This week, the reality set in that the current Middle East conflict won’t be resolved easily. The daily bombing of targets in Iran were met with drones and missiles lobbed at neighboring countries, and the Houthis entered the fray with new strikes against tankers in the Red Sea. The attacks and stepped up rhetoric sent energy prices higher, with Brent crude surging back above $100/bbl. Treasury yields followed suit: The 2-year yield hit an 18-month high above 4.30% and the 10-year popped above 4.70% for the first time since early 2025. Some better than expected PMI and consumer confidence data in Europe, and an outlier-low in US weekly jobless claims did little to change the trajectory of markets this week, as the focus remained firmly on the war and its fallout.Markets also had to contend with a new tariff framework from the Trump Administration as it seeks to replicate the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court in February. Possibly foreshadowing next week’s FOMC meeting, the ECB kept rates on hold in a unanimous decision, electing to wait for additional data before any further policy tightening at the September meeting. For the week, the S&P lost 0.6%, the DJIA was off 0.4%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1%.
Geopolitical concerns largely overshadowed corporate news, but a number a key earnings reports and presentations were on offer. Tesla shares sold off hard on its mixed Q2 results, and announced “massive” capex spending plans as it works to launch its robots and semi trucks. Meanwhile GM pleased investors with a strong quarter and raised guidance, saying they will be able to raise prices modestly in North America this year. Several defense contractors – Lockheed, RTX, and Northrop – also reported big numbers this week, benefitting from the current US war footing and need to replenish equipment and munitions. Tech names remained out of favor, as showcased by Alphabet’s strong Q2 results getting sandbagged by worries that it is spending too aggressively on the AI chase as it boosted Capex guidance by 8% to around $200B at the midpoint for this fiscal year. In a similar vein, reports said OpenAI will boost its cloud spending plans through the end of the decade by 25% to $750B from $600B. A major new AI hardware launch by AMD backed with many new partnership announcements also failed to reinvigorate the tech trade this week.
MON 07-20
(CA) US White House: Will be imposing additional 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods over alleged trade discrimination, beginning in 30 days
(US) White House considered implementing an executive order saying U.S. companies could only host Chinese models if they could guarantee security and take liability if it were breached; The source described leading AI labs or their allies approaching the administration every 3-5 months with an idea to ban open-source models - Axios
ORCL *Said to face $7B collateral bill for its Wisconsin data center from the state's Public Service Commission - FT (update)
RYA.IE Reports Q1 Net €538M v €624Me, Rev €4.38B v €4.47Be; Says a few airlines are on the edge and are going to have a very difficult winter; would not be surprised if some fail
TUES 07-21
(CN) Follow up: China said to consider tighter export controls on AI models and chips - FT
(DE) GERMANY JULY ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -77.6 V -77.7E
(RU) Russia Dep PM Novak: Fuel market partly stabilised but still difficult in some regions
(SA) Reportedly two tankers carrying Saudi oil have made U-turns in the Red Sea, following recent Houthi threats to shipping - press
(US) US and China said to hold AI talks in Sept - press
(US) REPORTEDLY PRES TRUMP IS POISED TO UNLEASH FRESH TARIFFS ON DOZENS OF COUNTRIES AS SOON AS THIS WEEK - FT [**TTN Reminder: On July 24, 2026, at 12:01 a.m. EDT, the Section 122 10% ad valorem import surcharge expires automatically by statutory operation, but the overall high-tariff environment is designed to continue with different tools]
(US) Treasury Sec Bessent: Can sanction any open source AI models if they do IP theft; Finding watermarks of U.S LLMs on many Chinese models
(US) US to redirect ~$200B research funds to AI, away from colleges - WSJ
(US) Pres. Trump: Effective August 1st, 2026, all Generic Drugs being brought into the United States will 'continue' to have a TARIFF of ZERO PERCENT for a two year period of time, after which the TARIFF will be raised to 100% for a one year period of time, and 200% thereafter. - post on Truth Social
CB Reports Q2 Core $7.26 v $6.60e, Net Premiums Written $14.7B v $15.0Be
DHI Reports Q3 $3.20 v $2.99e, Rev $9.20B v $9.16Be; Cuts FY outlook
GM Reports Q2 $3.57 v $3.13e, Rev $48.0B v $46.6Be; Raises guidance; Notes 2027 results expected to be better than 2026
HAL Reports Q2 $0.55 adj v $0.54e, Rev $5.71B v $5.48Be; Sees incremental growth in North American activity throughout the year as drilling and fracking pick up in the US
MMM Reports Q2 $2.40 adj v $2.27e, Adj Rev $6.50B v $6.40Be; Raises outlook citing continued momentum
MMM Continuing to track ahead of Investor Day targets - earnings slides
NOC Reports Q2 $7.68 adj v $6.84e, Rev $10.9B v $10.8Be; Raises outlook
NOVN.CH Reports Q2 Core EPS $2.41 v $2.20e, Rev $14.4B v $13.9Be
OPENAI.IPO Implementing stricter controls on infrastructure and strengthening model alignment safeguards after disclosing Hugging Face cyber breach was caused by an OpenAI model - company statement
SCHW Reports Q2 $1.62 adj v $1.53e, Rev $7.07B v $6.89Be
SMCI Reports prelim Q4 Rev 'near low end of $11.0-12.5B' v $11.9Be (prior: $11.0-12.5B); Gross margin 15-17% v 8.2-8.4% guided; Record backlog
UHR.CH Reports H1 (CHF) Net 16M v 84.3Me, EBIT 52.0M v 68M y/y, Rev 3.12B v 3.05Be
WAL Reports Q2 $2.36 [GAAP] v $2.33e, Net Rev $996M v $974Me - filing (update)
WEDS 07-22
(CN) Two Chinese supertankers laden with Saudi crude oil head towards Bab El-Mandeb Strait for exit from the Red Sea - [timing uncertain]; cites data - financial press
(CN) US FCC votes to bar sales of devices in the US that contain components from Chinese companies posing national security risks
(IR) IRAN INTERIOR MIN: CURRENTLY NO NEGOTIATIONS WITH U.S; EXCHANGE OF MESSAGES IS POSSIBLE - MEHR NEWS
(JP) BOJ SAID TO BE CLOSE TO STAGE OF ANCHORING INFLATION AND NOT SPURRING IT; OPEN TO RAISING RATES FASTER THAN EVERY 6 MONTHS - PRESS
(KR) SOUTH KOREA Q2 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 3.7% V 3.5%E
(QA) QatarEnergy prepares to extend LNG force majeure into Oct [**TTN Note: October extension would exceed the market’s recent expectation that disruptions could fade in July or production resume around September]
(RU) Russia reportedly no longer willing to return some occupied territories to Ukraine as part of any deal to end the war, blaming failed agreements with US; Plans to retain them as buffer zones - press (update)
(SA) UKMTO reports incident in the Red Sea, tanker struck by an unknown projectile; Crew is fighting a fire onboard; No casualties or environmental damage reported
(UK) JUN CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.7%E
(US) TREASURY $13B 20-YEAR BOND AUCTION DRAWS 5.163% V 4.927% PRIOR, BID-TO-COVER 2.64 V 2.75 PRIOR
(US) PRES. TRUMP: FROM THIS POINT FORWARD, ANY TIME THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN SHOOTS AT A SHIP IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, WHETHER IT BE BY MISSILE, ROCKET, DRONE, OR ANY OTHER DEVICE OR WEAPON, THE UNITED STATES WILL BOMB AND DESTROY ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT
ALO.FR Reports Q1 Rev €4.73B v €4.67Be; Affirms outlook
AMD *SIGNS MAJOR CHIPS AND INVESTMENT AGREEMENT WITH ANTHROPIC; TO INVEST $5B INTO ANTHROPIC, WHILE ANTHROPIC TO USE 2GW OF AMD CHIPS – WSJ
BA Reportedly Trump Admin's Boeing deal with China is under strain citing China's demands for parts and services guarantees to avoid potential US export restrictions – Politico
BNO Brent oil futures hit $95/bbl (1st time in ~6 weeks)
DSV.DK Reports Q2 (DKK) Adj Net 3.47B v 3.06B y/y, Rev 76.7B v 62.0B y/y
EQNR 05:30T Earnings Call: European gas storage is only 53%, more than 15 percentage points below normal, and Equinor expects it to remain below 80% before winter.
GEV Reports Q2 GAAP $2.47 (may not compare) v $3.17e, Rev $11.1B v $10.8Be; FCF $5.1B v $194M y/y
GOOGL Reports Q2 GAAP $9.11* v $2.87e, Rev (ex-TAC) $103.6B v $101.2Be; Gemini app has 950M MAUs; Has not sold any shares under ATM program
GOOGL Raises FY26 Capex 8% at the midpoint to $195-205B v $196Be (prior: $180-190B) - earnings call comments
IBM Reports Q2 $2.93 adj v $2.93e, Rev $17.2B v $17.2B prelim; Trims outlook; Still on track to deliver quantum computer by 2029
IBM 17:00 ET Q2 earnings call: June reflected NOT broad IT-budget contraction; About one-third to 40% of the low-teens large deals that slipped in late June had already closed during the first three weeks of Q3; management normally expects two-thirds to three-fourths to close within six months, supporting its view that demand was deferred rather than destroyed, though exact monthly timing remains difficult to predict.
KNX Reports Q2 $0.63 v $0.49e, Rev $2.10B v $2.01Be
KNX 17:30 ET Q2 earnings call: Truckload conditions tightened rapidly in recent months: spot rates are running well ahead of normal seasonality and tender rejections have reached their highest levels since 2021
NOW Reports Q2 $0.90 v $0.86e, GAAP Rev $3.99B v $3.92Be
OPENAI.IPO *RAISES PROJECTED CLOUD SPENDING 25% TO $750B FROM $600B THROUGH 2030 – WSJ
TEL Reports Q3 $2.94 adj v $2.85e, Rev $5.16B v $5.00Be
TIETO.FI 03:00 ET Q2 earnings call: Customers continue postponing large transformation programs while assessing AI’s impact, economics and hardware costs; spending is shifting toward targeted AI use cases, data foundations and smaller agile teams. Tieto entered 2026 with an unusually high exposure to time-and-material consulting, amplifying the downturn versus some peers.
THRS 07-23
(EU) ECB LEAVES KEY RATES UNCHANGED; AS EXPECTED
(EU) ECB Chief Lagarde: Recent data points to some improvement in economic outlook; indicators suggest it will remain modest - Prepared Remarks
(EU) ECB Chief Lagarde: Decision to keep policy steady was unanimous; some members asked themselves if a hike was needed, but there was no push for a hike today - Q&A
(EU) ECB Officials are reportedly ready to raise rates in Sept - press
(EU) EURO ZONE JULY ADVANCE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -15.9 V -17.0E
(IR) US Pres Trump: Seriously considers restarting major combat ops in Iran; Doesn't have a deadline, but is close to a decision - Axios interview
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 187K V 211KE (lowest since Jan 2024); CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.796M V 1.809ME
(US) USTR Greer: Announces 10-12% new Section 301 tariffs related to forced labor, replacing section 122 tariffs set to expire tomorrow; Will impose 12.5% tariffs on nations that don't ban forced labor; Oil, gas, fertilizer, and certain food stuffs will be exempted
(US) US Treasury FX Policy Report: China is not labeled a currency manipulator, but it stands out among trading partners for lack of transparency on exchange rate practices and policies
(US) WEEKLY EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: +32 BCF VS. +33 BCF TO +35 BCF INDICATED RANGE
(ZA) SOUTH AFRICA CENTRAL BANK (SARB) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 7.00%; NOT EXPECTED
AAL Reports Q2 $0.15 v $0.03e, Rev $16.7B v $16.7Be; Guides Q3 weak and cuts FY guidance citing recent increase in cost of fuel
ACI Reports Q1 $0.42 v $0.55e, Rev $24.9B v $24.8Be; Cuts outlook noting core grocery faced increasing pressure from softer industry unit trends and a more cautious consumer; Consolidates from 11 divisions to four regions; Centralizes center store merchandising
AMD TTN Summary AMD Keynote: Helios in "Full production;" We're still in the very early innings for what's possible with AI tech; Demand for AI processing curb continues to steepen - Keynote
Brent oil retests the $100/barrel level
BT.A.UK Reports Q1 Adj EBITDA £2.01B v £2.03B y/y, Adj Rev £4.32B v £4.34B y/y
BX Exec: Pace of withdrawals slowing at flagship private credit fund - FT
CLF Reports Q2 -$0.20 v -$0.20e, Rev $5.23B v $5.15Be
DOW Reports Q2 $1.44 v $1.25e, Rev $12.1B v $11.6Be
DOW Guides Q3 EBITDA $1.75B v $1.85Be; Affirms FY26 Capex $2.5B (prior: ~$2.5B); China consumer demand remains soft and uneven - earnings slides
HBAN Reports Q2 $0.39 adj v $0.39e, Rev $2.86B v $2.85Be
INTC Reports Q2 $0.38 adj v $0.21e, Rev $16.1B v $14.4Be; Guides Q3 strong; Increasing Capex for 2026-2027
LLY Confirms Phase 3 retatrutide data in obesity and type 2 diabetes and severe obesity with cardiovascular disease; Plans BLA submission in Q1 2027 [**TTN Note: Novo’s CagriSema delivered 15.7% under an adherence estimand in T2D, versus 20.8% here, widening Lilly’s clinical moat where payer access is likely to concentrate]
MXL Reports Q2 $0.35 v $0.33e, Rev $168.9M v $165Me
NEM Reports Q2 $2.10 v $2.05e, Rev $6.12B v $6.35Be
NOKIA.FI Reports Q2 €0.07 v €0.06e, Rev €4.82B v €4.92Be; Remains on track with its new San Jose Fab to begin ramping production later in Q4 2026
OPEC+ reportedly likely to raise output quotas for Sept to 188K barrels per day at Aug meeting – press
REP.ES 05:30 ET Q2 earnings call: 45–50% of Russian refining capacity is reportedly offline, removing roughly 0.9–1.0 mbbl/d of middle-distillate exports; July’s collapse of Strait of Hormuz peace negotiations has renewed “extreme volatility” after the crisis removed an estimated 1.3B barrels of oil supply and shut nearly 3M bbl/day of refining capacity; management sees actual physical supply disruption rather than merely geopolitical risk.
ROG.CH Reports H1 (CHF) Core EPS 10.85 v 11.08 y/y, Rev 30.4B v 30.9B y/y
RTX Reports Q2 $1.89 adj v $1.66e, Rev $24.7B v $22.8Be; Raises guidance; To sell Raytheon's Blue Canyon Technologies business for $620M; Demand remains robust
TMUS Reports Q2 $3.13 adj v $2.52e, Rev $22.8B v $22.8Be
TMUS Exec: Management will not increase device subsidies as smartphone prices rise, meaning “customers will have to pay more” heading into the holiday season - earnings call
FRI 07-24
(US) President Trump: Will launch Section 301 trade probe and tariffs against EU practice of 'robbing' American companies, citing latest $1B fine against Google - Truth Social post
(IR) Reportedly China has encouraged Pakistan and Iran to explore path to reopen talks with US - press
(IR) US and UK reportedly to convene conference on the Strait of Hormuz in London next week – Axios
(EU) ECB’s Lane (Ireland, Chief Economist): We will guide inflation back to its target in the next year or so; At the moment, our job is more reactive
(US) JUN NEW HOME SALES: 628K V 607KE
(US) JULY PRELIMINARY S&P MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.8 V 54.4E (11th month of expansion)
(DE) GERMANY JULY PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.2 V 50.5E (6th month of expansion)
(JP) JAPAN'S PM TAKAICHI SAID TO CONSIDER CABINET RESHUFFLE - LOCAL PRESS [**TTN Note: July 25 is the effective end of the extended Diet session, making it a likely near-term marker for any reshuffle decision or announcement]
(UK) JULY PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.8 V 52.0E (9th month of expansion)
QCOM Said to inform customers that prices will go up by doubt-digit %; Qualcomm can no longer adsorb increasing costs - press citing a letter
LW Reports Q4 $0.87 v $0.62e, Rev $1.77B v $1.70Be
VOW3.DE Reports Q2 Op €3.47B v €4.07Be, Rev €82.4B v €81.7Be; Cuts Rev outlook; Says environment for the automotive industry remains extremely challenging and currently planned initiatives are not sufficient
VZ Reports Q2 $1.30 adj v $1.27e, Rev $34.3B v $35.3Be