>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Wirecard (WDI TH) +2%
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) -0.2%
    • Deutsche Bank Cuts Investment Bank Bonuses About 30% in Overhaul
MDAX:
  • Qiagen (QIA TH) +6.3%
    • Qiagen Gains After CTFN Says Co. Talking to An Interested Party
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) +2.5%
    • ProSieben Raised to Buy at Citi
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) +1.8%
  • Varta (VAR1 TH) +1.5%
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) +1.3%
  • GEA Group (G1A TH) -2.3%
    • GEA Group Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 24 euros
SDAX:
  • DIC Asset (DIC TH) +8.2%
    • DIC Asset 2019 Dividend Meets Estimates, FY Ebit Rises
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) +2.6%
  • Schaeffler (SHA TH) +2.5%
  • Stroeer (SAX TH) +2.3%
    • Stroeer Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 86.40 euros
  • Salzgitter (SZG TH) +1.5%
  • RIB Software (RIB TH) -1.3%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) -1.5%

FT : Europe braces for new fiscal battles

Europe braces for new fiscal battles
The Stability and Growth Pact has been described as out of date and in need of a serious overhaul

The EU’s fiscal rules are widely disliked given their impenetrable and convoluted nature — yet it is difficult to avoid setting off political landmines somewhere in the union when any change to them is mooted.

In early February, the commission will tread delicately back into the debate with an overdue report on the so-called six-pack and two-pack legislative packages, which overhauled the fiscal rules during the euro crisis. Officials don’t expect the report to set china rattling in embassy parlours when it is released in Brussels on February 5; it is being couched as a retrospective look at the operation of the rules in recent years, rather than an opportunity to table reform proposals. 

But a public consultation on possible future changes is also being planned — and the commissioner in charge of EU economic policy, Paolo Gentiloni, has been making no secret of his desire to shake the regime up. Meetings of finance ministers in Brussels early this week could provide early hints of the new battles ahead.


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Mr Gentiloni has described the Stability and Growth Pact, which governs the fiscal regime, as out of date and in need of a serious overhaul, given the current low growth and inflation era. On the Italian social democrat’s reform wishlist will be changes making the rules more symmetrical — allowing for countries to be pushed to boost their economies via fiscal policy in downturns, rather than just reining in deficits and debt.

This, however, would be anathema to fiscally conservative states in northern Europe. Mr Gentiloni also has to contend with Valdis Dombrovskis, the commission executive vice-president who oversees economic and financial matters — and who is stricter on fiscal policy.

Reform-minded officials will therefore also need to find less politically incendiary changes to the rulebook.

One idea is to give countries extra scope to borrow to fund green investment. The potential reform — achievable through tweaks to internal commission rules — has already run up against opposition from conservative northern European states. Mr Gentiloni is hoping the urgency of the green agenda could improve its chances.

The commission will also look at ways to simplify the rules. One option, for example, might be to place a greater emphasis on concrete measures such as public expenditure, and less on difficult-to-measure concepts such as the structural deficit.

The structural deficit is impenetrable to the public, and the cause of frequent squabbles among economists — not to mention member states. It also draws on data that can be subject to major subsequent revisions. The advisory European Fiscal Board suggested an alternative framework last September.

Any attempt to simplify the rules will also be seized upon by the duelling camps, however. Some will want to use any reform opportunity to loosen the regime. Others will wish to use the greater clarity to make the deficit rules even tighter.

WSJ : U.S. Companies Fuel Europe’s Green-Energy Push

U.S. Companies Fuel Europe’s Green-Energy Push
Google, Amazon cut emissions and power costs by buying wind and solar energy in the EU

BRUSSELS—U.S. companies are underwriting the European Union’s ambitious climate goals, fueling the bloc’s green-energy transition with power deals that cut emissions and costs.

Alphabet Inc.’s GOOG 1.98% Google bought enough wind and solar energy for its EU data centers last year to power roughly a half-million European homes annually. Investments from Amazon. AMZN -0.70% com Inc. are underwriting Ireland’s first wind farm to operate without subsidies, as well as renewable projects in Spain, Sweden and the U.K.

Alcoa Corp., AA -0.51% McDonald’s Corp., MCD 0.54% Facebook Inc. FB 0.17% and Microsoft Corp. MSFT 0.56% also are buying renewables in Europe.

More than half of all corporate long-term renewables contracts signed for electricity in the EU since 2007 are with U.S. companies, which report savings of up to 10% from stable and competitive prices. The deals are helping transform European electricity grids long dominated by coal, gas and nuclear powered plants.

U.S. investments come as the EU seeks to cut greenhouse-gas emissions to net-zero—neutralizing releases of carbon dioxide and other gasses contributing to global warming—in part by nearly doubling the share of renewable energy to 32% by 2030. Meeting EU climate goals will cost the bloc €260 billion ($290 billion) a year over the next decade, officials say.

“We need a significant rise in investments into renewables,” EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said, urging a blend of public and private cash to drive a clean-power transition.

The challenge, power buyers say, is getting electricity from one part of Europe to another. Europe’s plans for greener energy must overcome markets that are still divided by country, some of which subsidize power producers in ways that undercut corporate electricity deals. Only in Northern Europe are power markets integrated and liquid, while France, Germany and markets further south are more segmented.

“Europe is so Balkanized in its regulatory structure around renewables,” Amazon Web Services’ Energy Strategy Director Nat Sahlstrom said. “It has gotten a lot better in the last five years, but it’s still not seamless.”

In the U.S., where companies say regional markets are more integrated, corporate buyers contracted almost 30,000 megawatts of wind and solar capacity since 2006, compared with 8,263 megawatts in Europe, according to clean-energy research provider BloombergNEF.

Still, U.S. companies see EU climate goals as a chance to economize because suppliers want to sign long-term contracts. Rising renewable capacity and plummeting upfront costs have made wind- and solar-energy prices competitive against fossil fuels. Shifting to zero-emission sources also helps companies burnish their environmental credentials.

Amazon said in September that by 2040 it would meet Paris Agreement goals to curb global warming, as thousands of its employees demanding action joined a global climate strike.

Google, the world’s biggest corporate buyer of renewable energy, signed its first renewables contract in 2010 in the U.S. Aided by the EU deals, Google sourced all its power globally from renewables in 2017 and 2018.

Facebook is looking to replicate Google’s achievement this year, and Amazon said it would use 100% renewable energy by 2030.

American companies underwrote 53% of all corporate-backed wind and solar projects in the EU, according to BloombergNEF. Their investments bolster demand and underwrite the expansion of green power, just as EU countries are removing subsidies that for decades underpinned renewable energy projects.

The cornerstone for corporate renewable deals rests on so-called power purchase agreements, or PPAs, that U.S. companies have been using over the past decade.

Under PPAs, companies typically finance projects that add renewable energy sources to the grid that powers their operations. That allows firms to claim renewable-energy credits based on the capacity of a solar or wind farm, which often matches a buyer’s annual demand. It also means that on days when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow, companies can rely on other power sources feeding into the grid, including fossil fuels, nuclear or stored energy.

“What we’ve seen is Europe really accelerate corporate PPA uptakes. As a result, we were able to accelerate our engagement in Europe,” Google Head of Energy Strategy Neha Palmer said in an interview.

The investments are coming despite obstacles including Europe’s antiquated and fragmented power grid, impediments to certifying green-power purchases and transmission limits.

“These PPAs are very important because they could be a very good way to fund, with private money, renewable-energy generation. However, there are still important barriers,” said Felice Simonelli of the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies and co-author of an EU-commissioned report on corporate renewables purchases.

Still, businesses motivated by competitive long-term prices and green credentials mark a turning point for Europe’s energy transition, Mr. Simonelli said. Renewable power contracts can reduce operating costs by as much as 10%, his study found.

Corporate-backed renewable projects in the EU also could generate an estimated €750 billion in investments and 220,000 jobs by 2030, according to Mr. Simonelli’s report. The flood of private money would come as the EU seeks to mobilize €1 trillion under its European Green Deal to help coal-reliant economies transition into cleaner energy and finance investments to meet the bloc’s climate goals.

“It’s music to governments’ ears,” says Sam Kimmins, head of RE100, a group of more than 200 multinationals—including Apple Inc., Google, Mars Inc. and Citigroup Inc. —committed to using 100% renewable energy.

Plummeting costs for green energy also have contributed to the surge of investments in Europe.

In the 2015 to 2018 period, onshore wind prices were on average 7.5% lower than major European market prices, while solar was almost 4% cheaper, Citigroup analysts said in a report earlier this month. Some €500 billion of investments by 2030 will fuel a massive renewables expansion, Citi said, making wind and solar power 20% and 15% cheaper, respectively, than broader European market prices.

“Europe is catching up and may overtake the U.S.,” Mr. Kimmins said. “There’s certainly competition there.”

FT : Living with Damien Hirst and friends

Living with Damien Hirst and friends
Robert Tibbles was an early collector of the Young British Artists — now he is preparing to sell many of his acquisitions

Everyone likes to say that they discovered an artist before they were famous, but in the case of the London bond salesman Robert Tibbles, the claim is true. Back in the 1980s, the late art dealer Karsten Schubert introduced Tibbles to the work of an art student called Damien Hirst. Alongside Charles Saatchi, Tibbles then became one of the now-superstar artist’s first buyers.

So began an intense, 15-year collecting spree, mostly of works by Hirst and other Young British Artists. These now dominate Tibbles’s Victorian ground-floor flat in London’s leafy Kensington, where an early Hirst spot painting, “Antipyrylazo III” (1994), has loomed almost too large over the living room fireplace since Tibbles bought it in the year it was made.

Hanging nearby is another early purchase — Hirst’s degree-show medicine cabinet “Bodies” (1989) — a work that demonstrates Tibbles’s aptitude for picking the right time in the art market as well as the debt markets. He bought the cabinet for £600 (again, in the year it was made) and now, as Tibbles prepares to sell much of his YBA collection at auction at Phillips in London, the cabinet is valued between £1.2m and £1.8m.

“There’s no question that the medicine cabinet and other works were not liked or understood by many of my friends. But I’ve always thought that [Hirst] has such a clever way of looking at things and there’s been a change of attitude towards him since. Truthfully, though, most of the status of any artwork is now in its price,” Tibbles says, with a frankness that is rare in the art collecting community.


Hirst himself has fond memories of the banker. “I remember Robert very well, he was so excited by the art. It was in the days when I installed my own work in people’s houses, so I went round and met him and he made me tea,” the artist tells me.

Hirst also notes that, unlike other early buyers of the cabinets, Tibbles held on to his work for a long time. “Robert is a proper collector and I’m really touched he kept and lived with my work for all those years,” he says.

Indeed, unlike in his day job, Tibbles says he did not buy art with investment in mind. “It was more a case of keeping an eye [on prices] because I had to be able to afford the works. You have to be prepared for the fact that art doesn’t really do anything [in terms of generating income] until you sell it,” he says.


He certainly bought the works to live with. Other paintings for sale next month include Julian Opie’s “Imagine you are driving (4)” (1997, £20,000-£30,000), a vast, tantalising road to nowhere, which seems to touch the pillows of the bed that Tibbles shares with his partner of 21 years. Two other large-scale works, by the YBA tutor Michael Craig-Martin, rather overwhelm the hallway and living room and have a personal resonance for Tibbles, who now counts the artist among his friends.

Specialists at Phillips believe that one of these, “Full” (2000), which combines elements from important artists such as Jasper Johns and Marcel Duchamp, will beat the artist’s current auction record of £140,000 (£175,000 with fees), though they have estimated the painting conservatively at between £80,000 and £120,000.

Several of the works that Tibbles is selling seem to reflect a part of his life. In particular, a large Gilbert & George double portrait, “City Fairies” (1991, £120,000-£180,000), spoke to him as a gay man working in an alpha-male world, he says. “Until I was about 40, it wasn’t something I talked much about. But things are changing and we’re lucky to be out of the period when gay men in the City pretended to have a girlfriend in New York,” Tibbles says.

He is also full of stories about the artists he has met since buying their work. Of the huge Hirst spot painting, estimated to sell between £900,000 and £1.2m, Tibbles says the artist told him that each of its 2,050 little circles is hand-painted in a different colour. “I haven’t managed to prove him wrong yet,” the collector adds.

The personal nature of the collection prompts the question of why he is now selling it. On this, Tibbles is unusually reticent, but there are clues in the facts that he turns 60 this year and is having a rethink career-wise too. He started out at the US brokerage firm PaineWebber in London in 1993 and stayed on when the bank was bought by UBS in 2000. In 2014, as UBS went through a major downsizing exercise, they “let me go”, Tibbles says.

He then went to work at Santander, where he stayed until the end of 2019. “The industry has changed, yields are low as there’s a reduced appetite for risk. Fund managers aren’t having much fun any more,” he says. But, he hints, it’s more of a pause, both in terms of his work and art buying. “I feel like a leaf in the wind, but in a good way. I’ve had such a lovely time with these works but the collection is complete and it’s got to the stage when I’ve started noticing other things,” he says, without elaborating on where else his interests may lie.


That may, of course, depend on how much he makes from the works — dubbed the “Cool Britannia collection” by the auction house — when they come to market on February 13 and 14 (their total combined estimate is about £4m). Many of the artists on offer, not least Hirst, have had their ups and downs on the market in recent years, while the YBAs’ cheeky exuberance can seem a little anachronistic in more sombre times. But Tibbles’s early entrée adds to their value, which means it is likely to be all upside financially. “I’m lucky,” he says. “I had 10-plus years of collecting before it all went nuts.”

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 20th of January 2020

>>> Up
* Auto Trader Raised to Add at Peel Hunt; PT 600 pence
* Auto Trader Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 688 pence
* Barratt Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 720 pence
* EMS-Chemie Raised to Hold at MainFirst; PT 652 Swiss francs
* EMS-Chemie PT Raised at Baader Helvea from 485 to 510
* Medacta Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse
* Mediaset Espana Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 6 euros
* Moneysupermarket Raised to Add at Peel Hunt; PT 375 pence
* Novo Nordisk Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 445 kroner
* ProSieben Raised to Buy at Citi
* Ricardo Raised to Hold at Berenberg; PT 770 pence
* SoftwareONE Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
* Stroeer Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 86.40 euros
* UDG Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 920 pence

>>> Down
* Atresmedia Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 3.20 euros
* Asos Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 2,000 pence
* Avon Rubber Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 2,300 pence
* Bloomsbury Publishing Cut to Add at Peel Hunt; PT 315 pence
* Cairn Energy Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 201 pence
* Coats Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 80 pence
* ConvaTec Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 168 pence
* GEA Group Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 24 euros
* Geberit Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse
* Hexagon Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 580 kronor
* Jungheinrich Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT 17.50 euros
* Lagardere Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 21.80 euros
* M6 Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 17.50 euros
* Reach Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 150 pence
* Wolters Kluwer Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 58.40 euros
* WPP Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 1,160 pence
* YouGov Cut to Add at Peel Hunt; PT 700 pence

>>> Initiation
* DFDS Rated New Hold at ABG; PT 335 kroner
* Gazprom GDRs Reinstated Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT $9

>>> Call
* Asos Consensus Too High, Downgraded at Morgan Stanley
* UDG Upgraded at Berenberg Citing Growth Momentum, Expected M&A

>>> What to look at today - 20th of January 2020 (Martin Luther King Day)

Asian stocks saw modest gains as investors continued to bid up prices after seven weekly advances. A regional benchmark hit the highest level since 2018.
Oil saw the most dramatic moves on a Monday that may be otherwise subdued by a U.S. holiday. Crude rose following supply disruptions in Libya and Iraq. Equities advanced in Tokyo, Seoul, Shanghai and Sydney, while Hong Kong saw declines. Despite stock gauges hitting record highs in the U.S. and Europe, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index remains more than 7% from its peak, still nursing wounds from the trade war and China’s slowdown. The offshore yuan extended recent gains, rising to the strongest since July.

Nikkei +0.18% Hang Seng -0.68% CSI +0.59% Shanghai +0.52 Shenzen +1.23%

Eur$ 1.1100 CNH +6.8521 CNY 6.8488 JPY 110.18 GBP 1.2992 CHF 0.9684 RUB 61.5012 TRY 5.8960 WTI$ 59.16 +1.06%

S&P +0.05% EuroStoxx +0.16% Dax +0.15% SMI

Macro
- China Auto Sales in 2020 Expected to Be Around 25m Units: MIIT
- U.K. Economy Won’t Stay Close to EU After Brexit, Javid Says
- Trump’s China Deal Is His Hedge Against Impeachment Damage
- Morgan Stanley Says Buy Credit Volatility, Sell Stock Equivalent

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Airbus Offers Airlines a Way to Guard Against Falling Fares
- AIR FP : Citigroup May Join Airbus Derivatives-Trading Venture: FN
- ASC LN : Asos Consensus Too High, Downgraded at Morgan Stanley
- AZN LN : AstraZeneca Granted FDA Orphan Drug Status for Tremelimumab
- AZN LN : AstraZeneca to Invest $500 Million in France Over 5 Years
- BNP FP : BNP Paribas CEO Doesn’t See European Banking Consolidation: JDD
- BNP FP : JPMorgan to Expand in Paris, Buy City Center Office Building
- CPI LN : Capita Targets £200M Sale of ‘Specialist Services’: Telegraph
- CBK GY : Pekao, Apollo Are Said to Bid for Commerzbank’s Polish Unit
- CRA1V FH : Cramo Shareholders to Accept Raised Boels Bid: Handelsbanken
- CSGN SW : Credit Suisse Calls Time on Luxury U.K. Country House Loan
- CSGN SW : Swiss Prosecutor Asked for Information on Credit Suisse CEO: SZ
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Cuts Investment Bank Bonuses About 30% in Overhaul
- DIC GY : DIC Asset 2019 Dividend Meets Estimates, FY Ebit Rises
- DIS US : U.S. Movie Ticket Sales Slide 4.6% in 2019, Variety Reports
- ERICB SS : Ericsson’s options are implying a one-day move of 7.0% after the company’s results due Jan. 24, compared with an average gain or drop of 8.4% following the last eight quarterly releases
- GLEN LN : Glencore May Cut 665 Jobs at South African Smelter, BD Says
- HIDDN NO : Hiddn Offering Prices 41.7m Shares at NOK1.20/Share
- HSBA LN : HSBC Set to Close More U.K. Branches in Cost Cutting Move: Times
- ILD FP : Iliad Launches EU1.4b Capital Increase to Finance Buyback
- INRN SW : Interroll Full Year Sales Miss Lowest Estimate
- INTU LN : Intu Wants to Launch GBP1 Billion Rights Issue: Times
- ITV LN : Former ITV Boss Crozier May Become Next Kantar Chairman:
- KER FP : Prada +6% in HK after Friday's article in WWD on potential interest from Kering
- LHA GY : Lufthansa Faces Further Strikes by German Cabin Union: Reuters
- MRK GY : Merck KGaA to Focus on Debt Reduction, CEO Tells Handelsblatt
- PRS NO : Prosafe 4Q Vessel Utilization 23%; Books $6M Non-Recurring Costs
- QIA GY : *QIAGEN GAINS AFTER CTFN SAYS TALKING TO AN INTERESTED PARTY
- SAN FP : Sanofi Says Waiting Period for Synthorx Purchase Has Expired
- VIV FP : Spotify in Early Talks to Buy Podcast Provider The Ringer: DJ
- VOW GY : Guoxuan High-Tech Says in Talks with VW; No Binding Agreement
- WPP LN : Adam Crozier in Talks to Become Chairman of Kantar: Sky News

FT : Brussels alarmed by UK’s vow to diverge from EU rules

Brussels alarmed by UK’s vow to diverge from EU rules
‘Prepare for the worst’ EU officials tell business after Sajid Javid’s FT interview

The UK’s pledge to diverge from EU rules after Brexit has provoked alarm in Brussels, with officials warning of an economically damaging split at the end of this year.

European diplomats and trade experts spent the weekend trying to make sense of comments made by Sajid Javid, UK chancellor, in an interview with the Financial Times on Friday. He urged businesses to “adjust” to a future where Britain no longer adhered to EU rules and regulations.

“The main conclusion for the real economy is: prepare for the worst. Anything agreed will be a bonus,” one EU official said.

A European diplomat warned that the kind of loose relationship outlined by Mr Javid would cause economic damage.

“In the end it is all rather simple: If Britain wants to diverge from EU rules, it will diverge,” the diplomat said. “Such an approach would obviously lead to new trade hurdles between Britain and the EU and in consequence less trade, less investments, less jobs.”


Mr Javid’s comments have prompted dismay in British business. The car industry has warned that a split from EU rules would cost “billions” of pounds and damage “UK manufacturing and consumer choice”.

Unite, the UK’s largest union, said Mr Javid’s refusal to align with EU trading rules could be fatal for automotive, aerospace, and food and drink manufacturers.

The British finance minister’s comments follow repeated warnings from the bloc that the 11-month transition period to follow Brexit day on January 31 is too short to agree a deal on the future trading relationship between the two sides.

They also represent a shift in the UK negotiating stance. Under the political declaration signed in October as part of the so-called withdrawal agreement, the UK and EU27 agreed to uphold “the common high standards” currently applicable on both sides in the areas of state aid, competition, social and employment standards, environment, climate change and tax.

Brussels has stressed that the greater the UK's divergence from EU regulations the more distant the two sides' post-Brexit relationship would become because of the additional barriers that would have to be erected to protect the single market.

Mr Javid in the FT interview urged companies to prepare for the new reality of divergence from EU rules. He said they had already had more than three years to prepare for a new relationship since the 2016 referendum on Brexit.

“There will not be alignment, we will not be a ruletaker, we will not be in the single market and we will not be in the customs union — and we will do this by the end of the year,” he said.

Asked whether any form of trade deal was possible under the conditions set by Mr Javid, an EU official said: “I think we’ve been pretty clear on the need for a level playing field.”

Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, underlined in a speech in London this month that an EU offer of tariff-free, quota-free trade would be dependent on alignment with the bloc’s fundamental rules.

Regulatory divergence by the UK could also leave its crucial financial services vulnerable. Mr Javid said he sought trade with the EU on the basis of outcome-based equivalence of rules. The problem with this is that access can be withdrawn unilaterally by the EU if UK regulation strays too far from its standards.

The bloc’s approach to financial services will be based on its own independent “equivalence decision, not negotiation,” one EU official pointed out. The established process is that the EU decides if a country’s rules and supervision can be deemed “equivalent” with its own regulation.