(CS) Global Equity Strategy : The UK: a deep dive

We find that there has been significant interest recently in UK politics, Brexit, sterling and UK equities. 
We conclude: 
1) GDP growth at 1.6% in 2018 will be modestly stronger than consensus at 1.3%, but is still likely to disappoint relative to the euro area or the US. 
2) On Brexit, our view is that there will be a transitional arrangement (95% probability), and most likely such an arrangement will last longer than two years. 
3) Changes: We take UK domestic banks to overweight from a small underweight. We finance this by taking UK life insurance to benchmark from overweight.  
We take UK housebuilders to a small underweight from benchmark.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & DOwngrades - 23rd of October 201

>>> Up
* Boliden Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse
* Generali Raised to Buy at Jefferies, PT EU17.70
* GKN Raised to Hold at Liberum, PT 300p
* SSP Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Tate & Lyle Raised to Buy at Jefferies, PT 750p

>>> Down
* GE Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley, PT $22
* Husqvarna Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux, PT SEK83
* Iberiabank Cut to Neutral at Baird, PT $78
* IWG Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse
* IWG Cut to Hold at Berenberg
* Leonteq Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse
* Ontex Cut to Hold at Bank Degroof Petercam, PT EU32
* President Energy Cut to Market Perform at BMO, PT 0.10p
* Range Resources Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan, PT $22

>>> Initiation


>>> Call
>> Sector
* U.K. LIFE COMPANIES CUT TO BENCHMARK AT CREDIT SUISSE
* U.K. HOUSEBUILDERS CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT AT CREDIT SUISSE
* U.K. DOMESTIC BANKS RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT CREDIT SUISSE

>>> Abertis sale of Hispasat to REE in final stages - report (translated)

Abertis sale of Hispasat to REE in final stages - report (translated)
23 OCT 2017
Abertis Infrastructuras [BME:ABE] is in final talks to sell to Red Electrica de Espana [BME:REE] (REE) its satellite company Hispasat, El Confidencial reported, citing sources privy to the process. The parties are aiming to close a deal before the end of October, according to the Spanish-language report.
REE will pay for Hispasat, valued at around EUR 1bn, in cash, the report went on to say. The company’s main shareholder is the Spanish state through the entity SEPI, which controls 20%.
A sale of Hispasat, a strategic asset for the Spanish estate, will ease the sale of Abertis, target of an offer from its Italian counterpart Atlantia’s [BIT:ATL] , the report added.

>>> Asian Update

Asia Mid-Session Update: Japan PM Abe re-elected; BOK Gov Lee indicates next policy move will be a rate hike

***Asia Summary***
-Asian equity markets have opened generally higher. The Nikkei 225 opened up by over 1.1%, as Japan PM Abe’s ruling coalition won a supermajority in the lower house, following Sunday’s elections. Overall, the LDP/Komeito coalition won at least 312 seats, up from 290 prior.
-Automakers, Honda and Nissan have rebounded from the declines seen on Friday’s session. At the same time, the ‘mega-banks’ in Japan are also all trading higher by over 0.7% following the election results.
-China Life has risen by over 3%, after reporting an over 90% increase in its 9-month profits, which it said was mostly driven by higher investment returns.
-Financials in South Korea are trading lower amid the declines being seen in 3-year bond yields. Following last week’s Bank of Korea (BOK) meeting , where there was a hawkish dissenter, a ruling party official said the odds of a rate hike are ‘rising’. Bank of Korea Gov Lee also told parliament that the direction for future policy is ‘rate increase’, but that the central bank did not have to respond ‘immediately’ after a US Fed rate hike. Besides this, South Korea’s government is said to be planning to hold a meeting to discuss household debt.
-Japanese tech firms are trading generally higher. Softbank has gained over 1%. Shares of Canon Inc are also trading higher ahead of its later today earnings report. Taiwan Semi has gained over 0.7%. The company is said to have received an exclusive chip order from Apple, according to a press report. Mediatek has also gained amid press speculation related to a chip order from Alibaba.
-South Korean chip makers are trading generally higher. Samsung Electronics may name a new CEO by as early as this week, according to a South Korean press report. Hynix has gained over 2%, ahead of its earnings which are due to be released on Thursday. Other Korean companies due to also report on Thursday include LG Electronics, Posco and Hyundai Motor.
-Utilities and power plant services firms in South Korea, including KEPCO Engineering & Construction, are trading lower following the release of an opinion poll showing majority support for a nuclear-phase out policy.
-In Singapore, Noble Group has declined by over 2% after saying it expects to report a loss in Q3. The company additionally disclosed the sale of its Americas oil liquids business to Vitol for $582M in net proceeds.
-Australian telecom, Telstra, has gained over 1.5%, following a favorable ruling by Australia’s competitor regulator, the ACCC.
-Hong Kong listed China Mobile has declined by over 0.3%, despite reporting y/y growth in 9-month profits and revenues. Amid this drop, the overall Hang Seng Index has pared the gains seen at the open. Sportswear retailer Li Ning has declined by over 2%, following a report that its Q2 orders declined y/y. Hong Kong-listed aluminum producer Rusal, has traded lower by over 0.5%, after issuing its Q3 production update. Railway stocks in Hong Kong are declining, as shares of Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric are lower by over 6%, as its Q3 results missed market expectations.
-USD/JPY has risen by over 0.4% following Japan’s election results, as some speculated on whether there would be any implications for stimulus efforts in Japan and BoJ Gov Kuroda, whose first term is scheduled to end April 2018. The Aussie is currently little changed ahead of Wednesday’s release of Australia’s Q3 CPI data.
-Foreign exchange traders are also expected to pay close attention to the ECB’s policy decision, which is due to be released on Thursday, Oct 26th.
-In fixed income, China is expected to hold investor meetings in Hong Kong on Oct 25th, regarding its first planned US dollar denominated bond issuance since 2004.
-In the US, there is press speculation that Cisco is near an agreement to acquire Broadsoft Inc, while in the lumber space Potlatch is said to be close to acquiring Deltic Timber in an all-stock deal. US companies due to report earnings later today include Halliburton, Hasbro, Illinois Tool Works, Kimberly-Clark, Rambus, Seagate Technology, State Street, T-Mobile US, VF Corp and Whirlpool.

***Key economic data***

- (KR) South Korea Sept PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.2% prior
- (CN) CHINA SEPT PROPERTY PRICES M/M: RISE IN 44 OUT OF 70 CITES VS 46 PRIOR; Y/Y RISE IN 67 OUT OF 70 CITIES VS 68 PRIOR
***Speakers and Press***
Japan
- (JP) Japan PM Abe’s ruling LDP/Komeito coalition wins supermajority in elections with 312 seats* or ~67.1%(vs. 290 prior)
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Oct Loan Officer Opinion Survey: Company Loan Demand Index 6 v 3 prior; Govt Loan Demand -2 v 4 prior; Household Loan Demand 8 v 2 prior
- (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Want to speed up Abenomics, with the economy as top priority
Korea
- (KR) South Korea Ruling Party Official: Bank of Korea (BOK) rate hike odds 'rising'; to meet with government to discuss household debt
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) will continue efforts to stabilize markets as volatility can rise on North Korea risks and Fed’s monetary policy normalization
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Lee: Can consider rate hike when economic recovery is 'solid' and inflation reaches target; Direction for future policy is rate increase; Need time to judge if recovery continues for rate hike - Parliamentary Comments

China/Hong Kong
- (CN) China Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Wang Menghui: property market is expected to continue stabilizing into Q4 – Xinhua
- (CN) China 69 SOEs expected to finish restructuring by December - Chinese press
Europe
- (ES) Spain PM Rajoy invokes Article 155 of the Constitution: plans to dissolve the Catalonia govt and curb its powers, and call elections within 6 months
***Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:00ET)***
- Nikkei +1.2%, Hang Seng -0.7%; Shanghai Composite +0.0%; ASX200 -0.0%, Kospi +0.0%
- Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.0%; Nasdaq100 +0.0%, Dax +0.0%; FTSE100 +0.0%

***FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:00ET)***
- EUR 1.1778-1.1751; JPY 114.10-113.66; AUD 0.7825-0.7802;NZD 0.6968-0.6931
- Dec Gold -0.2% at $1,277/oz; Dec Crude Oil +0.5% at $52.09/brl; Dec Copper -0.1% at $3.17/lb
- (AU) Australia sells A$700M in 2027 bonds, avg yield 2.8162%; bid-to-cover 3.96x
- USD/CNY *(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN REFERENCE RATE AT 6.6205 V 6.6092 PRIOR (weakest fixing since Oct 9th)
- (CN) PBoC OMO: Injects CNY200B in 7 and 14-day reverse repos v CNY80B injected prior; injects net CNY140B
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Sells KRW500B in 6-month monetary stabilization bonds, avg yield 1.59%
- (KR) South Korea sells 20-year bonds, avg yield 2.385%
- (AU) Australia buyback A$700M in March and Oct 2019 bonds

***Equities notable movers***
Australia/New Zealand
- WPP.AU Guides FY17 Net profit below prior guidance of mid-single digits growth; -11%
- VOC.AU Reports Q1 ARPU for NBN services A$62.60 v A$64.23 end of FY17; AMPU A$19.95 v A$20.26 end of FY17; To sell NZ unit, mulling sale of other assets; +1.8%
- GRR.AU Reports Q1 Iron ore pellet sales (DMT) 359.1K v 184Kt q/q, +15.4%

China/Hong Kong
- 3898.HK Reports 9-month (CNY) Net profit 1.52B v 1.89B y/y, Rev 9.53B v 9.86B y/y; -6.6%

Singapore
- NOBL.SG Guides Q3 adj Net loss S$100-50M (total net loss S$1.25-1.1B); Sells Noble Americas Corp to Vitol US for gross consideration of ~$1.42B; -4%

>>> Credit Suisse activist RBR Capital to commence talking to other shareholders

Credit Suisse activist RBR Capital to commence talking to other shareholders (translated)
22 OCT 2017
Activist investor RBR Capital Advisors is to commence talking to other shareholders in Credit Suisse [VTX:CSGN], Tagesanzeiger reported.
Asked if it is true he has the backing of 100 Credit Suisse investors, RBR Chief Rudolf Bohli told the Swiss daily he has only spoken to investors who do not currently hold CS shares, but who could acquire shares and support him. Bohli said he has not spoken to existing shareholders for legal reasons but now that his plans are in the open he will begin speaking to investors. Bohli stated he does not have to speak to all CS investors.
Asked to reveal the CS management's reaction to his plans, Bohli said it was friendly, noting that the management has one year to execute its strategy, and will need a new strategy by then at the latest.
In the interview Bohli also rejected talk that he is looking for short term profit from his investment, stating it is a serious investment.
Bohli's plans include spinning off the investment bank, the report stated. Bohli said the investment bank has 12,000 employees generating an average turnover of USD 500,000 per employee, which is not enough. Employees numbers should be halved, Bohli told the paper.

>>> What to look at this Week End - 21st & 22nd of October 2017

Weekly Performance
Dow +2% S&P +0.86% Nasdaq +0.35% Russell Brazil -0.78% (-2.26% in $) Mexico +0.32% (-0.95% in $) Nikkei +1.43% (-0.09% in $) Hang Seng +0.04% CSI +0.15% (-0.47% in $) Shanghai -0.35% (-0.97% in $) Shenzen -1.82% (-2.43% in $) EuroStoxx +0.01% FTSE -0.16% (-0.87% in $) Cac +0.39% Dax +0.39% Ibex -0.34% MIB -0.30% SMI -0.80%
The stock market advanced once again this week, notching a new record high in all five sessions, as investors digested another batch of third quarter earnings. The S&P 500 finished higher by 0.9%, while the Dow (+2.0%) did noticeably better and the Nasdaq (+0.4%) did modestly worse. For the month, the S&P 500 has added 2.2%. Speculation surrounding President Trump's Fed Chair nomination heated up this week. Current Fed Chair Janet Yellen could be appointed for another four-year term, but reports indicate that Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Stanford University economist John Taylor are the two leading candidates. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and chief economic advisor Gary Cohn are also still in the mix. Following this week's events, the CME FedWatch Tool places the chances of a December rate hike at 93.1%, up from 82.9% last week.

Macro :
- Abe Placed to Lead Japan Through 2021 After Big Election Victory
- Saudi Minister to Discuss Oil Output Cut Extension With Iraq
- Yellen Is Said to Be Back at White House, Person Familiar Says
- Watch Out Vol Sellers, Those Tails Are Getting Fatter: Macro Man
- Italy’s Rich Lombardy, Veneto Regions Hold Autonomy Votes

What to look at today :
- ACS SM : ACS to Issue Negotiable Commercial Paper of Up to EU300m
- AAPL US : Apple, Foxconn Executives Are Said to Meet Later in Oct.: Nikkei
- BAYN GY : France Asks Regulator to Study New Data on Dow Insecticides
- BMPS IM : Monte Dei Paschi Return to Stock Market Is Said Delayed: Reuters
- BMW GY : BMW Upset VW, Daimler Hid Contacts With EU on Talks: FAS
- BNN GY : Biotech Co. Brain Reaffirms Profitability Goal: Welt am Sonntag
- BT/ LN : BT May Ramp Up Operations Revamp After McKinsey Report: S. Times
- ALCLS US : Cellectis Rallies; Nomura Highlights Co. Meetings With Investors
- CSGN VX : Activist investor RBR Capital Advisors is to commence talking to other shareholders Tagesanzeiger
- EN+ IPO : Qatar Sovereign Fund Is Said to Mull Buying Stake in En+: FT
- GKN LN : GKN Eyes Plan to Split Aerospace, Automotive Ops: Sunday Times
- HEN3 GY : Henkel Seeks More U.S. Acquisitions: CEO to Welt am Sonntag
- HOT GY : Hochtief Sees EU1b in Dividend Payments From Abertis: Expansion
- ICADE FP : ICADE Nine Month Revenue EU1.15 Bln
- IFX GY : Infineon Seeks to Become Top Car-Chip Supplier: Automobilwoche
- ILD FP : France’s Niel Says Iliad Won’t Seek Sporting Rights: JDD
- NOVN VX : Novartis Treatment Granted Orphan Drug Status by FDA
- PLT IM : Parmalat Willing to Negotiate With Citi on Claim: Corriere
- P1Z GY : Patrizia Seeks More Acquisitions, CFO Tells Boersen-Zeitung
- RYA LN : Ryanair Will Continue to Engage With London Stansted ERC
- RYA LN : Ryanair Pilots Outline Proposal to Double Airline’s Pay Offer
- SECUB SS : Securitas Moves Up 3Q Results After Reports Stolen From Manager
- TSLA US : Tesla Is Said to Reach Deal to Set up Facility in Shanghai: WSJ
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia Board Approves Canal Plus Media Venture
- UBER IPO : Uber-SoftBank Deal Is Said to Be Threatened Over Terms: FT
- UMI BB : Umicore Sells Large-Area Coatings Activity, Takes EU14m Charge
- VOW3 GY : Audi To Recall 200k Cars, SUVs on Wire Melting Risk: NHTSA

WSJ : At Fidelity, New Fallout From Claims of Sexual Harassment, Bullying

At Fidelity, New Fallout From Claims of Sexual Harassment, Bullying
Employee complaints about abusive workplace conduct prompted an emergency meeting at the stock-picking unit

Fidelity Investments is moving to address a yearslong problem stemming from a range of workplace conduct, amid allegations of sexual harassment at the mutual fund giant.
The latest known fallout: Fidelity pushed longtime employee C. Robert Chow, 56 years old, to resign earlier this month, following allegations that he made inappropriate sexual comments to colleagues, according to people familiar with the matter.
A lawyer for Mr. Chow declined to comment.
The abrupt exit of the former portfolio manager, who worked most recently in an advisory unit at Fidelity, follows a report in The Wall Street Journal that Fidelity fired a star tech fund manager accused of sexual harassment.
Fidelity spokesman Vincent Loporchio said company policies “specifically prohibit harassment in any form. When allegations of these sorts are brought to our attention, we investigate them immediately and take prompt and appropriate action. We simply will not, and do not, tolerate this type of behavior.”
Brian Hogan, president of Fidelity’s high-profile stock-picking division, held an emergency meeting last Monday afternoon with his staff to stress the firm’s “zero tolerance policy” for inappropriate workplace conduct, including sexual harassment, according to people familiar with the meeting.
Fidelity has hired a consulting firm to review employee behavior, including within the stock-picking or equity division, people familiar with the matter said.
Fidelity Chairman and Chief Executive Abigail Johnson. PHOTO: BRIAN SNYDER/REUTERS
Privately-held Fidelity, with more than 40,000 employees, is among the world’s largest investment and brokerage firms, with $2.13 trillion in assets under management and $5.7 trillion in assets under administration.
The issue of workplace conduct has been simmering within Fidelity’s stockpicking unit in particular for years. A 2015 internal report warned of cultural problems particularly adverse for women, according to interviews with more than a dozen former Fidelity analysts and portfolio managers.
Multiple employees have complained to superiors and the company’s human-resources department about sexual harassment and other abusive behavior by portfolio managers at the equity division, according to people familiar with the matter. Those complaints have alleged disparaging remarks about appearance and sexual innuendo toward women, as well as bullying of both genders. Complaints have led to firings of at least three portfolio managers over the past six years, people familiar with the terminations said.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Fidelity fired tech fund manager Gavin Baker in September for allegedly sexually harassing a junior female employee, according to an attorney for the woman and other people familiar with the matter. Other junior employees also had complained about Mr. Baker, the Journal reported. A spokesman for Mr. Baker said at the time that he “strenuously” denies any “supposed” allegations of sexual harassment and left the company “amicably.”
In 2011, Fidelity pushed out then-portfolio manager Andrew Sassine, 53, for his workplace behavior and performance, according to court documents. Mr. Sassine’s “terrible and still deteriorating relationships with Fidelity’s internal research analysts were well documented and communicated to the plaintiff,” according to a Fidelity court filing. Fidelity said in the filing that Mr. Sassine acknowledged that he “had developed a reputation as a bully among the analysts.”
Mr. Sassine sued Fidelity for wrongful termination related to a physical disability; the jury at the subsequent trial ruled in Fidelity’s favor. In an interview, Mr. Sassine acknowledged being “a very tough portfolio manager.” He said, “I was a tough individual but I was fair as well.”

A June 2015 report written by a working group of female Fidelity employees was presented to senior staff in the firm’s stock-picking unit, according to four people who saw the report or attended a presentation of it. Fidelity Chief Executive Abigail Johnson also received a copy, according to these people. The presentation warned of a male-dominated culture at the equity unit and its detrimental effects on women in particular, according to the people.
“We are not aware of this 2015 report with these conclusions or any presentation to senior leaders,” the Fidelity spokesman said.
Called “Culture Review,” the report criticized Fidelity’s compensation system, which relies in part on portfolio managers’ ratings of their subordinates, and said the environment led to “cultural improprieties” for women, the people who saw the report say. It suggested guidelines, including that portfolio managers should invite all analysts to dinners or other events they host, not just a select few, the people say.
The stock-picking unit, with about 60 portfolio managers and roughly 110 analysts in Boston, manages dozens of mutual funds and other investment products. Analysts are junior to portfolio managers and support their investment picks with research and new ideas and typically try to work their way up to those lead manager positions.
Within the unit, 9.5% of equity-fund managers were women in 2016, compared with 13.8% of managers at American Funds and Franklin Templeton, and 11.1% at T. Rowe Price Group , Inc., according to fund-research firm Morningstar Inc. Across all companies, 7.7% of stock fund managers globally are female.
Women in senior leadership positions at Fidelity include Ms. Johnson, the chief executive and chairman; Equity Chief Investment Officer Melissa Reilly ; and Judy Marlinski, president of its institutional asset management business.
Fidelity’s approach to rating and compensating analysts has been unpopular inside the stock-picking unit, according to the former employees.

Under that system, an analyst’s bonus is in part driven by his or her ability to successfully pick stocks. The other portion is a subjective measure of how useful portfolio managers find the analyst’s research, and what they think of the analyst’s communication and teamwork among other factors, according to people familiar with the matter.
That second measure has made it risky for some employees to speak up about inappropriate behavior, the former employees say.
Analysts also score portfolio managers. “The culture at Fidelity is such that analysts tend to give the numeric rating comfortably, but tend to give written comments more carefully for fear that such comments will later be attributed to them,” according to a Fidelity court filing related to Mr. Sassine’s termination.
Mr. Loporchio says Fidelity encourages employees to raise concerns about conduct internally, including through the “chairman’s line,” a telephone line where employees can report concerns anonymously.
The former managers and analysts say the compensation structure has at times given rise to a popularity contest inside Fidelity’s stock-picking unit, with analysts currying favor with portfolio managers.
Informal outings to bars, Red Sox baseball games and poker games hosted by male portfolio managers were particularly fraught, these people say. Some analysts and associates, male and female, felt pressure to go to these events to get a good rating, the former managers and analysts say. Others say they weren’t invited, creating what the 2015 report deemed a difficult culture.
Some employees in the stock-picking unit joked that they weren’t good enough unless they were invited to the “wine club,” gatherings of upper-echelon portfolio managers hosted at their homes, these people say.
Bruce Dirks, a former portfolio manager at Fidelity, said the subjective portion of analyst evaluations had long been a source of conflict and that the firm had tried to improve it. “There was always some concern there,” he said.
For portfolio managers, compensation was largely based on performance and assets managed, but “for the analyst and associates, it was much more difficult,” Mr. Dirks recalled. “The analysts hated that. They absolutely hated that.”
“Fidelity is a meritocracy and we pay for strong performance,” the Fidelity spokesman said. “If an analyst or portfolio manager is very good at picking stocks, they will succeed at Fidelity.”
At least two well-performing portfolio managers in the equity division have left that division or the firm within the past three years because they thought culture problems made it a difficult place to work, according to people familiar with the matter.
Several women complained within the past five years to managers and Fidelity’s human-resources department about disparaging comments allegedly made by James Morrow, 45, who manages about $28 billion within the equity unit, former employees said. Two people said Mr. Morrow also bullied well-performing analysts, male and female, whose investing style he didn’t agree with, by docking their scores in compensation reviews.
Mr. Morrow denied those allegations through a spokesman. “If analysts ever felt I was difficult, it has been unequivocally gender-blind,” Mr. Morrow said through the spokesman. Fidelity announced in April that Mr. Morrow was retiring at the end of 2017.
Earlier this year, a portfolio manager focused on mid-cap stocks, Court Dignan, was pushed to leave the firm after heated confrontations with colleagues including a junior analyst, people familiar with the matter said.
"I know nothing about any such allegations. I’m proud of what I accomplished while at Fidelity,” Mr. Dignan said in an interview. “I left Fidelity and the investment-management industry in order to change careers and lifestyle. I’m back in school and am enjoying it greatly.”
“Fidelity remains committed to providing all associates with an outstanding work environment and we will always work hard to ensure that we take swift and appropriate action when an individual violates our policies, and more importantly, our values,” Fidelity spokesman Mr. Loporchio said.

WSJ : Japan's Abe Cements Hold on Power With Election Win

Japan's Abe Cements Hold on Power With Election Win
Victory puts him on course to be Japan’s longest-serving prime minister

TOKYO—Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won a strong new mandate from voters in a national election Sunday, a result he indicated would embolden him to push for the first changes to the nation’s constitution since it was introduced in 1947.

Mr. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party, and its coalition partner were close to 300 seats of the 465 available in the lower house election with almost 90% of results decided, television stations said. Final official results will be available Monday.

After a steep fall in public approval ratings earlier this year tied to allegations that Mr. Abe helped friends in business dealings, the prime minister took advantage of opposition party disarray and a rebound in support to call an election over a year before a legal deadline.

During the 12-day campaign, Mr. Abe framed the vote as a referendum on his handling of the economy and the threat from North Korea. Japan’s economy has grown continuously for the last year-and-a-half, the longest stretch for more than a decade.

The expected big win for the 63-year-old Mr. Abe puts him on course to become the longest-serving Japanese prime minister, a feat he would achieve if he remains in office through November 2019.

Mr. Abe indicated that following the election victory he would push forward an effort to revise the nation’s constitution, a goal he has held since he first became prime minister in 2006.

“We need to gain the understanding of the public,” Mr. Abe said in a televised interview.

In May this year, on the 70th anniversary of the constitution being imposed by occupying American forces, Mr. Abe said that increasing security threats, an aging society and the need for economic revival were among reasons lawmakers should discuss potential changes. He set 2020 as a target for the revision.

To alter the constitution, two-thirds of lawmakers must vote in favor of the proposed changes, which must then win majority support in a national referendum. In 2012, the Liberal Democratic Party put forward a proposal for extensive changes to the constitution that was quickly dropped amid fierce political opposition.

Parliamentary approval for constitutional reform may be made easier by a new right-of-center opposition party led by Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike that supports the idea.

“We’re getting to a place where we can have a solid national discussion” on changing the constitution, Ms. Koike said in a televised interview after the election.

Mr. Abe’s personal focus—and the most contentious proposed revision—is to Article 9 of the document, headed “Renunciation of War.” The clause says Japan won’t maintain armed forces in order to ensure it will never wage war.

In reality, Japan’s military was reformed in the 1950s but tasked with a purely defensive role, including disaster relief, and called the Self-Defense Force. National opinion polls show Japanese are highly supportive of the SDF, which is one the world’s most modern militaries, equipped with advanced hardware.

Mr. Abe and his party argue that the current wording of the constitution could create a national crisis if the SDF is seen as unconstitutional in a conflict. His opponents say that all previous governments have accepted that the constitution allows for a defensive military, and that Mr. Abe is taking Japan down a path that might entangle it in other nations’ wars.

Criticism has also come from some of Japan’s neighboring countries, most notably China, which was partially occupied by Japan in the early 20th century and says Tokyo is reverting to militarism.

Mr. Abe says Japan should play a larger role internationally, including by having its military participate in United Nations peacekeeping operations and support Tokyo’s allies.

In 2014, Mr. Abe’s cabinet issued a reinterpretation of the current constitution Fallowing the SDF to aid allies under attack. Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera argued earlier this year that this change could allow Japan to try to shoot down any North Korean missiles fired at Guam, a threat made by Pyongyang during the current crisis over North Korea’s nuclear program.

The U.S. administrations of both Barack Obama and Donald Trump have been supportive of moves that would commit Japan to shouldering a heavier military burden in its alliance with the U.S.

In recognition of the strong opposition to changes to the constitution, Mr. Abe’s personal hope is that the text can simply be supplemented to include a clause acknowledging Japan’s right to have a military.


“I think our generation is responsible to put an end to any dispute over the constitutionality of the SDF,“ Mr. Abe said in another televised interview.

Even if Mr. Abe gains sufficient support for constitutional revision in parliament, its likelihood of being approved in a referendum is far from clear. Left-of-center opposition parties have campaigned strongly to block any changes and many Japanese see the constitution as ensuring that the nation hasn’t been involved in any conflicts since World War II.

An opinion poll published by the Asahi newspaper on Oct. 19 showed the public evenly split on the question of whether article 9 of the constitution should be revised, in line with several other surveys in recent years.

Mr. Abe’s own standing with voters could affect the outcome of any referendum. At one polling center in Tokyo on Sunday, opposition criticism of Mr. Abe’s political style, including allegations that his government helped his friends win favors, appeared to have sunk in, even among voters who otherwise liked his policies.

“I see higher stock prices as a reason to support the LDP,” said Junko Abe, who didn’t provide her age and is no relation to the prime minister. But she said she ended up voting for an opposition candidate because she didn’t feel she could back the LDP 100% after the scandals.

Joichiro Taneda, 38 years old, said he voted for the opposition because he didn’t think Mr. Abe understood average voters’ concerns and had a “strangely dictatorial” style of running the government.