>>> Weekend Papers Summary - Source TradeTheNews.com

* NYT
(Saturday): Labor secretary, R. Alexander Acosta announced his resignation amid continuing questions about his handling of a sex crimes case involving the financier Jeffrey Epstein when Acosta was a federal prosecutor in Florida; Defying American objections and the threat of sanctions, Turkey received the first shipment of a sophisticated Russian surface-to-air missile system, a step certain to test the country’s uneasy place in the NATO alliance; The House approved a defense bill that would limit Donald Trump’s ability to wage war in Iran and Yemen, restrict the use of military funds at the southwestern border, and return transgender troops to the armed forces; China said it would impose sanctions on American companies involved in the recently proposed sale of more than $2B in arms to Taiwan, a move could further strain ties between the two large powers; Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Congress the government could run out of money in early September and asked lawmakers to raise the government’s borrowing limit before their August recess or risk a potentially catastrophic default; The EPA is preparing to weaken rules that for 25 years have given communities a voice in deciding how much pollution may legally be released by nearby power plants and factories
(Sunday): Front page story reports “Dozens of databases of people’s faces are being compiled without their knowledge by companies and researchers, with many of the images then being shared around the world, in what has become a vast ecosystem fueling the spread of facial recognition technology; A power failure plunged a stretch of the West Side of Manhattan into darkness on Saturday night, trapping people in subway cars and elevators and forcing cars to navigate streets without the help of traffic signals; Under a revamped Pentagon strategy to counter growing threats from Russia and China, American commandos are teaming up with partners on Europe’s eastern flank to thwart Russia’s so-called hybrid warfare, which involves a blend of subterfuge, cyberattacks, and information warfare; Trump said he would not impose quotas on imports of uranium, backing away from one of many trade confrontations the administration has threatened as it tries to protect American industry; In an effort to cool down relations with Iran, Britain offered to return a seized Iranian tanker if Tehran provided guarantees that the oil would not go to Syria, saying the original of the oil wasn’t an issue, only its final destination; Sunday Business: Swedes have long been willing to pay high taxes for a generous social safety net, but that willingness is being tested by an influx of refugees, raising questions about whether the “Nordic Model” is the best form of capitalism; “As evidence accumulates that economic growth may be slowing more rapidly than the Fed had expected, investors might want to reconsider whose side to be on in the fight between the Fed and a possible recession”; A small group of traditional mutual funds and exchange-traded funds are investing in companies that contribute to the delivery, testing, and cleaning of potable water—and they stand to grow as governments around the globe attempt to manage expected water shortfalls.
* WSJ (Weekend): Stocks climbed to record highs and oil prices surged this week, while major indexes are up more than 2.4% in July, as investors bet the Federal Reserve will be able to forestall a downturn, even as worries about the broader U.S. economy persist; The New York Stock Exchange is clamping down on errors among its last remaining floor trading firms, a strict disciplinary push that some traders say could drive them out of business; As rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran draw the world’s attention, the Syrian government and its Russian allies have stepped up airstrikes on Idlib and surrounding areas in a monthslong campaign to recapture the territory; Oil tankers carrying crude from the Middle East are increasingly receiving protection from warships as they pass through one of the world’s most critical waterways after Iran threatened retaliation for economic sanctions; Originally scheduled to testify on July 17, former special counsel Robert Mueller will appear on July 24 before House Judiciary and Intelligence panels after reaching an agreement under which he will testify for longer than originally planned; Ever since Trump announced he was dropping the effort to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census, White House officials have sought to fight the characterization that he was conceding on the matter; Economists surveyed by the Journal say Trump’s repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell, haven’t significantly damaged perceptions of the central bank’s independence; + Royal Dutch Shell: Energy giant hopes to transform into a cleaner business and become the world’s largest electricity company with a strategy light on assets that will focus on trading electricity that others generate; Personal-computer shipments rose in the second quarter for the first time since last year, as businesses sought upgrades to technology with new MSFT Windows 10 software and a shortage in processors eased.
* FT (Weekend): Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro’s move to offer his son Eduardo the ambassadorship to the U.S. has sparked concerns about nepotism and the role of influence in Latin America’s largest nation; The health of German chancellor Angela Merkel has become a major concern after she was seen shaking in public on several occasions, and her refusal to answer questions about the matter is only heightening the worry; Singapore’s trade-dependent economy experienced its slowest rate of growth in a decade in the second quarter, raising fears the worsening global out look it having an effect on Asia; Italy plans to lead a challenge on restrictive European Union rules on public spending, according to finance minister Giovanni Tria, after Rome dodged European Commission financial sanctions over its public debt; Lex Column: Fosun’s proposed rescue of Thomas Cook would be a relief to customers, suppliers, and staff, but the chances of a turnaround are slim; The infotech sector accounts for more than one-fifth of the S&P 500 by market value, yet few tech companies appear in the index of top paying dividend stocks; Whether WPP can bring in new clients without big acquisitions will be the test of new chief Mark Read’s leadership; Comment: Burdensome governance requirements and activist investors have prompted many private companies to question whether it’s worth going public—creating a lack of new listings that has changed the equities landscape and prompted DB to exit the sector, says Philip Augar.
* NY POST (Saturday): +/- AMZN: Story says the number of disaffected workers at Amazon is rising, and many employees plan to “raise a ruckus” during the upcoming Prime Day sales event; While the drama in Washington hasn’t let up, it isn’t selling books the way it did last year—politically oriented titles aren’t making the best-seller list like they did last year; (Sunday): +/- GRUB: Mark Gjonaj, the head of the New York City council’s Committee on Small Business, asked New York Attorney General Letitia James to open an antitrust investigation into Grubhub’s acquisition of Seamless

Barron's : A Bargain Stock to Play East African Oil

A Bargain Stock to Play East African Oil

British-based but Africa-focused, Tullow Oil could come up a gusher.

Its shares (ticker: TLW.UK) have the potential to jump 40% or more in the next 12 months, analysts say. Investors, they argue, are giving Tullow little credit for its prospects in East Africa.

“We would argue that there is little value being assigned to East Africa in the stock price,” a Barclays report says. It contends the stock is worth £3.10 ($3.88), 44% over a recent price of £2.15. That valuation is based on its earnings per share growing more than sixfold, to £0.36 in 2021, versus £0.06 last year.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs are even more bullish. They see the stock rallying 57%, to £3.37, within the next 12 months.

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Certainly compared with much larger rivals, Tullow looks cheap. It trades at a price-earnings ratio of eight times its earnings over the next 12 months, versus 17 and 20 for oil behemoths Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM), respectively.

That discount for Tullow reflects, in part, uncertainty over the East African projects as well as the company’s small size. (Tullow produces the equivalent of 95,000 barrels of oil a day; Exxon produces the equivalent of 4 million barrels.)

Last month, Tullow’s chief executive expressed optimism over negotiations with the Kenyan government over developing a significant oil find in the South Lokichar Basin, which the company says contains up to 4 billion barrels of oil. Around 560 million barrels are recoverable, Tullow says.

“I am particularly pleased with the significant progress we have made in Kenya, and the agreement with the government over a number of key commercial principles will greatly assist us in driving the project” to a final investment decision, Tullow CEO Paul McDade said in a statement.

And despite a recent stall in Tullow’s talks with the Ugandan government, investors should be optimistic, analysts say. Barclays sees “the potential for a fresh approach/structure to the deal that can be acceptable to all stakeholders,” yet notes that the timing remains uncertain. If an agreement does move forward, the Ugandan project could produce 230,000 barrels of oil a day at its “plateau” output rate, according to Tullow.

The company is also commencing exploratory drilling off Guyana in South America, with likely results announced within a few weeks, which could be “key catalysts for the stock,” Goldman says.

With a £3 billion ($3.75 billion) market cap, Tullow calls itself “Africa’s leading independent oil company.” It also operates in Asia and South and Central America. Some of those businesses involve oil production; other parts are in preproduction development as well as exploration.

“The appeal of a smaller company is that a notable find has a much larger impact on a company’s fortunes, and in theory you can make a lot more money,” says Adam Johnson, a former oil trader and founder of the Bullseye Brief financial newsletter. Of course, that also works in reverse, he notes.

Indeed, there are risks with Tullow. The talks in Kenya and Uganda could fail, and the exploratory drilling off Guyana might not yield any commercial energy resources.

Debt also weighs on Tullow’s stock price. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 152%, versus 17% and 10% for Chevron and Exxon, respectively.

Still, given that little upside is being priced into the current stock price, Tullow may be worth a bet.

>>> US Close Dow -0.08% S&P +0.12% Nasdaq +0.54% Russell +0.08%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The S&P 500 increased 0.1% on Tuesday, as shares of large-cap technology stocks helped the stock market overcome a slow start. Overall, there appeared to be a wait-and-see mindset for potential market-moving catalysts this week, including Fed Chair Powell's semiannual monetary policy testimony on Capitol Hill tomorrow.

The Nasdaq Composite increased 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 increased 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%), however, lost ground as shares of 3M (MMM 165.70, -3.49, -2.1%) underperformed after the stock was downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts. 

The stock market's lowest levels of the day came at the open, but investors quickly bought the dip, lifting the major indices from session lows. It still looked like the S&P 500 would close lower for the third straight day, though, until a swarm of buyers in the last 30 minutes of action helped stocks close near session highs.  

Solid gains in the FAANG stocks -- Facebook (FB 199.21, +3.45, +1.8%), Apple (AAPL 201.24, +1.22, +0.6%), Amazon (AMZN 1988.30, +35.98, +1.8%), Netflix (NFLX 379.93, +3.77, +1.0%), and Alphabet (GOOG 1124.83, +8.48, +0.8%) -- contributed to the positive disposition. The S&P 500 real estate sector (+0.5%) was Tuesday's best-performing sector. 

On the downside, the materials (-1.0%), consumer staples (-0.6%), and industrials (-0.2%) sectors were the lone sectors that finished lower. PepsiCo's (PEP 131.74, -0.82, -0.6%) better-than-expected earnings results were unable to stir further buying interest in the stock or the consumer staples sector. 

In other corporate news, Acacia Communications (ACIA 64.91, +16.85, +35.1%) agreed to be acquired by Cisco (CSCO 56.34, +0.15, +0.3%) for $2.6 billion, or $70 per share, in cash. The deal represented a 46% premium to ACIA's closing price on Monday.

Separately, USTR Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin spoke to China's Vice Premier Liu He on Tuesday, according to CNBC. Market reaction was muted, as it was expected that there would be a phone call this week to continue trade talks.

U.S. Treasuries finished slightly lower in another tight-ranged session. The 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 1.90%, and the 10-yr yield increased two basis points to 2.05%. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.1% to 97.51. WTI crude increased 0.7% to $57.79/bbl. 

Reviewing Tuesday's economic data, which included NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June and the JOLTS - Job Opening report for May.

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June decreased to 103.3 from 105.0 in May.
  • The May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job openings decreased to 7.323 million from a revised 7.372 million (from 7.449 million) in April.

Looking ahead, investors will receive the FOMC Minutes from the June meeting, the Wholesale Inventories for May, and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index on Wednesday. 

  • Nasdaq Composite +22.7% YTD
  • S&P 500 +18.9% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +15.8% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +14.8% YTD

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 9thof July 2019 (v2 **)

>>> Up
* Babcock Upgraded to Neutral at Citi
* FinecoBank Upgraded to Outperform at MainFirst; PT 12.80 Euros **
* Genel Upgraded to Buy at Canaccord; PT 3.10 Pounds **
* Generali Upgraded to Neutral at Goldman; PT 16 Euros
* ICADE Upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 89 Euros
* Ingenico Group Upgraded to Add at AlphaValue
* LafargeHolcim Upgraded to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 53 Francs
* Orange Belgium Upgraded to Buy at SocGen; PT 22 Euros
* Salmar Upgraded to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 484 Kroner **

>>> Down
* Adecco Downgraded to Sell at Goldman; PT 51 Francs
* Antofagasta Downgraded to Neutral at Macquarie; PT 9.45 Pounds
* BASF Downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 59 Euros
* Central Asia Metals Cut to Neutral at Macquarie; PT 2.10 Pounds
* Chr. Hansen Downgraded to Sell at Berenberg; PT 575 Kroner
* Cyan Downgraded to Reduce at Commerzbank; PT Set to 21.50 Euros **
* Intertek Downgraded to Sell at Goldman; Price Target 54 Pounds
* Just Eat Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
* LVMH Downgraded to Neutral at MainFirst; PT 400 Euros **
* Randstad Downgraded to Sell at Goldman; PT 45 Euros

>>> Initiation
* Alpha Finl Markets Rated New Outperform at Macquarie
* ASML Rated New Buy at SocGen; PT 220 Euros
* Banco BPM Rated New Neutral at MainFirst; PT 2.10 Euros
* BPER Banca Rated New Neutral at MainFirst; PT 4.15 Euros
* UBI Banca Rated New Outperform at MainFirst; PT 3.10 Euros

>>> Call
* Babcock Upgraded at Citi on Valuation, Ending Four Years at Sell **

WSJ : Volkswagen Stalled Bond Investigation, SEC Says

Volkswagen Stalled Bond Investigation, SEC Says
Judge had asked agency to explain why it took so long to sue after guilty plea in diesel case

WASHINGTON— Volkswagen AG VOW 0.10% dragged out a federal investigation into whether it defrauded U.S. bond investors who weren’t told about its efforts to cheat on diesel-emissions tests, according to the government.

The Securities and Exchange Commission, in a Monday federal court filing, explained why it took so long to sue Volkswagen and its former chief executive officer after the auto maker pleaded guilty in 2017 to criminal charges over the diesel-cheating scandal. In May, a federal judge in San Francisco questioned the SEC over the delay and said he was “totally mystified” by the regulator’s move.

A spokesman for Volkswagen said the company cooperated fully with the SEC’s investigation.

The SEC said its probe began in September 2015 and struggled with “long delays by VW in producing documents and other information, uncooperative witnesses who were reluctant or altogether refused to speak to the staff and efforts (with mixed success) to navigate cumbersome procedures for collecting evidence located abroad.”

The agency’s filing provides a rare, detailed timeline of one of its enforcement investigations, which examined Volkswagen’s sale of $13 billion in bonds in the U.S. from April 2014 to May 2015. The SEC claims senior executives knew more than 500,000 vehicles in the U.S. grossly exceeded legal emissions limits during that period. The SEC said Volkswagen’s costs of funding would have been higher if the company had disclosed the burgeoning legal risks to purchasers of its debt.

In its March civil lawsuit, the SEC said former CEO Martin Winterkorn heard about an emissions cheating device from two engineers in November 2007.

The SEC said it first sought a settlement with Volkswagen in mid-2016, but the company excluded it from settlement talks with the Department of Justice and other agencies.

“VW’s counsel informed DOJ and the [SEC] staff that VW viewed the SEC’s securities investigation differently than the other government investigations,” the SEC wrote.

Volkswagen has said in prior court filings that the SEC’s lawsuit was “driven by hindsight bias and is an unfortunate example of ‘piling on.’” The company previously paid $50 million to settle Justice Department civil fraud claims over some of the bonds that are the basis of the SEC’s March lawsuit.

Volkswagen spokesman Mark Clothier said the company’s Justice Department deal released it from civil fraud liability asserted by other parts of the government. “Today’s filing confirms that the SEC is now piling on,” he said.

The SEC said it encountered obstacles abroad too. Germany’s financial regulator, the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, rejected the SEC’s request for help obtaining documents and interviews of key witnesses. The SEC wrote that it then asked the Justice Department for its assistance in arranging interviews but that it also turned the agency down.

Volkswagen was slow to produce documents that identified employees and officers involved in its bond offerings, the SEC said. The company sent the SEC millions of pages of requested documents but didn’t include a spreadsheet that listed the names of employees involved in preparing its bond disclosures, according to the SEC.

U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer ordered the SEC in May to make the filings it produced on Monday. The regulator is seeking civil penalties and disgorgement through its lawsuit.

The material filed Monday includes a 113-page statement from an SEC supervisor in Chicago, Jeffrey Shank, that explains when the SEC discovered each factual claim in its lawsuit.