GS : Big Oils: Valuation vs. volatility disconnectLooking for undervalued resilience among oil price uncertaintyUndervalued resilience in Big Oils: TOTAL and CVX stand outMega-projects delivery (Top Projects) and short-cycle production (shale) could lead to an oversupplied oil market in 2018-19. OPEC’s dilemma of lower prices vs. lower market share also adds to market uncertainty (see OPEC: To cut or not to cut, that is the question, March 21, 2017). In this uncertain environment, we believe that resilience is key to stock-picking and we focus on three metrics to screen our Big Oils coverage: cash flow volatility, free cash flow and Top Projects delivery. TOTAL and CVX stand out with low volatility and c.20% of unproductive capital employed coming onstream in the next 24 months.MS : Oil : The Signal vs The NoiseThe lack of US crude inventory draws has been the dominant concern during recent investor meetings. However, examining less visible - but still reported - inventories shows ~72 mln bbl of total oil draws globally since end-Jan. We expect this to gain momentum and see price risks skewed positively.Three concerns have been front and centre during recent investor meetings across Europe and the US:1) Why are US crude stocks building whilst the market is supposed to be tightening?2) how fast will shale production rebound given the recent surge in the oil-directed rig count? And3) Will OPEC extend its production cuts beyond the end of May?