>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • INSM -3.1%
Other news:
  • CHRW -11.8% (Agreed to acquire RXO in a $5.8 billion cash-and-stock deal, targeting $300 million in run-rate cost synergies.)
  • NIU -3.2% (Reported Q3 sales volume of 537,457 units, up 15% year-over-year, as international sales more than tripled.)
  • VELO -2.4% (Appointed Terence P. Wynn interim CFO following James Suva’s departure, which was unrelated to any company disagreement.)
  • CVE -1.9% (Agreed to acquire Athabasca Oil for C$5.7 billion, adding 45,000 BOE/d and C$85 million in annual synergies.)
  • ACIC -1.2% (COO and CIO Christopher Griffith resigned effective October 1 to pursue another opportunity.)
  • NVO -1.1% (FDA extended denecimig’s review due to manufacturing remediation, with no new decision timeline provided.)
  • GILD -1.1% (Extends an oncology research program with Nurix by two years, paying a $10 million fee.)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • INTT +2.9%
Other news:
  • PCVX +51.7% (VAX-31 met all prespecified primary endpoints in the pivotal Phase 3 OPUS-1 trial and was well tolerated.)
  • PTC +36.0% (Schneider Electric agreed to acquire PTC for $205 per share in cash, implying a roughly €21 billion enterprise value.)
  • ALEC +34.3% (Licenses AL050 to Genentech for $100 million upfront and up to $1.17 billion in milestones plus royalties.)
  • RXO +20.8% (Agreed to be acquired by C.H. Robinson for $5.8 billion, or an implied $30.25 per share.)
  • TAVI +11.4% (Appointed Andrew Wiederhorn CEO and executive chairman and named Kenneth Kuick CFO, effective October 1.)
  • RZLT +9.2% (FDA recommended requesting a Type B pre-BLA meeting for ersodetug in congenital hyperinsulinism after reviewing Phase 3 data.)
  • ALVO +7.5% (FDA approved a second SIMLANDI production suite, effectively doubling Alvotech’s drug-substance manufacturing capacity for U.S. supply.)
  • CBRS +4.7% (OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirmed Cerebras is a close partner with deep engagement focused on advancing speed.)
  • GEO +3.2% (Sold three Adelanto ICE facilities to DHS for $950 million and increased its buyback authorization to $1.25 billion.)
  • AGEN +2.0% (Reports 48% estimated three-year survival for BOT+BAL in recurrent ovarian cancer, with no new safety signals.)
  • VTRS +2.0% (Completed the TYRVAYA rights sale to Harrow for $30 million upfront and up to $70 million in milestones.)
  • BKR +1.8% (Signed Venezuela gas-infrastructure alliance and separate MOU with New Stratus for future oil and gas development.)
  • ETR +1.5% (Names David Borde president and CEO of Entergy Texas, effective Oct. 5.)
  • RDW +1.5% (Wins follow-on Axiom Space contract to develop and deliver two solar array wings for its second station module.)
  • TKNO +1.2% (Will exclusively manufacture and distribute PluriFreeze in U.S. and Canada as Pluristyx completes its FDA drug master file.)
  • HAFN +1.2% (Issued 35.5 million shares after completing a previously announced equity offering raising about $300 million.)
  • QCOM +1.0% (Will return to trial against Arm Holdings.)
  • GMAB +1.0% (Reported Phase 1/2 Rina-S data showing a 45.9% response rate and 12.1-month median response duration.)

>>> US Research Calls

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $334
    • DraftKings (DKNG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA, tgt $27
    • Estee Lauder (EL) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $108
    • Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC, tgt $277
    • Harley-Davidson (HOG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi, tgt $33
    • Microsoft (MSFT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Melius Research, tgt $665
    • Rentokil Initial (RTO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
    • Ryder (R) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $298
    • Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $200
    • Virtu Financial (VIRT) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $84
    • Wells Fargo (WFC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $102
  • Downgrades:
    • Align Technology (ALGN) downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI, tgt $155
    • AutoNation (AN) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $175
    • Group 1 Automotive (GPI) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $232
    • Hermes (HESAY) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS
    • HubSpot (HUBS) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
    • Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $166
    • Millrose Properties (MRP) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Citizens
    • Mosaic (MOS) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital, tgt $25
    • O-I Glass (OI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, tgt $6
    • Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Craig-Hallum, tgt $132
  • Others:
    • Avidia Bancorp (AVBC) initiated with an Outperform at Hovde Group, tgt $26
    • AvePoint (AVPT) initiated with an Accumulate at Phillip Securities
    • Bitzero (AIBZ) initiated with a Buy at Clear Street, tgt $11
    • Hermes (HESAY) initiated with a Sell at Goldman Sachs
    • Korsana Biosciences (KRSA) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush, tgt $44
    • Lumexa Imaging (LMRI) initiated with a Buy at Truist, tgt $18
    • Maravai LifeSciences (MRVI) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $9
    • nVent Electric (NVT) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital, tgt $212
    • Ondas (ONDS) initiated with an Outperform at Citizens, tgt $14
    • ORIC Pharmaceuticals (ORIC) initiated with an Outperform at Leerink, tgt $26
    • Regenxbio (RGNX) initiated with an Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $22
    • Sable Offshore (SOC) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair
    • Samsara (IOT) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, tgt $50
    • Southern Missouri Bancorp (SMBC) initiated with a Market Perform at Hovde Group, tgt $76
    • Stagwell (STGW) assumed with Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs, tgt $13
    • Swatch Group (SWGAY) initiated with a Sell at Goldman Sachs
    • Vertiv (VRT) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital, tgt $329
    • Vylor (VYLR) initiated with a Buy at BofA, tgt $78
    • Vylor (VYLR) initiated with an Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $84
    • Zentalis Pharmaceuticals (ZNTL) assumed at Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink, tgt $8

>>> La Lettre de L’Expansion French & English

**LA LETTRE | 5 OCT 2026 | FR**

MACRO / TAUX
- PLF 2027 : effort affiché de 54 Md€, déficit de 5,4 % à 5 % du PIB, dette proche de 122 % fin 2027. Le HCFP juge optimiste l'hypothèse de croissance de 1 %.
- OAT 10 ans à 4,98 % en séance vendredi, spread de 150 pb contre Bund, la France emprunte plus cher que l'Italie. 340 Md€ à lever en 2027.
- Examen en commission des finances dès le 7 octobre, contre-budget RN le 6.

CRÉDIT / LBO
- Peranel (ex-Nestlé Waters, 50 % Platinum Equity, VE 4,9 Md€) : prêt porté à 2,87 Md€, marge relevée à 400 pb, prix à 97, clause « omniblocker ». Levier de 4,7x affiché, 5,4x hors économies.
- Pipeline LBO de 138 Md$ selon JPMorgan. Défauts en Europe à 5,7 Md€, plus haut en douze ans.

SOCIÉTÉS
- Havas : la famille Bolloré contrôle 53 % (30,4 % à la cotation). Capitalisation de 1,8 Md€, 8x les bénéfices 2026, objectif Oddo BHF à 23 €.
- Kering : Pusterla 1880 ferme l'usine de Mayet. Commandes Gucci divisées par trois en trois ans, douzième recul trimestriel consécutif au T2.
- Danone : priorité à l'Inde via Aptamil et Yakult, prêt à céder les marques héritées de Wockhardt.
- Arverne : 26 Mt LCE de ressources en Alsace, potentiel de 43 Mt, nouveau permis en Limagne. Augmentation de capital à l'étude.
- Renault : 600 M€ en Espagne d'ici 2030, cinq nouveaux modèles.
- Stellantis : 100 % de l'usine de Tiruvallur, de 18 000 à plus de 50 000 véhicules en 2027, 60 % à l'export.
- Vinci Airports / GIP : 500 M£ à Édimbourg sur cinq ans.
- Engie / Axéréal : jusqu'à 500 GWh de biométhane. Michelin automatise le recreusage (NAZCA). L'Oréal (BOLD) co-investit avec Nykaa en Inde.
- Eramet : InfraVia renonce à Centenario, Deutsche Bank discute avec Glencore.
- Airbus : contrat cyber défense de 25 ans avec l'État. AXA Italie : CA 2025 en hausse de 12 %.
- Implicity : 35 M€ levés auprès d'IRIS et Five Arrows.

ÉNERGIE
- Gazole à 2,41 €/l en France le 20 septembre, record. Le goulot est le raffinage : une raffinerie sur vingt à l'arrêt, marge US proche de 120 $/baril. Retour du Golfe pas avant le printemps 2027. Risque : restriction des exportations américaines.

MÉDIAS / POLITIQUE
- Audiovisuel public à 3,82 Md€ (moins 47 M€, supportés par France Télévisions). TVA sur la télévision payante de 10 % à 20 % : Canal+ concerné.
- CMA Media : Camille Andrieu succède à Claire Léost, perte nette 2025 de 204 M€.
- Sénat : Larcher réélu, création d'un groupe RN-UDR. Primaire sociale-démocrate les 9 et 10 octobre. Choose France le 18 janvier 2027.

LC / Graham Advisors

**LA LETTRE | 5 OCT 2026 | EN**

MACRO / RATES
- 2027 budget: EUR 54bn headline effort, deficit from 5.4% to 5% of GDP, debt near 122% by end 2027. The fiscal council calls the 1% growth assumption optimistic.
- 10y OAT hit 4.98% intraday Friday, 150bp over Bunds, France now funds wider than Italy. EUR 340bn to raise in 2027.
- Finance committee review starts 7 October, RN counter-budget on the 6th.

CREDIT / LBO
- Peranel (ex-Nestlé Waters, 50% Platinum Equity, EV EUR 4.9bn): loan upsized to EUR 2.87bn, margin widened to 400bp, OID at 97, omniblocker added. Leverage 4.7x marketed, 5.4x excluding savings.
- LBO pipeline of USD 138bn per JPMorgan. European defaults at EUR 5.7bn, a twelve-year high.

CORPORATES
- Havas: Bolloré family at 53% (30.4% at listing). Market cap EUR 1.8bn, 8x 2026 earnings, Oddo BHF target EUR 23.
- Kering: supplier Pusterla 1880 closes its Mayet plant. Gucci orders cut by two thirds in three years, twelfth straight quarterly sales decline in Q2.
- Danone: India push via Aptamil and Yakult, open to selling legacy Wockhardt brands.
- Arverne: 26Mt LCE resources in Alsace, 43Mt potential, new Limagne permit. Capital increase under study.
- Renault: EUR 600m in Spain by 2030, five new models.
- Stellantis: full ownership of Tiruvallur plant, output from 18,000 to over 50,000 units in 2027, 60% for export.
- Vinci Airports / GIP: GBP 500m in Edinburgh over five years.
- Engie / Axéréal: up to 500 GWh of biomethane. Michelin automates regrooving (NAZCA). L'Oréal (BOLD) co-invests with Nykaa in India.
- Eramet: InfraVia passes on Centenario, Deutsche Bank in talks with Glencore.
- Airbus: 25-year defence cyber contract with the French state. AXA Italy: 2025 revenue up 12%.
- Implicity: EUR 35m raised from IRIS and Five Arrows.

ENERGY
- French diesel at a record EUR 2.41/l on 20 September. The bottleneck is refining: one refinery in twenty offline, US crack near USD 120/bbl. Gulf capacity not back before spring 2027. Risk: US export restrictions.

MEDIA / POLITICS
- Public broadcasting at EUR 3.82bn (down EUR 47m, borne by France Télévisions). Pay-TV VAT from 10% to 20%, hitting Canal+.
- CMA Media: Camille Andrieu replaces Claire Léost, 2025 net loss EUR 204m.
- Senate: Larcher re-elected, new RN-UDR group. Social-democrat primary 9 and 10 October. Choose France on 18 January 2027.

LC / Graham Advisors

Trois réserves avant diffusion :
- Le bloc macro vient d'un éditorial (Yves de Kerdrel) : les chiffres sont factuels, le ton est d'opinion.
- J'ai omis le prix de l'acquisition Hyundai Mobis par OPmobility, illisible dans la source (« 600 milliards de 390 millions d'euros »).
- La source est marquée « reproduction et diffusion interdites sans autorisation » : le texte est reformulé, mais la rediffusion reste votre décision.

>>> What to look at today - 5th of Oct. 2026

A global stock rally extended into Asia and Treasuries rose after softer US jobs data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates. The euro fell. MSCI’s Asia Pacific equities index gained 1% after a tech-led rally on Wall Street helped the Nasdaq 100 Index to a record close on Friday. Japanese shares rallied 2.5%, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. climbed 3% on a potential collaboration with Elon Musk’s Terafab. A decline in oil prices also helped sentiment. Brent crude for December delivery slipped 0.7% to about $101.50 a barrel after Saudi Arabia cut prices of its benchmark grade to Asia as flows expand. Treasuries rose modestly across the curve, with the benchmark 10-year yield falling two basis points to 5.25%. The euro fell to its weakest level against the dollar since May 2025 as reports that Spanish government officials are preparing for an early election added to investor concerns over political and fiscal risks across the region. The shared currency slid as much as 0.8% to $1.1161. A Bloomberg gauge of the US currency rose 0.3%. German bond futures rose, while those for French debt declined. Oil’s decline is further bolstering sentiment after Friday’s US jobs report showed employers added fewer workers than forecast, prompting money markets to price in less than a 25% chance of an October Fed hike. The reprieve for bonds came against a months-long rout fueled by persistent inflation concerns, government spending and surging corporate borrowing to finance the artificial-intelligence buildout. Elsewhere, A Brazilian exchange-traded fund in Japan rose 7.6% after Flávio Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of the country’s presidential election. Futures on the real also gained. Gold gave up earlier gains to fall 0.1% to about $4,140 an ounce. Sentiment toward technology shares remained buoyant with futures contracts on the Nasdaq 100 Index rising 0.2%. European equities were also set for a modest gain at the open. Investors are also on the alert for signs of contagion in Europe’s government bond market after a selloff last triggered memories of the region’s debt crisis 15 years ago. Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier, says equity valuations can handle the ongoing rise in global yields. He argues higher yields reflect solid economic fundamentals rather than aggressive monetary tightening.
Up until last week, the bonds of euro-area members had largely retreated in lockstep for much of the year — the result of an energy shock that’s fueled inflation fears and forced the bloc’s central bank to hike interest rates.  France was the clear underperformer as budget squabbling and a contentious election added to the global headwinds.

Nikkei +2.15% Hang Seng -0.06% CSI Closed Kospi Closed Shanghai Closed Shenzen Closed

Eur$ 1.1169 CNH 6.7113 CNY 6.7064 JPY 158.10 GBP 1.3198 CHF 0.8313 RUB 84.1763 TRY 49.1604 WTI$ 90.05 -1.22% Gold 4,145 +0.07% BTC 86,23 +0.47% ETH 2,719 +0.49% - OAT/B UND Spread 141

S&P -0.14% Nasdaq -0.08% EuroStoxx -0.18% FTSE +0.28% Dax +0.04% SMI -0.15%

Macro :
- London Takes a Hit as Super Rich Worth $160 Billion Exit UK
- UK Expected to Follow EU With Tariffs on Chinese EVs, Times Says
- Italy Forecasts Deficit at 2.9% This Year: Statement
- Saudi-Backed Yemen Forces Begin Bid to Retake Houthi Areas (2)
- Germany’s SEFE Taps Lazard in Reprivatization Efforts: Reuters
- London’s Multimillion-Pound Homes Hit New Valuation Headache
- Anxiety Over Gas Prices Points to ‘Looming EV Comeback’ in US

Keep an eye on :
- AKZA NA : AkzoNobel Nears Deal to Sell a Paint Unit to Nippon Paint: FT (Yest)
- AKZA NA : Nippon Paint to Buy Akzo’s Southeast Asia Unit for $1.35 Billion
- ANTO LN : Antofagasta, Unions Begin Mediation in Bid to Avert Chile Strike
- 1 HK : AS Watson Delays Dual London-HK Listing to Next Year: FT
- BAYN GY : Said to invest $2.2B in new Ohio plant- To create 600 new high value jobs, First module for drug substance manufacturing expected operational in 2031; Second for 2034
- BA US : FAA Confirms It Determined Boeing 737 Max Glitch Not a Concern
- BT/A LN : BT Weighs Improved TalkTalk Offer After Initial Bid Rejected: FT (yest)
- BT/A LN : BT Nears Deal to Buy UK Broadband Provider TalkTalk: FT
- CBRS US : Altman Says Cerebras Is A Close Partner of OpenAI’s
- CTPNV NA : CTP Sets 2026 Interim Dividend at €0.345/Share
- DTE GY : Deutsche Telekom Sees €800m Non-US Business AI Sales by 2030
- EMEIS FP : Emeis Completes Disposal of All Operations in Latin America
- ENI IM : Eni, Repsol Consider Selling Part of Top Venezuela Gas Field
- EQT SS : Cleanaway Says EQT Confirms Scheme Proposal on Track
- GMAB DC : GMAB: Genmab announces Rina-S Phase 2 RAINFOL-1 trial results
- GOOGL US : Google Set to Defend £1.2B Suit on Overcharging on Android: FT
- 1905 HK : Haitong Unitrust Halted Pending HK Takeover Code Announcement
- GSF NO : Grieg Seafood Cuts FY Harvest Forecast Due to Algae Event
- IDR SM : Seat Halts Talks Over Defense Project With Indra: El Pais
- 1INN GY ; Innoscripta: Search Conducted by Authorities Oct. 1
- ISP IM : Intesa Said to Drop Paschi Bid if Holders Back Paschi Deals
- ISP IM : Intesa Says Its Paschi Bid Backed by Top Shareholder Delfin
- OR FP : L’Oreal to Weigh Buying Stake in Armani: CEO Says to Corriere
- MMT FP : M6 Group Says Marti to Become Group CFO on Oct. 5
- BMPS IM : Intesa Sanpaolo Says Delfin To Tender 17.6% MPS Stake
- MUX GY : Mutares To Sell Lapeyre Stake to Italian-Backed Buyer
- NEX FP : Nexans Denies Report of Turkish Talks on Great Sea Project
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk’s Denecimig BLA Review Extended by FDA
- EQR NO : Norway Increases Stake in Polarled in Exchange of Draugen Shares
- Open AI IPO : Altman Says Cerebras Is A Close Partner of OpenAI’s
- OpenPayd IPO : Payments firm OpenPayd targets year-end Nasdaq listing to fund U.S. expansion and acquisitions
- PTC US : Schneider Electric to Buy PTC at $205/Shr: M&A Snapshot
- REP SM : Eni, Repsol Consider Selling Part of Top Venezuela Gas Field
- RIO LN : Singaporean giant bankers up for Rio Tinto’s infrastructure auction
- 9984 JP : SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Has Rare Cautionary Note on AI Safety
- SPCX US : Zelenskyy Asked Trump to Block Russia-China Starlink Rival: FT
- SU FP : Schneider in Talks to Acquire PTC for About $20 Billion, FT Says (Yest)
- SU FP : Schneider Said to Near Deal to Buy PTC for More Than $20 Billion / -5.3% pre-mkt
- SKAB SS : Skanska Wins $110m Renton High School Contract
- Tata Motors : Jaguar Land Rover Wholesale Volumes Rose 25% in Latest Quarter
- TSCO LN : Tesco Weighs Majestic Wine Takeover Bid, Sky Reports
- TSLA US : Tesla Shares Climb on Delivery Upside: S&P 500 Sector Wrap
- VST US : Reportedly US to offer $4B loan for Vistra to increase nuclear output
- VOW GY : Seat Halts Talks Over Defense Project With Indra: El Pais
- WBD IM : Webuild Buys Trevi Stake at €5.165/Shr, Raises Offer Price
- WINE LN : Tesco Weighs Majestic Wine Takeover Bid, Sky Reports
- Z AI : 2513 HK : +6% on Goldman Upgrade
- ZEP PW : Solorz Family’s Argumenol Plans Tender for Rest of ZE PAK

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 5th of Oct. 2026

>>> Up
* Continental Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 78 euros
* Estee Lauder Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $108
* Evonik Raised to Hold at Berenberg
* GAP Airports ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $277
* Givaudan Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 3,850 Swiss francs
* Wartsila Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 33 euros
* Z AI Raised to Buy from Neutral, PT HK$ 1,560 at Goldman

>>> Down
* Colruyt Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 31.50 euros
* Hermes Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 1,168 euros
* Jupiter Cut to Hold at Investec; PT 170 pence
* Mosaic Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $25
* Oriola Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 80 euro cents
* Paradox Interactive Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 155 kronor
* Polar Capital Tech Cut to Hold at Investec; PT 850 pence
* Sinch Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 49.50 kronor
* Skanska AB cuts to Hold from Buy, price target: SEK297 at Jefferies
* Skanska Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 297 kronor
* Solid Forsakring Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 120 kronor

>>> Initiation
* Brunello Cucinelli Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT 93 euros
* Burberry Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT 1,250 pence
* Hermes Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT 1,350 euros
* Hexagon Composites Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities
* Kering Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT 250 euros
* LVMH Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT 500 euros
* Metro Bank Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT 183 pence
* Moncler Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT 62 euros
* Paccar Rated New Overweight at Oxcap; PT $150
* Richemont Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT 225 Swiss francs
* Swatch Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT 174 Swiss francs
* Tatton Asset Management Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 820 pence
* Traton Rated New Overweight at Oxcap; PT 50 euros
* Volvo Rated New Equal-Weight at Oxcap; PT 350 kronor

>>> Call
* Brunello Cucinelli Upgraded at RBC on Defensive Attributes
* Continental a Pure Play at a Discount, Morgan Stanley Upgrades
* IG Group Still Outpeform at RBC Ahead of Potential Catalysts
* Skanska Downgraded to Hold at Jefferies on Rising Bond Yields