TechCrunch : Google’s Fitbit deal could avoid EU antitrust probe by agreeing not

Google’s Fitbit deal could avoid EU antitrust probe by agreeing not to use health data for ads

Google announced its plans to acquire Fitbit for $2.1 billion back in November. As of this writing, the deal has yet to go through, courtesy of all the usual regulatory scrutiny that occurs any time one large company buys another. EU regulators are often a key hurdle for these sorts of deals, and this time it may be no different.

Citing “people familiar with the matter,” Reuters notes that Google may be facing down some scrutiny in the form of an EU antitrust investigation if it doesn’t make some concessions. The heart of the concern here is a matter of health privacy. Fitbit — like many other wearable companies — collects a tremendous amount of health information from wearers.

Google, of course, is a company tremendously invested in data and advertising. Critics of the deal have suggested that purchasing Fitbit would provide yet another rich vein of data for Google to mine. As such, the deal could hinge on the promise that Google will never use health data to sell ads.

The stipulation is in keeping with a promise the company made when the acquisition was first announced, with the company’s head of hardware Rick Osterloh promising, “[P]rivacy and security are paramount. When you use our products, you’re trusting Google with your information. We understand this is a big responsibility and we work hard to protect your information, put you in control and give you transparency about your data.”

In a follow-up to this week’s reporting, the company noted that it believes the acquisition would increase competition. While Fitbit has a sizable footprint, Apple, Xiaomi and Huawei currently dominate the category, due in part to Fitbit’s late start in the smartwatch category. Google’s efforts to make inroads through Wear OS have largely come up short, though the company did also purchase a chunk of smartwatch tech from Fossil last January.

A spokesperson also attempted to put to rest potential regulatory fears, stating, “Throughout this process we have been clear about our commitment not to use Fitbit health and wellness data for Google ads and our responsibility to provide people with choice and control with their data.”

Regulators are set to decide on the deal by July 20. Google reportedly has until July 13 to present its concessions.

FT : Brevan Howard’s new chief on the revered hedge fund’s inner workings

Brevan Howard’s new chief on the revered hedge fund’s inner workings
Publicity-shy firm opens up under Aron Landy’s leadership

For 17 years, Aron Landy has sat at the heart of one of the world’s most successful, and most publicity-shy, hedge funds.

As chief risk officer and now chief executive of Brevan Howard, Mr Landy has worked closely with billionaire star trader Alan Howard at a firm that for years was regarded as the gold standard of macro trading, making billions of dollars in profits.

But while Brevan became one of the world’s biggest hedge funds, little was known of its inner workings. Even by the hedge fund industry’s standards, it avoided the limelight. For years no public photo existed of Mr Howard, while Mr Landy has remained remarkably low profile.

This interview with Mr Landy, who took the chief executive role from Mr Howard last October, marks an opening up by the firm and appears to signal a change of tone under his leadership.

“The fact that we’re having this conversation today is a demonstration that we are more transparent,” Mr Landy says with a smile as we chat over Zoom.

Dressed casually in a pale shirt, partly unbuttoned, the 58-year-old is measured, thoughtful and good humoured. Like most other chief executives, he has been dealing with the challenges of running the business while staff work from home during the coronavirus lockdown. He conducts the interview from a nondescript room in Brevan’s Baker Street office in London, having travelled in for the first time in three months after internet problems at home.

“Brevan Howard is a family, we care deeply about our business but we care deeply about every individual,” he says, conveying a gentler approach rarely associated with the hedge fund industry’s hard-nosed image.

Ensuring staff “could continue working and managing the money so we do the best for our investors, [and] at the same time felt safe, felt comfortable, felt connected and didn’t feel isolated, it’s been an enormous challenge”.

Despite the logistical headaches, Brevan has emerged from the coronavirus crisis as a big winner, gaining about 21 per cent net in the first half of the year.

“In January we started to get a bit worried about what was going on in China,” says Mr Landy, adding that problems caused by coronavirus meant there appeared “a reasonable probability” interest rates could be cut. But “at that time interest rate markets in the US were not assuming any possibility of cuts in the near term”. 

Brevan used futures and options to bet on falling yields. Large gains ensued as the US two-year Treasury yield collapsed from more than 1.4 per cent in mid-February to 0.23 per cent by the end of March.

The son of a university lecturer and a schoolteacher, Mr Landy became interested in finance after finishing a PhD in engineering at Jesus College in his hometown of Cambridge in 1986. “Big Bang” deregulation in the City of London that year “meant that there was heavy demand for people with maths and engineering skills”.

He first crossed paths with Mr Howard in the 1990s while a prop trader at Tokai Bank in London, where Mr Howard was head of interest rate trading. He describes Brevan’s future co-founder as “an incredible powerhouse” with “an incredible focus and attention to detail on trading”.

After a career break to teach bonds and interest rate derivatives at London Business School, he spent two years in the early 2000s trying to launch a hedge fund backed by Michael Huttman’s Millennium Global. “That was a very intense period in my life. We had to call it a day because we just couldn’t raise enough money.”

In 2003 he was reunited with Mr Howard at Brevan, which had launched the previous year. His role as chief risk officer was relatively unusual at the time, setting limits on traders’ positions so one individual losing bet did not blow up the whole fund. The approach helped Brevan make big gains in the financial crisis and again in the European debt crisis.

So how does Brevan handle its traders when they lose money? A wide spectrum exists in the industry, from big multi-strategy funds that automatically cut risk or fire a trader when certain thresholds are breached to firms with a softer approach.

“We’re somewhere in the middle,” says Mr Landy, describing the role as an “ongoing engagement” and pointing to two traders that the firm worked with to rehabilitate when performance went awry.

“It would be a terrible mistake to just sit the person in front of a computer and say, ‘here you go, we think you’re a great portfolio manager, do your thing’, and come back a few months later and find the person’s hit their stop-loss and has automatically been fired. That would be a terrible failure of management.”

But how did his role work with Mr Howard, the firm’s majority owner and effectively Mr Landy’s boss? Mr Landy admits courage is required, but adds that the “critical question” is the strength of the relationship between the two.

Mr Howard is “very interested in hearing other people’s points of view. Of course, in terms of markets he will take some and leave others, but in terms of risk, especially in his own portfolio, he has always valued a second opinion”, says Mr Landy.

Mr Landy, a keen cyclist who rides a Trek Domane, is open about what he calls Brevan’s “lean years”. Having never suffered a down year before 2014, its main fund lost money in three of the four following calendar years. Investors rushed for the exit, and the firm’s assets collapsed from $40bn to about $6bn.

It was a collapse, however, that the firm has survived, with assets now back up to about $10bn. Launching new funds for traders Alfredo Saitta, Minal Bathwal and Fash Golchin, as well as for Mr Howard himself, has helped spur Brevan’s revival in recent years, as did a highly profitable bet against Italian bonds in May 2018.

This year’s market volatility, which is easier for Brevan to trade than the becalmed markets of recent years, has also proved a strong tailwind. But, with bond yields having fallen so far and equities have recovered so much ground, has that opportunity now been and gone?

Mr Landy admits the rally in government bonds, which made Brevan so much money this year, has probably run its course, but argues that, having launched new funds, the firm is no longer as dependent on moves in short-term rates as it once was.

“It’s unlikely short-term rates will move for a while,” he says, “but it’s a very uncertain world and we have many drivers of returns.”

FT : US heads for fiscal cliff as stimulus fades

US heads for fiscal cliff as stimulus fades
Economists worry that political stand-off over extension of aid could damage recovery as pandemic rages

Peter Griesar, the founder of Brazos Tacos in downtown Charlottesville, Virginia, was so disturbed this week that the US might rein in its fiscal stimulus as the pandemic continued to rage that he fired off a tweet from his restaurant’s account.

The $600 per week emergency jobless benefits helping millions of Americans — and some 10 to 15 of his former employees — to stay financially solvent were not a “disincentive to work”, he wrote. The payments, which are due to expire this month if Congress does not act, were needed because of “demand suppressed” by coronavirus.

“We don’t see that changing for the rest of the year. Extend it,” he wrote, tagging Virginia’s two Democratic senators and the area’s Republican member of the House of Representatives.

Mr Griesar’s lament is echoed by many US economists, who decry Washington’s failure to renew the jobless benefits. These payments have been pumping about $18bn per week into the world’s largest economy since the crisis began. According to a study by economists at the University of Chicago and the National Bureau of Economic Research released this week, the unemployment support has even exceeded prior earnings for 68 per cent of workers, and doubled them for the lowest-wage workers.

While Democrats have pushed to maintain them until the economy improves, the White House and Congressional Republicans are resisting on the grounds that they discourage employment. The stand-off risks creating a dangerous economic cliff unless it is soon resolved.


Ernie Tedeschi, an economist at Evercore ISI, said jobs growth could “slow materially over the summer”, to the tune of 500,000 or 1m fewer positions between August and October, if the support is withdrawn.

“That wouldn’t flip the US from positive to negative growth if the recent pace of performance kept up, but it would be a big drag on activity in the third quarter in any event. And if Covid cases and reclosures continue to rise, unemployment [benefit] expiration would make a bad situation even worse,” he said.

The pain from the potential end of the unemployment benefits will be compounded by the disappearance of other elements of the $3tn in stimulus that was rapidly approved in March when the coronavirus crisis first hit the US. The impact of $1,200 cheques sent by the US Treasury to individuals earning less than $75,000 per year early in the crisis has dwindled. In addition, small businesses that received forgivable loans as part of a $520bn aid programme from the Trump administration will have spent a significant chunk of the money. Meanwhile, states and local governments that never received much support in the first round of stimulus, and are starting their fiscal years with gaping budget shortfalls, are pondering their own austerity measures, including temporary lay-offs or dismissals of public workers and tax rises.

Jay Shambaugh, an economics professor at George Washington University in the US capital, said that the massive stimulus enacted by the US in response to the crisis had sustained household incomes — and helped preserve spending — in recent months, but all that was now in peril.

“July will be lower than June [in terms of personal income] because we’ll be totally done with the direct cheques. But then August is going to be much much lower, unless they do something else [on jobless benefits],” he said.

“With rising infections and caseloads out there, and reopening scaling back in parts of the country, it seems that there’s a very good case to be made that the economy needs continued support,” said Mr Shambaugh.


After data on Thursday showed that 1.3m Americans were still applying for the first time for jobless benefits last week, Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG, warned: “Washington better get its act together and inject some more fiscal stimulus monies into the economy or business and economic activity could sink back closer to those crushing record lows made back in April.”

A compromise could still be in reach on Capitol Hill. But while Democrats are pushing for a wide-ranging package worth an additional $3tn, White House officials and congressional Republicans have suggested a more modest amount, worth $1tn, that could struggle to meet all the needs. The unemployment benefits may not end entirely but could be slashed, and some Republicans are suggesting that the income threshold for receiving a new round of stimulus cheques could be lowered to $40,000. “There’s a lot still to do and $1tn puts constraints on what’s possible,” said Mr Tedeschi.

Even senior Fed officials — who are normally reluctant to weigh in on decisions for Congress and the White House — have expressed concerns about waning fiscal stimulus.

“When the relief was passed initially, there was a thought about how long this was going to last, and as more information has come in, there’s reason to suggest this is going to last longer than that,” said Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, in an interview with the Financial Times.
“It’s only natural, given that possibility, to start thinking about what the next relief package should look like.”

As well as hitting consumer spending, the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus could also make it harder for low and middle-income families struggling because of the pandemic to pay rent and mortgages, damaging the housing market. The Trump administration has extended a moratorium on evictions and foreclosures introduced during the coronavirus crisis that was originally set to end last month, but only until the end of August. That is yet another economic cliff on the horizon.

Speaking to the FT, Mr Griesar of Brazos Tacos — whose business is generating about half of its pre-pandemic income from take-out orders only — worried about exactly this scenarios for some of the workers whose jobs he was forced to cut. “A lot of the people who work for me are young, and they live in houses with other people, who have also lost their jobs. So there could be cascading effects across households, where enough people have lost income that it becomes hard for them to make rent,” he said.

But his biggest disappointment is that the “amazing experiment” placing billions of dollars into the hands of people who “wouldn’t otherwise have it” was ending prematurely. “We’re really lucky to have the parts of the economy that we still do in place. A lot of that was because of this [stimulus] money,” Mr Griesar said.

Winding it down did not benefit anyone, he added. “It doesn’t help Trump to destroy the economy right before an election, it doesn’t help the Democrats either, I don’t think, because why would you want that to happen? There’s no upside”.

Barron's : How to Play Palantir Ahead of a Likely IPO

Secretive data-analytics company Palantir Technologies last week took the first step toward an initial public offering, filing confidentially with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The deal promises to be a doozy. Founded 17 years ago by a group of former PayPal execs, including current CEO Alex Karp and venture investor Peter Thiel, Palantir provides sophisticated tools to help companies, nonprofits, and government agencies analyze huge data sets. (The name is a geeky reference to magical stones in J.R.R. Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings books.)

The filing still has confidential status—there are no details on financials, bankers, or much of anything else. Unicorn tracker CB Insights lists Palantir’s value at $20 billion, but that dates to 2016, and there is no data on the price for the latest round; this month, Palantir disclosed a $961 million round that boosts venture capital raised to about $3 billion.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that Palantir had revenue last year of under $750 million, and that Karp has told employees the business is cash-flow positive, but the company isn’t commenting. There has been speculation Palantir could choose to do a direct listing, rather than a conventional IPO, but the company isn’t commenting on that, either.

As it turns out, there’s a nifty way for investors to speculate on the deal before it arrives. SuRo Capital (ticker: SSSS), a Nasdaq -listed business development company that invests in pre-IPO tech stocks, had 19% of its assets invested in Palantir shares as of March 31. SuRo has other attractions, too, with more than a third of its assets in a pair of edtech companies—Coursera and Course Hero—and 6% invested in neighborhood-focused social-media site NextDoor. The recent surge in the public-market value of edtech stocks Chegg (CHGG) and 2U (TWOU)—up 92% and 73% this year, respectively—bodes well for big education bets.

Like other closed-end fund structures, SuRo can trade above or below its net asset value. While the stock has been on a tear, as tech and the IPO market levitate, it sits at about a 20% discount to its underlying NAV, which the company recently estimated between $11.70 and $12 a share as of June 30.

BTIG analyst Mark Palmer last week repeated his Buy rating on the stock, lifting his target price to $12 from $10 to reflect SuRo’s increasing NAV. Palmer notes that SuRo traces its Palantir stake to a 2012 funding round that valued the company at $4 billion, or $2.80 a share. He notes that SuRo is carrying its stake at $5.29 a share and that Reuters has estimated Palantir’s current valuation at $10 billion to $12 billion, or $7 to $8.40 a share.

Think creatively, and you get numbers higher than that. If you assume Palantir had $750 million in sales last year, and use a 20% growth rate, that brings revenues to $900 million for 2020 and gives you a valuation in line with Big Data–analytics company Splunk (SPLK). But I suspect the market will treat the stock more like cloud-based software play Slack Technologies (WORK), which trades above 20 times sales, pointing to a valuation toward $20 billion. With SuRo trading at a deep discount, and other interesting assets in the pile, the stock is an intriguing bet on Palantir’s debut.


Say you’re an analyst for Momentum Securities, and you cover large-cap tech stocks. Imagine you began covering Amalgamated Widget in January when the stock was at $80, and you launched with a Buy rating and a $110 price target. Then the market decided Amalgamated is a work-from-home play, and the stock rockets to $150. So now you have a Buy rating but a target dramatically lower than the current price. What should you do?

Well, you have two choices. You can reduce your rating, if you are confident in your core earnings and valuation model. Or you raise your target, pound the table, and enjoy the ride.

This scenario plays out every day. One thing I’ve noticed in my daily coverage of tech stocks is how often analysts hike estimates to catch up with soaring stock prices. They give various explanations, some straightforward, like strong earnings or better-than-expected guidance. But others feel tortured. Valuations are suddenly based on earnings further into the future. Or peer stocks have rallied, and Amalgamated now looks cheap in comparison, which seems like a sort of stock-valuation Ponzi scheme. The bottom line? Investors have been willing to pay up for growth, and analysts have been slow to adjust.

But a closer look reveals startling data on the breadth of this phenomenon. Using FactSet’s database, I screened for stocks trading above their current mean analyst price target. Just two of 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average meet that criteria, and they happen to be the two biggest: Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT). For the S&P 500, the total increases to 100 of 500—20% of the index components trade above current targets. But get this: If you switch to the tech-dominated Nasdaq 100, 48 of the 97 stocks in the index are above target prices. That list includes not just Apple and Microsoft, but Amazon.com (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Netflix (NFLX), Adobe (ADBE), and PayPal Holdings (PYPL).

What does it mean? It’s just more evidence that tech stocks have reached ethereal valuations. No matter how much creative mental gymnastics the sell side uses to ratchet up targets, the buy side just keeps buying. Either targets mean nothing and analysts are too cautious, or investors are heading for a fall. Place your bets.

Barron's : The Market’s Reckoning Is Almost Here. It’s Not Just About Earnings.

It might not feel like it, but the S&P 500 index is flat over the past month. It ticked up 1.76% this past week, to close at 3185.04—less than five points away from its level on June 10. But that obscures plenty of volatility under the surface: The index has had larger daily moves than its overall monthly change in all but one trading session in the past month.

The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, has stubbornly remained close to 30 points, in the top 10% of historical readings. It’s a dynamic that Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere calls a “violently flat” market. The coming month should be just as violent, but there’s a good chance it won’t be flat.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 248 points, or 0.96%, this past week, to 26,075.30, while the unstoppable Nasdaq Composite rose 4.01%, to 10,617.44. The week was a microcosm of the past month’s market action, with stocks falling on days following record U.S. coronavirus cases and rising on less-bad days, including Friday’s gains on a positive incremental analysis of remdesivir data from Gilead Sciences (ticker: GILD). Through it all, tech shares continued to rise.

The long-tail implications of the coronavirus and its impact on the economy are significant and inherently unpredictable. Hence the violent daily market moves on what seems like at most incremental news. But the swings have been amplified by the vacuum of other factors to influence indexes and individual stocks over the past month. It has been a recipe for a volatile and sideways market in search of an overarching catalyst to determine its next long-term direction.

There’s a lot on investors’ calendars over the coming weeks and months. The days of nothing but the latest coronavirus or economic data swinging the entire market in one direction or the other might be ending.

First is second-quarter earnings season, which ramps up this coming week. Analysts’ consensus is for a 12% year-over-year drop in revenue and a 44% plunge in earnings for S&P 500 companies. But it won’t be that simple.

For starters, the second quarter was one without any historical precedent, and it’s fair to say that analysts had to plug in more than their usual dollop of assumptions when modeling out the period. Add in the fact that practically every U.S. economic data release over the past month has surprised to the upside, and perhaps earnings could do the same. As for whether or not that’s currently priced in by the market—or if investors will even care about results from such an outlier of a quarter—is anyone’s guess.

The bar is particularly high for booming tech companies. Shares of firms exposed to remote working, cloud software, and other tech trends have vastly outperformed the market in 2020. It’s time for them to live up to the hype and show the strength in their second-quarter results. For old-economy names, investors may judge them more on their financial guidance or any management commentary about their return to normal in the future, not what happened in the second quarter.

“Everybody pretty much got a free pass last earnings season in terms of sharing guidance,” says TD Ameritrade strategist JJ Kinahan. “I think people will demand more this time, at least some color on plans and expectations until the end of the year, if not concrete numbers.”

Either way, it’s certain to be an earnings season full of surprises, violent reactions, and challenged assumptions.

Also coming in the next couple of weeks should be greater clarity on the direction of the coronavirus outbreaks in several Southern and Southwestern U.S. states. Selective rollbacks of reopening measures like ordering bars and restaurants to shut down will have had a few weeks to work their way through, and lagging case and hospitalization numbers should begin to show their effect—or not. Either outcome has implications for the path and speed of the economic recovery, and thereby the market.

So does the next fiscal stimulus package out of Congress. As things currently stand, funding for enhanced unemployment benefits and the small-business Paycheck Protection Program expire on July 31 and Aug. 8, respectively. That has some concerned about an impending “income cliff,” in which millions of U.S. consumers’ earnings see a sharp and sudden drop.

Speaking on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the Trump administration and Senate leadership are discussing a new bill and singled out a period between July 20 and July 31 for passing it, pending an agreement with Congressional Democrats. That could be another potential hiccup or boost for the market in the next few weeks.

Once we’re through all that, we enter the thick of election season. The goings-on will garner plenty of attention, even if Kanye doesn’t opt to formally enter the race.

For much of June and early July, two sane and rational investors could have looked at the coronavirus outbreaks, equity valuations, and the prospect for the U.S. economy and come up with opposite—and equally valid—conclusions. Over the coming weeks, greater long-term clarity on one or more of those factors should emerge. Volatility will persist, as each factor could materially alter the prospects for the market. But stocks should at least gain some greater overall sense of direction.

Barron's : How Chip-Equipment Maker ASML Is Powering Past the Pandemic

How Chip-Equipment Maker ASML Is Powering Past the Pandemic

Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker ASML Holding saw its shares fall from €286.15 ($323.83) earlier this year to €185.90 in March while the world ground to a halt as Covid-19 emerged and spread.

ASML (ticker: ASML) is a leading manufacturer of €130 million lithography machines used by major semiconductor makers to print ever-denser circuits. However, the company issued a profit warning at the end of March, after completion of the installation of new equipment around the world was delayed by the pandemic. Demand for chips in cars also plunged. ASML then cut first-quarter guidance.

But ASML shares bounced back to €342.20 on strong demand, as sheltering-at-home workers turned to the cloud for storage and bought chip-intensive laptops.

The stock could rise further. Stéphane Houri, an analyst at broker Oddo BHF SCA has the stock as a Buy, forecasting an 11% rise to €380. “The stock has held up well in the crisis...we think that such an unusual stock warrants a ‘long-term and growth-oriented’ view,” he wrote in a May note.

Wells Fargo Securities analyst Joe Quatrochi set an ASML price target at €360. ASML fetches 39.4 times this year’s expected earnings, in line with peers such as Canon (CAJ) and Nikon (NINOY).

ASML, based in Veldhven, Netherlands, has a current market value of €144.1 billion. In January it posted €2.6 billion in annual net income for 2019, the same as the previous year, on net sales of €11.8 billion, up from €10.9 billion.

Chief Executive Peter Wennink tells Barron’s that the chip market has grown by 5% a year on average over the past 20 years, “but the factors driving this growth have radically changed,” he says. “In the 1990s, personal computers, both desktops and laptops, drove chip demand. In the first decade of this century, the market driver shifted to smartphones, which in turn led to the growth of data centers.

In 1984, electronics giant Philips (PHG) and chip-machine manufacturer Advanced Semiconductor Materials International created ASML to develop lithography systems for semiconductor makers. In 1995, ASML became a fully independent public company, listed on the Amsterdam and New York stock exchanges. Neither of its founding firms retains a stake.

ASML’s breakthrough came when it developed Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUL), which uses light with a shorter wavelength to etch smaller features, resulting in faster, more powerful chips. In 2010, it shipped its first prototype and remains a dominant player.

Post-pandemic, the business should benefit from growing demand for chips used in cloud computing, videogames, driverless cars, and the Internet of Things.

“We expect the semiconductor sector to rerate post-Covid-19 due to faster growth in areas like cloud computing and connectivity, as well as due to the P&L [profit and loss] and balance sheet resilience shown by the sector throughout the crisis,” wrote Liberum’s Jenardan Menon in a June note. “We expect the stock to rerate on this outlook of growth and margin expansion.”

Despite delays in shipping new equipment, ASML still managed to book €3.1 billion in new orders in the first quarter.

ING analyst Marc Hesselink wrote in a June note: “Other than some temporary supply-chain disruption, Covid-19 has had a limited impact on ASML so far. We now expect a rather strong second-half 2020 on the back of continued logic investments and more EUV deliveries.”

One area of uncertainty: one of ASML’s customers sells chips to China’s Huawei Technologies. The U.S. tried to limit U.S. companies from selling to major telecom manufacturer. And yet, for all of that, ASML appears to be well connected for further profit growth. B

Barron's : Nokia Stands to Gain From 5G Spending. And Its Stock Is Cheap.

Nokia Stands to Gain From 5G Spending. And Its Stock Is Cheap.

The story of Nokia, the Finnish telecommunications maker, has been a tale of disappointment over the past two decades.

Once the most valuable European stock, with a market cap that touched $300 billion, shares of Nokia (ticker: NOK) have fallen more than 90% since 2000, to $24 billion. Product stumbles and troubled acquisitions have left the company struggling to keep up with China’s Huawei Technologies and Sweden’s Ericsson (ERIC) in the market for wireless hardware.

Yet there are reasons to think the worst is over. Even in Finland’s frigid winters, the sun eventually shines.

Those reasons start with the speedy wireless standard known as 5G. Carriers around the world are in the process of shifting to the new technology, and they are reliant almost entirely on the three hardware rivals.

Huawei has been the global leader, but the U.S. government’s distrust of the company’s ties to the Chinese government is spreading. India, the U.K., and other nations have taken steps to stop local telecommunications companies from using Huawei gear over privacy and security concerns.

Other contenders include China’s ZTE (763.Hong Kong), which faces geopolitical challenges similar to Huawei, and Samsung Electronics (005930.Korea), which is well behind the leaders.

That leaves just the two Nordic giants. Both have deep historic ties to the global carriers. Telcos are pushing an initiative called Open RAN (radio access network) that would create a more open platform for building wireless networks. The initiative, however, is in the early stages and has yet to make a major impact.

Investors have been skeptical that Nokia can capitalize on the resistance to Huawei and reap the benefits of a 5G spending boom. Nokia trades for a little less than one times anticipated current-year sales and about 17 times current-year projected profits of 25 cents a share. This for a company with almost 100,000 employees—25,000 more than Cisco Systems (CSCO), which has twice the sales and eight times the market cap of Nokia.

Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold thinks investor sentiment should improve as Nokia’s hardware catches up to gear from its 5G rivals.

“This is a classic case of buy low,” he tells Barron’s. “The company is the subject of a lot of investor hate, and they’ve earned it. I’m angry, too.”

Leopold nonetheless has a Strong Buy rating and a $5.50 target on the stock, which recently traded at $4.12. He sees a bull case where the stock could more than triple.

In particular, he sees opportunity in Nokia’s overhaul of management. In March, CEO Rajeev Suri announced he would step down after six years at the helm. His successor is Pekka Lundmark, who has been CEO of Fortum, an energy company based in Nokia’s hometown, Espoo, Finland. Lundmark takes over on Sept. 1. Nokia also recently named a new chief financial officer and a new board chairman.

Leopold thinks the transitions could spur substantial change, noting that Nokia needs to focus on “customer and market diversification while improving profitability.”


Readers might remember Nokia for its flip phones. The current company has been significantly reshaped. Nokia sold the handset business to Microsoft (MSFT) for $7.2 billion in 2014. It then moved to consolidate its position in telecom infrastructure, buying Alcatel-Lucent for $16.6 billion in 2016. Integrating the Alcatel and Nokia product lines proved diabolically difficult, sucking up valuable management and engineering time when rivals were zeroed in on 5G.

As a result, Nokia fell behind Ericsson and Huawei. Nokia’s share of the mobile infrastructure market declined to 19.2% in 2019 from 24.4% in 2015, according to the Dell’Oro Group.

Now, the company finds itself in favor with the Trump administration, which has expressed interest in bolstering both Nokia and Ericsson in their competition against Huawei.

Attorney General William Barr has floated the notion of the U.S. taking a stake in Nokia, Ericsson, or both. The Wall Street Journal reported in June that one idea circulating was to prod Cisco to buy Nokia. That isn’t going to happen, however. Cisco would not want to more than double its workforce to add a business far less profitable than its own.

Still, some form of government help could be in the offing.

Hossein Moiin, Nokia’s chief technology officer until 2018, worries that Nokia and Ericsson are handicapped by small R&D budgets—spending, on a combined basis, barely half of what Huawei does. “We need to support these two entities to keep them financially viable,” he says.

With Daniel Goldin, who ran NASA from 1992 through 2001, he worked on a paper distributed at the White House about 5G. Moiin says Western governments should consider providing low-cost loans for equipment purchases, to compete with low-rate financing for Huawei gear from the China Construction Bank.

Fred Hickey, the editor of the High-Tech Strategist newsletter, has been skeptical about the recent tech rally. But he names Nokia as one of his few tech holdings, citing the management change as well as “the White House jihad” against Huawei.

“Though the recession will delay the wide-scale implementation of 5G,” he writes, “It’s coming.”

>>> US Close Dow +1.44% S&P +1.05% Nasdaq +0.66% Russell +1.70%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The S&P 500 advanced 1.1% on Friday, as investors rotated back into growth/value stocks following a positive remdesivir update. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.4%) and Russell 2000 (+1.7%) pulled ahead, while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%) underperformed but still closed at a record high. 

Prior to the open, Gilead Sciences (GILD 76.32, +1.61, +2.2%) said new remdesivir data showed an improvement in clinical recovery for severely-ill COVID-19 patients and a 62% reduction in the risk of mortality compared to the standard of care. The news turned equity index futures positive and caused a rotational trade back into economically-sensitive stocks after the open. 

The S&P 500 financials (+3.5%) and energy (+3.3%) sectors rose more than 3.0% amid expectations that these beaten-up sectors would outperform in a recovery. The health care sector (-0.2%) ironically closed lower while the information technology sector (unch) took a breather.  

A steady advance gathered momentum late in the day as many of the mega-cap technology stocks turned positive after a sluggish start. The momentum was strong with Tesla (TSLA 1544.65, +150.37, +10.8%), while Netflix (NFLX 548.73, +40.97, +8.1%) and Amazon (AMZN 3200.00, +17.37, +0.6%) benefited from price target increases at brokerage firms.  

Carnival (CCL 16.16, +1.58, +10.8%) shares received an additional boost after the company noted an increase in demand for new bookings in 2021, feeding the reopening trade and outweighing its mixed earnings results.  

U.S. Treasuries backed off from early morning highs following the remdesivir update, sending yields higher. The 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 0.16%, and the 10-yr yield increased three basis points to 0.63% after touching 0.57% in overnight action. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.1% to 96.63. WTI crude rose 2.1%, or $0.94, to $40.57/bbl.

Reviewing Friday's economic data:

  • The Producer Price Index for final demand, led by a 0.3% decline in prices for final demand services, decreased 0.2% m/m (consensus +0.4%) following a 0.4% increase in May. Excluding food and energy, the index for final demand decreased 0.3% m/m ( consensus +0.1%) after declining 0.1% in May.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that there are few, if any, inflation pressures at the producer level due to generally weak demand.

Looking ahead, investors will not receive any economic data on Monday, but many health care and financial companies will report earnings next week. 

  • Nasdaq Composite +18.3% YTD
  • S&P 500 -1.4% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -8.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -14.7% YTD

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • WDFC -4.2%, FC -1.5%, TSM -0.9%

Other news:

  • CNTG -9.2% (prices primary and secondary offerings of 3.5 mln shares of common stock at $14.00 per share)
  • UAL -4.3% (S&P downgrades to 'B+' on steep demand decline due to COVID-19)
  • KBH -0.8% (files for mixed securities shelf offering)
  • XLE -0.8% (trading lower with crude oil down 1%)

Analyst comments:

  • NBR -3.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at Altacorp)
  • BYND -2.6% (initiated with a Sell at Citigroup)
  • FSLY -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA Securities)
  • KEY -1.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities)
  • RDFN -1.2% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts)
  • MC -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler)