TheChek News Flow

Gaz : la combine illégale d'Engie pour forcer la main de ses clients - http://bit.ly/2LZQLRw

Chez Engie, le temps, c'est de l'argent. Depuis le 7 mai, l'opérateur historique du gaz en France - ex-GDF Suez - avait décidé de ne plus commercialiser aucun contrat de vente de gaz au tarif réglementé, celui que fixe l'État chaque année depuis plus de 70 ans ! "La direction nous l'interdit, on ne propose plus que des offres aux prix du marché", expliquait-on ce jeudi au service commercial de l'opérateur, que nous avons joint. De fait, sur le site Internet d'Engie, impossible de trouver trace du bon vieux contrat lorsqu'on tentait d'y souscrire.

Very reassuring about Europe, I continue to think thjat people don't realize the major impact of the next European Elections. I won't be long Eur$ ahead og the election could see a much Stronger $

Martin Helme of Estonia’s nationalist EKRE party will join EU finance officials in Brussels

The eurozone's finance ministers club has a new member: a far-right populist who wants “blacks to go back” and is determined to block ever closer union.

Martin Helme, of Estonia's nationalist EKRE party, will be the newbie around the table when EU finance ministers meet in Brussels on Friday morning. But it's his party's extreme stances on race, immigration, and the EU project — rather than his views on financial policy — that are the talk of the town.

EKRE has been in government less than a month but Mr Helme and his father (party chairman) are already embroiled in a scandal over salutes critics say are nods to white supremacy (pictured below). Marine Le Pen was also snapped making the gesture this week.

The FT sat down with Mr Helme on his first visit to Brussels. He vowed to keep flashing the “OK” sign that has been condemned by Estonia's president (read the interview here). 

EKRE's surprise entry into power as a junior coalition partner with the liberal party of Prime Minister Juri Ratas has alarmed Brussels. The nationalist outfit was the smallest party in Estonia's parliament four years ago. It more than doubled its vote share in March, riding a wave of anti-migrant sentiment and pledging to protect Estonia's “indigenous” population. 

As for Mr Helme, he told Estonian television in 2013: “If you're black, go back” and that he wants “Estonia to be a white country”. He stood by his comments when quizzed by the FT. “People who refuse to participate in collective national suicide through immigration are labelled racists,” he said. 

Having fiercely opposed Estonia's accession to the EU, Mr Helme says he is not a supporter of an Estonian exit. The party's election manifesto however includes a vague promise to hold a referendum should the European Commission become too powerful. 

Once a byword for political stability, EKRE's surge has shaken assumptions about the Baltic country's commitment to pro-European policies. 

But can the coalition survive? Plenty of Europe's mainstream governments have experimented with bringing the far-right into the fold. Finland's last conservative coalition allied with the Eurosceptic True Finns.They ended up splintering into rival factions and losing ground with voters. 

Austria's chancellor Sebastian Kurz is in bed with the extreme right Freedom party. He's having a harder time keeping a handle on them. 

The Estonian case may well end up showing the risks of struggling mainstream parties breaking the cordon sanitaire with populists. Support for Mr Ratas's liberals has plummeted as much as 40 per cent and they will struggle to win a single MEP in next week's EU elections. 

EKRE meanwhile — which won 17.8 per cent of the vote — are dominating the country's political discourse and airwaves. One Estonian official says the coalition government is now de facto led by the populists and their virulently nationalist agenda rather than by Mr Ratas. 

Mr Helme says he is relishing the prospect of being in government for the next four years. “We are in it for the long run. Estonian domestic politics will be rock and roll for quite some time.”

SHANGHAI/BEIJING, May 17 (Reuters) - China’s central bank will use foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy tools to ensure the yuan does not weaken past the 7-per-dollar key level in the immediate term, three people familiar with the central bank’s thinking said.

“At present, rest assured they will certainly not let it break 7,” a source told Reuters.

“Breaking 7 is beneficial to China because it can reduce some of the effects of tariff increases, but the impact on our renminbi confidence is negative and funds will flow out,” the source said.

The yuan, or renminbi, fell to its weakest level since December on Friday, and to within striking distance of the 7 mark last seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

It has weakened 3 percent in the past month on fading hopes of a deal being struck in the long-running trade war between Beijing and Washington. The latest flare-up in those tensions saw U.S. President Donald Trump increase tariffs on Chinese imports, provoking a similar tariff rise from China.

Although a weaker yuan would support Chinese exporters, the decline would need to be significant to offset the impact of higher U.S. tariffs. Such a fall could in turn fuel capital flight and undermine China’s economic stability, policy insiders said. The source told Reuters that China’s issue of central bank bills in Hong Kong this week was a clear indication of the People’s Bank of China’s intent to soak up offshore yuan and discourage investors from short-selling it.

The PBOC did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

A second source familiar with the PBOC’s thinking said the monetary authority would be fine with the yuan weakening to 7 on fundamental factors but would act to prevent speculative short-selling of the currency.

Tehran leaders believed an attack was coming and prepared possible counterstrikes, one interpretation of information shows, but others in Trump administration disagree on meaning

Intelligence collected by the U.S. government shows Iran’s leaders believe the U.S. planned to attack them, prompting preparation by Tehran for possible counterstrikes, according to one interpretation of the information, people familiar with the matter said.

That view of the intelligence could help explain why Iranian forces and their allies took action that was seen as threatening to U.S. forces in Iraq and elsewhere, prompting a U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gulf region and a drawdown of U.S. diplomats in Iraq.

Meanwhile, administration officials said President Trump told aides including his acting defense chief that he didn’t want a military conflict with Iran, a development indicating tensions in the U.S.-Iran standoff may be easing.

However, there are sharply differing views within the Trump administration over the meaning of intelligence showing Iran and its proxies making military preparations, people familiar with the matter said.

Intelligence officials on Thursday briefed House and Senate leaders, along with the top Democrats and Republicans on the House and Senate intelligence committees, on the Iran situation.

Some within the Trump administration argue that the intelligence indicates Iran is, or was, planning to strike first. On a trip to Baghdad last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, an Iran hawk, said there were indications Iran was planning imminent attacks.

“I am convinced that the information and warnings that we have collected are of greater concern than the normal Iranian harassment activity that we’ve seen in the Persian Gulf and surrounding area,” Rep. Mac Thornberry (R., Texas) said on Thursday. “So I don’t think it’s business as usual. It’s cause for greater concern.”

Iran repeatedly has denied it has plans to attack U.S. forces, calling the information cited by Mr. Pompeo and others “fake intelligence.”

One U.S. official said the view of Iran’s movements and actions as defensive in nature came from new intelligence in recent days. This unspecified intelligence has affected how American officials see Iran’s actions, the official said.

“I don’t think there’s faulty intel here necessarily. I think the intel may be accurate,” Sen. Angus King (I., Maine), a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, told CNN on Thursday after he was briefed on some of the intelligence. “But the unanswered question, again, is: Are they reacting to our assertions of action in the Middle East or are we reacting to them? That’s an unanswered question for me.”

These assessments of the intelligence information were separate from Mr. Trump’s comments to top aides including acting Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan that he doesn’t want tensions between the U.S. and Iran to lead to war.

During a meeting on Wednesday at the White House, Mr. Trump made the comments to Mr. Shanahan as part of a conversation, the officials said, adding that Mr. Trump didn’t issue a specific order.

The New York Times had earlier reported on those comments.

Mr. Trump in recent days has also told advisers that he is reluctant to start any kind of unilateral conflict with Iran, one administration official said.

Instead, he has expressed his interest in a negotiated solution, even if that means speaking to the Iranians directly, this person said, a move that would be counter to the recommendation of some top advisers.

Last week, Mr. Trump suggested Iran’s leaders also consider talks.

“What I’d like to see with Iran, I’d like to see them call me,” he said in remarks at the White House then. Iranian officials have said they don’t see a reason to hold talks with Mr. Trump, who has pulled out of an international nuclear agreement with Iran and reimposed punitive economic sanctions.

On Thursday, Mr. Trump again steered around talk of a confrontation. Asked at the White House if the U.S. would have a war with Iran, he replied: “I hope not.”

The comments came amid other signs that tensions between the U.S. and Iran may be easing after the U.S. over the preceding days undertook a series of military deployments in response to what officials described as intelligence showing increased Iranian threats.

On Thursday, two U.S. military destroyers, the USS McFaul and the USS Gonzalez, transited without incident through the Strait of Hormuz near Iran, officials said.

“It was the quietest transit we have seen in a long time,” a defense official said. U.S. military vessels traveling through the area often encounter challenges from aggressive Iranian fast boats and other vessels, even though there rarely have been armed confrontations.

The Pentagon said the recent U.S. military deployments, consisting of an aircraft carrier, U.S. bombers and other ships and personnel, may have helped quell hostilities.

“The deterrence part of this is going pretty well from our perspective,” the defense official said, citing the “effects we have seen.”

The deployments, sought by military officials, were intended to deter any prospect of Iranian hostility, not as an offensive threat, military officials stressed.

“This is a case where credible intelligence drove measured, appropriate operations,” a senior defense official said.

Mr. Trump on Thursday also met with President Ueli Maurer of Switzerland, holding talks that included a discussion of the crisis in the Middle East, the White House said. In Iran, Switzerland serves as a protecting power on behalf of the U.S. It also serves as a channel for diplomatic communication between the U.S. and Iran, since official diplomatic relations ceased between Washington and Tehran in 1979.

“President Trump expressed his gratitude for Switzerland’s role in facilitating international mediation and diplomatic relations on behalf of the U.S.,” the White House said.

Investors are rightfully focused on the trade war between China and the U.S., but almost everyone is unaware of conditions deep within the options market that could send stock prices sharply lower if something happens to jolt sentiment.

Each month, hedge funds and other institutional investors sell S&P 500 index put and call options that are 3% to 5% below and above the index’s actual market level. The strategy bets that the stock market will trade up or down in a relatively narrow range over the next 30 days. If this proves true, the investors collect a hefty amount of money. If they are wrong, chaos could ensue.

The monthly index options selling strategies are thought to be the equivalent of about $100 billion worth of stock. They work like magic as long as the stock market remains within the range that these investors have defined with their short puts and calls.

When everything goes as planned, the strategy reduces the volatility in the stock market because dealers hedge short options with stocks. The dealers basically buy low and sell high, and this keeps the stock market relatively free of volatility and within a narrow trading range.

The risk to the S&P 500 options selling program is that exogenous events that are hard to anticipate—like a tweet from President Donald Trump or China’s bellicosity—can move the stock market beyond the trading range set in the index options market. This largely explains what happened in December when the stock market sank.

When stocks move more than expected by the index options sellers, it triggers a chain of events that can send stocks sharply lower, which creates a sirocco of fear that feeds upon itself. Now, with the stock market bobbing back and forth on trade-war fears, these risks are elevated.

Should the S&P 500 fall by 3%, say, the options sellers would have to cover their short puts, buying them back for more money than they received for selling them. At the same time, options dealers would sell stock to hedge the puts and calls that were sold by institutional investors.

As markets become more volatile, the algorithms that market makers use to price stocks, options, and futures would move into risk-aversion mode to defend traders and reduce liquidity and worsen prices.

This would ultimately bleed into the S&P 500 futures market, which would struggle to handle the tsunami of selling, triggering a big, bearish wave that would roll through the stock, options, and futures markets until it ultimately disappears, or enough investors decide to buy the stock dip.

These risk factors are not really factored into the cost of hedging, and they are definitely not part of the market narrative, which remains focused on the much-easier-to-understand trade war.

Anyone who wants to hedge the short index options risk could buy December puts on the SPDR S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (ticker: SPY). With the ETF at $284, the December $280 put was trading around $11.80 with an implied volatility of about 16%, which is reasonable given that the put offers protection through year end. The put hedges corporate earnings, economic releases, the trade war, and the chance that the index overwriting trade blows up. If the ETF is at $250 at expiration, for example, the put is worth $30. During the past 52 weeks, it has ranged from $233.76 to $294.95.

Should these issues hammer the stock market, it would be a great time to revisit our favored strategy of selling cash-secured puts to position to buy blue-chip stocks that can be held for several years. The “time arbitrage” strategy takes advantage of short-term instability and spikes in investor fear to position for long-term gains.

For instance, Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), a Chinese company we have long recommended, reported solid earnings on Wednesday. The stock remains a good candidate for this cash-secured put sale.

When bad things happen to good stocks, great things often happen for disciplined investors.

Asian stocks were mixed Friday, as investors digested the latest China state media commentaries on the trade war alongside an extension in the U.S. stock rally overnight.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index hit their lows of the session after commentaries ran in Chinese media saying China may have no interest in continuing trade talks with the U.S. for now. The yuan, already trading at five-month lows, dropped further. Japan’s stock gauges gained more than 1%, however South Korean shares were little changed. Equities slid in Shanghai and in Hong Kong. Elsewhere, crude oil rose above $63 a barrel in New York. Ten-year Treasury yields remain near their lows of the year.

US After Hours AMAT +5%, NVDA +0.9% are higher, while PINS -16%, BIDU -9%, IQ -5% are lower following earnings/guidance

Nikkei +0.96% Hang Seng -1.13% CSI -2.20% Shanghai -2.06% Shenzen -2.74%

Eur$ 1.1173 CNH 6.9403 CNY 6.9074 JPY 109.62 GBP 1.2787 CHF 1.0092 RUB 64.7339 TRY 6.0803 WTI$ 62.95 +0.13%

S&P -0.32% EuroStoxx -0.50% FTSE -0.38% Dax -0.48%SMI -0.24%

Macro :

- Di Maio Says Italy Doesn’t Want Debt to Spiral Toward 140%

- German Stocks Have Sturdy Shelter From Tariff Storm: Macro View

- *ALTMAIER EXPECTS EU-U.S. TALKS ON TARIFF CUTS TO START IN WEEKS

- European Bank Consolidation Could Provide Stability: Buba’s Buch

- Italy’s Salvini Says He Wants to Change EU Banking Rules

Keep an eye on :

- ADP FP : France’s Le Maire Welcomes Court Finding on Reform Plan, ADP

- ADP FP : ADP, FDJ Privatization Approved by French Constitutional Court

- AGN NA : Aegon to Sell Stake in JV With Sony Life in Japan for EU130m

- ALPH SW : Alpiq Sells Czech Power Plants to Sev.en Energy for ~EU280m

- ATCOA SS : Atlas Copco CEO Says M&A Needed to Reach Growth Target: DI

- BA/ LN : BAE Systems Names Tom Arseneault President, COO

- BINCK NA : Saxo Extends Offer Period for BinckBank Until July 31

- CSGN SW : Credit Suisse Starts Wealth Planning Services for Greater China

- DAI GY : Mercedes-Benz USA Chief Poised to Step Down: Automotive News

- DIE BB : D’Ieteren Raises View, Sees Pretax Profit Growth at Least 25%

- DSV DC : Cevian Selling $614 Million Stake in Logistics Firm DSV

- DUE GY : Duerr First Quarter Adjusted Ebit 1.8% Below Estimates

- EZJ LN : EasyJet Sees 2H Rev Per Seat at Constant FX Down, Cites Brexit

- EDP PL : EDP First Quarter Net Income Misses Lowest Estimate

- ELI BB : Elia Says It Could Transform Itself Into a Holding Company

- EXM BB : Exmar to Buy Back NOK104m, $1.8m Floating Rate Notes Due in July

- FSKRS FH : Fiskars Lowers 2019 Ebita Outlook Citing U.S. Tariffs on China

- GSK LN : GSK, Novartis Misled Consumers With Voltaren Claims

- HBMN SW : HBM Healthcare Sees Carrying Value Cathay R&D Rising to $196m

- HEN3 GY : FDA Has No Triclosan Efficacy Evidence in OTC Antiseptics

- HIK LN : Hikma Reiterates FY Guidance, Remains Confident in Group Outlook

- IMMO BB : Immobel, Whitewood, DW Partners Buy Centre Monnaie in Brussels

- INTER NA : Intertrust Holder Lucerne Calls Co. Valuation Deeply Discounted

- JE/ LN : Watch Just Eat After Amazon Confirms Deliveroo Investment (1)

- MTRO LN : Metro Bank Intends to Raise GBP350m in Placing at 500 Pence/Shr

- MOR GY : Morphosys: Primary Endpoint of L-Mind Combo Study Has Been Met

- KN FP : Natixis Appoints Cleris Global Co-Head of Coverage for CIB

- NXI FP : Nexity to Buy Back as Much as EU12m Shares, Oddo BHF Mandated

- NDA SS : Some Nordea Investors Call for Management Changes, DI Reports

- OPHR LN : Ophir Sells Interest in Block 5 in Mexico for $35M Cash

- OSR GY : Osram Share Buyback Cancelled on May 14 May Continue

- RNO FP : Nissan CEO's `Big Burden' Is to Get U.S. Business Back on Track

- CFR SW : Richemont Full Year Operating Profit Misses Estimates

- SGE LN : Sage Sees FY Org. Recurring Rev at Top or Slightly Above 8-9%

- SINCH SS : Sinch 1Q Net Sales Jump 28% to SEK1.10 Billion

- ALSPW FP : Spineway Buys Stake in Integral Medical Solutions

- SRAIL SW : Stadler Beats Siemens to EU3B Berlin Train Order: Tagesspiegel

- SSI FP : Supersonic Imagine Resolves Legal Disputes With Verasonics

- FP FP : Total Eyed Anadarko Assets for a Year Before $8.8 Billion Deal

- VK FP : Vallourec 1Q Ebitda Beats Avg. Est., Keeps Target

- VK FP : Vallourec CFO Says Company Doesn't Need Capital Increase

* Anglo American Upgraded to Buy at Liberum

* Atresmedia Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 6.10 Euros

* DWS Upgraded to Buy at Commerzbank; PT 35 Euros

* Mediaset Upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 2.90 Euros

* Rio Tinto Upgraded to Buy at Liberum

* Schibsted Upgraded to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 260 Kroner

* TF1 Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 12.60 Euros

>>> Down

* Bankia Downgraded to Add at AlphaValue

* Carmila Downgraded to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 18 Euros

* Generali Downgraded to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 17.50 Euros

* Informa Downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 8.11 Pounds

* PostNL Downgraded to Hold at Jefferies; PT 2 Euros

* Ubisoft Downgraded to Hold at Midcap Partners; PT 90 Euros

* Umicore Downgraded to Hold at ABN Amro Bank; PT 30 Euros

* Wendel Downgraded to Hold at SocGen; PT 135 Euros

* Wolters Kluwer Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 57 Euros

>>> Initiation

* BASF Rated New Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 65 Euros

* Buzzi Unicem Rated New Buy at Citi

* Beazley Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 6.51 Pounds

* Hannover Re Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley

* Hurricane Energy Rated New Equal-weight at Barclays; PT 75 Pence

>>> Call