Japan's Abe Cements Hold on Power With Election Win
Victory puts him on course to be Japan’s longest-serving prime minister
TOKYO—Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won a strong new mandate from voters in a national election Sunday, a result he indicated would embolden him to push for the first changes to the nation’s constitution since it was introduced in 1947.
Mr. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party, and its coalition partner were close to 300 seats of the 465 available in the lower house election with almost 90% of results decided, television stations said. Final official results will be available Monday.
After a steep fall in public approval ratings earlier this year tied to allegations that Mr. Abe helped friends in business dealings, the prime minister took advantage of opposition party disarray and a rebound in support to call an election over a year before a legal deadline.
During the 12-day campaign, Mr. Abe framed the vote as a referendum on his handling of the economy and the threat from North Korea. Japan’s economy has grown continuously for the last year-and-a-half, the longest stretch for more than a decade.
The expected big win for the 63-year-old Mr. Abe puts him on course to become the longest-serving Japanese prime minister, a feat he would achieve if he remains in office through November 2019.
Mr. Abe indicated that following the election victory he would push forward an effort to revise the nation’s constitution, a goal he has held since he first became prime minister in 2006.
“We need to gain the understanding of the public,” Mr. Abe said in a televised interview.
In May this year, on the 70th anniversary of the constitution being imposed by occupying American forces, Mr. Abe said that increasing security threats, an aging society and the need for economic revival were among reasons lawmakers should discuss potential changes. He set 2020 as a target for the revision.
To alter the constitution, two-thirds of lawmakers must vote in favor of the proposed changes, which must then win majority support in a national referendum. In 2012, the Liberal Democratic Party put forward a proposal for extensive changes to the constitution that was quickly dropped amid fierce political opposition.
Parliamentary approval for constitutional reform may be made easier by a new right-of-center opposition party led by Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike that supports the idea.
“We’re getting to a place where we can have a solid national discussion” on changing the constitution, Ms. Koike said in a televised interview after the election.
Mr. Abe’s personal focus—and the most contentious proposed revision—is to Article 9 of the document, headed “Renunciation of War.” The clause says Japan won’t maintain armed forces in order to ensure it will never wage war.
In reality, Japan’s military was reformed in the 1950s but tasked with a purely defensive role, including disaster relief, and called the Self-Defense Force. National opinion polls show Japanese are highly supportive of the SDF, which is one the world’s most modern militaries, equipped with advanced hardware.
Mr. Abe and his party argue that the current wording of the constitution could create a national crisis if the SDF is seen as unconstitutional in a conflict. His opponents say that all previous governments have accepted that the constitution allows for a defensive military, and that Mr. Abe is taking Japan down a path that might entangle it in other nations’ wars.
Criticism has also come from some of Japan’s neighboring countries, most notably China, which was partially occupied by Japan in the early 20th century and says Tokyo is reverting to militarism.
Mr. Abe says Japan should play a larger role internationally, including by having its military participate in United Nations peacekeeping operations and support Tokyo’s allies.
In 2014, Mr. Abe’s cabinet issued a reinterpretation of the current constitution Fallowing the SDF to aid allies under attack. Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera argued earlier this year that this change could allow Japan to try to shoot down any North Korean missiles fired at Guam, a threat made by Pyongyang during the current crisis over North Korea’s nuclear program.
The U.S. administrations of both Barack Obama and Donald Trump have been supportive of moves that would commit Japan to shouldering a heavier military burden in its alliance with the U.S.
In recognition of the strong opposition to changes to the constitution, Mr. Abe’s personal hope is that the text can simply be supplemented to include a clause acknowledging Japan’s right to have a military.
“I think our generation is responsible to put an end to any dispute over the constitutionality of the SDF,“ Mr. Abe said in another televised interview.
Even if Mr. Abe gains sufficient support for constitutional revision in parliament, its likelihood of being approved in a referendum is far from clear. Left-of-center opposition parties have campaigned strongly to block any changes and many Japanese see the constitution as ensuring that the nation hasn’t been involved in any conflicts since World War II.
An opinion poll published by the Asahi newspaper on Oct. 19 showed the public evenly split on the question of whether article 9 of the constitution should be revised, in line with several other surveys in recent years.
Mr. Abe’s own standing with voters could affect the outcome of any referendum. At one polling center in Tokyo on Sunday, opposition criticism of Mr. Abe’s political style, including allegations that his government helped his friends win favors, appeared to have sunk in, even among voters who otherwise liked his policies.
“I see higher stock prices as a reason to support the LDP,” said Junko Abe, who didn’t provide her age and is no relation to the prime minister. But she said she ended up voting for an opposition candidate because she didn’t feel she could back the LDP 100% after the scandals.
Joichiro Taneda, 38 years old, said he voted for the opposition because he didn’t think Mr. Abe understood average voters’ concerns and had a “strangely dictatorial” style of running the government.