Afternoon optimism outweighed morning caution on Tuesday as investors pushed the major averages to fresh record highs. The Dow (+0.5%) led the advance while the S&P 500 (+0.4%) and the the Nasdaq (+0.3%) closed just a tick behind.
Markets were in wait-and-see mode leading up to Fed Chair Yellen's semiannual monetary policy report. Ms. Yellen did not raise any eyebrows in her prepared statement, but she did provide some interesting insight during the Q&A session that followed.
Specifically, Senator Toomey asked Chair Yellen why the Fed didn't really bump up its growth projections at all at the December meeting when many other bodies, like the IMF, have bumped up their 2017 growth prospects based on a belief that the implementation of fiscal stimulus in the U.S. will have a positive effect on growth. Ms. Yellen responded by saying that most of her colleagues refrained from doing so because they wanted greater clarity on the timing, scope, and composition of any fiscal changes before making assumptions about the growth outlook.
That's an important revelation because the Fed, without the benefit of knowing what fiscal changes will look like, still projected three rate hikes in 2017 at the December meeting. That forecast, then, is based on its view of how the economy will evolve without -- at the Fed Chair's admission -- the benefit of any fiscal stimulus.
The fed funds future market still projects the next FOMC rate hike to occur in June with an implied probability of 70.7% (from 65.4% yesterday). The implied probability of a March rate hike has also ticked up following today's monetary policy report, but it remains relatively low at 17.7% (from 13.3% yesterday).
Treasuries retreated following the Fed Chair's testimony, while the stock market waited until after the Q&A session to make its expedition into the green. Financials (+1.2%) led the equity market's advance, profiting from the uptick in interest rates. The benchmark 10-yr yield finished its trading session four basis points higher at 2.47%.
The health care space (+0.7%) also finished Tuesday solidly higher following a couple of broken large-cap mergers. Aetna (AET 125.81, +3.76) and Humana (HUM 205.97, -0.73) announced a mutual agreement to terminate their proposed merger this morning. Then, in the afternoon session, Cigna (CI 146.68, +0.83) confirmed the termination of its agreement and plan of merger with Anthem (ANTM 163.32, -0.20). Additionally, CI announced that it has filed a lawsuit against ANTM.
Consumer discretionary (+0.6%) also outpaced the benchmark index, while technology (+0.3%) underperformed the broader market. The consumer discretionary sector received a nice bump from General Motors (GM 37.24, +1.72) after French automaker Peugeot confirmed that it is currently in talks with GM regarding a potential acquisition of GM's Opel brand. Shares of General Motors jumped 4.8% in the wake of the news.
Lightly-weighted sectors populated the bottom of today's leaderboard with utilities (-0.7%), real estate (-0.5%), and telecom services (-0.1%) all closing Tuesday lower. Rate-sensitive utilities' last place finish was secured by the uptick in interest rates following Fed Chair Yellen's testimony.
Today's economic data was limited to January PPI:
Wednesday will see a slew of economic reports including MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 7:00 ET, January CPI (consensus 0.3%), January Retail Sales (consensus 0.1%), and February Empire Manufacturing (consensus 7.0) at 8:30 ET, January Industrial Production (consensus 0.0%) and Capacity Utilization (consensus 75.5%) at 9:15 ET, December Business Inventories (consensus 0.4%) and February NAHB Housing Market Index (consensus 68) at 10:00 ET, and December Net Long-Term TIC Flows at 16:00 ET.
- Nasdaq Composite +7.4% YTD
- S&P 500 +4.4% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +3.8% YTD
- Russell 2000 +2.9% YTD