Closing Market Summary: Another Day, Another RecordStocks ripped to new records for the second day in a row on Friday, extending their fantastic start to 2018.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 0.9% to 25803.19, the S&P 500 jumped 0.7% to 2786.24, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.7% to 7261.06. The small-cap Russell 2000 kept pace for the first half of the session, but trimmed its gain in the afternoon, closing higher by just 0.3%. All four stock indices finished at new record highs.
The equity market was slightly higher at the opening bell and climbed pretty steadily throughout the day, finishing near its session high. The Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq added between 1.6% and 2.0% for the week, increasing their 2018 gains to 4.2%-5.2%.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM 112.67, +1.83), Wells Fargo (WFC 62.55, -0.46), PNC (PNC 151.84, +0.35), and BlackRock (BLK 555.53, +17.61) kicked off the fourth quarter earnings season on a mostly positive note as all four reported better-than-expected earnings. However, their revenue results were mixed; JPMorgan and Wells Fargo missed estimates, while PNC and BlackRock beat expectations. The financial sector stayed in line with the broader market for most of the day and then rallied in the final minutes to settle higher by 0.9%.
The consumer discretionary sector was the top-performing group on Friday with Lowe's (LOW 100.86, +5.12) setting the pace. The home improvement retailer jumped 5.4% following reports that investor D.E. Shaw has build an active stake in the company. Nordstrom (JWN 51.82, +1.73) also outperformed, adding 3.5%, following a CNBC report that the Nordstrom family is considering resuming efforts to take the company private.
Meanwhile, the industrial sector (+0.9%) had another positive outing as Boeing (BA 336.21, +8.09) hit another record high, and the energy sector (+1.0%) rallied amid another positive day in the crude oil market; West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped 0.6% to $64.21 per barrel. Boeing shares finished higher by 2.5%.
On the downside, the consumer staples (unch), utilities (-0.6%), and real estate (-0.7%) sectors struggled, extending losses for the year. The top-weighted technology sector (+0.6%) managed to settle roughly in line with the broader market, but social media giant Facebook (FB 179.37, -8.40) tumbled 4.5% amid concerns that changes to its news feed will be less engaging for users, prompting them to spend less time on the site.
In the bond market, U.S. Treasuries were under pressure, pushing yields higher; the benchmark 10-yr yield climbed two basis points to 2.55% while the 2-yr yield jumped four basis points to 2.00%. The 10-yr yield shot to 2.59% immediately following the release of the core Consumer Price Index for December, which showed a larger-than-expected increase of 0.3% (consensus +0.2%), but began backtracking soon thereafter.
Elsewhere, the Euro Stoxx 50 (+0.4%) broke a two-session losing streak after German Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU agreed to a blueprint for a grand coalition with its former coalition partner SPD. To be clear, an agreement has not been finalized, but the situation finally looks promising after months of uncertainty.
The euro climbed to a three-year high against the U.S. dollar following the news, jumping 1.3% to 1.2184.
In Asia, stocks ended Friday mostly higher with Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.9%) and China's Shanghai Composite (+0.1%) extending their winning streaks to 14 and 11 sessions, respectively. Economic data from China showed the largest trade surplus in two years ($54.69 billion actual vs $37.00 billion consensus).
Reviewing Friday's economic data, which included the Consumer Price Index for December, Retail Sales for December, and Business Inventories for November:
- Total CPI increased 0.1% (consensus +0.2%) in December while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% (consensus +0.2%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI is up 2.1% (from 2.2% in November) and core CPI is up 1.8% (from 1.7% in November).
- The key takeaway from the report is that it won't change the Fed's prevailing expectation that three rate hikes are in order this year. That could be serving as a disruptive thought for traders who were likely inclined after yesterday's weaker than expected PPI report to think the Fed might think three rate hikes could be too many.
- December retail sales increased 0.4% (consensus +0.4%). The prior month's increase was revised to 0.9% from 0.8%. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.4% in December while the consensus expected an increase of 0.4%. The prior month's increase was revised to 1.3% from 1.0%.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it should underpin the belief that favorable economic drivers continue to act as an expedient for increased consumer spending activity that will benefit Q4 GDP growth.
- Business Inventories increased 0.4% in November (consensus +0.3%). The October reading was revised to 0.0% from -0.1%.
- The key takeaway from the report is that sales growth is outpacing inventory growth, which is a step toward regaining some pricing power.
The stock market will be closed on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. On Tuesday, Citigroup (C 76.84, +1.28) and UnitedHealth (UNH 228.64, +3.25) will report fourth quarter results before the opening bell, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index for January (consensus 19.0) will be released at 8:30 AM ET.
- Nasdaq Composite: +5.2% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +4.4% YTD
- S&P 500: +4.2% YTD
- Russell 2000: +3.7% YTD
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- PFMT +39.2%, DYSL +31.3%, SAEX +21.9%, SGRP +15.3%, TOUR +10%, ATRO +5%, ZAIS +4.7%, TVPT +3.8%, FNSR +3.5%, FRAN +2.5%, AG +2%, FCAU +1.6%, AEG +1.5%, ZG +1.1%, BLK +0.9%, NE +0.7%, SBGI +0.6%, DISCA +0.5%, JPM +0.4%
- ARDM -46.5%, TMHC -2.7%, AMD -2.6%, CSIQ -2.6%, SKLN -2.5%, KODK -1.2%, INFY -1%, PBR -0.8%, SABR -0.5%, SNE -0.5%
The Flow Show: SPY me to the Boom
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The Flow Show
The Flow Show: SPY me to the Boom
• New year kicks off max bullish with blockbuster inflows into equities, corporate & EM bonds
• Triggering B&B indicator "sell signal" requires drop in FMS cash and big HY & EM inflows next 3 weeks
• What level of the SPX causes the Fed to start hiking 50bps...it's not 2767Talking Points
Maximum bullish: new year kicks off with blockbuster $24.4bn inflows into equities, big $13.1bn inflows into corporate & EM bonds…the bull capitulation begins.
Barbell boom: 2nd largest week ever of inflows into EM debt, big inflows to IG & HY bonds, 2nd largest inflows into tech...investors double down on bull market leadership; largest 6-week inflows to energy funds...investors chasing laggards too (Chart 1).
Unambiguously long: BofAML Bull & Bear indicator jumps to 7.1 from 6.2, active equity funds finally seeing inflows, BofAML private client debt (22.5%) & cash (10.2%) allocations making new lows…investors are unambiguously long and will likely stay so until rates go up and/ or EPS goes down.
Tick-tock: triggering B&B indicator "sell signal" requires Jan'2018 FMS cash levels <4.3% (released Tuesday) + $15bn inflows into HY + EM equity + EM debt next 3 weeks; peak Positioning on its way but we expect asset prices to overshoot first.
The Great Tapering: BoJ & ECB clearly saying they will soon join Fed and start tapering the $12tn of asset purchases since Lehman; only government bonds care thus far; US Treasuries (-2.4% total return) on course for worst January since 2009; but tapering without inflation = flatter yield curve not bond shock.
The Great Bond Bear: if ultimate destination for a bear market in Treasuries is 10-year yield <3% then greed in credit & equities will continue to trump fear; wage inflation & >3% yields, and/or trade war (EPS -ve) only impediments to risk asset overshoot early-2018.
SPY me to the Boom: #1 FAQ is "what level of bond yields will cause equity markets to fall?"; better question is "what level in SPX causes Fed to start hiking 50bps"...it's not 2767; BofAML Q1 targets: SPX 2860, CCMP 8000, GT10 2.85%, EUR 1.10.
Chart 1: Inflation vs deflation assets (total returns)
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, Global Financial Data, Bloomberg; note: Inflation assets: Commodities, TIPS, EAFE, US Banks, Value and Cash; Deflation assets = Govt bonds, US IG, S&P 500, US Cons. Disc, Growth and US HY
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