(ZH) 2 Charts Show How Close The U.S. Is To Healthcare Collapse

2 Charts Show How Close The U.S. Is To Healthcare Collapse


We’re even less healthy overall.
The chart below shows the bad news. The horizontal axis is years of life expectancy. The vertical axis is per capita healthcare spending. Ideally, you want to be in the lower right quadrant. That means your population has a relatively high life expectancy and relatively low healthcare spending.
France, Japan, Spain, Chile, and a bunch of others are clustered in that area. Their money buys more health than ours does.

The United States is in the upper right, which shows that our per-person healthcare spending is significantly higher than that of the other OECD countries. Switzerland is a distant second place. Our extra spending doesn’t help us live longer. We actually die a little earlier than our peers in Japan and most of Europe.
You can quibble over details in this data, but the broad facts are inescapable. We spend too much on healthcare relative to the health it buys us. As long as that is the case, no reform plan will work.
Did Obamacare cause this? No. It goes way back. Here’s another graphic showing the changes over time.
You can see that the United States began diverging from other developed countries back in the 1980s. The gap has only grown wider since then.
Stranger yet, we spend all this extra money yet still leave millions of low-income citizens with little or no access to healthcare. Kaiser Family Foundation says some 2.5 million working Americans make too much to qualify for Medicaid, but not enough to receive Obamacare tax credits.
Brace Yourself for the Death Spiral
I showed you that data to say this: Simply returning to pre-Obamacare conditions won’t solve the problem. Obamacare exists because the system wasn’t working and we needed something better.
Before 2014, people with preexisting conditions were simply out of luck. They couldn’t buy health insurance at any price, unless their employers offered group health, which many didn’t. This was hurting both those people and the economy at large.
Obamacare, for all its flaws, at least tried to solve the problem. It helped some people but hurt others—and now it’s reached its limits. Insurance works only if the risk pool includes enough low-spending people to offset those with expensive claims. That’s Obamacare’s core problem. The legal mandate to buy insurance hasn’t brought enough young and healthy people into the pool.
This is the “death spiral” you hear about. People with serious illnesses will buy insurance no matter what it costs. This drives up claim ratios, which then drives premiums yet higher and discourages young and healthy people from buying.
That can’t work indefinitely.

FT : Bundesbank chief Weidmann calls for end to ECB stimulus

Bundesbank chief Weidmann calls for end to ECB stimulus

Jens Weidmann isn’t convinced by the recent pullback in the eurozone’s inflation rate.

The Bundesbank president has become the latest senior German figure to call on the European Central Bank to bring an early end to its quantitative easing programme, arguing that the central bank should “take its foot off the gas” soon.

In an interview with German newspaper Die Zeit, Mr Weidmann said:

In my opinion, the point when the foot is not allowed to be left on the accelerator pedal, but is lifted slightly, is approaching.
The ECB has remained committed to buying €60bn worth of mostly government bonds each month until at least the end of this year.

Stronger growth and rising inflation across the continent had led to calls for ECB president Mario Draghi to be more confident about the currency area’s economic prospects, but Mr Draghi has stressed the fragility of recent price rises, which were driven mainly by volatile energy prices.

Data released last week appeared to support that outlook, with inflation falling sharply in March as the impact of rising oil prices eased.

However, Mr Weidmann said “the economic recovery in the euro area is robust and will continue”, which will increase pressure on prices.

>>> AAPL -1% om potential delay on iPhone 8 - Digitimes

Apple may delay new iPhone launch to October-November, says paper
EDN, April 5; Steve Shen, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 5 April 2017]
There are signs indicating that Apple may delay the launch of its next-generation iPhone to October or even November, instead of September as usual, according to a Chinese-language Economic Daily News (EDN) report.
Technical issues related to the lamination process of curved OLED panels, and the adoption of a 3D sensing system may cause the delay of the new iPhone devices, said the paper.
Market sources said that they are watching the pull-in of orders for passive components from the iPhone's supply chain to see whether production of the new iPhone devices is on track, said the paper, adding that the supply chain should begin to pull in orders for passive components such as MLCCs in June.
Major suppliers included in the iPhone supply chain include TSMC, Foxconn Electronics, Pegatron Technology, Wistron, Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE), Largan Precision, Cyntec and Yageo

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
  • WBA -1.2%
Other news:
  • UNIS -61.6% (exploring bridge financing alternatives; issued notice to employees it may permanently close two facilities if not successful in obtaining financing)
  • OHRP -19.6% (to offer shares of its common stock and warrants to purchase shares of its common stock in a public offering)
  • BNTC -5.9% (modestly pulling back following yesterday's gains)
  • QTNT -5.5% (to commence underwritten public offering of ordinary shares)
  • SCM -2.7% (plans to make a public offering of its common stock)
  • SHPG -1.4% (likely in sympathy with AZN and NVS, which were downgraded today)
Analyst comments:
  • GNRC -2.1% (downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts)
  • AZN -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS)
  • NVS -1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen)
  • AMGN -0.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies)
  • AYI -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
  • GBX +10.6%, SHLM +6.5%, LNDC +6%, MZOR +4.7%, GOL +4.3%,MON +1%
M&A news:
  • INNL +49.5% (to be acquired Gurnet Point L.P; transaction valued at up to $209 mln)
  • PNRA +13.6% (agrees to be acquired by JAB Holding Company for $315/share in cash)
  • SYT +1% (SYT and ChemChina receive approval for merger from the FTC in US and cleared by the EU, subject to conditions)
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher:
  • FCX +2.1%, BBL +2%, BHP +1.8%, RIO +1.7%, AA +1.7%, MT+1.6%, VALE +1.2%, AKS +1.1%
Select oil/gas related names showing strength:
  • WLL +2.4%, PBR +1.5%, TOT +1.1%, BP +0.9%, RIG +0.8%,RDS.A +0.6%
Other news:
  • PLUG +83.1% (Plug Power and Amazon (AMZN) reach agreement for multi-site GenKey deployments; Revenues associated with the commercial agreements are expected to be around $70 mln in 2017)
  • NEOT +41.9% (announces the USPTO issuance of a patent directed to specific methods of using LIPO-202)
  • CALI +15.8% (continued strength after surging 60% higher on Tuesday)
  • VICL +15% (enters into research collaboration agreement with AnGes)
  • CRVS +7.6% (modestly rebounding)
  • BLDP +6.8% (in sympathy with PLUG),
  • RDHL +3.6% (announces the signing of an exclusive license agreement with privately-held Entera Health for exclusive U.S. rights to EnteraGam)
  • MYGN +3.1% (publishes the third clinical validation study and second clinical utility study for its myPath Melanoma test)
  • TASR +2.8% (may be attributed to expected announcement tomorrow)
  • BWLD +2.2% (in sympathy with PNRA)
  • CMG +1.6% (in sympathy with PNRA)
  • MTCH +1.1% (Point72 Asset Management discloses 5% passive stake)
Analyst comments:
  • SRPT +4.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at SunTrust)
  • NBR +3% (upgraded to Buy at Instinet)
  • SPLS +2.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)
  • STM +2.2% (Craig Hallum out raising March/June qtr ests)
  • C +1.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette)
  • UNH +1% (initiated with Buy ratings at Deutsche Bank)
  • WFC +0.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette)
  • ALV +0.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo)

FT : Reimann family’s JAB agrees Panera Bread takeover

Reimann family’s JAB agrees Panera Bread takeover
Media-shy owner of Keurig and Krispy Kreme to spend $7.5bn on latest US deal

Germany’s billionaire Reimann family has added US bakery and sandwich chain Panera Bread to its fast-growing US food and beverages empire, after its investment company JAB Holding agreed to acquire the chain for $7.5bn.

The $315 per share all-cash deal announced on Wednesday will place Panera under the same roof as recently acquired brands Keurig Green Mountain, Peet’s Coffee and doughnut maker Krispy Kreme.

With the latest US acquisition, the Luxembourg-based conglomerate will have spent roughly $40bn on deals in the US in recent years as it seeks to challenge Nestlé, the world’s largest food company by sales, in the coffee sector.

“We strongly support Panera’s vision for the future, strategic initiatives, culture of innovation and balanced company versus franchise store mix,” said JAB chief executive Olivier Goudet.

JAB has agreed to pay a 30 per cent premium to the 30-day average stock price of Panera as of March 31, when Bloomberg News first reported that the US chain was considering a sale. The European group will also assume Panera’s $340m net debt. Panera’s shares closed at $274 on Tuesday giving it a market capitalisation of $6.2bn, but rose another 11.1 per cent in after-hours trading to $304.40.

Once the acquisition is complete, JAB will add Panera’s roughly 2,000 restaurants across the US to its already large stable of food chains and coffee houses. These include hipster coffee brands Intelligentsia and Stumptown Coffee and more mainstream chains Peet’s Coffee and Krispy Kreme. In 2015 it bought Keurig for $13.9bn, in one of its largest deals.

JAB is almost entirely owned by four of the nine adopted children of Albert Reimann, who died in 1984. He gave equal stakes in the company to his children but Wolfgang, Stefan, Renate and Matthias bought out their other siblings. According to Forbes’ billionaire list, their combined wealth is more than $16bn.

Sara Senatore, an industry analyst at Bernstein, said in a note on Tuesday that Panera was trading at a multiple of 14.8 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, while rival fast casual chains were trading at an average of 12.7 times ebitda.

When JAB bought Peet’s it did so at a multiple of 21.6 times ebitda. Restaurant Brands International, which owns Burger King and Tim Hortons, agreed a deal to buy Popeye’s Louisiana Kitchen in February at a multiple of 19.6 times ebitda.

Panera has been a leading force in developing ordering and payment technology as well as delivery services amid an increasingly tough environment for eating out in the US. Its expertise in these areas could be applied across other JAB chains, analysts have said. Nearly a quarter of all Panera orders are now placed digitally.

Its technology, coupled with a menu that focuses on personalisation and healthier foods has helped it increase profit and win market share. Foot traffic to Panera increased 1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2016 from the third quarter, behind Chick-fil-A and Starbucks.

In its most recent quarter it reported a 6.7 per cent increase in earnings per share on a 4.2 per cent rise in sales.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
Gapping up:
  • PLUG +107.7%, INNL +51.6%, VICL +22.1%, PNRA +13.2%, CALI+11.9%, LNDC +6%, GBX +5.9%, SHLM +5.7%, GOL +4.3%, BX +4.1%
  • MZOR +3.8%, CRVS +3.7%, TASR +3.5%, SDRL +2.7%, STM+2.6%, AKS +1.7%, BBL +1.6%, BHP +1.6%, VALE +1.4%, FCX+1.2%, SYT +1.1%, RIG +1.1%
Gapping down:
  • UNIS -52%, OHRP -18.2%, QTNT -5.5%, SCM -2.1%, SHPG -1.6%,AZN -1.1%, WBA -0.9%, BCS -0.8%