A past chair of the Advertising Council, she also serves on the board of directors of Adobe Systems. Reach her @LBDesmond.
Weekly Performance
Dow -0.11% S&P +0.12% Nasdaq +0.11% Russell +0.52% Mexico -0.41% (+2.15% in $) Brazil -1.64% (-1.07% in $) EuroStoxx -0.91% FTSE +0.05% CAC -0.30% DAX -1.38% Ibex -0.44% MIB -1.10% SMI -0.34% Nikkei -2.82% (-0.67% in $) Hang Seng +0.35% CSI +0.29% Shanghai +0.55%
US Stock indices dipped early in the week, as the world reacted to President Trump firing out a 90-day ban on travelers from seven Muslim-majority countries in the name of security. The poorly explained order created confusion and concern in the international and business communities and sparked protests at US airports. As the furor died down, stocks finished the week on a high after a string of generally robust economic data and action from Washington aimed at reducing regulation. On Wednesday, Congress repealed regulations on the coal industry and on Friday President Trump signed an executive order designed to scale back Dodd-Frank legislation. Higher than expected GDP helped prop up the Euro against most major currencies. Stock markets returned to rally mode late in the week, reacting positively to the latest read on the US jobs market on Friday. For the week, the S&P500 rose 0.1%, the Nasdaq added 0.1%, and the DJIA lost 0.1%.
Macro :
- Fed’s Williams Sees Some Arguments to Raise Rates in March
- Brevan Howard Starts 2017 With a Loss in Its Main Hedge Fund
- London Bankers Said to Be Spurning French Overtures: Telegraph
- Attention U.S. Trade Warriors: Germany's Surplus is on the Wane
- Paul Singer's Elliott: 'There is a deep underlying complacency which we think permeates global financial markets'
Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Boeing: License to Sell Jets to Iran Not Affected by Sanctions
- AIR FP : Leonardo-Finmeccanica talks with Airbus over sale of 25% stake in MBDA stall
- AAF FP : Alain Afflelou Suspends IPO Project Due to Market Weakness
- MO US : Altria Most Often Mentioned in 2017 U.S. M&A Desk Survey
- SPR GY : Axel Springer Seeks to Expand Upday Service to 16 Countries: FT
- BARC LN : Barclays Forms Administrative Unit in Ring-Fencing Change: Rtrs
- BCP PL : Banco Comercial Portugues Says Rights Offer Was Fully Subscribed
- BIM FP : BioMerieux Claims Hologic Infringes Patents for HIV-1 Tests
- BMW GY : BMW Recalls 230,000 Vehicles That May Have Takata Airbag Parts
- BMPS IM : Monte Paschi Sells Merchant Acquiring at Enterprise Value EU520m
- CPI LN : Capita Probed on Ankle-Tag Corruption Claims; 14 Arrested: Sun
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank SREP Gives Sufficient Buffer to MDA Trigger: Fitch
- DBHN GY : Deutsche Bahn CEO to Be Named Shortly, Transport Minister Says
- EDF FP : Moorside nuclear plant braced for potential Toshiba pullout - FT
- EDF FP : France’s Next President Said to Face $3 Billion Nuclear Hangover
- FCA IM : Maserati Recalls 39,381 Cars for Faulty Seat-Wiring Harness
- G IM : Generali May Accelerate Business Plan as Intesa Defense: Sole
- JD US : Walmart discloses passive stake increased to 12.1% (up from 10.8% in Oct) - 13G/A filing
- JNJ US : Lawsuit claims JNJ breast implants leaked causing medical problems
- LHA GY : Lufthansa Considering New Airline for Long-Haul Routes: Spiegel
- NEM GY : Nemetschek Has EU200m for Acquisitions, Euro am Sonntag Says
- NDA SS : Nordea Explores Selling Capital Relief Deals to Other Banks
- OMV AV : OMV Takes Over Oil Production Stakes in Libya From Oxy: NOC
- PST IM : Poste Italiane Ready to Keep 80% Payout Target, Sole Reports
- PUB FP : Publicis Won’t Suffer From Trump Pro-U.S. Action, Levy Tells JDD
- RBS LN : RBS Said to Pay GBP340m, Lloyds GBP390m in 2016 Bonuses: Sky
- RBS LN : RBS May Face Further Delay to Williams & Glyn Sale: Telegraph
- RB/ LN : Mead Johnson sale to Reckitt Benckiser may be signed off this week
- UHR VX : Swatch CEO Says Belenos IPO Not a Topic in Next 2 Years: FuW
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia 4Q Revenue EU5.1b; Est. EU5b, Tel. Italia Expects Rev., Domestic Ebitda to Keep Growing
- TIT IM : Oi Adviser Pitches Board on Debt Swap for Up to 60% Stake (1)
- UBSG VX : UBS Swiss Head Says Unit’s Profit Has Probably Peaked: SZ
- UCG IM : UniCredit Reaches Accord on Voluntary Layoffs, Hirings: Unions
- VOLVB SS : Volvo Said to Work With Rothschild on Defense Unit Sale
- VOW3 GY : Volkswagen Sued for Diesel Cheating by First Large Client
- VOW3 GY : VW’s Seat to Announce New SUV Model, Heilbronner Stimme Reports
Toshiba seeking financial aid for itself from potential investors in to-be-formed chip unit - reports (translated)
Toshiba Corp. [TYO: 6502], which is selecting potential investors for a to-be-formed memory-chip subsidiary, is also seeking financial assistance from those investor candidates for Toshiba itself, according to Japanese media reports.
Toshiba is considering plans to ask the potential investors for the new chip subsidiary, which will be formed in a spin off of Toshiba's semiconductor business, to purchase Toshiba's preferred shares, or to make investment in other businesses of the company, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported, without citing sources.
Purchasers of the preferred shares will have rights to convert the preferred shares into shares of the to-be-formed chip subsidiary, which should be more attractive to investors than direct investment into Toshiba itself, the Kyodo News service reported.
This way, Toshiba is planning to raise about JPY 300bn (USD 2.65bn) by the end of March, the Kyodo News report said, without citing sources.
In a related development, the sale process for a little less than 20% stake in the to-be-formed chip company commenced on 3 February, with Toshiba expecting to generate a profit of at least JPY 200bn from the sale, the Asahi Shimbun reported, without citing sources.
Link to original source (Yomiuri Shimbun)
Link to original source (Kyodo News)