>>> Oil : GS & MS - Interesting notes - see attached

GS : Big Oils: Valuation vs. volatility disconnect
Looking for undervalued resilience among oil price uncertainty
Undervalued resilience in Big Oils: TOTAL and CVX stand out
Mega-projects delivery (Top Projects) and short-cycle production (shale) could lead to an oversupplied oil market in 2018-19. OPEC’s dilemma of lower prices vs. lower market share also adds to market uncertainty (see OPEC: To cut or not to cut, that is the question, March 21, 2017). In this uncertain environment, we believe that resilience is key to stock-picking and we focus on three metrics to screen our Big Oils coverage: cash flow volatility, free cash flow and Top Projects delivery. TOTAL and CVX stand out with low volatility and c.20% of unproductive capital employed coming onstream in the next 24 months.

MS : Oil : The Signal vs The Noise
The lack of US crude inventory draws has been the dominant concern during recent investor meetings. However, examining less visible - but still reported - inventories shows ~72 mln bbl of total oil draws globally since end-Jan. We expect this to gain momentum and see price risks skewed positively.

Three concerns have been front and centre during recent investor meetings across Europe and the US: 
1) Why are US crude stocks building whilst the market is supposed to be tightening? 
2) how fast will shale production rebound given the recent surge in the oil-directed rig count? And 
3) Will OPEC extend its production cuts beyond the end of May?

FT : Investors accelerate buying of European equities

Investors accelerate buying of European equities
Stronger data help weekly fund inflows into region hit highest level in more than a year

Investors are flocking back to European equities and propelling a rally across continental stock markets as money managers downplay fears around the upcoming French elections and fallout from Brexit.

The shift — which follows a torrid 2016 when investors pulled roughly $100bn from the asset class — has been driven by hopes of a synchronised global economic expansion accelerating.

European stock fund managers received $1.5bn in the week to March 29, the largest weekly addition in more than a year, according to fund flows tracked by EPFR. Inflows to emerging market stock funds, which have rebounded strongly as commodity prices have risen, eclipsed $10bn for the year in the week to March 29.

In contrast, US stock funds suffered a second consecutive week of outflows as investors express concern over high valuations and whether the Trump administration can reach agreement with Congress over tax reform and fiscal spending plans.

“We have seen a broadening out of global growth and that upside risk has manifested itself in Europe and emerging markets,” said Ben Mandel, a strategist with JPMorgan Asset Management. “If the US is your high quality defensive market and you see some allocation away from that, it is a sign people are less concerned about downside risk and need less ballast in their portfolios.”

European share prices have outperformed the broad US market since the start of January, with the Eurofirst 300 up 6.4 per cent in US dollar terms and Spain’s Ibex advancing 12.6 per cent and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 7.4 per cent. The S&P 500 has gained 5.8 per cent for the year.

EPFR said at the single country and asset class levels, flows into Germany and Italy Equity Funds hit 66- and 72-week highs respectively in late March. Italy equity funds recorded their largest inflow since the fourth quarter of 2015.

Strengthening economic data — including improving manufacturing and consumer sentiment, a six-year high in eurozone purchasing manager indices and easier global financial conditions — have renewed investor confidence in the global outlook and ability for markets to absorb shocks.

“When you look at the data coming out of Europe continuing to improve, fear subsiding . . . it definitely looks like there are opportunities brewing internationally,” said Jeff Carbone, managing partner and founding member at Cornerstone Financial Partners.

Inflows to Europe have been dominated by institutional investors, who have added more than $9bn to eurozone funds this year. Retail investors have offset much of that, redeeming $7bn from the asset class.

“In the US expectations were too rosy and markets needed to re-price that and in Europe expectations were too gloomy and markets needed to reprice that,” said David Schiegoleit, a managing director at US Bank Wealth Management.

The shift into Europe is still nascent, with outflows last year driven by worries over political risk and Italian banks posing a systemic risk to the eurozone financial system.

However, investor sentiment has benefited from recent French election polls that have given the edge to independent centrist Emmanuel Macron over Marine Le Pen, the far-right National Front candidate. That has also helped push market measures of volatility in European stock markets back towards the lows of the year. 

That prospect of an acceleration in growth has buoyed emerging market stocks and bonds, with MSCI’s emerging market index up more than 12 per cent for the year.

Japan equity funds finished the first quarter on a solid note, attracting another inflow in excess of $2bn said EPFR. However, both the Nikkei 225 and Topix benchmarks ended the first quarter in negative territory for the year as a firmer yen has pressured exporters.

Faster growth technology stocks in the US have also benefited, outpacing all other sectors in the S&P 500 in 2017. 

While the S&P 500 remains higher for the year and US stock inflows are still substantially positive since the election, signs have emerged of some investor pull back. Small-capitalisation stock funds, which tend to be more closely affected by US growth than their large-cap peers, recorded only their third weekly outflow of the year in the week to March 29. 

EPFR said: “There was no let-up in the rotation from active management to ETFs: among actively managed sub-groups, only mid-cap value funds attracted any fresh money.”

The Guardian : UK raids as Dutch prosecutors launch tax evasion investigation

UK raids as Dutch prosecutors launch tax evasion investigation
Gold bar and paintings seized as swoops also take place in Germany, France and Australia after tip-off about Swiss bank

Dutch investigators have seized paintings, a gold bar and jewellery and arrested two people as part of a international hunt for tax evaders, after receiving a tip-off about 55,000 suspect accounts at a Swiss bank.

The country’s office for financial crimes prosecution (FIOD) said the coordinated raids began on Thursday in the Netherlands, UK, Germany, France and Australia.

The Dutch are “investigating dozens of people who are suspected of tax fraud and money-laundering”, the prosecutors said in a statement.

Suspects deposited money in an unidentified Swiss bank and did not disclose that to authorities, the statement said.

Spokeswoman Wietske Vissers said the investigation would “continue for days and weeks” across the various countries. The Netherlands is investing 3,800 Dutch leads.

The FIOD said it seized administrative records as well as the contents of bank accounts, jewellery, a luxury car, expensive paintings and a gold bar from houses in The Hague, Hoofddorp, Zwolle and the municipality of Venlo in the Netherlands.

The people arrested, one in The Hague and one in Hoofddorp, were not identified.

Vissers referred questions about investigations in the other countries to their national police and to Eurojust, the EU agency that coordinates cross-border prosecutions, for further information.

Eurojust could not immediately be reached for comment.

The Dutch government has passed information to the other countries about 55,000 suspect accounts at the bank.

Vissers said she would not publicly disclose the name of the Swiss bank involved.

Cash.ch : raid at Credit Suisse - confiscated paintings, gold and money

raid at Credit Suisse - confiscated paintings, gold and money
Due to the suspicion of tax fraud, raids have been carried out in Credit Suisse branches in London, Paris and Amsterdam.

A media report had previously referred to raids in several countries, involving some 55,000 suspicious accounts.

According to the Reuters news agency, the Dutch authorities said Friday that the background for the raids was a clue to secret bank accounts at a Swiss bank. Several holders of 3800 accounts with connections to the Netherlands were affected.

Confiscated assets
In the Netherlands, Great Britain, Germany, France and Australia, coordinated searches began on Thursday. Paintings, gold bars, cash and other assets in millions were confiscated, an official spokeswoman said.

Credit Suisse informed on Friday morning, in response to the media itself, "visits to local authorities" in London, Paris and Amsterdam. "We are working together with the authorities," says the financial institute.

Since 2013, Credit Suisse has been applying the withholding tax agreement between Switzerland and Great Britain, it says. The voluntary tax-exemption programs of the Netherlands and France had also been implemented and relationships with non-tax-compliant customers had been terminated.

Credit Suisse has also implemented the automatic information exchange, which will enter into force in April 2017, for its European locations. Credit Suisse continues to pursue a strategy of complete tax compliance, the Institute stressed.

>>> Shawbrook recommends to reject 330p per share cash offer by Pollen Street an

Shawbrook recommends to reject 330p per share cash offer by Pollen Street and BC Partners
31 MAR 2017
Shawbrook Group PLC [SHAW:LSE] ("Shawbrook") notes the announcement released by Pollen Street Capital Limited ("Pollen Street") and BC Partners LLP ("BC Partners") (together, the "Consortium") of an offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Shawbrook to be made by a new company, Marlin Bidco Limited, jointly owned by funds managed or advised by Pollen Street and BC Partners (the "Offer").

Under the terms of the Offer, Shawbrook shareholders would receive 330 pence per Shawbrook share in cash. In addition, subject to approval by Shawbrook shareholders at Shawbrook's AGM on 6 June 2017, Shawbrook shareholders would be entitled to retain the final dividend of 2.7 pence per Shawbrook share for the year ended 31 December 2016, announced by Shawbrook at its results on 7 March 2017.

The Offer price has not changed from the proposed terms that were previously rejected by the Board of Shawbrook on 6 March 2017. However, the Board notes the change in transaction structure from a scheme of arrangement to a takeover offer with an acceptance condition of 50 per cent plus one share.

The Board has concluded that it is not able to recommend the Offer. The Board therefore recommends that shareholders reject the Offer. The Board will in due course be communicating with shareholders to set out its views in more detail.

The Board is being advised by BofA Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs International in respect of the Offer.

Funds managed or advised by Pollen Street currently hold approximately 38.8% of the issued share capital of Shawbrook and Lindsey McMurray serves as the representative director of Pollen Street on the Board of Shawbrook. Accordingly, Lindsey McMurray has not been involved in the Board's consideration of the Offer.