WSJ : Rio Tinto Isn’t Tesla, it Should Hold Fire On a Lithium Bet

Rio Tinto Isn’t Tesla, it Should Hold Fire On a Lithium Bet
Lithium and battery plays are enjoying a futuristic ride, but Rio shouldn’t follow yet


Mining is an industry of big upfront investments and long periods of pain or gain, depending on whether the digger bets right or wrong.

It’s understandable, therefore, that Rio Tinto’s reported interest in acquiring a big stake in Chilean lithium-miner Sociedad Quimica y Minera is causing butterflies in the stomachs of some investors.

The miner’s interest in lithium makes sense strategically. Rio is more heavily dependent on iron ore than some of its competitors, and slowdown in Chinese demand seems likely. Boosting their exposure to lithium, a battery component and probable linchpin of an increasingly renewable and electric future, isn’t a bad idea. The problem is price.

Rio has a history of buying into bubbly mineral plays at exactly the wrong time. The company’s $38 billion purchase of aluminum firm Alcan in 2007—the height of the commodities bubble—is widely panned as the worst mining deal of all time.

A potential bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan ’s 32% stake in SQM would be worth about $4.7 billion at current prices, far less than the ill-fated Alcan bid. But there are some worrying similarities.

Aluminum prices had gained close 30% in the two years before the Alcan deal closed. The trend in lithium looks even more bubbly—prices have roughly doubled since late 2015, outpacing gains in aluminum, oil, iron ore, and copper.

Unsurprisingly, SQM also looks richly valued. It currently trades at a stomach-churning 41 times its last 12 months’ earnings, according to FactSet, against just 16 times for Rio. On that basis, a potential deal looks even pricier than Alcan. When the Alcan acquisition closed in late 2007 the firm was only valued about 20 times trailing earnings.

Meanwhile lithium-reserve estimates vary wildly, and no one really knows exactly when—or if—the electric-car revolution will really arrive.

A bigger stake in the new-energy sector would make sense for Rio, especially since it appears to have decided coal power’s days are limited and is selling down its coal stakes. And Rio, for the first time in a while, has a lot of cash and is clearly studying its options for how to deploy it.

A better use of that cash might be on Rio’s own undeveloped lithium deposit at Jadar in Serbia. Still, analysts at Bernstein suggest Rio’s real interest in SQM might be simply to get in the room with other bidders and learn more about the economics of the business.

If Rio wants to dive further into lithium, however, it might be wise to wait. Then it can assess the fortunes of other futuristic tech plays, such as those made by Tesla, and see if lithium prices return from their voyage of discovery in outer space.

FT : What’s really behind Rio’s interest in lithium producer SQM?

What’s really behind Rio’s interest in lithium producer SQM?
The Anglo-Australian miner is among those looking at a 32% stake in Chilean group

Is Rio Tinto on the verge of buying into $15bn lithium producer Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile? That’s the question the mining industry is asking after a string of stories linking the Anglo-Australian group to a 32 per cent stake that’s been put up for sale.

PotashCorp of Saskatchewan is selling the holding, worth almost $5bn at current prices, to get regulatory approval for a merger with a rival. According to recent reports Rio is favourite to buy the stake

But is the miner really ready to loosen the purse strings and launch its biggest acquisition since the ill-fated takeover of Alcan in 2007?

It’s important to place Rio interest in context.

The miner has set up an internal unit tasked with identifying and investing in the minerals and resources the world we need in 10 to 15 years. It gave the business, called Rio Tinto Ventures and headed by a former Xstrata executive, a mandate to examine potential deals in commodities like lithium, a key material in rechargeable batteries.

By definition that means Rio is going to show up at more bidding processes — something the market and excitable reporters will have to get used to. But in the case of SQM there’s a very good reason to get involved in the auction for the Potash stake.

Rio is sitting on a large lithium deposit in Serbia called Jadar. The company needs every scrap of information about the still-obscure lithium market before its gives Jadar the green light and sinks hundreds of millions of dollars into the project.

As such, it would be negligent of Rio not to be involved in the sale process given that SQM — already one of the world’s biggest lithium producers — could flood the market with new supply if it settles a dispute with Chile’s economic development agency.

“Information in such a process would presumably give detailed insight into SQM as a company and its place within the global lithium industry, and therefore would be particularly pertinent to Rio’s own thinking around the Jadar project,” said Paul Gait, analyst at Bernstein Research, in a recent report.

But let’s assume that this is more than a fact-finding mission and that Rio Tinto Ventures wants to buy the stake in SQM. Would the deal ever be signed off by Rio’s board?

Well, Rio’s relatively new chief executive Jean Sebastien Jacques has said he’s prepared to make acquisitions but only if they are ‘”smart” buys — or deals that deliver shareholder value.

SQM doesn’t look to be one of them.

First, Rio would be buying a minority stake with no obvious path to gain full ownership, unless it could also strike a deal to buy the stake of Julio Ponce Lerou, the former son-in-law of the late Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet.

Second, SQM is very expensive. Due to the hype around electric vehicles, its share price has almost doubled this year and SQM now trades on 30 times expected earnings. On top of that, it’s not clear that lithium will be a commodity in short supply even if electric vehicles go mainstream.

The smart thing for Rio to do is walk away from the SQM auction — but only after it has gathered as much market intelligence as it can. And that’s probably what the miner, which has a chequered history of dealmaking, will do.

>>> Ansaldo STS likely to face renewed bid from Hitachi Rail to acquire complete

Ansaldo STS likely to face renewed bid from Hitachi Rail to acquire complete control 

Hitachi Rail, a unit of Japanese industrial conglomerate Hitachi [TYO: 6501], is likely to make a renewed effort to take its stake in Italian railway signaling equipment manufacturer Ansaldo STS [BIT: STS] to 100%, Italian-language daily Milano Finanza reported.
The report cited financial sources who claimed that Hitachi needs to make the move so that it can take on competitors such as Alstom and Siemens in the railway infrastructure sector.
The item noted that at present Hitachi Rail holds 50.7% of Ansaldo STS. The item noted that a previous attempt to delist Ansaldo STS failed when minority shareholders blocked the operation on the grounds that it was not generous enough.
The shareholders turned down an initial EUR 9.5 a share offer and also an improved EUR 10.5 a share offer. The report said that both investment banks and activist shareholders are saying that only a EUR 16.5 a share offer would have a chance of succeeding.
Paul Singer, the entrepreneur, presently holds a 25.6% stake in Ansaldo STS via Elliott and The Liverpool Ltd partnership, according to the report. Singer has signalled his willingness to increase the stake. The item added that Elliot and Liverpool were instrumental in the failure of the previous public offer.
Ansaldo STS has a market cap of EUR 2.35bn. Its share price at the close of trading yesterday 23 November was EUR 11.77 a share.

FT : Regulation on ICOs inconsistent as crypto bubble fears grow

Regulation on ICOs inconsistent as crypto bubble fears grow
DoJ is actively scrutinising ICOs, which could mean criminal penalties are looming

When celebrities known more for reality shows than financial prowess start endorsing a particular investment strategy, it is fair to assume a bubble exists.

And so it is with initial coin offerings, a virtual way to raise cryptocurrency funds. Stars including socialite Paris Hilton, actor Jamie Foxx and boxer Floyd Mayweather have all taken to social media to claim they are backing cryptocurrency fundraising.

ICOs work by a company issuing tokens, typically in exchange for a cryptocurrency such as Ethereum. Tokens can be used to buy future services from the issuer or can be sold on.

There have been 211 ICOs through October this year, raising a total of $3.5bn, according to data from Coinschedule, an ICO information provider.

This is closely correlated to the soaring value of cryptocurrencies: bitcoin’s value has leapt from $997 to $8,150 so far this year: an increase of more than 700 per cent.

With the siren-call of high returns, punters — and celebrities — are piling in. Which is what worries regulators. But whether they have the ability to do much depends on whether they apply rules — often decades in the making — to an innovation that is months old.

“It is a bit of a patchwork” says Simon Toms of law firm Allen & Overy, contrasting the draconian approach of China, which banned ICOs in September, to the self-confessedly “permissive” regulations of the Isle of Man.

It helps to separate approaches taken around the world into three broad buckets, says Kari Larsen, an attorney at Reed Smith and a former US regulator.


First, there are the countries that have outlawed ICOs — such as China or South Korea — or those like Vietnam that ban payments in cryptocurrencies, which has a knock-on effect on ICOs. Also included would be countries with mixed messages, such as Russia, where senior officials have made positive remarks about cryptocurrencies but where strong data protection laws that could hamper ICOs also exist.

In the second category are jurisdictions that have put out the welcome mat for ICO issuers: Gibraltar, the Cayman Islands, Mauritius and the Isle of Man. Not coincidentally, they are the traditional big offshore financial centres “and want to continue to be the leading offshore financial centres,” explains Ms Larsen.

The majority of developed economies with a strong regulatory framework comprise the final group: the US, the UK and the rest of the European Union, Hong Kong, Canada and Australia.

This third category all have longstanding securities laws and rather than banning ICOs, they have reminded issuers that those laws — some dating back generations — could apply to innovations such as ICOs. They have also warned consumers on the risks of such highly speculative investments and that some could be just old-fashioned scams.

Bans: China, South Korea, Vietnam (Russia – no outright ban but data laws make it difficult)
Fans: Gibraltar, Isle of Man, Cayman Islands, Mauritius
Wary:US, UK and European Union, Hong Kong, Canada, Australia, Singapore, Switzerland

Unsurprisingly, with a long history of pursuing white-collar offences, the US is at the forefront. The Securities and Exchange Commission’s July report on a company called DAO — whose fundraising backfired spectacularly when a hacker made off with a third of its assets — was the first salvo that ICOs could fall under its watch and stringent rules. In four short months since then, the SEC has filed the first ever ICO fraud charges, and earlier this month put celebrities on notice that ICO endorsements could breach anti-touting rules.

More worryingly for issuers, the US Department of Justice is actively scrutinising ICOs, which could mean criminal penalties are looming, according to Kathryn Haun, the DoJ’s first crypto “tsar” who is now on the board of Coinbase, a digital-currency platform.



She forecasts that DoJ will pick its maiden ICO case carefully, choosing “most likely a case of pure fraud or a blatant and wanton violation of securities laws rather than a situation that may be a closer call.”

The full force of the SEC is invoked when tokens issued during ICOs are legally a security, rather than vouchers to be exchanged within a limited community. That is determined by a Supreme Court evaluation dating back to 1946 called the Howey test, which analyses whether investors are purchasing some kind of promise with an expectation of profit. If so, issuers have to comply with rules on registration, transparency and investor marketing that the SEC oversees.

“You can call it a coin or a potato, or whatever you want, but it’s the substance that regulators will look at,” says Mr Toms of Allen & Overy.

The UK — never far behind the US in recent years — has so far stuck to warning consumers that they should be prepared to lose all their investment. But the Financial Conduct Authority is also weighing whether celebrity endorsers could be breaching longstanding rules on giving consumers fair and complete information.

This third category are also united in stressing the extra-territoriality of their laws. “Limiting to non-US investors only works if an issuer verifies those investors are actually non-US investors, and even then laws like Dodd-Frank have expanded the extraterritorial reach of securities laws,” explains Ms Haun.

The approach of Singapore and Switzerland is particularly interesting as both are considered welcoming of ICOs. The head of Singapore’s regulator said it wants to welcome “good” ICOs, while Zug — the Swiss canton known for commodity traders — is now dubbed “Crypto Valley”. About $600m was raised through ICOs by Swiss-based issuers this year, according to Forbes.

But both the Monetary Authority of Singapore and Switzerland’s Finma in recent weeks have followed other regulators by issuing warnings. Finma went as far as to threaten enforcement action against ICOs that had deliberately flouted securities regulation and anti-money laundering rules, stressing it had a number of ICOs under review.

Ms Larsen also anticipates greater regulatory scrutiny on the Swiss-based foundations that often sit above ICOs. A prime example of such a foundation is that which controls the finances of Tezos, the venture that undertook one of the largest-ever ICOs only to erupt into a corporate-governance battle that has sparked the first ICO class-action lawsuits.

And class actions, legal experts predict, could have as much of a chill as regulatory action.

>>> What to look at today - 24th of November 2017

Asian stocks traded mixed with Japanese equities erasing losses as the yen declined, while a sudden sell-off that sent Chinese equities plunging on Thursday fizzled. The dollar was firmer as Treasury yields climbed. With U.S. markets closed and most American investors out for the Thanksgiving holiday, volumes remained lackluster in Asia as traders in Tokyo returned back at their desks after a holiday in Japan on Thursday. The Hang Seng Index advanced with Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong climbing. The Bloomberg dollar index rose for the first time in four days. The severity of Thursday’s slump in Chinese stocks caught some traders off-guard and left some questioning why authorities decided not to step in this time as they have often done in the past. The selloff in Chinese shares, which triggered a 1 percent slump in the Hang Seng Index, was a reminder to international investors that turbulence in mainland Chinese markets can spread.


Nikkei +0.12% Hang Seng +0.53% CSI +0.02% Shanghai +0.07% Shenzen -0.02%

Eur$ 1.1847 CNH 6.5927 CNY 6.5964 JPY 111.52 GBP 1.3288 CHF 0.9822 RUB 58.5471 WTI$ 58.45 +0.74%

S&P +0.07% Eurostoxx +0.03% FTSE +0.10% Dax +0.16% SMI +0.01%

Macro :
- China Cuts Import Duties on Goods Including Baby Formula

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Airbus CEO Is Said to Have Been Questioned in Kazakh Probe: AFP
- ATC NA : Altice Hopes to Get Up to EU3b From Sale Dominican Ops: Reuters
- ATC NA : Pinault Is Said to Study Buying Point de Vue From SFR: Echos
- BWO NO : BW Offshore 3Q Net Income $4M
- CABK SM : BPI Agrees to Sell Units to CaixaBank, Increases CET1 Ratio
- CLN SW : Clariant Rejects White Tale’s Idea to Hire an Investment Bank
- ILD FP : Macron Threatens to Fine Telcos Not Helping Wire Rural France
- MS IM : Telecom Italia, Mediaset May Be Close to TV Deal: Messaggero
- NDA SS : AMF, Alecta See Higher Tax Costs If Nordea Moves HQ, SVD Says
- SPM IM : Saipem to Boost Renewables to Survive in Oil-Free Scenario: CEO
- SGO FP : Saint-Gobain Proposes to Renew Term of Chairman De Chalendar
- SDRL NO : Seadrill, NADL Say Orjan Svanevik Resigned From Company Boards
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia, Mediaset May Be Close to TV Deal: Messaggero
- TKA GY : Cevian Co-Founder Assails Thyssenkrupp CEO’s Strategy: HBT
- UCG IM : UniCredit Says It’s Progressing With Phase 2 of Bad Loan Sale
- UNA NA : Unilever Is Said to Hire Headhunter for CEO Successor: Sky News

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 24th of November 2017

>>> Up
* Acerinox Upgraded to Buy at BPI; PT 14 Euros
* Centrica Upgraded to Neutral at Goldman; PT 1.49 Pounds
* Dometic Raised to Equal-Weight Post SeaStar Deal: Morgan Stanley
* Elumeo Upgraded to Buy at Baader-Helvea; PT 12 Euros
* Experian Upgraded to Neutral at Exane; PT 15.40 Pounds
* Opera Software Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 27 Kroner
* Ophir Energy Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT 80 Pence
* Osram Upgraded to Buy at Baader-Helvea; PT 78 Euros
* Rotork Upgraded to Hold at Liberum; PT 2.65 Pounds
* Santander Upgraded to Buy at Goldman

>>> Down
* Abertis Downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 18 Euros
* Aker Downgraded to Hold at Norne Securities; PT 410 Kroner
* Atlantia Downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 27.50 Euros
* CA Immo Downgraded to Accumulate at SRC Research; PT 26 Euros

>>> Initiation
* NKT Initiated at JPMorgan With Overweight; PT 345 Kroner
* Unicaja Banco Initiated at Goldman With Neutral; PT 1.46 Euros

>>> Call