>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 13th of July 2020

>>> Up
* Aker BP Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 273 kroner
* Avon Rubber PT Raised to 4,200 pence at Peel Hunt
* Croda Raised to Buy at MainFirst; PT 6,000 pence
* Edenred Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 49 euros
* EnQuest Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 17 pence
* Idorsia Raised to Buy at Bank Vontobel; PT 35 Swiss francs
* Intl Petroleum Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 21 kronor
* Jupiter Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 300 pence
* Legal & General Raised to Buy at BofA; PT 265 pence
* Lundin Energy Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 292 kronor
* Ryanair Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 15.30 euros
* Serica Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 149 pence
* Zalando Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 84 euros (from €42)

>>> Down
* Aker Solutions Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 9 kroner
* Atrium Ljungberg Cut to Sell at ABG; PT 125 kronor
* EMS-Chemie Cut to Sell at MainFirst; PT 690 Swiss francs
* HelloFresh Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 42 euros
* Iliad Cut to Neutral at Bryan Garnier; PT 180 euros
* MTG Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 117 kronor

>>> Initiation
* Fevertree Drinks Rated New Overweight at Barclays
* Roche Reinstated Outperform at Bernstein; PT 380 Swiss francs

>>> Call
* AkerBP, Lundin Raised to Buy at Jefferies Under Revised Analysis
* Europe’s Capital Goods Seen Surprising on the Upside in 2Q: MS
* Adecco, Randstad Good Ways to Play Early-Cycle Recovery: RBC

>>> What to look at today - 13th of July 2020

Asian stocks climbed on Monday together with U.S. and European equity futures ahead of the start of an earnings season that will provide more clues on how companies are coping with the pandemic. The dollar slipped.
Japanese shares outperformed, rising about 2%. Gains were more modest in Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia, while Chinese shares climbed after last week’s surge. S&P 500 futures edged up as investors await banks to report results. Oil retreated, and gold rose above $1,800 an ounce. Treasury yields ticked lower.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures climb 1.2% as of 5:42 am in London, tracking gains in Asian markets and in U.S. futures, as traders look out for corporate results and how companies are coping with the pandemic.
Shares in Japan outperform, with gauges in Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia all rising
S&P 500 futures climb 0.5% as investors await results due from major banks
Analog Devices (ADI) potential acquistions of MAxim (MXIM) in a 17bil deal is helping the markwet

Nikkei +2.01% Hang Seng +1.41% CSI +2.57% Shanghai +2.19% Shenzen +3.18%

Eur$ 1.1331 CNH 6.9970 CNY 6.9973 JPY 106.92 GBP 1.2661 CHF 0.9397 RUB 70.6423 WTI$ 40.26 -0.74%

S&P +0.65% NAsdaq +0.58% EuroStoxx +1.55% FTSE +1.12% Dax +1.69% SMI +0.97%

Macro :
- Goldman Boosts S&P 500 Earnings Outlook, Says Focus on Guidance
- It’s Bad for Stock Pickers If Fed Must Do More, Bernstein Says
- Europe Set to Give ‘Wake-Up Call’ to Bonds Stuck in Summer Lull
- Kudlow Says ‘Unwise’ for Americans to Invest in China Right Now
- OPEC Readies Next Move in Bid to Avoid Oil-Market Taper Tantrum

Keep an eye on :
- ARBN SW : Arbonia Sees 1H Ebitda Rise, ‘Disproportionate’ Jump in Ebit
- ATL IM : Atlantia Not Willing to Fully Exit Autostrade: CEO to Repubblica
- ATL IM : Conte: Govt Outlined Minimal Conditions for Autostrade Offer
- ATL IM : Atlantia Ready to Cut Stake in Motorway Unit Autostrade: Reuters
- ATL IM : Italy’s Autostrade Makes Offer to Settle Government Dispute (1)
- CCL US : Carnival Says Italian Cruises Could Be Next in Return to Sailing
- CSGN SW : Credit Suisse May Cut ‘Hundreds’ of Jobs, SonntagsZeitung Says
- DNB NO : DNB Second Quarter Net Income Beats Highest Estimate
- EZJ LN : EasyJet Accused of Risking Safety With Pilot Redundancy Plans
- ECONB BB : Econocom 1H Adjusted Ebita From Continuing Operations EU43 Mln
- ENEL IM : Italy Told Enel to Reach Telecom Italia Deal, Reuters Says
- EVK GY ; Evonik CEO Says 2Q Business Going Better Than Expected: RP
- EOAN GY : EON Sells Innogy’s Czech Retail Unit to Hungary’s MVM
- FCA IM : Fiat Chrysler Recalls 925,239 Older-Model Vehicles on Air Bag
- GFS LN : G4S Agrees Deferred Prosecution Agreement With U.K. SFO
- GALP PL : Galp Second Quarter Avg Working Interest Production 132.2 Kboepd
- IVA FP : *INVENTIVA SACA OPENS AT $15.13, IPO AT $14.40
- JDW LN : JD Wetherspoon Chairman Tim Martin Sold About GBP5m of Shares
- KER FP : U.S. Targets French Luxury, Beauty Giants in Tariff Retaliation
- LONN SW : Lonza Seeks EPA Approval for Claim Its Products Kill Covid: Rtrs
- MC FP : U.S. Targets French Luxury, Beauty Giants in Tariff Retaliation
- NELES FH : Sweden’s Alfa Laval Agrees to Buy Neles in $2 Billion Deal
- NOD NO : Nordic Semiconductor Sees 3Q Revenue $95 Mln to $105 Mln
- ORK NO : Orkla Second Quarter Adjusted Ebit Beats Highest Estimate
- ROG SW : Roche Phase III Study of Tecentriq Didn’t Meet Primary Endpoint
- SL IM : Sanlorenzo: Expiration of Exclusivity Period for Perini Navi
- SIE GY : Siemens’ Neike to Succeed Helmrich as Industry Head, Paper Says
- GLE FP : Oudea Sees French Banks’ Cost of Risk Rising in 2Q : Figaro
- TCH FP : Technicolor Gets Prospectus Approval for Capital Increases
- TEF SM : Telefonica in Talks to Sell 12 Data Centers: El Confidencial
- TIT IM : Italy Told Enel to Reach Telecom Italia Deal, Reuters Says
- DG FP : Vinci Wins EU220M Contract for Work on Lyon–Turin Rail Line

FT : FCA ban on Wirecard UK left vulnerable without access to food

FCA ban on Wirecard UK left vulnerable without access to food
Some of the hardest hit included victims of human trafficking and modern slavery

The British financial regulator’s move to temporarily close German fintech Wirecard’s UK business last month left some of the country’s most vulnerable people unable to buy food or access basic services for several days.

The Financial Conduct Authority forced Wirecard Card Solutions to halt all regulated activity after its German parent company collapsed into insolvency, before lifting the restrictions the following week.

The move, announced with only a few hours’ notice, left millions of customers unable to use payment cards issued by WCS or access cash stored in their accounts. Some of the hardest hit included victims of human trafficking and modern slavery who rely on funds from a government scheme that was an indirect Wirecard customer, according to representatives for these individuals.

The FCA took action to protect customer deposits and ensure money could not be transferred back to WCS’ parent company, which is embroiled in one of postwar Germany’s biggest accounting frauds after warning that €1.9bn in cash was missing from its accounts.

However, the UK regulator had only partial information on who would be affected by its move. The FCA holds records on the number of accounts where WCS acts as an “e-money issuer”, but a person familiar with its operations said it was possible for WCS to provide other third-party services to card issuers, which did not show up in the regulator’s records.

The FCA also had no data on what proportion of WCS’ e-money account holders would be considered vulnerable, because firms are only required to make sure they treat any such individuals “fairly”.

Several WCS customers, such as Pockit and Morses Club’s U Account, specialise in consumers who are unable to access mainstream banking services. Prepaid cards and e-money accounts have become increasingly important over the past few years as cash usage has declined, enabling the 1.5m UK adults without bank accounts to access digital payments.

One client of the Anti Trafficking and Labour Exploitation Unit, a legal non-profit body, had to rely on leftovers from a Red Cross food parcel for three days after the UK government was also caught up in the problems.

“We need to make sure that adequate contingencies are in place if this happens again,” said Rebecca Kingi, a legal aid lawyer at the ATLEU. “Even a short delay in financial support for someone who is surviving on as little as £35 per week can cause huge harm.

“Given that Wirecard has been in trouble for some time now, we are not sure why the FCA’s restrictions seemed to take the Home Office’s . . . providers by surprise.”

The case highlighted the complex supply chains that make it harder for regulators to keep track of parts of the payments system. The Salvation Army provides subsistence payments to victims of human trafficking on behalf of the government. It uses prepaid debit cards supplied by B4B Payments. B4B is regulated by the FCA as an authorised payments institution but does not have an e-money licence, so relied on Wirecard as the ultimate issuer of its cards.

The Home Office and Salvation Army said they had contingency plans including paying victims through cash handouts or bank transfers. However, the prepaid cards had originally been introduced because many victims are ineligible to open bank accounts, and restrictions during the coronavirus pandemic had made it difficult to quickly disburse cash.

In a letter to the FT earlier this week, Antony Elliot, founder of the Fairbanking Foundation, said the Wirecard affair showed how vulnerable customers were receiving “second class protection” from the FCA. 

“Far better scrutiny is required of the regulatory gap to ensure the financial services industry is meeting the needs of vulnerable customers,” he wrote.

An FCA spokesperson declined to comment. Existing regulation puts the onus on financial firms to identify and manage their third-party risks.

Last week, the regulator announced new guidance designed to improve governance and ensure customer funds are properly protected. The regulator also said firms should be more careful when selecting and appointing third-party service providers such as WCS, and were told to review their providers “as often as appropriate”.

FT : Johnson set to curb Huawei role in UK’s 5G networks

Johnson set to curb Huawei role in UK’s 5G networks
Ban to take effect within months after pressure from Tory rebels and Washington

Boris Johnson is expected to unveil plans this week to phase Huawei out of the UK’s 5G mobile phone networks following intense pressure from Conservative MPs and the Trump administration.

In a big U-turn, the prime minister is expected to ban the use of new kit made by the Chinese telecoms equipment maker in Britain’s 5G networks. The prohibition will take effect within months.

But Huawei is seeking an eleventh-hour meeting with Number 10 officials to plead with Mr Johnson not to fully kick the company out of the networks until 2025 at the earliest.

This would allow UK mobile operators more time to remove existing Huawei 5G equipment from their networks, and to switch to different suppliers.

Mr Johnson announced in January that Huawei would have a limited role as a supplier for the UK’s 5G networks, capping its market share at 35 per cent.

But his National Security Council will meet on Tuesday to review an official report that raises concerns about the company’s role.

The report by the National Cyber Security Centre, a branch of the UK signals intelligence agency GCHQ, was commissioned by the government after the Trump administration proposed new sanctions against Huawei that aim to cut it off from access to semiconductors made with US equipment.

British officials are concerned that, following the US sanctions due to take effect in September, it will be harder for the UK to vet any Chinese-made semiconductors used by Huawei.

Mr Johnson is also contending with a rebellion in the Conservative party over Huawei. Increasing numbers of Tory MPs are joining the Trump administration in claiming the company provides Beijing with an opportunity to spy on western countries.

The Conservative rebellion has been strengthened by China’s move to impose a tough new national security law on Hong Kong.

One well-placed backbench Tory MP said there was now “huge” opposition to Huawei among his colleagues. The MP predicted the government would lose any parliamentary votes about the company’s current role as a limited supplier of 5G kit.

The risk of defeat was highlighted in March when 36 Conservative MPs voted against the government as Tory grandees tried unsuccessfully to change the law to exclude Huawei kit from British telecoms infrastructure after 2022.

It was the biggest Conservative rebellion against Mr Johnson since his general election victory in December.

One government insider said Downing Street was concerned. “The government needs to placate MPs and the US sanctions is a route for them to do that,” added the insider.

Conservative opposition to Huawei has been spearheaded by the China Research Group, a Tory caucus led by Tom Tugendhat, chair of the House of Commons foreign affairs select committee, and Neil O’Brien, a backbench MP.

But Huawei, which insists it is a private company rather than an arm of the Chinese state, is seeking to push back against the Tory MPs ranged against it.

Huawei has hired several prominent public relations firms in London. Burson, Cohn and Wolfe is the company’s primary PR agency, along with Finsbury. Both firms are part of the WPP group.

Flint Global, led by Simon Fraser, former permanent secretary at the Foreign Office, is advising Huawei on policy, while MHP Communications is leading on parliamentary relations.

The company also has several influential City of London grandees on the board of its UK arm — including John Browne, former chief executive of BP, and Mike Rake, former chair of BT.

BT and other UK mobile operators have warned that curbing Huawei’s role in British telecoms infrastructure could delay the rollout of 5G as well as disrupt services on other networks including 4G.

Operators believe the government will not allow Huawei to retain a long-term role in 5G, and is now focused on trying to ensure it does not have to rapidly remove the Chinese company’s kit that has been used in some of its other networks.

One industry executive said the Johnson government, if it sought to restrain Huawei’s role in the UK, was making a decision based on politics rather than security. “The UK is taking a political decision,” said the executive.

Victor Zhang, a Huawei vice-president, highlighted the company’s ability to help the government with its efforts to improve telecoms infrastructure — the Conservatives promised at the last election to provide gigabit download speeds to every home by 2025.

“The UK government should not make a hasty decision [on Huawei’s role in 5G] without all of the evidence,” he said. “5G is vital to the UK’s ‘gigabit’ strategy and the future of the digital economy.”

FT : Merkel’s government pressed to release conversations with former Wirecard c

Merkel’s government pressed to release conversations with former Wirecard chief
Markus Braun and deputy finance minister Jörg Kukies had at least two interactions last year

Germany’s government is under pressure to disclose the details of conversations between deputy finance minister Jörg Kukies and former Wirecard chief executive Markus Braun, as the fraudulent collapse of the Bavaria-based payment processing company ripples through the country’s establishment.

One conversation between the two took place on the day of Mr Braun’s 50th birthday on November 5 2019. Mr Kukies also talked to Mr Braun on the sidelines of a public conference they both attended last September.

In a letter to the Bundestag’s finance committee seen by the Financial Times, Sarah Ryglewski, another of Germany’s six deputy finance ministers, argued that the content of the conversations could not be disclosed because of “secrecy protection interests”.

This legally means the information has been classified as material that, if released, could be “detrimental for the interests of the Federal Republic of Germany”.

Members of parliament will be able to access a summary of the conversations in the Bundestag’s Secret Record Office but cannot release the information to the public.

“This is just utterly unacceptable,” Fabio De Masi, a lawmaker with the leftwing Die Linke party, told the FT. “Given the scope and scale of the Wirecard scandal and the regulatory and political failure in handling it, the wider public has a fundamental right to know.”

Wirecard last month collapsed into insolvency after disclosing that key parts of its operations in Asia had been misrepresented for years and that €1.9bn in corporate cash “do not exist”. The company is sitting on €3.5bn of debt and its share price plunged 97 per cent, wiping out more than €12bn in shareholder value.

Mr Braun, who was briefly arrested and released on a €5m bail, is one of several former Wirecard executives at the heart of a criminal investigation into fraud, market manipulation and other crimes by criminal prosecutors in Munich. Wirecard’s former second-in-command Jan Marsalek is on the run.

German regulators including financial watchdog BaFin have been harshly criticised for their inaction over early warnings on Wirecard.

The Finance Ministry disclosed in the letter to the Bundestag that BaFin president Felix Hufeld only in mid-June got personally involved and had contacts with Wirecard chairman Thomas Eichelmann and Mr Braun’s successor James Freis.

“BaFin failed to take the many warnings over irregularities at Wirecard seriously for way too long,” Danyal Bayaz, a Green member of parliament, told the Financial Times. “Even if BaFin lacked certain regulatory competencies to crack down on Wirecard, it at least should have flagged this issue much earlier before it was too late.”

Asked by the lawmakers what BaFin could have done to uncover the Wirecard scandal earlier, the finance ministry defended the regulator.

“According to present knowledge, the Wirecard case at its core is a matter of criminal acts that include accounting fraud, forgery of bank accounts and [other] deliberate acts of deception. Criminal acts can only be uncovered by forensic and criminological investigation methods,” Ms Ryglewski argued in her response to parliament. She added that checks and balances with regard to financial reporting would be reformed in the wake of the Wirecard scandal.

Mr De Masi told the FT that such a reasoning came close to a “declaration of bankruptcy” of the regulatory authorities.