- Bayer (BAYN TH) +2.8%
- Bayer Raises Profit Outlook Helped by Strong Demand for Drugs
- Philips (PHI1 TH) +1.3%
- Philips Profitability Beats Expectations on Cost Cutting, Sales
- Infineon (IFX TH) -2.7%
- Fuchs (FPE3 TH) -2.7%
- Fuchs Faces Increasing Normalization, Cut to Hold at Jefferies
- Nokia (NOA3 TH) -3%
- Aixtron (AIXA TH) -3%
- ASML (ASME TH) -3.1%
- Adidas (ADS TH) -3.2%
- Adidas Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 156 euros
- Fresenius Medical Care (FME TH) -3.4%
- Fresenius Medical Care 3Q Operating Income Meets Estimates
- Frontline (HF6 TH) -3.9%
- Soitec (SOH1 TH) -3.9%
- AT&S (AUS TH) -4.3%
Anthropic (ANT) Pre-IPO Initiation | Graham Advisors | 3 November 2026
Please find attached our pre-IPO reference note on Anthropic, updated for the amended S-1 filed yesterday (2 November).
VERDICT: AVOID at a $1.5-2.0T print. Exceptional franchise, wrong terms.
- Fair value $1.05-1.3T, i.e. $62-77 per fully diluted share
- Talk of $1.5-2.0T implies $89-118 per share
- GA7 thresholds pass only below ~$820bn, under the May Series H mark
WHAT THE S-1/A SHOWED (2 Nov):
- Q3 revenue $16.96bn, +47% q/q (Q2: +144%)
- GAAP operating loss $567m after +$974m in Q2: the only profitable quarter lasted one quarter
- $5.0bn of costlier short-term compute + $2.0bn donation charge
- Adjusted operating margin 14.5% vs 19.3% in Q2
- Revenue per compute dollar $1.71 vs $2.08 in Q2
- Total commitments $895.4bn (~6.8x cash), ~$70bn due within 12 months
- Price cuts cost ~$600m of Q3 revenue
- Price range and share count still blank
KEY POINTS IN THE NOTE:
- Circular deals map: Amazon, Google, Broadcom, Microsoft, Nvidia, AMD and SpaceXAI are investors, lenders and suppliers at once
- Two convertibles: Amazon notes ($6.2bn principal, $108.6bn fair value) and an undrawn $42bn Broadcom facility
- Microsoft and Meta cutting internal Claude use; top 5 customers ~21%
- DoW dispute: D.C. Circuit upheld the supply-chain designation (25 Sep)
- Governance: founders hold 50.1% of votes; Class A elects no directors
INDEX AND TIMING:
- Roadshow no earlier than 10 Nov; pricing reported week of 16 Nov
- CRSP/Russell ~5 trading days after listing, MSCI ~10, Nasdaq-100 ~15
- We estimate $25-35bn of index-driven demand vs a $100bn+ deal
- Nasdaq-100 entry could fall on 9 Dec, the same day as the FOMC
- Supply: Meta up to $98bn equity programme; 23 lock-up releases in year one; ~180-day window mid-May 2027
[ATTACHMENT: Anthropic_PreIPO_Graham_EN_3Nov2026.pdf]
Laurent Chekroun
+41 79 350 71 09
This communication does not constitute investment advice.
Restricted distribution: professional counterparties only.
I have a french version if interested
Sources :
DAX:
- Bayer (BAYN TH) +2.2%
- Bayer Boosts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast
- Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -1.8%
- Fresenius Medical Care (FME TH) -2.5%
- Fresenius Medical Care 3Q Operating Income Meets Estimates
- MTU Aero (MTX TH) -2.5%
- Infineon (IFX TH) -2.7%
- Adidas (ADS TH) -3.3%
- Adidas Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 156 euros
MDAX:
- Schaeffler (SHA0 TH) +1.3%
- Evonik (EVK TH) -1.6%
- Evonik Sees Strong Earnings, Bolstering Defense Against BASF
- Jenoptik (JEN TH) -1.7%
- Siltronic (WAF TH) -2.5%
- Aixtron (AIXA TH) -2.7%
- Alstom Plunges After Issuing Outlook Cut: Stoxx 600 Sector Wrap
- SUSS MicroTec (SMHN TH) -3.3%
SDAX:
- Friedrich Vorwerk Group SE (VH2 TH) +1%
- PVA TePla (TPE TH) -1.8%
- PVA TePla Investor Raised Voting Rights to 3.58% on Oct. 26
- Grenke (GLJ TH) -2%
- SMA Solar (S92 TH) -2.2%
- Hugo Boss (BOSS TH) -4.4%
- Hugo Boss Cuts FY Ebit Forecast, Misses Estimates (1)
- TeamViewer (TMV TH) -9.5%
- TeamViewer Cuts FY Revenue at Constant Currency Forecast
After Hours Summary: HLIT +16.5%, AEHR +15.3%, IBTA +13.0%, FN +11.8%, LIFE +10.4%, AEIS +9.6%, LSCC +7.2% higher on earnings; CWH -11.0%, BMRN -5.1%, PPLI -4.8%, WAY -4.3%, PLTR -3.6%, AAPL -3.3%, BWXT -3.2% lower on earnings
After Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance:HLIT +16.5%, AEHR +15.3%, IBTA +13.0%, FN +11.8%, LIFE +10.4%, AEIS +9.6%, LSCC +7.2%, NBIX +6.6%, EVER +4.9%, PAY +4.1%, HLF +4.1%, ALSN +3.9%, VOYG +3.7%, CE +2.4%, CLX +2.3%, PS +2.1%, VNOM +2.0%, CC +1.4%, EQH +1.3%, KRYS +1.3%, VRTX +1.2%, CHKP +1.1%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news:CVGI +16.1% (Appoints David Ruppel president and CEO effective Nov. 9, succeeding retiring James Ray.), BE +3.3% (Signed a nonbinding MOU with California Resources to evaluate 1 GW-plus of fuel-cell power with carbon capture.), RRGB +2.0% (Reported preliminary third-quarter comparable restaurant revenue growth of 3.9% and delayed its 10-Q filing.), BIOA +1.7% (Retains $30 million upfront payment after Novartis terminated the BrainTransporter collaboration, recognizing the remainder as 2026 revenue.)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance:CWH -11.0%, BMRN -5.1%, PPLI -4.8%, WAY -4.3%, PLTR -3.6%, AAPL -3.3%, BWXT -3.2%, ON -2.8%, AESI -2.8%, FANG -2.4%, MSA -1.9%, CALX -1.7%, BSM -1.6%, VVX -1.4%, TEM -1.3%, NMFC -1.1%, CRC -1.0%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news:DRUG -6.5% (FDA placed Bright Minds’ planned U.S. Phase 2 BMB-101 DEE trial on partial clinical hold over toxicity and data concerns.), INGM -3.3% (Launches secondary offering of 11 million shares by its principal stockholder, alongside a planned 1 million-share repurchase.), GRND -2.0% (Completed PurposeMed acquisition for $250 million, plus up to $70 million contingent on 2027 performance targets.), ULCC -1.5% (Appointed Michael Delehant COO and promoted James Fenner to chief revenue officer as two senior vice presidents depart.), SR -1.4% (Filed a Missouri rate case seeking 11%-15% residential bill increases, with new rates expected next fall.), TLS -1.3% (Appoints Mark Griffin CEO, while longtime CEO John Wood transitions to executive chairman effective immediately.)
>>> Up
* Aixtron Gains; Alstom, Euronext Fall: Stoxx 600 Premarket
* Amazon Raised to Buy at Phillip Secs; PT $330
* Anora Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 5.10 euros
* BAT Raised to Buy at Goldman (+)
* Boohoo Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 33 pence
* CaixaBank Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 14 euros
* Eli Lilly PT Raised to $1,600 from $1,400 at Freedom Capital
* Eli Lilly PT Raised to $1,600 from $1,400 at Freedom Capital
* Fugro Raised to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 7.50 euros (+)
* Hoegh Autoliners Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 205 kroner
* Italgas Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 10.50 euros
* KH Group Oyj Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 90 euro cents
* Panostaja Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 33 euro cents
* Rivian Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $17
* Silex Microsystems Raised to Hold at Nordea
* Smartcraft Group Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 20 kronor
* Wallenius Wilhelmsen Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 195 kroner
>>> Down
* Aker BP Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 400 kroner
>>> Down
* Aker BP Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 400 kroner
* Avolta Cut to Sector Perform at RBC
* BCP Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 1.21 euros
* Beiersdorf Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 88 euros
* Cembra Money Bank Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 78 Swiss francs
* Dr Martens Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 60 pence
* Engcon Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Equinor Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 440 kroner
* Erste Bank Polska Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 836 zloty
* Future Plc Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 385 pence
* Haleon Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 365 pence
* Mondi Cut to Hold at Investec; PT 800 pence
* Polytec Holding Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 5.30 euros
* Roche Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 440 Swiss francs
* SBB Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 2.30 kronor
* Stora Enso Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 10 euros
* Var Energi Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 55 kroner
* Volvo Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 318 kronor
* YIT Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 4.20 euros
>>> Initiation
>>> Initiation
* Anglogold Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $123
* Investec Rated New Buy at Cavendish; PT 670 pence (+)
* LondonMetric Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 190 pence
* Retension Pharmaceuticals Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $55
* Saab Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 690 kronor
* Saab Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 690 kronor
* Vusion Rated New Buy at Citi; PT 250 euros
>>> Call
>>> Call
* Dr Martens Cut at Barclays on Lack of Brand Search Momentum
* Haleon Cut to Hold at Berenberg on Weak Growth Outlook
* Mike Wilson Says Buy Stock Dip Regardless of Who Wins Midterms
* Novartis Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank After ‘Mixed’ 3Q
* Novartis Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank After ‘Mixed’ 3Q
* Volvo Downgraded to Neutral at Citi on Lack of Clear Catalysts
* Vusion Initiated Buy at Citi, Placed on Positive Catalyst Watch (+)
Most Asian stocks rose with US equity futures as investors recovered their risk appetite following last week’s slump in tech shares. Oil fell.Benchmark indexes gained in South Korea, Hong Kong and Japan, helping the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rise 0.1%. That followed a Friday session where the Nasdaq 100 Index slumped 3.5% — its worst day since June — and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 7.2%. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both climbed at least 0.4% on Monday, pointing to a higher open when US cash markets resume trading. Chinese stocks advanced following a report that financial regulators will meet with banks and securities firms Monday to discuss measures to support the capital market, signaling authorities’ renewed effort to halt a slump. Brent crude fell 3.3% to $109.73 a barrel after a report said US President Donald Trump wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time before potentially resuming strikes following Tuesday’s midterm elections. Gold climbed 0.9% to around $3,910 an ounce after falling to its lowest close in more than a year on Friday. Bitcoin rose for a third day after sinking last week when Binance Holdings revealed a record hack that rattled the crypto industry. Friday’s US stock selloff indicated that investors are showing less tolerance for tech companies whose core businesses are slowing while AI spending surges. Results from Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. last week fueled concerns that AI is eroding the businesses financing those investments. Traders are bracing for more volatility, with the US midterm elections this week and Nvidia Corp. earnings later in November. Still, some in the market say the decline may prove to be a buying opportunity. There are a few “clearing events” ahead that could temporarily push stocks lower and create an opportunity for investors to add exposure, said Mike Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York. China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index rose 1.3%, rebounding from a 2.9% drop last week. The tech-heavy Star 50 Index gained 3%. All three major Chinese financial regulators — the People’s Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission — will hold meetings with major banks to study optimizing lending programs to support stock buybacks, Chinese media outlet Cailian reported on Sunday. Kioxia Holdings Corp.’s shares tumbled as much as 17% in Tokyo after the Japanese memory maker’s cautious outlook added to concern that the explosive growth driven by artificial intelligence may be leveling off.b Recent artificial intelligence related market stumbles have somewhat burst the bubble of infallibility around the sector, Howard Marks, co-chair of Oaktree Capital Management LP, tells Bloomberg TV. The dollar was mixed against its Group-of-10 peers and Treasuries were little changed as traders turned their attention to the US midterm elections. Last week’s stock slump delivered a long-awaited jolt of volatility after disappointing earnings from technology giants intensified concerns about the durability of the AI-driven rally. The Cboe Volatility Index touched its highest intraday level since April, while demand for puts protecting against further losses surged and correlations among stocks climbed, signs of mounting stress. Still, those measures remain well below levels reached in March after the US and Israel attacked Iran. 24
Nikkei -0.33% Hang Seng +0.54% CSI +0.70% Kospi +2.83% Shanghai +0.94% Shenzen +1.91%
Eur$ +1.1182 CNH 6.6449 CNY 6.6487 JPY 157.79 GBP 1.3398 CHF 0.8234 RUB 80.50 TRY 49.9697 WTI$ 100.62 -3.39% Gold 3,906 +0.83% BTC 78,177 +0.53% ETH 2,286 +1.10%
S&P +0.45% Nasdaq +0.84% EuroStoxx +0.29% FTSE -0.17% Dax +0.10% SMI -0.38%
Macro :
- Gulf States Fear Fiercer Iran Retaliation If US Strikes
- JPMorgan Bolsters Gulf Presence With New Dubai Wealth Outpost
- Capital Group to Open Middle East Office in November
- Mike Wilson Says Buy Stock Dip Regardless of Who Wins Midterms
- Czech Billionaire Strnad Sees Long-Term Opportunities in Italy
- Czech Billionaire Strnad Sees Long-Term Opportunities in Italy
- OPEC+ agrees in principle to keep oil output targets steady in December, sources say - Reuters
- Tudor’s Xantium Plans to Split Off With $9b in Assets: FT
- Brazil Shakeup Sounds Warning on Crowded Emerging-Market Trades
Keep an eye on :
Keep an eye on :
- ACAD SS : Academedia 1Q Net Sales Meet Estimates
- AMBA US : Ambarella Pares Drop, Betaville Says in Exclusive Talks With NXP
- ANT US : Anthropic Seeks Up to $3.5 Billion in Japan for Its Mega US IPO
- ARBN SW : Arbonia Cuts FY Rev. View on Weak Demand, High Costs in Germany
- AUTN SW : Autoneum to Buy Trèves Group for About €40m Upfront
- BAKKA NO : Bakkafrost Sees 2027 Harvest About 125,000 Metric Tons
- BAVA DC : Bavarian Nordic Gets Multi-Year Vaccine Deal From UK Government
- BX US : Blackstone Leads $3.1 Billion Deal to Acquire LNG Canada Stake
- BORR US : Borr Drilling Recovers Fourth Body in Prospector 5 Incident
- EL FP : Czech Billionaire Strnad Sees Long-Term Opportunities in Italy
- ENX FP : Euronext Joins Industry Push to Integrate Nordic Capital Markets, Euronext CEO Stephane Boujnah Gets Replaced by NN CEO Knibbe
- FRVIA FP : Forvia 3Q Sales Beat Estimates
- FRE GY : Fresenius Signs Exclusive Biosimilars Pact With WuXi Biologics
- GLEN LN : Glencore Seeks New CEO Pay Deal to Shield Shares in Takeover: FT
- GOOGL US : Alphabet Is in Talks to Join Trump’s Golden Dome Defense Program
- KVUE US : Okta to replace Kenvue in S&P 500 at open on 11/4
- KVUE US : Okta to replace Kenvue in S&P 500 at open on 11/4
- LI US : Li Auto Oct. Vehicle Deliveries 29,025 Units Vs. 31,767 Y/y
- LLOY LN : Lloyds launches redundancy round as rivals make sweeping job cuts
- LHA GY : ITA Airways CEO Sees Breakeven This Year and Next: Corriere
- MDW FP : Reese Witherspoon’s Hello Sunshine Cuts 50% of Employees After Actress Buys Back Company - Variety
- MED SW : Medartis To Overachieve FY Organic Sales Growth Guidance
- MDT US : Medtronic's Transcatheter Valve Linked to Life-Threatening Event
- MOL HB : Mol Gets US License to Continue Talks for NIS Majority Stake
- NIO US : NIO Inc. Oct. Deliveries 34,246 Vs. 37,408 M/M
- NN NA : NN Group to Appoint Tjeerd Bosklopper as CEO, Replacing Knibbe
- OKTA US : Okta to replace Kenvue in S&P 500 at open on 11/4
- OPEN AI IPO : OpenAI slashes funding target by $10bn as tech anxieties mount
- OPEN AI IPO : OpenAI slashes funding target by $10bn as tech anxieties mount
- PERI US : Affle 3i to Buy Perion, Affle To Buy Perion for $11.70/Shr Cash
- PPGN SW : Samsung Peptide Holds 97.98% of Shares After Acceptance Period
- RKET GY : Rocket Internet Gets Mandatory Offer Exemption From Regulator
- RYA ID : Ryanair 2Q Profit After Tax Beats Estimates
- CRM US : Salesforce Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire Rune Technologies
- 4XO GY : Steyr Motors Board Backs Red Cat Offer at €39/Shr
- SVIK SS : Studsvik Names New CEO as Thedeen Quits With Immediate Effect
- TNIE GY : -16% Pre-Open
- UBSG SW : UBS Asia Wealth Chair Says Hiring Selectively Amid Growth
- WAWI NO : Wallenius Wilhelmsen Signs $700m Pact With Asian Automaker
- WBD IM : Webuild’s Trevi Stake Exceeds 30%, Turning Offer Mandatory
- XPEV US : Xpeng Oct. Vehicle Deliveries 50,237 Units Vs. 42,013 Y/y
>>> Up
* Aixtron Gains; Alstom, Euronext Fall: Stoxx 600 Premarket
* Amazon Raised to Buy at Phillip Secs; PT $330
* Anora Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 5.10 euros
* Boohoo Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 33 pence
* CaixaBank Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 14 euros
* Eli Lilly PT Raised to $1,600 from $1,400 at Freedom Capital
* Eli Lilly PT Raised to $1,600 from $1,400 at Freedom Capital
* Hoegh Autoliners Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 205 kroner
* Italgas Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 10.50 euros
* KH Group Oyj Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 90 euro cents
* Panostaja Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 33 euro cents
* Rivian Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $17
* Silex Microsystems Raised to Hold at Nordea
* Smartcraft Group Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 20 kronor
* Wallenius Wilhelmsen Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 195 kroner
>>> Down
* Aker BP Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 400 kroner
>>> Down
* Aker BP Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 400 kroner
* Avolta Cut to Sector Perform at RBC
* BCP Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 1.21 euros
* Beiersdorf Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 88 euros
* Cembra Money Bank Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 78 Swiss francs
* Dr Martens Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 60 pence
* Engcon Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Equinor Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 440 kroner
* Erste Bank Polska Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 836 zloty
* Future Plc Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 385 pence
* Haleon Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 365 pence
* Mondi Cut to Hold at Investec; PT 800 pence
* Polytec Holding Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 5.30 euros
* Roche Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 440 Swiss francs
* SBB Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 2.30 kronor
* Stora Enso Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 10 euros
* Var Energi Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 55 kroner
* Volvo Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 318 kronor
* YIT Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 4.20 euros
>>> Initiation
>>> Initiation
* Anglogold Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $123
* LondonMetric Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 190 pence
* Retension Pharmaceuticals Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $55
* Saab Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 690 kronor
* Saab Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 690 kronor
* Vusion Rated New Buy at Citi; PT 250 euros
>>> Call
>>> Call
* Dr Martens Cut at Barclays on Lack of Brand Search Momentum
* Haleon Cut to Hold at Berenberg on Weak Growth Outlook
* Mike Wilson Says Buy Stock Dip Regardless of Who Wins Midterms
* Novartis Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank After ‘Mixed’ 3Q
* Novartis Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank After ‘Mixed’ 3Q
* Volvo Downgraded to Neutral at Citi on Lack of Clear Catalysts