A selloff in global bonds extended as the deadlock over the Iran war drove oil prices higher, fueling inflation concerns and raising bets that central banks will need to keep tightening policy. Treasuries declined across the curve with the 30-year yield rising to the highest in almost three years on investor fears over accelerating inflation. Japan’s 10-year yields jumped 10 basis points to levels last seen in 1996, while the nation’s 30-year yield surged 20 basis points to the highest since its 1999 debut. Bonds also dropped in Australia and New Zealand. As bond yields surged, stocks extended their slide from record highs. Asian shares fell 0.8%, although South Korea’s Kospi — the world’s best-performing benchmark this year — erased earlier losses to rise 1% as Samsung Electronics Co. rebounded. Equity-index futures indicated more losses for Europe and the US.
The dollar, the haven of choice during the Middle East conflict, rose for a sixth day. Weighing on sentiment, Brent crude rose about 2% to over $111 a barrel, after adding almost 8% last week, with no progress in efforts to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump also said the “clock is ticking” for Iran to strike a deal. Monday’s market tumult followed a selloff in stocks and bonds Friday as fears grow that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will keep oil prices elevated, fuel inflation and convince central banks to keep interest rates higher. A key test for investors this week will be Nvidia Corp.’s earnings, after months of equities brushing aside mounting macro risks on bets that billions of dollars spent on the AI rollout would drive corporate earnings growth. Attention is firmly on the bond market, with a shift in wagers around the Federal Reserve. Traders now see a rate hike as a lock by March, underscoring how the Iran war has flipped the bond-market narrative on its head since late February, when two quarter-point cuts were expected for 2026. The Fed needs to catch up with bond markets or risk losing control of borrowing costs as investors grow increasingly worried about inflation, according to Yardeni Research. If the Fed fails to remove its easing bias, “investors will conclude that the central bank is falling behind the inflation curve and will demand a higher inflation risk premium,” wrote Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist. “We expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged at the June meeting and shift to a tightening policy stance.” The core issue centered around the lack of progress in the Middle East, with the US and Iran not able to make progress on their fragile ceasefire deal.
Washington offered “no tangible concessions,” while seeking “to obtain concessions that it failed to obtain during the war, which will lead to an impasse in the negotiations,” said Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency. Meantime, a drone attack sparked a fire at a United Arab Emirates nuclear plant, highlighting the risks to the fragile ceasefire. Finance ministers of the Group-of-Seven are set to discuss the debt selloff when they meet this week, though how they can ease pressure remains to be seen. The main issue remains the transit of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for the flow of oil and gas from the Middle East. Long-term bond yields in key markets are climbing as rising oil prices fuel global inflation concerns. Elsewhere, grain futures in Chicago jumped on Monday after the White House outlined an additional commitment by China to buy US farm goods, stoking hopes that crop exports beyond soybeans could pick up. Shares in Shanghai held steady after China’s growth slowed across the board in April with investment resuming declines while retail sales and industrial output fell short of forecasts. The pound weakened after Wes Streeting said he would take part in any leadership contest to replace Keir Starmer and called for Britain to rejoin the European Union. The declaration follows Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham who announced he intends to run for parliament, opening a pathway to also challenge Starmer, which caused a rout in gilts last week in fears of possible expansionary fiscal policy. Amid the rising inflation and the continued stalemate in Iran, one key issue for traders this week will be the Nvidia Corp. earnings. The AI bellwether will announce its results after more than 80% of the S&P 500 companies reported earnings that beat estimates, according to Bloomberg Data.
Nikkei -0.60% Hang Seng -1.35% CSI -0.69% Shanghai -0.22% Shenzen -0.17%
Eur$ 1.1623 CNH 6.8159 CNY 6.8139 JPY 158.98 GBP 1.3315 CHF 0.7868 RUB 72.9881 TRY 45.5770 WTI$ 107.76 +2.22% Gold 4,541 +0.03% BTC 76,827 -1.80% ETH 2,117 -3.26%
S&P -0.56% Nasdaq -0.55% EuroStoxx -0.98% FTSE -0.13% Dax -0.90% SMI -0.76%
Macro :
- China’s Economy Slows Sharply as Investment Resumes Declines
- Gundlach Says It’s ‘Just Not Possible’ for the Fed to Cut Rates
- British Takeovers Up 250% as Global Buyers Bypass Political Flux
- Goldman Says Central Banks to Step Up Gold-Buying, Aiding Prices
- NATO to Press Europe’s Arms Makers to Boost Investment: FT
- Volatile Chipmaker Stocks Emerge as Key Driver of S&P 500 Rally
- WHO Ebola Emergency Declaration Seeks to Spur Global Response
- Cuba said to have acquired more than 300 military drones and recently began discussing plans to use them to attack the U.S. base at Guantanamo Bay, U.S. military vessels and possibly Key West, Fla., 90 miles north of Havana - Axios
- Some close advisers to President Trump said to fear the heightened danger that Chinese Pres Xi will invade Taiwan in the next five years - Axios
- One Hedge Fund Holds the Keys to Ukraine's Wartime Industries
Keep an eye on :
- AMGN US : 20 People in Japan Died After Taking Amgen Drug - WSJ
- AMS LN : TA Associates Scraps Takeover Plan for Advanced Medical Solutions Group
- AAPL US : Apple Is Making Hit Products and High Profits From Imperfect Chips -- WSJ
- BIO US : Activist Elliott Builds Big Stake in Life-Science Tools Supplier Bio-Rad - WSJ
- BP/ LN : Oil giant BP aims to invest $5bn in Angola to increase output
- BA US : Boeing Gets China Deal at Trump’s Visit, With Many Questions
- BOIL SS : Boliden’s Kristineberg Mine Caves In, One Worker Rescued: SVT
- BP/ LN : BP to Cut Pipeline Gas Trading Team: Reuters
- IAG LN : IAG Starts Next €500m Tranche of €1.5b Share Buyback Program
- BWO NO : BW Offshore 1Q Ebitda $47.9M, BW Offshore Cuts FY Ebitda Forecast
- CAN LN : Shock threat by billionaire Bollore's Canal+ group rocks French cinema
- CBRS US : Cerebras to Be Added to Eligible Indexes on Monday: S&P DJI
- CVX US : Berkshire Sold $8 Billion of Chevron Shares as Prices Soared
- AM FP : Indonesia Air Force Receives Rafale Fighter Jets, Falcon 8X Jets
- DAL US : Berkshire Amasses $2.6 Billion Stake in Delta Airlines
- IBRX US : ImmunityBio Signs Exclusive US Deal for Tokyo BCG Strain
- INPST NA : Advent to Sell Up to €1.5 Billion of InPost Buyout Loan to Banks
- IPN FP : Ipsen Starts Share Buyback Program for Employee Plans
- KER FP : The Gucciness of Gucci Takes Over New York - WWD
- KESKOB FH : Kesko April Comparable Sales +4.8%
- KLARAB SS : KlaraBo: KlaraBo to merge with Sveafastigheter, which acquires a property portfolio from SBB, cementing the position as Nasdaq
- RAMP US : Publicis to Buy US-Based LiveRamp Platform in $2.2 Billion Deal
- MGN NO : Magnora Adds 30 MW Data Center Project to Portfolio in Italy
- MGN NO : Magnora Targets IPO of Data Center Business in Oslo During 2Q
- MBG GY : Mercedes-Benz CEO Says Carmaker Is Willing to Enter Defense Production -- WSJ
- MSFT US : Ackman Takes Microsoft Stake, Calls Tech ‘Deeply Embedded’
- NANO FP : Nanobiotix S.A.: Nanobiotix Announces Presentation of Part 1 Data From a Randomized Phase 2 Clinical Trial Evaluating JNJ-1900
- NEE US : NextEra Said to Discuss Paying About $76 Per Share for Dominion
- NOKIA FH : Nokia Router, Elevon Aerial Drones Receive FCC Exemptions
- ONON US : On Holding Founders Buy $6.6 Million of Stock After Earnings
- OpenAI : OpenAI Bought Company That Offered A.I. Tools for Cloning Voices
- PRX NA : iFood Faces Brazil Regulator Probe Over Exclusivity Deal: Globo
- PRU LN : Prudential to Buy 75% Stake in Bharti’s Life Insurance Unit
- PUB FP : Publicis to Buy US-Based LiveRamp in $2.2 Billion AI Deal
- RWY IM : Renaissance Starts Takeover Bid for Reway at €10.31/Shr
- REP SM : Santos, Repsol Begin Commercial Oil Flows in Alaska Arctic
- RNO FP : France Wants Stellantis, Renault to Favor Local Car Suppliers
- ROP SW : Genentech Gets FDA Approval for Bladder Cancer Treatments
- RYA ID : Ryanair FY Profit After Tax Beats Estimates; Ryanair Warns of Rising Costs on Higher Fuel Prices, Crew Wages
- SFL IM : Safilo Targets M&A for Next Growth Phase: CEO to Stampa
- SOON SW : Sonova FY Adjusted Ebita Beats Estimates
- SpaceX IPO : SpaceX Picks Nasdaq as Listing Venue for IPO: Reuters
- SpaceX IPO : SpaceX Holders Sign Off on 5-for-1 Stock Split Ahead of IPO
- SpaceX IPO :BlackRock Weighs Multibillion-Dollar Investment in SpaceX IPO - The Information
- STLAM IM : France Wants Stellantis, Renault to Favor Local Car Suppliers
- SVEAF SS : Sveafastigheter Agrees to Take Over KlaraBo in Share Deal
- TSLA US : Tesla reveals two Robotaxi crashes involving teleoperators - TechCrunch
- TKA GY : Thyssenkrupp Presta to Close Indiana Production Site by 2027
- TTE FP : France Says ‘No Taboo’ on Possible TotalEnergies Exceptional Tax
- UHR SW : Swatch Shops Shut as Audemars Piguet Collaboration Causes Mayhem
- UBSG SW : UBS Loses Middle East Wealth Bankers It Hired Two Years Ago
- VFS US : VinFast Seeks to Shed Most Debt With Vietnam Factory Spinoffs