FT : Accor/IHG: checked out

Accor/IHG: checked out
The fallout from the pandemic will be ugly and consolidation is a smart move

When crisis hits, consolidation tends to follow. The stricken hotel sector could be in next in line. French group Accor is mulling a bid for London-listed InterContinental Hotels Group, reports French newspaper Le Figaro, although no approach has been made. In response, share prices barely budged. Investors are rightly sceptical. 

In some respects, the two businesses would be a good fit. Geographically they complement each other. A deal would catapult the combined company into top position, after trailing far behind leaders Marriott and Hilton. There might be benefits from combining reservation systems and loyalty programmes, though Marriott’s $12.2bn acquisition of Starwood in 2015 shows the scope for difficulties on that score. 

When it comes to financing, Accor boss Sébastien Bazin might be able to tap private equity, the industry where he used to work. But that will not make the numbers add up. Back on March 19, Accor’s market value was 27 per cent larger than that of IHG. Now IHG is a third bigger. Its paper is much more highly valued, with an enterprise value-to-2022 ebitda of 13 times, compared with 9 times for Accor, says Richard Clarke of Bernstein. Compounding the difficulties, this week S&P downgraded Accor’s credit rating to junk.

Of the two, Accor has been harder hit by the pandemic than IHG. Europe, its biggest market, was largely closed. Moreover, it owns more of its hotels than IHG does, even though it is moving fast to an asset-light model. Hotel owners are more vulnerable in a downturn than those groups which can collect management or franchise fees.

The fallout from the pandemic will be ugly. A tenth of business travel may have gone for good, Mr Bazin thinks. But the shakeout could drive more small players to partner with Accor — including the Travelodge hotel owners that want to change brands after a dispute over rents. The creation of a world leader in hospitality through a merger is probably not on the cards. But consolidation of a different sort should still provide opportunities to grow.

Business Of Fashion : If You Aren’t Already Selling Jewellery in China, Now Is t

If You Aren’t Already Selling Jewellery in China, Now Is the Time
China was driving the global jewellery market long before the pandemic. Now the clock is ticking for smaller players who want a piece of the pie before the big brands take an even larger share.

SHANGHAI, China — Cartier got a lot of attention — and flak — for its Qixi campaign over the past week. The ad sees a variety of couples, including two women as well as two men whose relationships are not overtly defined, enjoying one another’s company while wearing subtle pieces of jewellery.

The depiction of what many people believed to be same-sex couples in a Qixi campaign (the festival is a local variation of Valentine’s Day, so its messaging tends to skew romantic) was initially welcomed on Chinese social media, with Weibo users commenting on the refreshing change of imagery from a major jewellery brand.

Soon after, however, when still images for the campaign went up on Cartier’s Tmall site, a caption described two men pictured riding bicycles together as being father and son, to the widespread disbelief and disappointment of many online commentators.

Even for major international brands like Cartier, it’s tough to stand out from the crowd around heavily promoted gifting occasions such as Qixi, which this year falls on August 25. The noise around festivals and gifting has reached fever pitch in the year of the pandemic.

A consumer sentiment survey conducted in late April and early May by Platinum Guild International (PGI) and the Sinus Institute shows that gifting occasions in 2020 are particularly important for jewellery, as people want to show their appreciation for their loved ones in the wake of unprecedented health, social and political crises.

Even though the Cartier campaign seemed to confuse more people than it converted, the message it was trying to send (broadening the idea of gifting jewellery as exclusively a romantic act from a man to a woman) actually taps into broader trends in China’s jewellery market that will be vital for brands of all sizes to understand as they increasingly rely on China for growth.

There have been mixed messages emanating from the world’s largest fashion and luxury market about the recovery of consumption. Just last week, retail sales for July disappointed with a year-on-year modest decline of 1.1 percent. While sales of garments and footwear were down, jewellery was a bright spot, up by 7.5 percent over the same period a year earlier.

China was already the world’s largest jewellery market before coronavirus hit, accounting for 29.5 percent of all jewellery sales in the world last year, according to figures from Euromonitor, and as the first country to emerge on the other side of the pandemic (pending further unforeseen disaster) the country will continue to play an outsized role in any return to growth for the sector in the near future.

This is a sector that has changed dramatically over the past decade, with an influx of major international brands to the market a key driver. However, the changing nature of China’s jewellery market means that there should now be room for smaller brands to benefit too – if they play their cards right.

New Consumers Look for Meaning
“China is leading the recovery of platinum jewellery this year [and] among Chinese consumers, those between 20 and 40 years old have become major acquirers and influencers,” explained Zhenzhen Liu, director of global corporate marketing at PGI.

These consumers, particularly those in China’s first-tier cities, think about jewellery much differently from their parents’ generation, according to Daniel Zipser, a senior partner at McKinsey & Company who leads the firm’s consumer and retail practice in Greater China.

According to Zipser, jewellery has traditionally been a somewhat generic category in China, with consumers weighing (literally) the gold content of a piece as its single benefit as a long-term investment. This has begun to change in recent years, however, as brand stories and personal expression have become more important parts of the consumer journey here.

“I would call it a gradual change, but [since the pandemic hit] it's an accelerated gradual change, and a generational change,” he said.

According to PGI’s Liu, the unique positioning of precious jewellery as a category which has both lasting monetary and symbolic value in the eyes of Chinese consumers, makes it a popular choice as a meaningful gift, with 80 percent of Chinese respondents saying they planned to spend more on precious jewellery both for themselves and to give as a gift this year than before the pandemic, a far higher percentage than respondents in the other surveyed markets, which included Japan, India and the US.

“The personal meaning is the most important reason why consumers want to buy jewellery as a gift and maintaining value is the most important thing for those who want to buy for themselves,” Liu said.

It’s not just love-themed gifting that is proving popular. Earlier this year, a collection from market leader Chow Tai Fook found great success with a Gen Z-focused “good luck” platinum bracelet, which became a popular gift to give to young people undertaking China’s gruelling entrance exam, the gaokao.

“We have seen a similar thing with designs that symbolise love, best wishes, or positive meaning, they have been selling well in recent months,” Liu said.

These reasons for buying jewellery represent a relatively recent shift in the Chinese consumer psyche that’s important for brands to understand, because it opens a lot of doors for those who can cater to the needs of a new breed of jewellery consumer driving growth here.

Seizing the Online Opportunity
In essence, jewellery has become more like other luxury categories, a means for young consumers to express themselves and align themselves with styles and brand stories they feel suit their own lives and lifestyles.

This has been a major plus for international brands, including Cartier, Bulgari and Tiffany & Co., which have been able to capitalise on the appetite for brand stories with their own Chinese focus, complete with high-level digital campaigns (especially around this time of year) and flashy flagship stores across the country.

Smaller players, both domestic and international, have also rushed into China over the past three years, looking to connect with an audience that arguably would not have been as receptive to niche, independent jewellery brands before.

“China’s young generation have a global mindset and they care about the story and the meaning. I think when they consume, it’s not just about what looks good on them but it also makes them feel good inside,” said Ziwei Longhong, the founder of her own jewellery brand, Soft Mountains, which launched in 2017.

According to Ziwei, whose pieces are handcrafted by ethnic minority craftspeople, competition for attention has certainly increased over the past few years, but her brand has been able to continue to grow (Soft Mountains was picked up by Net-a-Porter in 2019 and Lane Crawford this year, creating a boost for the brand).

“You need to know your competitors and learn from your competitors and know your target customers [and how to] differentiate in such a crowded market. [But] I think when you are doing something from your heart, people can feel that,” she said.

Zipser agrees that although the jewellery space in China has become more competitive, China is a huge market with room for a number of new players, given they have a positioning and storytelling that resonates with at least one segment of consumers here.

“In China, given its scale and its importance to the luxury industry, there are no real white spaces or untapped opportunities left. Being in the market as it’s accelerating is a good thing. Yes, it's competitive and you have to think about differentiation, but that wouldn’t stop me from entering [now] if I was a foreign jewellery brand,” he said.

Though China’s jewellery market has traditionally been dominated by giant retailers, some with thousands of points of sale around the country (a difficult model for any new player to compete with) this has been upended by the pandemic, which has further accelerated a shift to online.

According to data from BigOne Lab, jewellery sales on key platforms such as Tmall and JD increased by 71 percent in retail value in the first quarter of this year, versus the same period a year ago. In China, this coincided with the worst of the country’s coronavirus-induced lockdowns and retail closures.

It’s now the norm, even at the top end of the pricing pyramid, for jewellery brands to have an e-commerce presence in China, with Cartier joining Tmall in January and Chaumet opening a WeChat boutique with its entire collection for sale through the app. Smaller jewellery brands would be wise to do the same.

Don’t Forget About the Boys
One consumer group underserved by jewellery brands in China remains young men, who have shown an increasing interest in accessorising with statement and fashion jewellery in recent years.

Though many international brands utilise male xiaoxianrou (little fresh meat) celebrities as ambassadors in the Chinese market (Kris Wu started this trend by fronting for Bulgari, with others, such as Lu Han for Cartier and Jackson Yee AKA Yi Yangqianxi at Tiffany following suit), the focus is more on using these heartthrobs to sell to women than to men.

“You have a young male consumer group that are very open to expressing themselves. Even five or 10 years ago, men were part of the purchasing process but less of the personal consumption. Recently we’ve seen that growing quite nicely, in beauty [and] fashion and I would be surprised if that doesn’t also apply to jewellery,” Zipser explained.

Young men in China have become accustomed to seeing other (usually famous) young men wearing jewellery and young women are more and more open to the idea of buying for their male partners on occasions like Qixi.

Though Qixi campaigns that ignore this reality feel a little old-fashioned, moving ahead with more cutting-edge messaging in China can be difficult too. In recent years, censors have blurred men’s earrings when they appear on television and much hand-wringing appears in state media over the “feminisation” of young men and what it means for society.

Daniel Zipser’s advice is to try and keep things simple, pointing out that there is an established route to market in China proving successful for other jewellery brands, so it makes sense to follow that.

“If you take a brand that is popular in their home market and you bring it here to Shanghai with a strong digital play combined with flagship store, it’s an attractive proposition,” he said. “It’s something brands are doing and will continue to do more of to take advantage of this opportunity.”

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down

In reaction to earnings/guidance:

  • EL -5.4%, NDSN -1.5%, SQM -0.9%, NVDA -0.6%

Other news:

  • CRK -6.3% (being atrributed to block trade pricing)
  • CWH -5.1% (indicated lower after its COO sold 12K shares worth ~$430K (transaction date 8/17))
  • AVTR -4.6% (announced secondary offering of 38.5 mln common shares),
  • VLRS -2.4% (announces capacity adjustments as a result of COVID-19; to fly approx. 75% of its capacity for September)
  • CALM -2.4% (prices secondary offering by selling shareholders of 6 mln shares of common stock at $39.00 per share)
  • ETSY -0.9% (prices $650 mln of 0.125% convertible senior notes due 2027 in a private placement)

Analyst comments:

  • SRPT -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse)
  • IRET -1.4% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James)
  • ABB -1.1% (initiated with a Sell at Berenberg)
  • BMRN -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup)
  • CCI -0.7% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo)
  • LINX -0.5% (downgraded to Reduce from Hold at HSBC Securities)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up 

In reaction to earnings/guidance:

  • LB +5.5%, SNPS +3.9%, BJ +2.8%, GFI +1.2% 

Other news:

  • ETM +8.8% (CEO/Chairman disclosed the purchase of ~78K shares)
  • ORC +5.7% (raised monthly dividend)
  • AMC +5.6% (following CEO interview on CNBC)
  • INTC +3.8% (initiated $10 bln accelerated share repurchase agreements)
  • SABR +2.6% (prices offerings of 3 mln shares of 6.50% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock at $100.00 per share and 35,714,286 shares of common stock at $7.00 per share)
  • SILK +2.3% (announced publication of ROADSTER 2 data; lightly traded)
  • XRX +1.9% (Icahn discloses the purchase of another ~726K shares worth more than $13 mln)
  • IGT +1.5% (announced long-term sports betting agreement with Boyd Gaming [BYD])
  • WGO +1.1% (announced 9% dividend increase; lightly traded)

Analyst comments:

  • DAN +3.8% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays)
  • ESTC +3.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)
  • SHAK +3.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush)
  • ELAN +2.7% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

  • Gapping up
    • AMC +7.1%, ORC +6.7%, SNPS +4.7%, INTC +3.6%, SABR +3.4%, IGT +2.5%, SILK +2.3%, LB +2% WGO +1.4%, ETM +1.4%, BABA +1.1%, GFI +1% 
  • Gapping down:
    • AVTR -7.6%, CWH -4.7%, VLRS -2.4%, CALM -2.2%, PBYI -1.6%, BYD -1.6%, NDSN -1.5%, TECK -1.4%, NVDA -1.4%

FT : Macro hedge funds enjoy unlikely renaissance

Macro hedge funds enjoy unlikely renaissance
Market volatility caused by the pandemic has been a boon for investors making big economic bets

Three years ago, Hugh Hendry, one of the UK’s highest-profile hedge fund managers, called it quits. A career forged making bold bets on global economic trends was faltering badly, taking the fun out of it for the 48-year old — and his few remaining investors.

In a final letter to them in September 2017, before swapping London for the Caribbean, Mr Hendry blamed massive central bank stimulus for choking off the volatility craved by the “pirates” of global macro investing, a prominent hedge fund strategy that involves wagering on the fate of nations and governments through bonds, currencies and commodities.

“The business was becoming joyless, and it felt like an impossible task,” Mr Hendry admitted in an interview from his bolt-hole in St Barts. Surfing actual waves rather than economic ones was therefore more attractive. 

But now volatility is back with a vengeance as the coronavirus crisis has engulfed the global economy. This has nurtured a renaissance for many macro hedge funds, with some notching up gains not seen since their 1990s heyday.


The main fund at Brevan Howard, the firm headed by billionaire Alan Howard, was up over 21 per cent in the first half of 2020; Paul Tudor Jones’s flagship fund at Tudor Investment Corporation has gained 8 per cent through July; and Chris Rokos’s Rokos Capital Management has climbed 24 per cent through to the end of July, according to investor documents and people familiar with the matter.

Caxton Associates has returned 31 per cent this year, according to investors, while a fund run by the firm’s chief executive Andrew Law is up 42 per cent. Meanwhile, Louis Bacon’s Moore Capital, which last year decided to eject the remaining external investors from its flagship funds after a long barren stretch, notched up a 25 per cent gain in seven months through July. The firms declined to comment on their returns.

Even Mr Hendry has felt himself sucked back in, dusting off his Bloomberg terminal and in May placing a bet on the gold price marching higher — once again a popular trade among macro hedge funds. “I’m back in the game, but I have no lust nor desire to manage money,” the retired investor stressed.

Soros Fund Management, the hedge fund still best known for “breaking” the Bank of England with its 1992 bet against the pound, has also tentatively returned to its roots. Although Dawn Fitzpatrick has gradually pulled money from the strategy since taking over as chief investment officer in 2017, this year she allocated some money to an outside global macro fund for the first time.

What no one disputes is that macro managers were in urgent need of the revival, given the exodus of investors many have suffered. “It was a frustrating time,” said the head of one global macro fund.

At London-based Brevan Howard, one of the industry’s best-known firms, assets collapsed from about $40bn in 2013 to $6bn, prompting speculation it could return money to investors.

“It was obvious that the returns being produced in our flagship fund at that time were not keeping our investors happy,” Aron Landy, its chief executive, said in an interview. “We knew that had to change.”


But he stressed that closing down or converting the firm into a family office to manage Mr Howard’s wealth was not an option. “It was never on the agenda,” Mr Landy said. “We always believed in ourselves,” adding that the firm reckoned its managers “would produce returns over time, especially when the market conditions were more favourable”.

If there is relief over the resurrection of macro investing, there is little consensus over whether it can last. Ms Fitzpatrick of Soros Fund Management is more sceptical.

The market environment that made the strategy profitable in the past — sparser and slower financial information, riskier economic policymaking and less efficient markets — was not coming back, she argued. 

“Investing is about having an edge, and there’s no asset class it’s harder to have it in than large, liquid macroeconomic markets,” she said. “The degree of difficulty in discretionary macro is high.”

Dave Fishwick, the manager of a macro hedge fund at UK asset manager M&G, agreed. Recalling how he used to have to wait for German economic data releases to arrive by physical mail back in the 1980s, he said: “I think it’s incredibly hard to argue [you have] informational edge in a world where everyone else has all the same information.” 

Just as a handful of major tech companies have powered US stocks to a new record high this week, the renaissance of global macro funds may also be overstated by the strong performance of a few behemoths.

While Tudor, Moore, Brevan Howard and Caxton have delivered so far in 2020, the flagship “Pure Alpha” fund at Bridgewater was down almost 14 per cent for the year through June, according to people familiar with the matter. The average global macro fund is flat this year, according to data from Aurum Fund Management, a firm that invests in hedge funds. 

Although that compares with an average decline of 2.8 per cent for the hedge fund industry this year, it is disappointing from an investment style that built its reputation on being able to benefit from economic and political turbulence. By comparison, global equities are flat on the year, while Bloomberg’s broadest bond index has returned 5.2 per cent. 

“There are some really good macro investors out there, and this environment is better than it’s been in a while, but I would caution against believing that every global macro fund is doing well,” Ms Fitzpatrick added.

Ms Fitzpatrick reckoned that global macro accounted for about a tenth of the hedge fund industry’s assets a decade ago, but that had now slipped to 6 per cent. Aurum estimated the combined assets under management of the 196 macro funds it tracked was $161bn at the end of June. This diminished heft had compounded the strategy’s problems, she argued.

“All the best macro hedge funds were great aggregators of information. They then come up with a non-consensus thesis, put on a position and become great storytellers. And then a huge wave of money would follow them,” said Ms Fitzpatrick. “But as capital has shifted into passive or systematic strategies, that has also dampened the opportunities.” 

The money Soros recently allocated to another global macro fund is therefore to one that blends the strategy’s traditional “discretionary” approach with a more computer-driven, quantitative one. Ms Fitzpatrick declined to name it, but people familiar with the matter said it was Symmetry, a $5bn Asia-focused hedge fund.

Not everyone believed that the opportunities would quickly fizzle, given the severity of the pandemic and the multitude of likely aftershocks.

The head of one macro fund said that, after “some spectacular market moves” earlier this year, there was still money to be made, for instance, in inflation-protected Treasuries. “You don’t need to make apocalyptic forecasts about inflation to make money on inflation,” the manager said, as even modest price changes could cause market ructions.

But Mr Hendry, for one, was sceptical that this was anything but a last hurrah. He argued that central banks had gone from “volatility machines” to hyperactive suppressors of economic and financial turbulence.

“If volatility continues to go higher then it would lead to a renaissance,” he lamented. “If not, then this is just a brief respite in the long, slow boring death of global macro.”

FT : Britain’s mysteriously robust housing market

Britain’s mysteriously robust housing market
Prices have risen and sales resumed despite a weak economic outloo

Britain’s housing market appears to be defying gravity. Though the country is experiencing its deepest recession on record, prices have remained robust and transactions have resumed. Expectations that interest rates will remain low have helped boost house prices alongside gold, tech stocks and many other assets. But the question remains for how long the UK’s property market can keep resisting economic forces pulling prices down. 

While Britain’s economy shrank by a fifth during the second quarter of 2020, house prices were about 1.7 per cent higher than a year before in July, according to the Nationwide Building Society. Official data is not yet out but transactions also appear to be on the rise: a closely watched survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed new instructions from sellers and inquiries from buyers were up sharply during July. 

Partly this reflects pent-up demand. Neither buyers nor sellers were able to act when the economy was under the strictest lockdown. House viewings were some of the first economic activity to resume but it takes a lot longer to buy a house than to order a drink from a bar. Many of those who could work from home saved money on their commute and other associated costs while noticing, once again, all the things they did not like about their house. The government too has added to demand by cutting the rate of stamp duty, a tax levied on transactions.

Generally house price drops have been both a cause and consequence of recessions: accounting for inflation, house prices fell by about 30 per cent during the 2008 financial crisis and never regained their pre-crisis highs, according to calculations by the Resolution Foundation think-tank. Consumer confidence is closely tied to the value of what is usually a household’s largest asset. Lower prices can also feed through into lower investment spending: mortgages represent the bulk of banks’ assets and construction is among the most volatile parts of national income. 

Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility, the country’s fiscal watchdog, forecasts that during this downturn prices will fall 5 per cent this year and 11 per cent in 2021 in its central scenario. Estate agents are likewise forecasting that a bust will follow the boom. The government’s furlough scheme, which replaced 80 per cent of eligible workers’ incomes, comes to an end in October, but as companies have already had to pay some of the costs of employing them since August, unemployment is forecast to rise for the rest of the year. 

The government banned evictions by private landlords early in the pandemic but that is set to end this Sunday. Combined with the fall in incomes, the move will leave a lot of landlords with empty, unprofitable houses. The stamp duty holiday, which has prompted many housebuyers to act quickly, comes to an end in March. 

On the flipside, Britain’s chancellor of the exchequer Rishi Sunak is likely to do whatever he can to stop house prices from plunging. The government has shown its willingness to subsidise the market, whether through the stamp duty cut or the earlier help-to-buy equity loan programme. More affluent areas had been expected to remain resilient — though with even white-collar jobs now facing a higher prospect of unemployment these might yet see similar falls in prices to regions catering to workers in more insecure jobs or to those who rely on high loan-to-value mortgages. House prices may be stable for the moment, but buyers are still plunging into the unknown.