WWD : GLP-1 Weight Loss Is Changing Men’s Apparel Returns A new report from Retu

GLP-1 Weight Loss Is Changing Men’s Apparel Returns
A new report from ReturnPro suggests that men on GLP-1 medication are responsible for apparel returns.

Weight-loss medications are reshaping consumers’ bodies — and the retail fashion industry is beginning to see the effects.

A new report from ReturnPro suggests that men on GLP-1 medication such as Ozempic or Wegovy are upending a long-held assumption that women are responsible for driving apparel returns.

Not only are men on GLP-1 now more likely to return the clothes they buy, but they are also more likely than women to “bracket,” or purchase multiple sizes (20 percent versus 12 percent) to see which one fits before returning the rest.

“Rather than simply changing what consumers buy, GLP-1s appear to be changing who behaves like the traditional high-return apparel shopper,” the report read.

ReturnPro, which manages product returns and reverse logistics for brands, said it launched the research to help fill a data gap spotted by retailers that seem to have emerged as the drugs grew in popularity. To find answers, the company polled 500 U.S. adults who are either currently taking the GLP-1 drugs or have taken them within the past 12 months. The survey was conducted online through market research firm Pollfish.

The results, however, did more than just highlight a new breed of shoppers that have been changed by how accessible dramatic weight loss has been in recent years.

On one hand, the aggregate data shows that more than half of GLP-1 users (65 percent), regardless of gender, bracket multiple sizes, higher than the 30 percent of general consumers who do, according to a separate and earlier ReturnPro study.

On the other, it shows a different nuance defined by a gender divide: men return clothes more often than women (49 percent versus 37 percent), they spend more on expensive clothes (18 percent to 13 percent), and more of them are willing to enroll in a paid size program that would allow one free size exchange within six months of purchase (64 percent versus 53 percent).

The full impact these medications will have on retail returns remains to be seen. However, the stakes are high. The total cost of U.S. retail returns is estimated to have reached $849.9 billion in 2025, and more consumers are turning to GLP-1 medications. Earlier this year, a Gallup study found that 11 percent of U.S. adults currently take GLP-1 for weight loss, up from 3 percent in 2024. More than 30 million Americans will be on GLP-1 treatment in 2030, according to an estimate from JP Morgan.

“GLP-1 drugs are reshaping body sizes for millions of shoppers faster than most retail systems were built to handle,” said Sender Shamiss, chief executive officer of ReturnPro. “This isn’t a short-term spike, it’s a new, ongoing pattern in how customers shop. Retailers who adapt their sizing, returns and exchange processes now will be in a much stronger position than those who wait it out.”

FT : Waymo explores split with Uber as robotaxi tensions deepen Partnership betw

Waymo explores split with Uber as robotaxi tensions deepen
Partnership between two groups has soured amid intense lobbying battle over rollout of autonomous vehicles

Alphabet’s Waymo is exploring options to exit its Uber partnership, with the relationship between the two tech groups souring amid an intense lobbying battle over the future of robotaxis.

The self-driving car company has held internal talks about ending its current deals with the ride-hailing group, which operates services in Austin and Atlanta, according to multiple people familiar with the matter.

Waymo has already notified Uber that it plans to enter these markets independently in January 2028 when their contract allows, the ride-hailing group said in a statement.

The relationship between the two companies, which first partnered in 2023, has deteriorated as they have become increasingly direct competitors in some markets and both lobby for robotaxi legislation that would benefit their own business at the expense of the other.

The two companies were “pursuing diverging objectives”, one person said.

Waymo and Uber have traded complaints, blaming each other for poor service and safety issues in the markets where they work together.

A break-up between the two groups is expected to dent Uber’s autonomous ambitions. It has been racing to make up lost ground after selling its in-house autonomous vehicle arm in 2020, committing more than $10bn over the past year through equity stakes and robotaxi fleet agreements.

Uber’s share price has slid more than 16 per cent in the year to date in part owing to investors’ concerns that the company will be overtaken by AV providers. Its stock fell 4 per cent on the news Waymo might walk away.

Waymo has already made inroads in some US cities and has been eroding Uber’s market share in locations such as San Francisco.

The company operates more than 3,800 vehicles across ten cities. In February, it raised $16bn at a $126bn valuation to fund its expansion.

Waymo first partnered with Uber in May 2023 to launch robotaxis in Phoenix. This was followed by deals in Austin and Atlanta, where Waymo cars are only available through the Uber app, and Uber manages the vehicle fleet with partner Avomo.

In May, Uber and Waymo parted ways in Phoenix after their current deal lapsed. The two companies have also clashed over the quality of Waymo services operated by Uber in Austin and Atlanta.

The Alphabet division has questioned the cleanliness and routing of their vehicles, the people said, while the ride-hailing group has argued that it has been hamstrung in its deployment.

In May, Waymo drew negative attention after dozens of its vehicles clogged a cul-de-sac in Atlanta. Uber was responsible for routing vehicles, the people said.

Uber has meanwhile raised concerns that the deal has unsustainable financial terms, and that Waymo’s vehicles suddenly become unavailable during bad weather. In December, Uber wrote to Waymo following a string of incidents in which vehicles passed stopped school buses in Austin.

Waymo has opted to expand into several US markets without Uber, offering bookings via its own app. It initially plans to offer direct bookings in Austin and Atlanta alongside Uber, similar to its deal with Lyft in Nashville.

Waymo has not ruled out a complete split, the people added. “We believe in a vibrant and collaborative AV ecosystem that champions innovation and provides riders with a choice in how they experience this technology,” the company said in a statement.

Uber plans to offer Waymo services in the two markets until May 2028, when its current contract concludes, the company said.

Tensions have worsened as Uber lobbies state and federal policymakers to enforce so-called “hybrid networks” where drivers and autonomous vehicles operate on the same platform.

In New Jersey, Uber lobbyists proposed that any platform offering robotaxi services also have human drivers provide at least 85 per cent of all rides during a three-year pilot programme.

Analysts say this rule would force AV companies with dedicated apps such as Tesla, Waymo and Amazon-owned Zoox to offer their services via third-party ride-hailing apps.

“Uber is trying to buy time through regulatory capture,” said Grayson Brulte, co-founder of Autnmy AI, a data intelligence firm. “They are simply advocating for measures that will preserve their market share.”

Waymo has supported high permitting costs for new AV operators that would create a barrier to smaller operators, many of which partner with Uber.

Uber said it is false that they are “anti-AV or seeking to slow AV deployment”. It said hybrid networks “get the technology to consumers sooner while giving policymakers a practical framework to manage the transition”.

IN PERSON

FT : Ship insurers restrict war coverage for Saudi Arabian cargoes in Red Sea At

Ship insurers restrict war coverage for Saudi Arabian cargoes in Red Sea
Attacks from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels threaten further disruption to global oil supplies

Top shipping insurers have told brokers that they will not sell war cargo insurance to Saudi Arabia-linked ships in the Red Sea, following attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, in a further risk to oil exports from the region.

Several of the leading marine war insurers at Lloyd’s of London market said on Friday that they would exclude vessels with any “Saudi touchpoints” from coverage, two brokers said, including ships travelling under other flags that have made past calls at Saudi ports.

The Red Sea and its port of Yanbu have become increasingly critical to the kingdom’s oil exports because of the reliance on the East—West pipeline to move crude while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

The export route can handle as much as 5mn barrels a day of Riyadh’s prewar crude exports of roughly 7mn b/d.

Some insurers are also preparing to cancel existing cargo insurance for certain Saudi-linked vessels, the two brokers added. Underwriters Ascot and Navium told brokers after Wednesday night’s attack, which targeted two oil tankers, that they were preparing to cancel policies for some Saudi-linked tonnage in the Red Sea. Navium declined to comment. Ascot did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Saudi Arabia may be “moving into the same bracket” as Israel, the US and UK in the Red Sea region, said Marsh broker Marcus Baker, with underwriters treating ships with links to these jurisdictions more cautiously owing to heightened risk.

Ships with links to the US, UK and Israel already pay higher premiums for marine war cover on cargoes in the Red Sea.

But the latest attacks represent increased risks to Saudi-linked vessels following a warning to mariners by the Iran-backed Houthi militant group on Monday that vessels calling at Saudi ports would be targeted “in any location within the operational reach of the Yemeni Armed Forces”.

Two tankers, the Saudi-flagged Encelia and Layla, were attacked on Wednesday night in strikes claimed by the Houthis. 

Several ships carrying cargoes from Saudi Arabia have either U-turned in recent days in order to take the longer voyage to Asia through the Mediterranean and via the Cape of Good Hope.

Others such as the Greek-owned Merbabu, which is carrying 700,000 barrels of crude from Yanbu to India, have turned off their GPS signals in order to transit the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea close to the Yemeni coast.

Three tankers belonging to the Saudi national shipping company Bahri in the south of the Red Sea also appear to have turned off their GPS signals.

A spokesperson for the Houthis said on X on Friday, however, that “there is no closure” of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and that the Yemeni group was conducting a “naval blockade targeting only the Saudi side”.

Two Chinese-owned tankers, the Xin Long Yang and Cosnew Lake, both carrying crude oil from Saudi Arabia, started to U-turn on Tuesday before changing course again to successfully pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Thursday. Both were broadcasting that they were “China crew & owner”.

Baker at Marsh added that it was unclear when insurance would become more widely available for Saudi-linked vessels, since this depended on “when the Houthis are going to stop their threats”.

The Information : Nvidia Shares Are Priced For Everything To Go Wrong: That Make

Nvidia Shares Are Priced For Everything To Go Wrong: That Makes No Sense


The Takeaway
  • Nvidia stock trades at 17x next year’s earnings, below its 36x five-year average.
  • Nvidia’s stock price implies minimal growth beyond 2027, analysts say.
  • Nvidia maintains dominant AI chip supplier status, with rising inference share.

Shares of Nvidia don’t trade like those of a company whose revenues are expected to rise 83% this year. Instead, the stock is priced as though everything that could go wrong in the next couple of years will go wrong. That creates an opportunity for investors willing to take a longer view.

Most semiconductor investors are chasing the stocks they think will grow the fastest over the next few years. So while shares of Nvidia have appreciated just 10% so far this year, distant rival Advanced Micro Devices is up 142%, while memory chip maker Micron, whose business has exploded thanks to demand from AI data centers, is up 213% year to date. The Philadelphia semiconductor index is up 71%.

As a result, AMD is trading at 53 times next year’s earnings, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, while Nvidia is trading near its lowest multiple of next year’s earnings since July 2021. It is trading at just under 17 times next year’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, well below its five-year average multiple of 36 times.

The bear case on Nvidia is by now well established. The explosion in its AI chip business since OpenAI released the first AI chatbot, ChatGPT, has drawn in a bunch of challengers selling their own AI chips—startups such as SambaNova, Cerebras Systems and Groq (which ended up licensing its technology to Nvidia). Meanwhile, Google, which developed its own AI chip years ago, has begun selling it as well as renting it via its cloud unit. Amazon, which also has its own AI chip, is following suit. Meta Platforms, Microsoft, OpenAI and Anthropic have all taken some steps toward developing their own AI chips.

And then there’s AMD, which later this year will begin shipping its first AI server rack system, a set of AI chips and other gear that is tightly integrated so everything works smoothly together. The system, called Helios, should be able to fulfill functions similar to those of the Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin AI chip systems Nvidia has been selling for the last few years.

There’s also the reality that Nvidia’s revenues are now so big, rapid growth is just harder for it to achieve than for smaller firms.

The main bull case for Nvidia is that its growth prospects are stronger than the stock price suggests. Nvidia’s current price, around $212 per share, implies that the company will hardly grow at all past 2027, said Morningstar analyst Brian Colello. He argues that the stock should be trading closer to $280 per share, or roughly 16 times the sales he expects Nvidia to generate in its fiscal 2029, which ends in January that year. That multiple is at a level he sees as reasonable, given his expectation that Nvidia will continue to expand its top line and adjusted earnings per share by more than 45% every year until fiscal 2029, just as it has done over the last several years.

“Nvidia trades at a cheap multiple if you go back a couple years out, so the big question is, two years from now, is there still going to be significant growth in hyperscaler capex, enterprise capex? Does Nvidia maintain most of its market share? We think those answers are yes, and that’s why the stock is undervalued,” said Colello.

Indeed, analysts expect Nvidia to grow 42% next fiscal year, which ends in January 2028, to $560 billion in sales, and then another 23% in the year after. AMD isn’t expected to grow that much faster. The chipmaker’s sales grew 34% last year to $34.6 billion. Analysts project it will grow 57% to $78 billion in sales in the year to December 2027 and 36% in the following year. That hardly justifies the premium at which AMD trades.

Even so, investors don’t think of Nvidia as a growth stock anymore. Investors in semiconductors are gravitating toward growth stories where they perceive the “most acute supply-demand imbalances, where there is a sort of untapped growth opportunity,” said John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. “Nvidia at this point doesn’t really fit any of those criteria.”

Belton has been adding to his stakes in AMD and Micron. He says he is holding onto his Nvidia shares, though he hasn’t increased his position in recent months.

“AMD is a more speculative offering,” he said. The nascent nature of AMD’s offerings means the stock could have a lot more upside “if they get it right.”

But investors may be underestimating the value of Nvidia’s long experience in making AI chips—particularly in the event of a pullback by tech firms such as OpenAI from AI investment. If that happens, many of the companies new to chip development may throw in the towel and stick with Nvidia. In other words, an AI bust would arguably hurt Nvidia less than newer chip designers whose product is still being proven.

Despite all these challenges, Nvidia remains the dominant supplier of AI chips. Its share of the market for chips used in inference, the process of running the models rather than training them, has actually risen, The Information reported recently.

For the moment, though, there’s no sign that the massive investment in new chips is slowing down. Alphabet on Wednesday increased its projection for 2026 capital expenditures and said it planned to increase that spending again next year.

Moreover, while Nvidia’s strategy of investing in potential customers—such as neoclouds Nebius and CoreWeave—has been criticized lately, that approach will likely protect its business in the event of a downturn.

>>> Weekly Market Update

This week, the reality set in that the current Middle East conflict won’t be resolved easily. The daily bombing of targets in Iran were met with drones and missiles lobbed at neighboring countries, and the Houthis entered the fray with new strikes against tankers in the Red Sea. The attacks and stepped up rhetoric sent energy prices higher, with Brent crude surging back above $100/bbl. Treasury yields followed suit: The 2-year yield hit an 18-month high above 4.30% and the 10-year popped above 4.70% for the first time since early 2025. Some better than expected PMI and consumer confidence data in Europe, and an outlier-low in US weekly jobless claims did little to change the trajectory of markets this week, as the focus remained firmly on the war and its fallout.Markets also had to contend with a new tariff framework from the Trump Administration as it seeks to replicate the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court in February. Possibly foreshadowing next week’s FOMC meeting, the ECB kept rates on hold in a unanimous decision, electing to wait for additional data before any further policy tightening at the September meeting. For the week, the S&P lost 0.6%, the DJIA was off 0.4%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1%.
Geopolitical concerns largely overshadowed corporate news, but a number a key earnings reports and presentations were on offer. Tesla shares sold off hard on its mixed Q2 results, and announced “massive” capex spending plans as it works to launch its robots and semi trucks. Meanwhile GM pleased investors with a strong quarter and raised guidance, saying they will be able to raise prices modestly in North America this year. Several defense contractors – Lockheed, RTX, and Northrop – also reported big numbers this week, benefitting from the current US war footing and need to replenish equipment and munitions. Tech names remained out of favor, as showcased by Alphabet’s strong Q2 results getting sandbagged by worries that it is spending too aggressively on the AI chase as it boosted Capex guidance by 8% to around $200B at the midpoint for this fiscal year. In a similar vein, reports said OpenAI will boost its cloud spending plans through the end of the decade by 25% to $750B from $600B. A major new AI hardware launch by AMD backed with many new partnership announcements also failed to reinvigorate the tech trade this week.

MON 07-20
(CA) US White House: Will be imposing additional 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods over alleged trade discrimination, beginning in 30 days
(US) White House considered implementing an executive order saying U.S. companies could only host Chinese models if they could guarantee security and take liability if it were breached; The source described leading AI labs or their allies approaching the administration every 3-5 months with an idea to ban open-source models - Axios
ORCL *Said to face $7B collateral bill for its Wisconsin data center from the state's Public Service Commission - FT (update)
RYA.IE Reports Q1 Net €538M v €624Me, Rev €4.38B v €4.47Be; Says a few airlines are on the edge and are going to have a very difficult winter; would not be surprised if some fail

TUES 07-21
(CN) Follow up: China said to consider tighter export controls on AI models and chips - FT
(DE) GERMANY JULY ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -77.6 V -77.7E
(RU) Russia Dep PM Novak: Fuel market partly stabilised but still difficult in some regions
(SA) Reportedly two tankers carrying Saudi oil have made U-turns in the Red Sea, following recent Houthi threats to shipping - press
(US) US and China said to hold AI talks in Sept - press
(US) REPORTEDLY PRES TRUMP IS POISED TO UNLEASH FRESH TARIFFS ON DOZENS OF COUNTRIES AS SOON AS THIS WEEK - FT [**TTN Reminder: On July 24, 2026, at 12:01 a.m. EDT, the Section 122 10% ad valorem import surcharge expires automatically by statutory operation, but the overall high-tariff environment is designed to continue with different tools]
(US) Treasury Sec Bessent: Can sanction any open source AI models if they do IP theft; Finding watermarks of U.S LLMs on many Chinese models
(US) US to redirect ~$200B research funds to AI, away from colleges - WSJ
(US) Pres. Trump: Effective August 1st, 2026, all Generic Drugs being brought into the United States will 'continue' to have a TARIFF of ZERO PERCENT for a two year period of time, after which the TARIFF will be raised to 100% for a one year period of time, and 200% thereafter. - post on Truth Social
CB Reports Q2 Core $7.26 v $6.60e, Net Premiums Written $14.7B v $15.0Be
DHI Reports Q3 $3.20 v $2.99e, Rev $9.20B v $9.16Be; Cuts FY outlook
GM Reports Q2 $3.57 v $3.13e, Rev $48.0B v $46.6Be; Raises guidance; Notes 2027 results expected to be better than 2026
HAL Reports Q2 $0.55 adj v $0.54e, Rev $5.71B v $5.48Be; Sees incremental growth in North American activity throughout the year as drilling and fracking pick up in the US
MMM Reports Q2 $2.40 adj v $2.27e, Adj Rev $6.50B v $6.40Be; Raises outlook citing continued momentum
MMM Continuing to track ahead of Investor Day targets - earnings slides
NOC Reports Q2 $7.68 adj v $6.84e, Rev $10.9B v $10.8Be; Raises outlook
NOVN.CH Reports Q2 Core EPS $2.41 v $2.20e, Rev $14.4B v $13.9Be
OPENAI.IPO Implementing stricter controls on infrastructure and strengthening model alignment safeguards after disclosing Hugging Face cyber breach was caused by an OpenAI model - company statement
SCHW Reports Q2 $1.62 adj v $1.53e, Rev $7.07B v $6.89Be
SMCI Reports prelim Q4 Rev 'near low end of $11.0-12.5B' v $11.9Be (prior: $11.0-12.5B); Gross margin 15-17% v 8.2-8.4% guided; Record backlog
UHR.CH Reports H1 (CHF) Net 16M v 84.3Me, EBIT 52.0M v 68M y/y, Rev 3.12B v 3.05Be
WAL Reports Q2 $2.36 [GAAP] v $2.33e, Net Rev $996M v $974Me - filing (update)

WEDS 07-22
(CN) Two Chinese supertankers laden with Saudi crude oil head towards Bab El-Mandeb Strait for exit from the Red Sea - [timing uncertain]; cites data - financial press
(CN) US FCC votes to bar sales of devices in the US that contain components from Chinese companies posing national security risks
(IR) IRAN INTERIOR MIN: CURRENTLY NO NEGOTIATIONS WITH U.S; EXCHANGE OF MESSAGES IS POSSIBLE - MEHR NEWS
(JP) BOJ SAID TO BE CLOSE TO STAGE OF ANCHORING INFLATION AND NOT SPURRING IT; OPEN TO RAISING RATES FASTER THAN EVERY 6 MONTHS - PRESS
(KR) SOUTH KOREA Q2 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 3.7% V 3.5%E
(QA) QatarEnergy prepares to extend LNG force majeure into Oct [**TTN Note: October extension would exceed the market’s recent expectation that disruptions could fade in July or production resume around September]
(RU) Russia reportedly no longer willing to return some occupied territories to Ukraine as part of any deal to end the war, blaming failed agreements with US; Plans to retain them as buffer zones - press (update)
(SA) UKMTO reports incident in the Red Sea, tanker struck by an unknown projectile; Crew is fighting a fire onboard; No casualties or environmental damage reported
(UK) JUN CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.7%E
(US) TREASURY $13B 20-YEAR BOND AUCTION DRAWS 5.163% V 4.927% PRIOR, BID-TO-COVER 2.64 V 2.75 PRIOR
(US) PRES. TRUMP: FROM THIS POINT FORWARD, ANY TIME THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN SHOOTS AT A SHIP IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, WHETHER IT BE BY MISSILE, ROCKET, DRONE, OR ANY OTHER DEVICE OR WEAPON, THE UNITED STATES WILL BOMB AND DESTROY ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT
ALO.FR Reports Q1 Rev €4.73B v €4.67Be; Affirms outlook
AMD *SIGNS MAJOR CHIPS AND INVESTMENT AGREEMENT WITH ANTHROPIC; TO INVEST $5B INTO ANTHROPIC, WHILE ANTHROPIC TO USE 2GW OF AMD CHIPS – WSJ
BA Reportedly Trump Admin's Boeing deal with China is under strain citing China's demands for parts and services guarantees to avoid potential US export restrictions – Politico
BNO Brent oil futures hit $95/bbl (1st time in ~6 weeks)
DSV.DK Reports Q2 (DKK) Adj Net 3.47B v 3.06B y/y, Rev 76.7B v 62.0B y/y
EQNR 05:30T Earnings Call: European gas storage is only 53%, more than 15 percentage points below normal, and Equinor expects it to remain below 80% before winter.
GEV Reports Q2 GAAP $2.47 (may not compare) v $3.17e, Rev $11.1B v $10.8Be; FCF $5.1B v $194M y/y
GOOGL Reports Q2 GAAP $9.11* v $2.87e, Rev (ex-TAC) $103.6B v $101.2Be; Gemini app has 950M MAUs; Has not sold any shares under ATM program
GOOGL Raises FY26 Capex 8% at the midpoint to $195-205B v $196Be (prior: $180-190B) - earnings call comments
IBM Reports Q2 $2.93 adj v $2.93e, Rev $17.2B v $17.2B prelim; Trims outlook; Still on track to deliver quantum computer by 2029
IBM 17:00 ET Q2 earnings call: June reflected NOT broad IT-budget contraction; About one-third to 40% of the low-teens large deals that slipped in late June had already closed during the first three weeks of Q3; management normally expects two-thirds to three-fourths to close within six months, supporting its view that demand was deferred rather than destroyed, though exact monthly timing remains difficult to predict.
KNX Reports Q2 $0.63 v $0.49e, Rev $2.10B v $2.01Be
KNX 17:30 ET Q2 earnings call: Truckload conditions tightened rapidly in recent months: spot rates are running well ahead of normal seasonality and tender rejections have reached their highest levels since 2021
NOW Reports Q2 $0.90 v $0.86e, GAAP Rev $3.99B v $3.92Be
OPENAI.IPO *RAISES PROJECTED CLOUD SPENDING 25% TO $750B FROM $600B THROUGH 2030 – WSJ
TEL Reports Q3 $2.94 adj v $2.85e, Rev $5.16B v $5.00Be
TIETO.FI 03:00 ET Q2 earnings call: Customers continue postponing large transformation programs while assessing AI’s impact, economics and hardware costs; spending is shifting toward targeted AI use cases, data foundations and smaller agile teams. Tieto entered 2026 with an unusually high exposure to time-and-material consulting, amplifying the downturn versus some peers.

THRS 07-23
(EU) ECB LEAVES KEY RATES UNCHANGED; AS EXPECTED
(EU) ECB Chief Lagarde: Recent data points to some improvement in economic outlook; indicators suggest it will remain modest - Prepared Remarks
(EU) ECB Chief Lagarde: Decision to keep policy steady was unanimous; some members asked themselves if a hike was needed, but there was no push for a hike today - Q&A
(EU) ECB Officials are reportedly ready to raise rates in Sept - press
(EU) EURO ZONE JULY ADVANCE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -15.9 V -17.0E
(IR) US Pres Trump: Seriously considers restarting major combat ops in Iran; Doesn't have a deadline, but is close to a decision - Axios interview
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 187K V 211KE (lowest since Jan 2024); CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.796M V 1.809ME
(US) USTR Greer: Announces 10-12% new Section 301 tariffs related to forced labor, replacing section 122 tariffs set to expire tomorrow; Will impose 12.5% tariffs on nations that don't ban forced labor; Oil, gas, fertilizer, and certain food stuffs will be exempted
(US) US Treasury FX Policy Report: China is not labeled a currency manipulator, but it stands out among trading partners for lack of transparency on exchange rate practices and policies
(US) WEEKLY EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: +32 BCF VS. +33 BCF TO +35 BCF INDICATED RANGE
(ZA) SOUTH AFRICA CENTRAL BANK (SARB) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 7.00%; NOT EXPECTED
AAL Reports Q2 $0.15 v $0.03e, Rev $16.7B v $16.7Be; Guides Q3 weak and cuts FY guidance citing recent increase in cost of fuel
ACI Reports Q1 $0.42 v $0.55e, Rev $24.9B v $24.8Be; Cuts outlook noting core grocery faced increasing pressure from softer industry unit trends and a more cautious consumer; Consolidates from 11 divisions to four regions; Centralizes center store merchandising
AMD TTN Summary AMD Keynote: Helios in "Full production;" We're still in the very early innings for what's possible with AI tech; Demand for AI processing curb continues to steepen - Keynote
Brent oil retests the $100/barrel level
BT.A.UK Reports Q1 Adj EBITDA £2.01B v £2.03B y/y, Adj Rev £4.32B v £4.34B y/y
BX Exec: Pace of withdrawals slowing at flagship private credit fund - FT
CLF Reports Q2 -$0.20 v -$0.20e, Rev $5.23B v $5.15Be
DOW Reports Q2 $1.44 v $1.25e, Rev $12.1B v $11.6Be
DOW Guides Q3 EBITDA $1.75B v $1.85Be; Affirms FY26 Capex $2.5B (prior: ~$2.5B); China consumer demand remains soft and uneven - earnings slides
HBAN Reports Q2 $0.39 adj v $0.39e, Rev $2.86B v $2.85Be
INTC Reports Q2 $0.38 adj v $0.21e, Rev $16.1B v $14.4Be; Guides Q3 strong; Increasing Capex for 2026-2027
LLY Confirms Phase 3 retatrutide data in obesity and type 2 diabetes and severe obesity with cardiovascular disease; Plans BLA submission in Q1 2027 [**TTN Note: Novo’s CagriSema delivered 15.7% under an adherence estimand in T2D, versus 20.8% here, widening Lilly’s clinical moat where payer access is likely to concentrate]
MXL Reports Q2 $0.35 v $0.33e, Rev $168.9M v $165Me
NEM Reports Q2 $2.10 v $2.05e, Rev $6.12B v $6.35Be
NOKIA.FI Reports Q2 €0.07 v €0.06e, Rev €4.82B v €4.92Be; Remains on track with its new San Jose Fab to begin ramping production later in Q4 2026
OPEC+ reportedly likely to raise output quotas for Sept to 188K barrels per day at Aug meeting – press
REP.ES 05:30 ET Q2 earnings call: 45–50% of Russian refining capacity is reportedly offline, removing roughly 0.9–1.0 mbbl/d of middle-distillate exports; July’s collapse of Strait of Hormuz peace negotiations has renewed “extreme volatility” after the crisis removed an estimated 1.3B barrels of oil supply and shut nearly 3M bbl/day of refining capacity; management sees actual physical supply disruption rather than merely geopolitical risk.
ROG.CH Reports H1 (CHF) Core EPS 10.85 v 11.08 y/y, Rev 30.4B v 30.9B y/y
RTX Reports Q2 $1.89 adj v $1.66e, Rev $24.7B v $22.8Be; Raises guidance; To sell Raytheon's Blue Canyon Technologies business for $620M; Demand remains robust
TMUS Reports Q2 $3.13 adj v $2.52e, Rev $22.8B v $22.8Be
TMUS Exec: Management will not increase device subsidies as smartphone prices rise, meaning “customers will have to pay more” heading into the holiday season - earnings call

FRI 07-24
(US) President Trump: Will launch Section 301 trade probe and tariffs against EU practice of 'robbing' American companies, citing latest $1B fine against Google - Truth Social post
(IR) Reportedly China has encouraged Pakistan and Iran to explore path to reopen talks with US - press
(IR) US and UK reportedly to convene conference on the Strait of Hormuz in London next week – Axios
(EU) ECB’s Lane (Ireland, Chief Economist): We will guide inflation back to its target in the next year or so; At the moment, our job is more reactive
(US) JUN NEW HOME SALES: 628K V 607KE
(US) JULY PRELIMINARY S&P MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.8 V 54.4E (11th month of expansion)
(DE) GERMANY JULY PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.2 V 50.5E (6th month of expansion)
(JP) JAPAN'S PM TAKAICHI SAID TO CONSIDER CABINET RESHUFFLE - LOCAL PRESS [**TTN Note: July 25 is the effective end of the extended Diet session, making it a likely near-term marker for any reshuffle decision or announcement]
(UK) JULY PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.8 V 52.0E (9th month of expansion)
QCOM Said to inform customers that prices will go up by doubt-digit %; Qualcomm can no longer adsorb increasing costs - press citing a letter
LW Reports Q4 $0.87 v $0.62e, Rev $1.77B v $1.70Be
VOW3.DE Reports Q2 Op €3.47B v €4.07Be, Rev €82.4B v €81.7Be; Cuts Rev outlook; Says environment for the automotive industry remains extremely challenging and currently planned initiatives are not sufficient
VZ Reports Q2 $1.30 adj v $1.27e, Rev $34.3B v $35.3Be

(ZeroHedge) Betting On TACO? Oil Slides Despite Unraveling 'Diplomacy' In Iran;

Betting On TACO? Oil Slides Despite Unraveling 'Diplomacy' In Iran; Trump Warns China & Russia

Summary
  • Diplomacy signals emerge: Pakistan is reportedly exploring renewed US-Iran talks, while Trump is set to meet Netanyahu next week amid the escalating conflict.
  • War continues with 13th straight night of bombing: The US carried out a 13th straight night of strikes on Iran as Tehran launched fresh attacks on US-linked targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq.
  • Oil eases: Crude prices fell by week's end despite continued fighting, as scant reports of possible diplomatic efforts outweighed ongoing regional attacks.
  • Trump warns Russia, China: Trump cautioned China and Russia against supplying arms or targeting help to Iran.
  • Political pressure grows at home: A new Fox News poll found most Americans oppose the Iran war, while reports say Trump is increasingly frustrated as the conflict drags on.Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
* * *
Oil Eases by Week's End on Signs of 'Diplomacy Lite'
Somewhat surprisingly, oil prices are pushing lower by week's close, especially after a succession of perhaps 'diplomacy-lite' headlines; however, the reality still remains is that the bombing campaign is escalating... and typically the region witnesses the biggest bombs away on a weekend, with markets closed:
  • Pakistan exploring path toward resuming US-Iran talks: Reuters
  • Pakistan's push to resume talks follows pressure from China: Reuters
  • Houthis say they don't seek to close key Bab al-Mandeb Strait (only for Saudi shipping, they say)
  • Trump to meet Netanyahu at the White House on Tuesday amid Iran escalation

Trump on China, Russia Assistance to Iran
President Trump took to Truth Social to warn China and Russia against giving or selling arms to Iran, saying: "If they did, it would be very bad for them". However he also sought to clarify: "In my opinion, (they are) not participating."
Doing so was "certainly not in their best interests" - the president added. The president addressed a Reuters report that alleged Iranian strikes on CIA targets in the Gulf earlier in the war is being investigated, on concerns that Russia or China may have helped with such targeting.
Xi "told me he would not," Trump wrote. Was there a pinky promise?...
Iraqi Prime Minister Denies NYT Report on Ceasefire Offer
The latest little peace overture by Washington widely reported Thursday night was apparently a big nothingburger, as on Friday the Iraqi prime minister’s office has denied a New York Times report claiming that Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal delivered to Tehran by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi.
The fresh statement from the prime minister's office said what was published in the Times was "entirely unfounded" and had "no relation to reality." The statement underscored the temporary nature of the proposal and that it was the "only offer on the table" and still left the question of control over the Strait of Hormuz unresolved - and so Tehran was uninterested.
It's also the reality that Tehran wants to see Trump sweat and impose economic and political costs particularly ahead of the midterms in November, where Congressional Republicans must face voters over failing to rein in Trump's Iran war. The Iranians continue to openly voice this, for example in the following from the parliament speaker:

13th Straight Night of US Bombing
Meanwhile, in what is becoming a brutal, nightly routine, US Central Command (CENTCOM) has wrapped up its 13th consecutive wave of airstrikes against Iran. The Pentagon said it targeted military command centers, drone storage facilities, communication networks, and coastal surveillance sites.
Iranian state media reported overnight into Friday heavy explosions rocking major hubs across the country, including Khorramabad, Jask, Ahvaz, Bandar Abbas, and the strategic outpost of Qeshm Island. Iranian media further said a US missile strike left four dead and five injured in the key industrial and transportation hub of Ahvaz.
As the bombs fall, Tehran is still signaling that military pressure won't force a cheap surrender - with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi lashing out at the US escalation, warning that "mindless aggression" will only see Trump pay a "heavier price" for a deal to end the war.
More Iran Retaliation on Gulf
Iranian retaliation on US-linked sites in the Gulf have continued at the same steady pace, with on Friday Bahrain's military having intercepted "several treacherous Iranian air attacks" - according to the general command of the Bahrain Defense Force.
The Bahraini military further denounced Iran's "systematic hostile approach" and "criminal attacks targeting civilians". The statement emphasized, "The general command emphasises that the deliberate use of missiles and drones to target civilians and private property constitutes a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law."
Throughout the morning the Iranian military's targets also included locations in Jordan, Kuwait, and northern Iraq. Sky News is reporting that "Explosions were also heard near a base hosting the US in Iraq, near the Erbil International Airport."
Fox Poll says Iran War More Unpopular Then Ever
Fox feeding its Boomer audience some Freedom Viagra with a helping of war crimes on the side:

But Fox News also reports the results of its latest poll which finds 56% oppose the ongoing American military action against Iran, including 40% who "strongly" oppose. "Disapproval of President Donald Trump’s handling of Iran hit a record high in July," Fox writes.
"A majority of voters oppose U.S. military action, and nearly two thirds think the conflict will last at least a year," the report says.
A Frustrated Trump is in 'Revenge Mode'
This as The Wall Street Journal does an entire investigative report which should be laughably obvious to any careful observer to what's been going on and the deepening quagmire the US is getting itself into:
As the war in Iran enters its fifth month, Trump is increasingly frustrated that a conflict he once thought would be over in a matter of weeks has dragged on with no end in sight, administration officials and others close to the president said.
Some of Trump’s advisers now worry that the war—which has resulted in higher prices, falling approval ratings and the deaths of more than a dozen U.S. servicemembers—is consuming his presidency and damaging Republicans’ already dim prospects in the coming midterm elections.
Alarmingly, the WSJ noted that Trump seems in "revenge mode" against Tehran, and apparently sees no other options than to try and keep bombing his way out of it. Of course, this script has been written many times - not only during the "Global War on Terror" and this millennium's "forever wars" - but going all the way back to the Vietnam war.
NBC: The four service members being flown from the Middle East to Dover Air Force Base were 28-year-old Angel S. Rampersad of New York, 30-year-old Michael Emmanuel Swinton of North Carolina, 25-year-old Tyler James Feehan of Hawaii and 19-year-old Isabella Gonzales of Texas.
President Trump attends a dignified transfer on Wednesday.
War Takes "Toll" on White House: WSJ
The war is said to be taking a heavy "toll" on Trump and his top officials. According to more of what's also been glaringly obvious for anyone who has had a shred of independent thought:
The war is splitting the conservative coalition over which Trump once had an iron grip, worrying some Republicans close to the White House. Longtime Trump allies such as Fox News host Laura Ingraham have used their platforms to express concerns about how the war might affect Republicans in November’s midterm elections. On Monday, she said the “clock is ticking” to the midterms.
“Netanyahu has led us into a horrible conflict filled with lies,” Steve Bannon, a longtime Trump adviser, said. “People can see with their own eyes what’s going on.”
While this part about Netanyahu is true, it is ultimately President Trump who made the decision, after for years prior - and especially on the campaign trail - articulately spelling out that attacking Iran and starting new Mideast wars would be one of most idiotic foreign policy moves a president could make.
Trump on Thursday said he would take funds from Iran to pay for damage inflicted on US bases and assets throughout the war. Iran responded in the following...

Perhaps the utter folly of Operation Epic Fury has finally begun to dawn on the president. WSJ also observed that "Last month, the president was so excited at the prospect of signing the memorandum of understanding with Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that he was dismissive of Republican allies who said the Iranians would never stick to the agreement, according to a senior administration official. He wanted it to be over, Trump told them."

TechcCrunch : Anduril reportedly in talks to raise funding at $100B valuation, m

Anduril reportedly in talks to raise funding at $100B valuation, more than 3x last year’s mark

Defense tech company Anduril is said to be raising a new round of capital that may push its valuation up by a whopping $40 billion to about $100 billion, Reuters reported, citing anonymous sources.

The company, which raised $5 billion in May at a $61 billion valuation — itself roughly double the $30.5 billion valuation it landed in its June 2025 Series G round — may be structuring the fundraise as a two-stage process, with the second stage bringing in investors at a higher valuation. Both tranches could be closed within the year, Reuters reported.

The news comes as the defense tech industry experiences an unprecedented revival, spurred by demand for drones, autonomous craft, and AI’s role in warfare, as war rages both in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. In the first six months of the year, the sector saw venture funding more than double to over $12 billion, eclipsing the nearly $10 billion that startups in the space raised in all of 2025.

Anduril has benefited from this demand, signing contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense, Air Force, and Army; the Dutch Ministry of Defence; NATO; the U.K. Ministry of Defence; Poland; and more.

The company said in May that it had more than doubled its revenue to $2.2 billion in 2025 compared to a year earlier.

Other startups have cashed in, too: Military aircraft maker Shield AI in March raised $1.5 billion, Mach Industries quadrupled its valuation to $1.8 billion last month, and Europe’s Helsing this month raised $1.8 billion at an $18 billion valuation.

A common thread across these deals is a shift toward cheaper, more expendable hardware — often called “attritable” systems — rather than the expensive-to-replace equipment that’s defined defense contracting for decades. Mach CEO Ethan Thornton has said Mach is designing systems for the current era of warfare at significantly lower cost than traditional defense contractors, citing Ukraine’s use of autonomous drones as a model.

Separately, both Mach and Anduril have also moved to secure their own propulsion supply. Mach acquired solid rocket motor maker Exquadrum for $50 million in May, while the Pentagon has funded Anduril’s efforts to expand domestic solid rocket motor manufacturing capacity — moves aimed at a supply bottleneck that predates and cuts across the low-cost-weapons trend.

Anduril’s investors include Thrive Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Founders Fund, ICONIQ, Flux Capital, Greycroft, Altimeter, 1789 Capital, and current U.S. Vice President JD Vance, according to PitchBook.

Anduril did not immediately return a request for comment.

WSJ : FDA Committee Votes in Favor of Several Popular and Controversial Peptides

FDA Committee Votes in Favor of Several Popular and Controversial Peptides
It’s still up to the FDA to decide whether to greenlight the substances for compounding pharmacies to make—and pave the way for a peptide gold rush

Biohackers, longevity enthusiasts and alternative medicine doctors want the peptide BPC-157. Now compounders may be one step closer to lawfully providing it.

At a series of hearings on Thursday and Friday, the Food and Drug Administration’s Pharmacy Compounding Advisory Committee voted in favor of easing restrictions on five out of six peptides up for consideration, with votes on one more peptide still to go. After the hearings conclude, it will be up to the FDA to decide whether to greenlight the substances for compounders to make—and pave the way for a peptide gold rush.

Today the term “peptides” often refers to a category of injectable substances that promise physical transformations and haven’t undergone regulatory approval. On social media, influencers, alternative medicine doctors and everyday people have promoted them for everything from muscle recovery to more youthful skin. These peptides are largely sold through an online gray market, where they’re labeled “for research use only” or “not for human consumption.” Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has advocated for loosening restrictions on the substances.

The rise of peptides has been controversial. Doctors have cited health risks, and the substances have not been studied extensively. Some compounders have already begun making the drugs despite FDA restrictions. Should the FDA decide to authorize the peptides for compounding, there would be more regulatory oversight. What remains unclear is whether that will make them safer.

At the hearing, committee members—including pharmacists, doctors, clinic owners, academics and regulatory experts—evaluated each peptide. Some of the committee members had ties to peptide businesses. The FDA generally follows advisory committee recommendations but has no obligation to do so.

The FDA’s career scientists recommended against greenlighting any of the peptides on the list, which come in formulations including injections, nasal sprays and topical creams. They cited the limited clinical studies and a lack of evidence indicating their effectiveness. Because of inconsistent chemical descriptions and names, they argued that it is impossible to know exactly which substances are being compounded. They also stated that there are FDA drugs approved for the same conditions being evaluated.

Last year, two women became critically ill at a longevity conference in Las Vegas after they received peptide injections at a booth. An investigation was unable to conclude exactly why the women became ill, but regulators in Nevada fined the doctor, who wasn’t licensed in their state, along with two other people in connection with the incident. A letter to the doctor from the Nevada State Board of Pharmacy said one of the “peptide cocktails” was believed to contain BPC-157 and MOTS-c, two peptides the FDA committee voted in favor of.

Along with voting in favor of the popular BPC-157, the committee also approved TB-500. BPC-157 was evaluated for use in ulcerative colitis and TB-500 for wound-healing. The two are often sold together online and called “the Wolverine Stack,” with claims it can help with everything from muscle and tissue repair to reduced inflammation. Joe Rogan called the combination of the two peptides “f—ing phenomenal” on his popular podcast. The committee also voted favorably for the peptides KPV, MOTS-c and Epitalon.

The committee voted against one peptide called Emideltide, evaluated for opioid withdrawal, chronic insomnia, and narcolepsy. David Pope, a pharmacist who voted affirmatively for other peptides, voted “no” on this one, citing a complex regimen and “potentially dangerous downstream consequences.”

Proponents argued that creating an accessible pathway for peptides would help doctors, patients and regulators gather more evidence about whether or not they work. Some patients said the gray-market products had helped them when the traditional medical system didn’t.

Under current regulations, compounders are not required to report serious negative side effects associated with compounded drug products to the FDA. FDA officials said the agency does not have the authority to require it in this case.

Scott Brunner, chief executive of compounding industry group the Alliance for Pharmacy Compounding, who spoke in support of peptides, said in an interview that adverse-event reporting should be required.

“There is not the sort of substantive safety data for these drugs that FDA would normally require,” he said. “The moment that we’re in is rather extraordinary, and it calls for a special approach.”

WSJ : Bahrain, Kuwait Warplanes Struck Iran in Rare Gulf Retaliation The strikes

Bahrain, Kuwait Warplanes Struck Iran in Rare Gulf Retaliation
The strikes earlier this month reflect Arab reckoning with a lengthy war that threatens to draw them in even more deeply

  • Bahrain and Kuwait secretly sent jets to attack military sites inside Iran, marking their first such direct retaliation against Tehran.
  • U.A.E. provided intelligence and defensive air cover for the strikes, which targeted Iranian drone- and missile-storage depots.
  • The strikes follow weeks of Iranian attacks targeting Bahrain and Kuwait, both of which host U.S. military bases.

Bahrain and Kuwait secretly sent jets to attack sites inside Iran, their first such direct retaliation against Tehran and an indication of the difficult position Arab states find themselves in as the war grinds on, people familiar with the matter said.

The airstrikes early this month targeted drone- and missile-storage depots, among other military sites, some of the people said. The United Arab Emirates—which attacked Iran multiple times early in the war—provided intelligence on targets and defensive air cover for the strikes in a sign of budding Arab cooperation in confronting Iran, those people said.

Iran for weeks has focused its retaliatory strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait, both of which host American military bases. The two Persian Gulf states have relatively small air forces, armed with U.S. and European jets, but didn’t want to let Tehran continue to hit them with impunity, the people said.

The U.A.E. said it supports a reduction in tensions in the region, including a full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for Gulf oil exports. Its Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain and said it “stands in full solidarity with these states and reaffirms its support for all measures aimed at safeguarding their security and stability.”

Kuwaiti and Bahraini government spokespeople didn’t reply to requests for comment.


Their dilemma is reflected more broadly across the Gulf, whose Arab governments are stuck between a war they didn’t want and a much larger and aggrieved neighbor in Iran.

Collectively they absorbed the bulk of the punishment inflicted by Iran throughout the war and are now reckoning with the likelihood of an extended standoff that threatens their security and economies.

“The war continuing in the manner that it is playing out right now is their worst-case scenario,” said Dina Esfandiary, a Middle East analyst at Bloomberg Economics. “That is because it does not give them the opportunity to rebuild and maintain their image as a haven for stability in an unstable region. It affects their very models.”

The U.A.E. got involved in the conflict early on, carrying out dozens of airstrikes against Iran from the beginning of the war and continuing through the day after a ceasefire was announced in April, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Iran has generally avoided striking the country in recent weeks, though it hit two Emirati oil tankers earlier this month.

Kuwait and Bahrain are in a particularly tough spot. For decades, neither country has been on good terms with Iran, Esfandiary said, and they have been prime targets in the recent wave of fighting. Now Iran is stepping up its attacks to hit more critical infrastructure.

Kuwait’s Foreign Ministry said Sunday that Iran targeted a power plant and water desalination facility, calling it a threat to its citizens and a dangerous escalation.

Countries like Oman and Qatar have long triangulated between Iran and the West and have shown little appetite for confrontation with Tehran. Saudi Arabia joined the U.A.E. in attacking Iran earlier in the war but is currently evaluating its position, people familiar with the matter said.

Arab governments in the region had hoped the war would end quickly and let them get back to focusing on their economies. But the conflict is now in its fifth month with no sign of either side getting what it wants or backing down.

Gulf oil exports have been crippled by Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. A new threat emerged this week with a Red Sea blockade and strikes on shipping by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia. Tourism in the region has dried up, and investment is under pressure.

Arab governments are now weighing whether they might need to become more aggressive in trying to pry open their critical trade routes.

“I think Gulf countries are beginning to realize that this war will continue for some time now,” said Umer Karim, a researcher focused on Saudi policy and Gulf geopolitics at the University of Birmingham. “This eventually means that they would have to confront Iran openly.”

Governments are even starting to countenance the idea of regime change in Tehran, he said, “because existing in the same neighborhood with this Iranian regime will effectively mean subservience to Iranian hegemony.”