Why Anthropic Costs Are Unpredictable
Anthropic customers are already feeling pinched by the company’s AI price hikes, Aaron and I reported Wednesday. Making matters harder, Anthropic customers like PagerDuty and ServiceNow, which says it already blew through its full-year budget for Anthropic AI tools, can’t predict what they’ll pay this year.
One reason Anthropic costs are tough to predict, ServiceNow chief digital information officer Kellie Romack told me, is that Anthropic doesn’t automatically show customers the kind of granular data that allows them to see which of its users consume which tools; how much they use the tools, and how they’re using them. Software firms such as ServiceNow, SAP, Microsoft and Workday offer such “telemetry” data to their customers, she said.
Having that data from Anthropic would make it easier to cut off employees who are “tokenmaxxing” or using the tools inefficiently.
There are workarounds. Customers can monitor staffers’ usage of Anthropic’s tools to some extent by connecting their Claude accounts to an external analysis tool through standard application programming interfaces. But this requires customers to have access to such a tool to make sense of all that data.
ServiceNow uses this method to track employees’ daily use of Claude tools through AI Control Tower, an application ServiceNow also sells to its own customers to monitor AI usage across their workforces, she said. Romack has assigned a member of her team to monitor the data through that app.
Another Anthropic customer, insurer National Life Group, also faces a dearth of granular usage data about its employees’ Claude accounts. Nimesh Mehta, its chief information and strategy officer, said the issue makes Anthropic “great for consumer usage but not great for companies” that want to monitor individuals’ usage.
Anthropic also doesn’t offer so-called service-level agreements with customers that define how well the product will perform and customer-service response times that the customers should expect, Romack and Mehta said. Such agreements are standard in the software industry.
Romack said that while she wasn’t frustrated with Anthropic and understands that its technology and business are nascent, “I want more transparency.” (An Anthropic spokesperson did not have a comment.)
More and more companies feel pressured to use Anthropic’s costly state-of-the-art tools and are clearly going to keep using them because their leaders think they can eventually make the numbers work. Such spending is also driven by the fear that rivals will figure out the economics before they do.
On the bright side, customers can theoretically turn off such spending at the drop of a hat if they absolutely need to, or if cost-efficient alternatives materialize. That’s a far less painful lever to pull than laying off staff.
Google Follows Palantir’s Playbook
AI was supposed to make consultants obsolete. That’s not happening anytime soon.
Google is the latest AI application maker to follow Palantir’s playbook by hiring specialist consultants who help large customers use the AI products.
Google Cloud plans to hire hundreds of such specialists, known as forward deployed engineers, to help customers use Gemini AI tools, my colleague Erin reported. Google may end up moving existing employees to the new team.
The news comes after OpenAI and Anthropic said they were setting up new entities with private equity firms to help companies “deploy” AI, and after software firms that also sell AI, including ServiceNow and Salesforce, said they were hiring FDEs.
These are reminders of the excruciating challenge of getting corporations to make the most of today’s AI capabilities, which are improving seemingly every week.
Palantir has long charged customers fees for FDEs to help them develop custom AI applications using data they store with Palantir. But the company’s pricing model of charging customers based on the value or cost savings they get from Palantir software is also appealing, said Max de Groen, a partner at Bain Capital who is working with OpenAI on the AI deployment joint venture.
“The type of talent that we're hiring for DeployCo is gonna be some of the top-tier talent and some of the Palantir alums, people who have left Palantir, and others…so we are looking for that level of talent,” he told me.
OpenAI acquired a small consulting firm to bolster OpenAI Deployment Company, giving it 150 FDEs as a starting point.
The SpaceXAI Exodus: More Than 50 Recent Exits as Meta, Thinking Machines Hire Staff
Call it the SpaceXAI exodus.
The Takeaway
- More than 50 researchers and engineers have left SpaceXAI since February
- Meta Platforms and Thinking Machines Lab hire former SpaceXAI staff
- SpaceXAI’s pretraining team has shrunk to a handful of people
More than 50 researchers and engineers working on xAI’s Grok models have left the AI lab since SpaceX acquired it in February, through layoffs, firings and voluntary departures, according to several people with knowledge of the moves. These departures come on top of the exits of all of xAI’s co-founders besides Elon Musk.
The most recent turnover has coincided with big changes at the AI group that also include the installation of new leadership from SpaceX, an unconventional deal to potentially buy coding startup Cursor and Anthropic taking on all the compute capacity at one of xAI’s two gigantic data centers.
Just this month, the leaders of teams working on coding, world models and Grok voice mode have left xAI—which Musk renamed SpaceXAI earlier this month, according to people with knowledge of the moves. Each leader had been with the company for less than a year.
More than 200 researchers worked at xAI as of late last year, according to a person with knowledge of the figure, but that number has decreased this year.
As of early May, SpaceXAI’s pretraining team was down to a handful of people, following exits including that of pretraining lead Juntang Zhuang, according to the people with knowledge of the moves. Pretraining is the critical first step in creating a new AI model. The changes this year have led some people in and around SpaceXAI to question whether it’s still committed to developing leading models, though Musk has said it’s still doing so.
Certainly, turnover among highly sought-after researchers is common at top AI labs—last year, xAI sued OpenAI for poaching its employees in a lawsuit that a federal judge tossed out in February. But people who have worked at SpaceXAI say the pace of departures has heightened this year, contributing to low morale that has made hiring more difficult.
In March, Musk said xAI hadn’t been “built right” and was “being rebuilt,” just weeks after SpaceX acquired it at a valuation of $250 billion. In May, he said xAI would be “dissolved as a separate company” and renamed it SpaceXAI. Staff from Cursor and SpaceX have been spending time at xAI’s offices speaking with employees about their work in recent weeks.
One factor that has likely contributed to turnover at the AI lab is a culture of extreme overwork under Musk, according to people who have worked at SpaceXAI. During some periods of time when he has been especially focused on the AI lab, he would require teams to meet with him seven days per week in the lab’s Palo Alto, Calif., offices, two of the people said. Musk also set deadlines for training models that some staff considered unrealistic, leading teams to cut corners that could hurt the performance of Grok models, one of the people said.
Musk’s harsh leadership style has been a point of contention in his ongoing legal case against OpenAI, which he funded for years before founding xAI in 2023. During testimony on Tuesday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman accused Musk of doing “huge damage” to OpenAI by requiring leaders to stack rank researchers and “take a chainsaw through a bunch” of them.
Many of the recent job moves have not been previously reported, though some have been announced on social media. SpaceX did not respond to requests for comment.
Meta and Thinking Machines Hiring
Dozens of former xAI staff are on the job market, but many have landed at either Meta Platforms or Thinking Machines Lab.
Meta has hired at least 11 researchers and engineers from xAI since February, according to people with knowledge of the moves. Thinking Machines has hired at least seven people over the same period, the people said, bringing the Mira Murati–led startup’s total headcount to over 150.
Two other former SpaceXAI researchers have joined MiroMind, an AI startup founded by Chinese billionaire entrepreneur Chen Tianqiao. One of the hires, Beibin Li, briefly led SpaceXAI’s coding team before leaving the company in recent weeks.
Anthropic has also hired at least two former xAI employees this year, including xAI co-founder Ross Nordeen, who worked on its infrastructure efforts. Nordeen announced he would join Anthropic on the same day Anthropic announced its deal with SpaceXAI. He was the only member of its founding team besides Musk left at the company.
Outside of researchers and AI engineers, other notable xAI departures since February include Chief Financial Officer Anthony Armstrong and several leaders on its data center and AI tutor teams.
Apple’s Security Has Been Tough to Crack. Mythos Helped Find a Way In.
During tests in April, researchers found software issues in MacOS, one of the world’s toughest targets for hackers
- Researchers with security firm Calif found two bugs in Apple’s desktop operating system, using techniques from Anthropic’s Mythos AI.
- Improved bug-finding by AI models like Anthropic’s Mythos has led to warnings of a “Bugmageddon.”
- The White House is re-evaluating its AI strategy and considering an executive order for government oversight of advanced AI.
Security researchers say they have discovered a new way of circumventing Apple’s AAPL 0.05%increase; green up pointing triangle state-of-the art security technology, using techniques they discovered while testing an early version of Anthropic’s Mythos AI software in April.
The researchers with Calif, a Palo Alto-based security research company, say the software they wrote links together two bugs and a handful of techniques to corrupt the Mac’s memory and then gain access to parts of the device that should be inaccessible.
It is what’s known as a privilege escalation exploit, and if it were chained together with other attacks it could be used by a hacker to seize control of the computer.
The technique is noteworthy because Apple has put so much effort into locking down MacOS, said Michał Zalewski, a security researcher who formerly worked at Google and who reviewed the Calif research but wasn’t involved in the testing.
Apple, which is deploying and testing frontier AI models to test and patch vulnerabilities, is reviewing the Calif report to validate its findings. “Security is our top priority, and we take reports of potential vulnerabilities very seriously,” a company spokeswoman said.
The bug-finding capabilities of the latest AI models from companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI have improved enough in recent months that many cybersecurity experts are now warning of a Bugmageddon, an unprecedented rash of security vulnerability discoveries that could cause headaches for the technology staffers who must patch them, and also represent an unprecedented cybersecurity risk.
Earlier this year, Anthropic’s AI found over 100 high-severity vulnerabilities in the Firefox browser over a two-week period. That is how many the rest of the world typically finds in two months.
Last September, Apple said it leveraged its hardware and operating system expertise into a technology called Memory Integrity Enforcement (MIE), which it described as “the culmination of an unprecedented design and engineering effort, spanning half a decade.”
With Claude, building the code that exploited the two MacOS bugs took five days, Calif says.
The attack couldn’t have been pulled off by Mythos alone and leveraged the very human cybersecurity expertise of some of Calif’s hackers, said Thai Duong, the company’s chief executive. That is because Mythos excels at reproducing previously documented attacks. “We haven’t seen cases where it comes up with new attack techniques,” he said. “This is kind of a new thing.”
While some of the hype around Mythos is “overblown,” Zalewski said it is possible to use the latest tools for “meaningful vulnerability research and code auditing.”
Researchers with the company were so excited about their discovery, they drove down from Palo Alto in person Tuesday to Apple’s Cupertino headquarters to present their 55-page report describing the bugs it exploited.
They plan to release details of their attack once Apple has patched the underlying issues. The bugs will likely be fixed pretty quickly, Duong said.
The White House initially opposed Anthropic’s efforts to gradually expand access to Mythos, and concerns about the power of newer AI models have upended the administration’s AI strategy, causing a reassessment of its laissez-faire approach to AI development. Federal officials are now contemplating an executive order that would grant the government oversight of the most-advanced models.
OpenAI considering legal action against Apple over iPhone AI deal
ChatGPT maker believes tech giant has failed to invest sufficiently in their partnership
OpenAI is exploring legal action against Apple over their deal to integrate ChatGPT into the iPhone, underlining the bitter competition between leading AI groups to access the iPhone-maker’s massive consumer base.
The start-up was considering its legal options over what it sees as a lack of progress by Apple over enacting its 2024 agreement, according to people familiar with the matter.
OpenAI was concerned about a “pattern of behaviour from Apple . . . showing no interest in investing required resources to deliver on the promise of the partnership”, one of the people said.
“They are focused solely on extracting a tax for their market position,” they added. Bloomberg first reported OpenAI’s legal threat.
Apple has stayed on the sidelines as its Big Tech peers pour hundreds of billions of dollars into bets on AI models and infrastructure, instead striking deals to serve up third-party models to more than 1bn iPhone users.
The tension between Apple and OpenAI comes after the hardware giant earlier this year partnered with Google to use its Gemini AI models to power “Apple Intelligence”, its suite of AI features.
The announcement was widely viewed as a rebuke of OpenAI, which was the first AI company to partner with Apple.
The OpenAI partnership allowed Apple users to access results from ChatGPT when submitting queries to Siri and integrated the AI chatbot into Apple’s writing tools.
OpenAI is frustrated that Apple has not done more to integrate and promote its AI tools for iPhone users.
Apple is expected to announce updates with its new operating system later this year that will allow users to plug into a variety of third-party AI models. OpenAI has meanwhile poached talent from Apple’s AI team.
The AI start-up also hired Apple’s former design chief Jony Ive to work on a new device, which could become a competitor to the iPhone.
The threat comes as the ChatGPT maker faces a jury verdict as soon as this week in a case brought by Elon Musk over its transformation into a for-profit company.
OpenAI and Apple declined to comment.
>>> Up
* Apple PT Raised to $365 from $330 at Evercore ISI (++)
* Bavarian Nordic Price Target Raised to DKK 290 from DKK 285 by SEB
* Cisco PT Raised to $150 from $110 at Evercore ISI (++)
* Cisco PT Raised to $132 from $86 at Piper Sandler (++)
* Dell Technologies PT Raised to $290 from $235 at Citi (++)
* Epiroc Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 315 kronor
* Micron PT Raised to $950 at BofA on Strong Demand Outlook
* Nvidia PT Raised to $350 from $300 at Cantor (++)
* Orsted Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 225 kroner
* Orsted Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 225 kroner
* QT Group Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 28 euros
* Siemens PT Raised to 335 euros from 325 euros at JPMorgan
* Siemens Price Target Raised to EUR 300 from EUR 295 by Bank of America
* Snam Cut to Neutral at Banca Akros (ESN); PT 6.60 euros (++)
* Telefonica Raised to Reduce at New Street Research (++)
* TKMS Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT 80 euros
* Torm Price Target Raised to DKK 248 from DKK 231 by SEB
* Tower Semiconductor PT Raised to $330 from $180 at Susquehanna (++)
* Whirlpool Raised to Buy at CFRA
>>> Down
>>> Down
* Adecco PT Cut to 13.50 Swiss francs at Jefferies
* Apple Cut to Hold at Accountability Research; PT $290 (++)
* Birkenstock PT Cut to $50 from $55 at Piper Sandler
* Birkenstock PT Cut to $50 from $55 at Piper Sandler
* Birkenstock PT Cut to $51 from $56 at Stifel
* Birkenstock PT Cut to $45 from $60 at Telsey (++)
* Carl Zeiss Meditec Price Target Cut to EUR 28 from EUR 31 by Goldman Sachs
* Douglas Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 10.50 euros (+)
* TP ICAP Cut to Hold at Cavendish; PT 323 pence (+)
* Veidekke Price Target Cut to NOK 191 from NOK 202 by SEB
* Vistry Group Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 340 pence
* Vodafone Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT 120 pence
* Whirlpool Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $53
* WH Smith PT Cut to 520 pence from 640 pence at Goodbody
* Wix.com Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $60
* Workspace Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 350 pence
>>> Initiation
>>> Initiation
* AST SpaceMobile Rated New Neutral at New Street Research; PT $80
* Brightstar Lottery Reinstated Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $12.60
* Cambridge Cognition Reinstated Buy at Cavendish; PT 72 pence
* Cirsa Enterprises Resumed Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 20 euros (+)
* DraftKings Reinstated Underperform at BNP Paribas; PT $20
* Entain Reinstated Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 710 pence
* Evolution Reinstated Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 740 kronor
* Flutter Reinstated Underperform at BNP Paribas; PT $80
* Iridium Communications Rated New Neutral at New Street Research
* Iridium Communications Rated New Neutral at New Street Research
* Lottomatica Reinstated Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 33 euros
* Telesat Rated New Sell at New Street Research; PT C$41.11
* Viasat Rated New Buy at New Street Research
>>> Call
>>> Call
* DraftKings Gets Only Sell View as BNP Paribas Sees Earnings Risk
* Epiroc Set for Strong Margin Expansion, Raised to Buy at Goldman
* Morgan Stanley Likes Utilities on Energy Security, Orsted Raised
* Morgan Stanley Likes Utilities on Energy Security, Orsted Raised
* Nokia ADRs Gain as JPMorgan Sees Positive Read Across From Cisco (++)
* Siemens PT Raised to Street High at JPMorgan on Growth, Demand
* RBC Expects Volkswagen to Book IEEPA Tariff Benefits in Q2
Research Calls I
-
Upgrades:
- AN2 Therapeutics (ANTX) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink, tgt $9
- Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan, tgt $68
- Commercial Metals (CMC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS, tgt $89
- Compass Minerals (CMP) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan, tgt $30
- Gladstone Land (LAND) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Lucid Capital, tgt $11.50
- Illumina (ILMN) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Daiwa, tgt $155
- Orsted (DNNGY) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
- Starbucks (SBUX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $120
- Staar Surgical (STAA) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush, tgt $40
-
Downgrades:
- Amphastar (AMPH) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $19
- Autohome (ATHM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC, tgt $17.30
- Bandai Namco (NCBDF) downgraded to Sell from Buy at Goldman
- Camden Property (CPT) downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank, tgt $95
- Doximity (DOCS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $18
- Doximity (DOCS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, tgt $19
- Doximity (DOCS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research
- Doximity (DOCS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird, tgt $18
- Doximity (DOCS) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
- Everpure (P) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, tgt $90
- Flex LNG (FLNG) downgraded to Reduce from Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux, tgt $25
- JBS (JBS) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $18.50
- KT Corp. (KT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities, tgt $23.08
- MAA (MAA) downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank, tgt $120
- Prestige Consumer (PBH) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
- Solv Energy (MWH) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, tgt $50
- Solstice Advance Materials (SOLS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Vertical Research; tgt $90
- Tango Therapeutics (TNGX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, tgt $27
- Whirlpool (WHR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt $53
- Wix.com (WIX) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $54
- Wix.com (WIX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, tgt $66
- Wix.com (WIX) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital, tgt $60
-
Others:
- Academy Sports (ASO) initiated with an Overweight at Stephens, tgt $78
- Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) initiated with a Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $12.60
- Cipher Mining (CIFR) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, tgt $32
- DraftKings (DKNG) initiated with an Underperform at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $20
- Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) initiated with an Underperform at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $80
- Hut 8 (HUT) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, tgt $156
- Kalaris Therapeutics (KLRS) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush, tgt $17
- Riot Platforms (RIOT) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies, tgt $24
- Suncrete (RMIX) initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital, tgt $21
- TeraWulf (WULF) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, tgt $28
Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance:
In reaction to earnings/guidance:
- STAA +19%, PGEN +17.8%, CSCO +14.8% (also announces reduction in workforce), GO +14.7%, FOSL +14.6%, STUB +14.5%, VSNT +14.5%, WWW +12.7%, YETI +10.4%, AQST +9.4%, GOOS +5.9%, WYFI +5.4%, NIQ +4.6%, ARX +4.5%, CPA +4.4%, DDS +4.1%, EQPT +4%, RGNX +3.4%, HMC +2.7%, LWAY +2.4%, VIK +2.3%, JACK +1.7% (also names Executive Chair and Interim CEO), BN +1.5%, ELE +1.4%, BTDR +1.4%
Other news:
- PSIX +7.2% (CEO resigns)
- SN +5.1% (to join S&P MidCap 400)
- BELFB +4.9% (prices offering of 1.5 mln shares of Class B common stock at $266.00 per share)
- MRVL +3.8% (in sympathy with CSCO earnings)
- HPE +3.7% (in sympathy with CSCO earnings)
- RGNX +3.4% (topline results from pivotal phase III AFFINITY DUCHENNE study of RGX-202)
- FG +3.3% (to join S&P SmallCap 600)
- EDIT +3% (reports new preclinical data demonstrating progress of EDIT-401 as potential treatment for hyperlipidemia at the American Society of Gene and Cell Therapy 2026 Annual Meeting)
- CTRI +2.8% (stock offering by selling shareholders)
- CABA +2.5% (Presents preconditioning-free clinical data and automated manufacturing translational data for Rese-cel at ASGCT 2026 Annual Meeting)
- ALGT +2.4% (completes acquisition of Sun Country Airlines Holdings)
- NUVB +2.3% (successful completion of process tech transfer and product introduction to Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) or IBTROZI)
- AHRT +2.2% (increases share repurchase authorization to $100 million)
- ECO +2.1% (increases dividend)
- THG +2% (authorizes new $700 mln stock repurchase program)
- ANET +1.9% (in sympathy with CSCO earnings)
- RLMD +1.5% (files mixed securities shelf offering)
- UWMC +1.2% (calls out the Board of Two Harbors Investment Corp (TWO))
Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance:
In reaction to earnings/guidance:
- DOCS -23.4% (also partners with Aledade), ALMU -17%, ENVX -10.7%, BLSH -9.9%, PBH -7.5% (also to acquire LaCorium Health), CSIQ -6.9%, MFC -3.4%, FRMI -3.3%, BTGO -2.2%, USAR -1.7% (files common stock offering, relates to warrants; also files for stock offering by selling shareholders), CLBT -1.3%,
Select semiconductor related names showing early weakness attributed to speculation that the CPU shortage is easing :
- ARM -4.4%, INTC -3.4%, AMD -1.9%, WDC -1.2%, MU -1.1%, STX -1%
Other news:
- PDFS -10.1% (upsizes and prices secondary and primary offering of 4,568,308 shares of the Company's common stock at $44.00 per share)
- KGS -4.2% (prices offering of 10,563,380 shares of common stock at $71.00 per share)
- OKLO -3.6% (enters equity distribution agreement; may offer up to $1 bln of common stock)
- NAVN -2.5% (new suite of AI tools at Navigate)
- IRT -2% (increases dividend)
- WLFC -1.7% (convertible notes offering)
- ITRG -1.1% (enters into equity agreement)