FT : Tank maker KNDS comes late to the European defence boom

Tank maker KNDS comes late to the European defence boom
The Franco-German group might fare better reviving a previously rejected alliance with Rheinmetall

Timing is critical on the battlefield, and in the capital markets. Infelicitous, then, that Franco-German tank maker KNDS is aiming to go public just as the once-blistering defence rally moves into reverse.

Europe’s aerospace and defence stocks, gauged by the Stoxx sub-index, nearly quadrupled between Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and this January; they have now shed a fifth. Artillery maker Rheinmetall, a huge beneficiary of Germany’s pumped-up defence spending, flunked analysts’ expectations on sales and profit in the first quarter, driving its shares lower.

There are still strong arguments for vastly increased defence spending, including wars, national security and the US’s reluctance to pay for world peace. Nato allies have committed to lifting spending to 5 per cent of economic output a year by 2035. But finding the money is proving tougher, and companies are suffering from contract delays.


KNDS has its own issues. Its equal ownership by German families and the French state complicates any initial public offering. Berlin, for national security reasons, wants to take on some of the families’ holdings but negotiations have dragged over stake size and price, as well as politics. Chair Tom Enders has said he will press ahead in the summer regardless of resolution, but investors should want to see ownership issues clarified first.

Views are also shifting on what equipment defence entails. KNDS’s Leopard 2 tanks define the theatre of war, but are increasingly overtaken by fancier airborne kit such as drones and interceptors. That pivot has driven German drone maker Helsing to an $18bn valuation and Anduril, the US tech group backed by Peter Thiel, to $60bn. KNDS’s work with start-ups to incorporate drones and the like into its systems pales by comparison.

Against that backdrop, a proposal by Czech ammunition maker Czechoslovak Group to buy a stake in KNDS from its German family owners might seem like a helpful development. Political resistance, though, as well as Czechoslovak Group’s own falling share price, suggest very long odds on such a deal happening.

KNDS might fare better reviving a previously rejected alliance with Rheinmetall, which has in the past proposed buying a stake too. The duo already co-operate on a host of military kit, including self-propelled howitzers and in Boxer and Puma fighting vehicles. Moreover, Rheinmetall offers a roadmap for diversification, having expanded into shipbuilding, drones and space.

A targeted valuation of up to €20bn looks far-fetched. Even if KNDS matched Rheinmetall’s sales growth and profitability last year and this, it would be on course to make just €800mn of operating profit. At the top end, investors would need to be prepared to pay 25 times that, when Rheinmetall trades at 20 times, according to LSEG. KNDS has missed the moment when investors will bid up anything with a chance of ending up on the front line.

>>> Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • ADP (ADP) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $214
    • American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James, tgt $35
    • Ball Corp. (BALL) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $60
    • Canada Goose (GOOS) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Williams Trading
    • Circle Internet (CRCL) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $150
    • Crown Holdings (CCK) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $107
    • F5 (FFIV) upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $475
    • Invitation Homes (INVH) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James, tgt $32
    • Lam Research (LRCX) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $331
    • Repsol (REPYY) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC
    • Shell (SHEL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC
    • VF Corp. (VFC) upgraded to Buy from Sell at Williams Trading, tgt $19
    • Viking Holdings (VIK) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $109
    • Westlake (WLK) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan, tgt $90
    • Zscaler (ZS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley, tgt $225
  • Downgrades:
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $502
    • CoreWeave (CRWV) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson
    • Inter&Co (INTR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, tgt $6.50
    • Nebius (NBIS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson
    • Outlook Therapeutics (OTLK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research
    • Pembina Pipeline (PBA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
    • Regeneron (REGN) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Leerink, tgt $641
    • Regeneron (REGN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, tgt $700
  • Others:
    • America Movil (AMX) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $31.80
    • Arcus Biosciences (RCUS) assumed with a Buy at Truist, tgt $35
    • Arm (ARM) initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein, tgt $300
    • Burlington Stores (BURL) initiated with a Hold at Truist, tgt $305
    • Elmet (ELMT) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord, tgt $20
    • Elmet (ELMT) initiated with a Buy at Needham, tgt $21
    • Elmet (ELMT) initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital, tgt $21
    • Elmet (ELMT) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $20
    • Icon (ICLR) resumed with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital, tgt $123
    • Korro Bio (KRRO) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup, tgt $21
    • Marks & Spencer (MAKSY) initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    • Mobileye (MBLY) initiated with an Underperform at Jefferies, tgt $8
    • National Healthcare Properties (NHP) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $20
    • National Healthcare Properties (NHP) initiated with an Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $16
    • National Healthcare Properties (NHP) initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital, tgt $17
    • National Healthcare Properties (NHP) initiated with an Outperform at Robert W. Baird, tgt $17
    • National Healthcare Properties (NHP) initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital, tgt $15
    • National Healthcare Properties (NHP) initiated with a Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Picard Medical (PMI) initiated with a Neutral at H.C. Wainwright
    • Presidio (FTW) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair
    • Q32 Bio (QTTB) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald
    • Revolution Medicines (RVMD) assumed with a Buy at Truist, tgt $179
    • Ross Stores (ROST) initiated with a Buy at Truist, tgt $270
    • Salesforce (CRM) reinstated with an Underperform at BofA Securities, tgt $160
    • ServiceNow (NOW) reinstated with a Buy at BofA Securities, tgt $130
    • SoftBank Group (SFTBY) initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein
    • Telefonica Brasil (VIV) initiated with a Sell at Goldman, tgt $13.90
    • Tesco (TSCDY) initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    • Tim SA (TIMB) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $23.40
    • TJX (TJX) initiated with a Buy at Truist, tgt $175
    • Yesway (YSWY) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim, tgt $30
    • Yesway (YSWY) initiated with an Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $28
    • Yesway (YSWY) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $28
    • Yesway (YSWY) initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $29
    • Yesway (YSWY) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital, tgt $30
    • Yesway (YSWY) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays, tgt $31
    • Yesway (YSWY) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc, tgt $31

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance:
  • REGN -11.4%, IQ -3.4%
Other news:
  • CATX -5.2% (Announced first patients dosed with [212Pb]VMT-a-NET and [212Pb]PSV359 in new Phase 1/2a study cohorts.)
  • JBS -5.0% (White House said Trump and Xi reached consensus on trade, rare earths, and China buying 200 Boeing aircraft.)
  • SWX -4.8% (Carl Icahn exits position in latest 13F filing; Corvex Management lowers stake)
  • NBTX -4.2% (Presents phase 2 data showing JNJ-1900 was feasible, safe, and produced promising responses in stage III unresectable NSCLC.)
  • ENPH -4.1% (Soros Fund exits position in latest 13F filing)
  • UNH -3.5% (Berkshire Hathaway and Viking Global exit positions in latest 13F filings; Appaloosa lowers stake)
  • FJET -3.3% (Delayed 10-Q filing after management couldn't obtain bank information needed to complete review procedures; expects to file within extension period.)
  • INDV -3.2% (Soros Fund exited its position in the company in its updated 13F portfolio filing.)
  • IVZ -2.9% (Trian Fund maintained its Invesco holding at approximately 2.97 million shares in its updated 13F filing.)
  • CORZ -2.7% (Soros Fund increased its stake to 329,000 shares from 5,000 in the latest 13F filing.)
  • NEE -2.2% (to combine with Dominion Energy (D) an all-stock transaction)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance:
  • RAMP +27.2%, SHAZ +9.4%, BRC +5.7%, BIDU +4.0%, AREC +5.0%, AMCI +4.0%, CGC +1.9%, RNW +1.9%
Other news:
  • GOVX +150.4% (WHO declared the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in Congo and Uganda a public health emergency of international concern.)
  • HIVE +19.3% (Announced BUZZ is advancing an Ontario infrastructure project for an AI gigafactory hosting over 100,000 GPUs.)
  • CMPS +18.6% (Says it is a near-term FDA approval trade, with ATAI bought as complementary Phase 3 exposure.)
  • D +14.3% (being acquired by NextEra Energy (NEE) in all-stock transaction)
  • YSS +8.7% (Entered into a definitive agreement to acquire ALL.SPACE, a provider of advanced satellite communications terminals and connectivity solutions.)
  • FLX +4.5% (Signed strategic investment agreement to expand into drone delivery and low-altitude logistics in Hangzhou.)
  • ROIV +4.3% (increased holdings in recent 13F filings by Viking Global and Greenlight Capital.)
  • F +4.1% (Announces Europe product and services rollout, including five new multi-energy vehicles and expanded commercial connected services)
  • SATS +3.5% (Carl Icahn lowered his holding to 1.4 million shares from 3.35 million shares in a 13F filing.)
  • AORT +3.4% (Completed acquisition of Endospan, funding the $135 million upfront net purchase price with a previously drawn term loan.)

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18th of May 2026 V3(++)

>>> Up
* ABN Amro GDRs PT Raised to 41 euros from 38.10 euros at Citi
* Burberry Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 1,350 pence
* BW LPG Raised to Hold at DNB Carnegie; PT 199 kroner (++)
* Draegerwerk Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* FLSmidth Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 545 kroner (+)
* FLSmidth Raised to Buy at Danske Bank Markets; PT 570 kroner (++)
* Infineon PT Raised to 80 euros from 52 euros at Citi
* Interpump raised to Buy from Hold at Kepller Cheuvreux, PT Euro 43
* Kempower Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 15 euros
* Mowi Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 220 kroner
* NKT Price Target Raised to DKK 1,175 from DKK 955 by Nordea
* Repsol raised to Buy From Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux PT Euro 25.5
* Rheinmetall Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 1,408 euros (+)
* Saab Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 527 kronor (+)
* SGS Reinstated Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 102 Swiss francs (++)
* Shell raised to Buy from Hold at HSBC PT 3,700p

>>> Down
* Applied Materials Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley (+)
* BPER Banca Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 13.40 euros (+)
* Commerzbank Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT 39 euros
* Future Plc Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 355 pence (++)
* Medistim Cut to Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 230 kroner (++)
* Nanobiotix SA Cut to Hold at Portzamparc; PT 35 euros (+)
* Ouster Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management; PT $35
* Oxford Instruments Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 3,000 pence
* Regeneron Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $700
* Tate & Lyle Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 547 pence (++)
* Taylor Wimpey Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
* TKH GDRs Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 53 euros

>>> Initiation
* AMAG Austria Reinstated Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 31.50 euros (++)
* America Movil ADRs Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $31.80
* Brave Bison Rated New Buy at Shore Capital; PT 125 pence
* Cohort Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT 1,290 pence
* Elmet Group Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $21
* Intertek Reinstated Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 6,000 pence (++)
* Mobileye Rated New Underperform at Jefferies; PT $8
* Naturgy Rated New Buy at NSV; PT 30.40 euros
* Tim Brasil ADRs Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $23.40
* Vivo ADRs Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $13.90

>>> Call
* ABN Amro Price Target Raised to Street High at Citi After 1Q
* Burberry Upgraded at Morgan Stanley, Now a Top Pick in Luxury
* BMO Confirms SAP's Outperform Rating After Sapphire 2026 Event
* BofA: Hochtief 'Looks Poised' for Outlook Upgrade by Q3 Results; Price Objective, Estimates Up (+)
* Oxford Instruments Seems Fairly Valued, Cut to Hold at Berenberg
* RBC Updates Forecasts for RWE After Q1 Results; Outperform Rating Kept

Reuters - China’s Xpeng begins mass production of robotaxis in Guangzhou

China’s Xpeng begins mass production of robotaxis in Guangzhou

BEIJING, May 18 (Reuters) - Chinese electric ​vehicle maker Xpeng (9868.HK), opens new tab said on ‌Monday it had begun mass production of its first robotaxi at ​its Guangzhou headquarters, targeting ​fully driverless operations by early ⁠2027.

The Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab rival is ​accelerating its shift toward driverless vehicles ​and humanoid robotics as competition intensifies in the world’s largest auto ​market.

Stay up to date with the latest news, trends and innovations that are driving the global automotive industry with the Reuters Auto File newsletter. Sign up here.

The new robotaxi, built on ​Xpeng's GX platform, is China’s first "production-ready, ‌pre-assembled ⁠robotaxi model developed entirely with in-house technologies," the company said.

Xpeng plans to begin pilot robotaxi ​operations ​in the ⁠second half of the year.

The company will ​likely produce hundreds to ​thousands ⁠of robotaxis over the next 12 to 18 months, President ⁠Brian ​Gu told Reuters last ​month.

>>> La Lettre de l'Expansion - 18/05/2026

LLE — 18/05/26
EDITO EU = political dwarf post Trump-Xi Beijing. Inaudible on Ukraine/Venezuela/Taiwan. Market for US AI + Chinese EVs.

STELLANTIS Filosa strat plan Thu 21/05 from Auburn Hills. 4 priority brands: PEUG/FIAT/JEEP/RAM. DS/Lancia/Maserati = niche. Dongfeng coop on Rennes/Villaverde/Cassino plants (<50% utilization). EV-bashing counter-cyclical w/ crude >$100.

JPM Relocating Paris traders → London (tax driver). Paris: 1,000 FTE, €920m cumul tax. New 265m Canary Wharf tower (250k sqm, 12k seats).

ROTHSCHILD Saskia (39) replaces Éric (85) at Concordia (52% of bank). UK branch can sell 4.95% (~€60m) July 2026; Anthony likely exercises put.

BOLLORÉ Acquires 31.5% Verdant Orchards (Mauritius/Zambia/SA/Mozambique citrus+avocado). Cash >€5bn. Also 98.6% Redlands Farm (3,300ha olive oil GA/FL).

AIRBUS 181 deliv YTD vs 870 target. Needs 86/mo. P&W GTF shortage = key bottleneck. Faury lobbying VdL for dereg.

AIR LIQUIDE Sells biogas EU+US to Mobius Renewables (IFM-backed, Houston). 6 US sites + 5 FR methanization + maj. Redo Biosolutions (NO/SE).

KERING McQueen strike 20/05 Florence vs ReconKering (de Meo, 16/04).

DANONE Closes Bridgeton NJ (Silk/So Delicious, 120 jobs). US plant milk $2.7bn -2% YoY.

VINCI Acquires ION Property Group (UK) — urban regen.

SAINT-GOBAIN Extends La Défense lease to 2037 (49k sqm).

STORY — AI LABOUR Data labeling $4-6bn (+25% CAGR). Scale AI $290m→$870m ('22-'24); Meta paid $14bn for 49% ($29bn valo) — Google/OpenAI since cut allocations. 154-435m global microtask workers. OpenAI/Sama Kenya: $12.50/h billed vs $2/h paid. Humanoids (TSLA/Figure/Agility) need human behavior data → wearable cam training.

ORMUZ/FERTILIZER (Le Lab) Urea +28% in 3wks. 20% global LNG via Hormuz (93% Qatar). Gas = 70-85% ammonia cost. 1.78bn ppl dependent. Fertilizers still +71% vs '15-'19 avg.

CEPR/BoI Gas shock = STRUCTURAL inflation driver vs transitory oil. Threshold effect amplified in inflationary regime → ECB implication.

PRESIDENTIELLE 2027 Philippe structures team (Béchu/Boyer/Guévenoux). Élysée tracks Attal (commando), Philippe (slow), Retailleau (rising). Adidas Arena 5/07.

BdF Moulin hearings 20/05 (succeeds VdG, early exit pre Nov 2027).

LPM AN vote 19/05: +€36bn (€8bn munitions, €2bn drones). €436bn 2024-30, €76.3bn/yr by 2030 = 2.5% GDP.
NEW CALEDONIA Provincials 28/06. Roll thaw +10,560 natives. Spouses contested.

FRENCHFOUNDERS/ODOXA 62% FR-speaking CEOs confident '26; France only 46% (APAC 73%). 76% cite geopolitics. 84% see US trade as threat to global econ.

EN VUE Andriès (Safran €300m plan, new Gennevilliers press) • Dedeyan (LBP × Mistral AI) • Drahi (Pereira criminal complaint, up to €500m exposure pre-SFR sale) • Lévy (MSL France → Publicis €5m, €2m capital gain) • Vranken (Pommery refi €50m).

>>> STOCK ANALYSIS - Smart Money 13F × Q1 2026 Earnings



From: Laurent Chekroun (MAKOR CAPITAL MARKET) At: 05/16/26 09:38:26 UTC+2:00
Subject: >>> STOCK ANALYSIS - Smart Money 13F × Q1 2026 Earnings

STOCK ANALYSIS
Smart Money 13F × Q1 2026 Earnings | May 16, 2026

GOOG/GOOGL — Q1 EPS $5.11 vs $2.63 BEAT +$2.48 | Rev +21.8% YoY Buffett tripled GOOGL (17.85M→54.25M), added new GOOG. Third Point, Lone Pine, Himalaya all in. Altimeter exited — poorly timed. Signal: STRONG BUY. Consensus validated.

META — Q1 EPS $10.44 vs $6.67 BEAT +$3.77 | Rev +33.1% YoY Tiger Global, Third Point, Altimeter all added. ValueAct trimmed modestly. One of the cleanest buy-and-beat stories of the quarter. Signal: STRONG BUY. Validated.

AMZN — Q1 EPS $2.78 vs $1.63 BEAT +$1.15 | Rev +16.6% YoY Ackman added aggressively (9.61M→11.45M). Tiger Global held 10M. Lone Pine exited — looks like an error. Signal: BUY. Ackman & Tiger validated.

NVDA — Last Q EPS $1.62 vs $1.54 BEAT +$0.08 | Rev +73.2% YoY Altimeter (8.1M→9.34M), Tiger (11M→12M), Soros added. Third Point near-fully exited (2.95M→190K). Signal: BUY with split. Buyers look more right.

AVGO — Last Q EPS $2.05 vs $2.03 BEAT +$0.02 | Rev +29.5% YoY Tiger, Third Point, Druckenmiller, Discovery all initiated. Lone Pine exited — lone dissenter. Signal: BUY. Broad institutional consensus.

TSM — Q1 EPS $3.49 vs $3.30 BEAT +$0.19 | Rev +40.6% YoY Tiger added (3.7M→5.6M), Altimeter added. Lone Pine cut heavily (3.05M→1.39M). Signal: BUY. Tiger & Altimeter validated vs Lone Pine.

MSFT — Q3 FY26 EPS $4.27 vs $4.05 BEAT +$0.22 | Rev +18.3% YoY Gates exited (7.69M). Lone Pine, Third Point, Tiger all sold. Ackman bought new 5.65M — stark contrarian. Stock +3% today on CNBC report. Signal: DIVERGENCE. Ackman contrarian buy, watch closely.

UBER — Q1 EPS $0.72 vs $0.69 BEAT +$0.03 | Rev slight miss | +14.5% YoY Altimeter added sharply (+42%, 5.59M→7.97M). Signal: BUY. Altimeter conviction validated on EPS.

APP — Q1 EPS $3.56 vs $3.44 BEAT +$0.12 | Rev +58.9% YoY Lone Pine near-doubled (0.78M→1.46M). Tiger trimmed. Signal: STRONG BUY. Lone Pine's best call of the quarter.

INTC — Q1 EPS $0.29 vs $0.02 MASSIVE BEAT +$0.27 | Rev +7.4% YoY Tiger (new 1.6M), Druckenmiller (new 411K) both initiated simultaneously. Signal: TURNAROUND BUY. Simultaneous elite initiation + huge beat.

DAL — Q1 EPS $0.64 vs $0.58 BEAT +$0.06 | Rev +9.4% YoY Buffett new position 39.81M shares — extraordinary given his historical airline aversion. Druckenmiller exited before Buffett bought. Signal: BUY (Buffett). Druckenmiller wrong on timing.

NCLH — Q1 EPS $0.23 vs $0.14 BEAT +$0.09 | Rev +9.6% YoY Elliott new 13.19M shares. Signal: BUY. Elliott bought ahead of a clean beat.

HPE — Q1 EPS $0.65 vs $0.59 BEAT +$0.06 | Rev +18.4% YoY Elliott added aggressively (18.63M→27.42M). Signal: BUY. Elliott validated.

FISV — Q1 EPS $1.79 vs $1.57 BEAT +$0.22 | Rev flat YoY Jana Partners doubled (2.25M→4.44M). Signal: BUY. Jana's best call — big beat.

KMX — Fiscal Q4 EPS $0.34 vs $0.20 BEAT +$0.14 | Rev -1% YoY Starboard new 6.2M. Signal: ACTIVIST BUY. EPS beat validates entry point.

CPNG — Q1 EPS -$0.15 vs -$0.09 MISS -$0.06 | Rev +7.5% YoY (decelerating) Altimeter exited 15.68M, Lone Pine exited, Druckenmiller cut 6.8M→2.7M. Tiger Global massively added (26.3M→34.6M). Signal: CONTESTED. Sellers validated by miss. Tiger is the contrarian — biggest single divergence of the season.

RIG — Q1 EPS -$0.03 vs $0.08 MISS -$0.11 | Rev +19.3% YoY Elliott new 15.63M. Oil at $105/bbl today. Signal: SPECULATIVE. Revenue beats; EPS misses. Elliott playing offshore drilling cycle + oil price surge.

TRIP — Q1 EPS -$0.11 vs -$0.07 MISS -$0.04 | Rev -4.0% YoY Starboard added (9.6M→10.8M), Einhorn new 1.56M. Soros exited. Signal: ACTIVIST ONLY. Soros right to exit. Starboard & Einhorn playing restructuring/M&A.

LUV — Q1 EPS $0.45 vs $0.47 MISS -$0.02 | Rev +12.8% YoY Elliott cut massively (-41%, 51.13M→30.35M). Signal: EXIT. Elliott right — activist campaign stalling, miss confirms.

TOST — Q1 EPS $0.20 vs $0.27 MISS -$0.07 | Rev +21.9% YoY ValueAct near-doubled (8.02M→12.9M). Signal: ACTIVIST LONG-TERM. EPS miss near-term headwind but rev growth solid. ValueAct playing operational improvement.

PTON — Q1 EPS $0.06 vs $0.08 MISS -$0.02 | Rev +1.1% YoY Einhorn added aggressively (0.25M→10.11M, +40x). Signal: HIGH RISK TURNAROUND. Einhorn making a very large bet on recovery.

WULF — Q1 EPS -$1.01 vs -$0.20 MASSIVE MISS -$0.81 | Rev -1.1% YoY Lone Pine new 19.92M (biggest new position). Signal: PURE SPECULATION. Power assets & crypto infrastructure thesis — not an earnings story.

HLT — Q1 EPS $2.01 vs $1.98 BEAT +$0.03 | Rev +9.0% YoY Ackman exited 3.03M. Lone Pine added modestly. Signal: MIXED. Ackman sold a beater to rotate into MSFT.

ARM — Q1 EPS $0.60 vs $0.58 BEAT +$0.02 | Rev +20.1% YoY Altimeter new 1.72M. Signal: BUY. Clean beat, AI chip royalty story.

SNOW — FY Q4 EPS $0.32 vs $0.27 BEAT +$0.05 | Rev +30.1% YoY Altimeter reduced. Tiger maintained. Signal: HOLD. Beat but growth decelerating.

FUND SCORECARD
Q1 2026 13F Season Rankings | May 16, 2026

Rank Fund Manager Grade Best Call Worst Call
🥇 1 Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett A+ GOOGL (3x, +$2.48 beat) —
🥇 2 Jana Partners Barry Rosenstein A FISV (doubled, +$0.22 beat) Minor trim on MKL
🥈 3 Altimeter Capital Brad Gerstner A- UBER +42%, ARM new (both beat) CPNG exit timing was early vs Tiger
🥈 4 Elliott Management Paul Singer A- NCLH beat, HPE beat, LUV exit right RIG EPS miss
🥈 5 Tiger Global Chase Coleman B+ NVDA, TSM, META all adds + beat CPNG add into deteriorating earnings
🏅 6 Lone Pine Capital Stephen Mandel B APP near-doubled (huge beat) WULF massive miss, AMZN exit, TSM cut
🏅 7 Third Point Dan Loeb B META new (beat), GOOGL new (beat) NVDA near-exit (AI theme intact)
🏅 8 Duquesne F.O. Stan Druckenmiller B INTC new (huge beat) DAL exit before Buffett's giant buy
🏅 9 Himalaya Capital Li Lu B GOOGL/GOOG maintained (beat) BAC cut big (3.0M from 10.4M)
⚠️ 10 Pershing Square Bill Ackman B- AMZN add (huge beat) MSFT — contrarian, verdict pending; sold HLT (a beater)
⚠️ 11 Greenlight Capital David Einhorn C+ PTON (big bet, turnaround) TRIP (miss, declining rev)
⚠️ 12 ValueAct Capital Ubben & Singer C+ TOST (long-term activist) TOST EPS miss near-term; DIS cut
⚠️ 13 Starboard Value Jeffrey Smith C KMX beat, TRIP activist TRIP miss/decline
⚠️ 14 Trian Fund Nelson Peltz C Steady WEN/JHG holdings No major new conviction bets
❓ 15 Soros Fund George Soros Incomplete Correctly exited TRIP before miss EVGO add (speculative)

Bottom line: Buffett and Jana were the sharpest this quarter — both bought into stocks that subsequently delivered strong beats. Altimeter and Elliott showed disciplined conviction with earnings validation on most moves. The biggest open debate is Ackman (MSFT contrarian buy) vs. the crowd, and Tiger vs. consensus on CPNG. Both will be resolved next quarter.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • RAMP +26.7%, CMPS +20.6%, SHAZ +13.1%, D +11.9%, DXYZ +11.4%, DSGN +11.3%, MAKO +9.1%, MTUS +9.1%, ANL +9.0%, ACVA +7.3%, EDN +7.2%, SATS +5.5%, M +5.3%, KRUS +4.9%, EMA +4.6%, BIDU +3.9%, TALO +3.7%, FR +3.6%, DOLE +3.5%, ARLP +3.2%, SD +2.9%, NHI +2.7%, SKE +2.6%, FLR +2.6%, TME +2.5%, SPB +2.5%, DAL +2.3%, AAMI +2.3%, SLM +2.3%, VSEC +2.2%, HPP +2.1%, WEST +1.8%
  • Gapping down:
    • REGN -10.9%, LI -9.4%, IEP -5.0%, UNH -5.0%, BILL -4.9%, SWX -4.8%, ENLT -4.6%, ENPH -4.3%, KWR -4.3%, HESM -4.0%, SGI -3.9%, AAUC -3.9%, ASST -3.8%, BRUN -3.8%, GTY -3.4%, MICC -3.4%, SEDG -3.3%, XHR -3.1%, BKU -2.7%, ITT -2.3%, HUT -2.3%, CRM -2.0%, THC -1.9%